I’ve had some questions about how far I think they will get and when I think referrals will arrive. Here are posts of the analysis I did for those questions.
How far will they get?
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/04/further-analysis/
When will they arrive?
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/09/when-will-the-next-batch-arrive/
If they only get to the 7th then I guess I’ll have to relent and change my definition of a bad case scenario. I was hoping month before last was an aberration.
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May 31st, 2007 at 8:40 pm
Thanks RQ
May 31st, 2007 at 9:18 pm
If referrals were going to be coming Monday wouldn’t we have heard something by now about them being mailed? Or at least heard something, instead of all this silence?
May 31st, 2007 at 9:47 pm
I must piggyback on CTG’s comment. “Thanks RQ”. You are doing a fantastic job and we appreciate it. To everyone out there keep in mind, you can not accurately predict events based on rumors, but I think that RQ and Mods do one hell of a job with what they have to work with and more times than not, they are in the ballpark. Sit back and enjoy the ride even though it may be rough riding at times.
June 1st, 2007 at 2:28 am
Wow! That “bad case scenario” is looking better all the time :0
June 1st, 2007 at 7:12 am
It’s night time in China…shouldn’t we have heard something by now if we are going to see referrals on Monday?
June 2nd, 2007 at 4:27 pm
perhaps the batch has not been mailed because there are too few dossiers at the moment to make it worth the usual process/mailout.
By the way, if the cutoff really is Nov 3, that would essentially be the closure of the program (these weren’t dossier-heavy days like the 2-day october batch). So the 7th seems most likely if the program is going to continue. Which CCAA has said it is.
The 7th is a further slowdown, though–which is either fewer NSN or more domestic adoption–if the latter, that could be a rapidly rising trend and result in a slower and slower pace every month–as well as domestic adoptions of all but those with minor or mahor SN and those deemed less visually attractive. (Which is what people have been reporting a rise of for many months–minor SN appearing in NSN). Hmmm…