Another little Exercise
We’ve done this exercise a few times before but it’s been a while and it is time to do it again.
I believe that the best predictor for those who are within one to three months of a referral is still the polls. Only by knowing which days are heavy and which days are light do I think we can come close with a short term prediction.
However, for those who are more than six months away from a referral I believe that days referred per month is probably fairly accurate, or as accurate as we’re likely to get for a long term projection. It doesn’t work if you are close because log in days are not uniform as far as number logged in per day. But if you are far enough out then an average will get close.
First let’s look at the historical record. I’m hoping the past few months have been an anomaly, so I’m really hoping it is safe to look at the 12 month numbers for the longer term. But, since we know November is huge, for the shorter term it might be safer to keep that number below ten.
For the very longer term, with LID’s in the end of 2006 and beyond, I’m really hoping we can hope to see an average of 15 or even 18 days between now and then. I have to be honest though and say that this is counting on there being a decent amount of attrition.
Which brings us to the actual exercise. The numbers in the column headers in the table below represent the number of days the CCAA will refer on average. The labels in the first column represent the month referrals will arrive. The dates that populate the table represent log in dates.
The pink squares are to be used as an example if your LID is January 10th. I’ve only used the three columns that I think are the most likely possibilities.
The blue squares are to be used as an example if your LID is April 27th.
The lavender squares are to be used as an example if your LID is September 20th. Again, I’ve used the columns that I feel are most likely for that date. And, again, in order to get to the bigger numbers I think there has to be a good bit of attrition. I’m seeing a lot of attrition in those receiving referrals now, but who knows whether that will be true for those who knew the wait would be long when they got started.
Which column should you use? That’s up to you. I’ve tried to give an indication of what I think, but your guess is probably as good as mine. And if you need to hope for the best in order to stay sane, then do so. If on the other hand you prefer to give yourself an end date that’s likely to be worse than reality, then do so.
Or if you are like me and just want some kind of window to set your sights on, then this works for that as well.
And finally, to keep people from having to tally in their heads how long the wait may get, I’ve put together a spreadsheet that used the dates from the above spreadsheet but shows the amount of time people will wait in months. I’ve highlighted the same cells for consistency.
This also tells us that if they can average 18 days (meaning there will have to be a lot of months with more than 18 days between now and then), then the wait will top out somewhere around 32 months.
If they can only average 15 days then the wait will top out closer to 38 months.
I did not stretch these tables out that far, but at 12 days May 25th would be referred in May of 2011, with a wait of 48 months. I didn’t stretch it out that far because I just simply cannot fathom that. But, since the preceding 18 months average 12 days I know people will be curious to see what it is.
Next post – what would have to happen for the wait to speed up.
June 19th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Thanks for this RQ. I do think that we should be prepared for another round of smaller referrals before this huge month of November finishes up though. Hate to be a downer but 6 days worth = 114 files. So we might do 4 days this time around, then do a whopping 9 days in August and maybe 3 days in September. Yes, the average will appear higher but I think we should be prepared to see even smaller numbers than the 5 days on your chart. Oooooh, I hope I’m wrong!!
June 19th, 2007 at 11:45 am
THanks RQ. I have always been confused by everyone (even the 07 log ins) that they have been given a 3 year wait. Using your 12 days analysis I am looking at 29 months wait. How can CCAA then suggest that it can one year in 6 months so that the 07 wait only 36 months. Poor everyone stuck with this wait.
June 19th, 2007 at 11:46 am
EEk. There goes my last hope of a 2008 referral (LID Oct 2006). With your best case scenario, which I can’t bring myself to believe, I’m still in January 2009… so, looking more and more like mid-late 2009 is most likely. Sigh.
Thanks for the numbers! I’d much rather know the ugly truth than a pretty illusion.
N
June 19th, 2007 at 11:47 am
Just a reminder, my short term predictions can be found here:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/06/07/analysis-4/
June 19th, 2007 at 11:56 am
Thank-you RQ for this comprehensive analysis. I have a question though..I am confused how attrition will improve things at all in terms of wait times for NSN?..I am assuming that most people are switching from NSN to SN…However, for those who remain in the NSN line, I wonder if it really means things will progress faster especially if the percentage of children referred for SN continues to increase, and the percentage of children referred each month in the NSN category continues to decrease. OF course if attrition also includes a mass exodus out of the program, I understand how it might result in wait times not increasing as dramatically as they have been over the past year.
So I guess my real question to you..do you think the attrition is mainly to SN or right out of the program? Right now my perception is that it is to SN. So even for the month of November where attrition rates are somewhere between 15-20%, I don’t perceive this will change wait times for those of us with November 2005 LID…because I think that people with LIDs in 2006 in the SN category will get their referrals at the same time those of us in the NSN program will get ours.
Don’t get me wrong, I think its great that more children with SN will get adopted faster. I have no problem with this…its just I am not sure how attrition in general will help those in the NSN category. This is another reason I also believe there must be an ‘unofficial quota in place’ for both categories. Of course, just my own opinion about the quota.. I have no knowledge of this…Thanks for doing all that you do…
June 19th, 2007 at 11:58 am
Whaaaaaa! Will this adoption ever happen? I really appreciate your data, RQ. Even if it is so painful to read, am glad to see it in black and white (and blue, pink and purple). It seems like each day I stand in the shower calculating all these scenarios, but confuse myself once I get past my 10 fingers of counting. Thanks for the reference, so my brain can at least have a rest from calculations.
June 19th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
I did a series of posts about attrition
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/03/attrition-2/
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/04/attrition-the-results/
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/14/attrition-logic/
The last one does most of the explaining, but the other two led up to it and helped lay the groundwork for the final post.
June 19th, 2007 at 12:06 pm
Thanks RQ..this just reinforces my believe that a quota exists for both the SN and NSN program….Thanks again.
June 19th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
RQ, thanks for putting this all together again. This gives
most us a good idea of where we stand in the process.
Ladybuginnebraska
http://www.ost.redthreadkids.org
Lid 11/18/05
June 19th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Oh boy. RQ, I REALLY love all the work that you do to keep everyone up on what’s going on. I am just SHOCKED, though, at looking at this chart. Wow. Mr. U and I can start our paperwork for #2 in January. When will WE get our daughter IF CCAA matches 15 days a month (and that’s a BIG “if”)- 2012????? HOLY COW!!!!!!!!!!
I am REALLY REALLY praying that CCAA will start doing more days per month. I just can’t get over this wait. Good grief.
Thank you, again, for sharing this RQ. I really do appreciate getting a “real” look at the wait.
His,
Mrs. U
LID 9-12-05
referral 1-4-07
“Gotcha” Day 2-25-07 for Elizabeth
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
June 19th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
For people LID after May of ‘07 I think it’s probably safe to figure that the CCAA will do a month or two of LID’s every month once they get beyond the bubble of the people getting in under the rule changes. But I have a feeling the months of April and May of ‘07 will look worse than the current month of November looks.
Really, that’s so far away though, who knows?
June 19th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
I was figuring pretty much what you said so I am not surprised or disappointed.
I did get a little sad when I saw the 9day average would mean I would miss the cut off between 2008 and 2009 by one day. I know these are averages and not even probable but it was sort of a “my luck runs that way” kind of thing.
Thanks for all your hard work.
June 19th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
wow RQ – thanks so much for all your efforts, to help us get a grip on things. Just last night, DH was saying how he was really hoping we would be “wheels down” in 08. I’ve been telling him no way for us to get a referral in 08 (Nov. 06 LID). Now I hope we are “wheels up” 09.
June 19th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
We are right there with you manda LID 11-06.. This is going to be a very LONG ride..
June 19th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
I just hope that after November we see some type of slight pick up of referrals. I know it won’t be great, but if we continue at this rate……April 06 won’t see referral in 2008. I honestly don’t think I can continue after 2008. We are about insane now.
June 19th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
I’m thinking out loud here, wondering how the Olympics are going to factor into all these timelines. We need to go through Beijing to process our adoption, so maybe I should be adding an extra three months. Ugh. I certainly hope not.
June 19th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
I think that if you should be getting your referral around or just after the time of the Olympics then you’ll see a delay of some sort.
However, I believe that there are going to be the same amount of babies available through those months even if they don’t get matched, so in the long run I don’t think that any time spent not working by the CCAA will have an effect – they’ll just match the babies later, when they begin working again.
June 19th, 2007 at 2:59 pm
Thanks RQ. With a June 06 LID it looks I won’t have to worry about the Olympics getting in my way anymore.
June 19th, 2007 at 4:05 pm
I remember when I first heard about the Olympics. Even though some of the current delays had started to occur by then, I thought there was no way we’d pushing it for August 08. It seemed so far off. It still seems far off but, unfortunatley, so does our adoption. We are a mid-Jan. 06 LID and I’ve recently come to terms with the scary fact that we may be dealing with the delays, etc., around the Olympics. Who would have thought??????????? AAAAAHHHHH!
June 19th, 2007 at 4:21 pm
I could be an optimist or crazy but I don’t see how we can use this logic. I always recall the tag line when I buy mutual funds that says “Past Performance is not indicative of future results”. When we started our process it was supposed to take 12 months. It took 6. Now it’s taking a long time but who is to say that will not change. Applications are falling significantly for many reasons. China is opening up more orphanages, etc.
I know it is hard for those on the bad side of this wait-time yo-yo but I cannot believe that it will be 4 years to referal for a LID of May 2007.
June 19th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
This post is scary and heart-wrenching but definately helpful – thanks RQ.
June 19th, 2007 at 4:36 pm
drdoo – I know there are people who keep assuring everyone the wait has gone up and down before. But in the past when the wait has come down, people were aware that it was going to happen, and why. We don’t have that this time.
chinaadopttalk.com/…the-difference-in-2001-&-2007/
June 19th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
RQ, I always look forward to your analysis and number crunching. No surprises with the new chart for us. At this point with a 12.5.05 LID, I am holding on to the hope that we get DD#2 by end of this year! I truly believe it is still a good possibility. Who would have thought with 28 LID days to go, it would take 4-6months. It’s always 4-6 months! Nuts and thanks again for breaking the wait down for us.
June 19th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
Hi, i am not following these charts. I have a LID of 4/7/06. Right now my wait is at 14 months. I have tried to quess when we will get our referral, and i am hoping no more than 8 more months. Does that sound too far away? Am i guessing in the right time line? With the agency i have there are still 7 groups ahead of mine. So i have no clue.. Thanks for all your help. I check out your web site daily… Thanks. Laurie
June 19th, 2007 at 7:29 pm
Hello,
I am having difficulty figuring out a time frame of when my referral might be–sorry, Rumor Queen, I’m not following these charts but I so apppreciate that you are tabulating this! I am not logged in yet, but should be by August. Would it be safe to say that I am looking at a four year wait at the worst? Three year wait at best? ANY help would be appreciated! My agency is saying that they just can’t make any predicitions (and also keep repeating that the current wait is 16 months!) but it would be great just to have some realistic dates in mind. Thanks so much!! Angela
June 19th, 2007 at 7:30 pm
I agree with optimism. Not always have clients known about the speed up…our dear friends had a LID in late 2004, and were told 12 months. At the 6 month mark, they took a vacation and were called by the agency…where are you, you have a baby!?!? They were shocked!
June 19th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
lhprecmom,
We have a 4/10/06 lid – very close to yours – and from the charts with 5 days we’d see a referral in Jan ‘10, 7 days-April ‘09, 9 days-Nov/Dec ‘08, 12 days-July ‘08, 15 days-April/May ‘08, and 18 days Feb/March ‘08. So in order to see a referral in 8 months, China would have to refer aprox 18 days every month…Hope this helps!
bees
June 19th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
RQ –
You are amazing and very very helpful. Do you have any stats for SN wait times? We just returned with our second daughter and are exploring the possibility of a SN/Waiting Child for our third adoption. This is all new to me, so I apologize if you have addressed this issue.
Thanks,
Joan
http://www.chinamomsonline.com
June 19th, 2007 at 8:35 pm
Hi RQ
I am new to this so please bear with me. I was looking at referrals in the past and referrals for 3/27/06 and 4/27/06 only included a few days each. So if I am reading things correctly, this has happened before and then they picked back up again. We have a LID of 4/20/07, so I am just holding out hope that this is just temporary.
Thanks!
June 19th, 2007 at 8:50 pm
Bees,
So what your saying is it could take up to the year of 2010 with the LID of 4/7/06.. That would be 4 years. I am sorry, but that just seems so so off. I cant think of how many times will our paperwork need updating, and the cost of all these updates and refingerprinting. We just went for our 2nd time at reprints just this month, on the 7th. I couldnt imagine going through this year after year. Yeah our agency told us we would have our daughter already (when we applied it was september 05) and they said you will have your baby this time next year. Well they were way off. Believe me, i am not blaming anyone, it just goes to show you, you have no idea what is going to happen. This just gets so darn depressing. This was going to be our first child. Then out of no where we got this little five year old, one month after we put in our dossier. A blessing? I dont know. But it sure makes the time fly knowing you have a little ray of sunshine calling you mommie, and loving everything you do and wants to be just like you. It does help… I am thankful for her……. Thanks… Laurie
June 19th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
ohhhhhhhhhh, thud,…. that’s me falling off my chair. This is just so sad.
All I ever wanted was to be a Mom. I do believe that everything that has ever happened to me has turned out exactly as it was supposed to, the good, the bad, need I say more? But this, I just can’t grasp this.
To me, a March ‘06 lid seems like it should be so close. Truthfully, it’s the not knowing that is driving me insane, a common bond I share with you all.
Thanks again R.Q. I’m draggin my sorry a _ _ to bed.
Shelley