A speed up - will it happen?
I don’t think I’m covering any new ground with this post. But I’ve seen people trying to work through some of the various theories out there and I figured we might as well put them all in one place.
Before we talk about what would have to happen in order for things to speed up, we must talk about why things slowed down. There are a variety of theories:
- There are no longer that many NSN orphans in China.
- There are plenty of orphans, but problems getting them made paper ready.
- The CCAA has a yearly ceiling that they cannot go over, and that ceiling was lowered last year and then lowered again this year. The ceiling also includes SN children, so the more SN adoptions that happen the less NSN matches can be made.
- The Chinese government wants to make the world think there is no orphan problem as we lead up to the Olympics. So they empty the orphanages out into foster care and say there are no more orphans. The long wait becomes proof that they have solved their orphan problem, since this proves there aren’t enough babies to adopt out.
Now, let me go through each of these.
1. There are no longer that many NSN orphans in China.
2. There are plenty of orphans, but problems getting them made paper ready.
3. The CCAA has a yearly ceiling that they cannot go over, and that ceiling was lowered last year and then lowered again this year. The ceiling also includes SN children, so the more SN adoptions that happen the less NSN matches can be made.
4. The Chinese government wants to make the world think there is no orphan problem as we lead up to the Olympics. So they empty the orphanages out into foster care and say there are no more orphans. The long wait becomes proof that they have solved their orphan problem, since this proves there aren’t enough babies to adopt out.
However, if they want to be able to point to the actual wait as proof that there are no more orphans (and thus, no more abandonment problem) then we would not expect to see a change until after the Olympics.
And then there is the possibility that with the Olympics being China’s “Coming Out” Party, that things may never go back to the way they were. China will want to maintain the perception that they are now a First World Country and that they can “take care of their own”. Meaning they will want to keep up the illusion that there are no more abandonments and no more orphans.
So, back to our original question: Will things speed up?
I do not think that China just suddenly one month ran out of babies. They went from referring about a month every month to referring half months, and then went down from there. One would think that this would have been more gradual and not so sudden if it weren’t an artificially constructed “problem”. Take a look at the bottom table on this page to see how quickly the slowdown happened.
I believe that some orphanages do have mostly SN babies and hardly any NSN babies. I believe that some areas of the country are more prosperous and that there truly are less orphans. A wonderful thing.
However, I am also aware of orphanages that are full of babies. And I’m aware of orphanages that have a small percentage of the babies now that they had years ago, but when families ask about how many babies are in foster care it brings the numbers back up to the same neighborhood they were in four or five years ago.
This means that I think there are babies available, and thus I believe a speed up is possible. I don’t believe it is probable, but I do believe it is possible.
If we are dealing with a quota, or with issues around the Olympics (and this could very well be that both of these are the case) then unless the theory is correct that they are only interested in published numbers, I don’t think we can hope to see a speed up anytime soon. If ever.
And if that is the case then we are looking at more of the same until we reach the May or June of 2007 families and there are hardly any more families in line waiting for a referral.
That’s not to say we’ll stay at 2 and 5 and 9 day batches. Once we are through November we should be able to get through more days than that at a time. Plus, I also believe things will pick up because of the attrition issues. Some people will completely pull out of the China program, some people will have a life circumstance that forces them to pull out. And some people will move to SN, which has likely slowed things down more on the front end but then could allow for a slight perceived speed up in the long run.
June 20th, 2007 at 6:36 am
The idea of quota is interesting. My agency yesterday told me that there absolutely is no quota, simply not enough paper ready babies. This agency feels things will speed up once November is through. They are reporting a 90% drop in DTC since the May rules took effect and about a 1% attrition rate of people pulling out for another country. They thought this number is closer to 20% in the USA. This agency stronly maintains there is no quota.
June 20th, 2007 at 6:44 am
I agree, there is no “quota”, but many agencies state that the CCAA has confirmed to them there is a “ceiling” or has just gone around the question in a way that tells them there is. I know, it’s a difference in terminology, but agencies report if they ask about a quota they are told there is not one, but if they ask if there is a limit to the number of referrals the CCAA is allowed per year or per month they get a response that tells them this is the case.
June 20th, 2007 at 7:12 am
Thanks RQ, good to see all the speculations be clarified. I’m just curious if we will ever find out what was true and what was not. My feeling is that the CCAA is working towards the goal to refer a month per batch again when people LID after May 1,2007 are next. They obviously have several years to get to that point.
June 20th, 2007 at 8:28 am
The linked chart is telling IMO. If the CCAA had wanted the world to perceive that there simply is a lessening need for IA, they might have wanted to engineer the slowdown more gradually. The program was chugging along and all of a sudden went over a cliff in late ‘05. Doesn’t make much sense if the hope is that the world will believe fewer abandonments/more domestic adoption have lengthened the wait times.
Thanks for the coherent summary of all the theories afloat, that table says it all to me.
June 20th, 2007 at 8:43 am
First time poster here!
With an LID of 4/15/07, it’s disheartening no matter what theory may be correct. My heart has been telling me that our wait will not be more than 2 years, but my brain is beginning to beat my heart into submission. Three years. Egads…
June 20th, 2007 at 8:57 am
When I picked up our SN daughter last July in China I visited her orphanage although she had been living in a foster home. She was from Jiangsu province.
I was told that they had 200 kids and that they only had 2 NSN children. What time frame were they covering with that statement I have no idea. They said that of the 2 NSN children 1 was adopted domestically and one internationally. They also asked me why did I think that they have so many more severe SN children now coming into the orphanage than they had in the past years.
June 20th, 2007 at 9:03 am
because the words “speed up” and “possible” can play some mighty strange games in the minds of waiting parents (no matter how clear you are, RQ, and you are plenty clear here), I just wanted to remind WPs that CCAA on recent visits has told government-agencies in at least 3 countries that the wait will reach 3 years.
If it’s heading on 2 years, and going to 3, that points to a continued slow pace for referrals for everyone logged in now.
So even if a speedup up is possible, and RQ makes a solid case for that, CCAA is telling us, this month, that the referral rate will slow at least 30% further. I thin k it’s important for waiting parents to hear that message–because a lot of us heard the 24-months-by-2007 and stuck our heads in the sand and plugged our ears, and lo, it came to pass ….
June 20th, 2007 at 9:08 am
RQ..thanks for this. I agree with CWS..the chart indicates it all..I strongly believe there is a ‘ceiling for IA’ in China. I think I even understand it (does not mean I agree with it). I trully hope that things to not remain at 2-6 days worth of referrals each month…Its painful for everyone…Part of me wonders if they are doing this to get more and more people to drop out…or to switch to SN since clearly there is a need for families in this group…
June 20th, 2007 at 9:13 am
Absolutely threebluesteps , I said I don’t think it’s probable, just that it is possible.
For the record, I do not think they will begin doing more than a month at a time until they have completed the bubble of people getting their dossiers in by May 1st.
June 20th, 2007 at 9:49 am
Help! I am trying so hard to understand the chart from yesterday, but I just don’t. I read through the comments hoping they would help. My LID 10/30/06. Hope I don’t sound crazy for not being able to understand!! :) Thanks RQ.
June 20th, 2007 at 9:54 am
I think the scary thing is that for people with an after late 06 a 3 year wait would absolutely require a speed-up and as RQ has pointed out, this may not be possible. When I attended my agency’s info session in June 06 they stated that the CCAA had told them that there is in fact a quota - and that it was the quota that was slowing things down. However - the number my agency’s director gave for the quota (10K babies per year) now seems overly optimistic - so I’m really not sure what to believe.
June 20th, 2007 at 9:58 am
I think you are not mentioning a key component to the slowdown–the increased number of prospective parent dossiers. Had the number of prospective parents remained steady, instead of skyrocketing in 2005, there may have been a slowdown, but not as dramatic.
Perhaps you are putting this in the “attrition” category and dealing with it separately, but I think many people who talk about a speed-up are assuming there will be a decrease in the number of parent dossiers once we get through Nov or Dec 2005.
June 20th, 2007 at 10:12 am
I was under the (false) impression that SN didn’t count under the same “ceiling” as NSN. It makes me sad to find out otherwise. SOOOOOO many babies!!!!!!!!!!
When we were at our daughter’s orphanage in early March this year, there was only about 50 babies. I learned from a mother that adopted from this same orphanage 3 years ago, that when they got their daughter, there were over 200 babies and there were 2 babies per (small) crib!!! I have heard nothing about foster care from that orphanage, but I can’t help but wonder if that’s where all the babies are as they get ready for the eyes of the world to be on China during the Olympics.
His,
Mrs. U
LID 9-12-05
referral 1-4-07
“Gotcha” Day 2-25-07 for Elizabeth
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
June 20th, 2007 at 10:19 am
I may be in the minority in this opinion, but I can truly see China adoption slowly edging toward SN only….and I am completely OK with that. We are adopting an SN child, which probably fuels that opinion, however, seeing orphanages (and lists) full of SN kids that sit by and watch the “healthy” ones leave in droves makes my heart hurt.
I know that SN is not the right fit for every family, but I have a feeling that there will be a day that those who specifically want NSN will need to find a different program.
June 20th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Opps - sorry that should have read:
I think the scary thing is that for people with a late 06 or 2007 LID a 3 year wait ….
June 20th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Hi scsunshine,
The chart from yesterday states a possible referral date imagining they go through certain many days per month:
First column if there will only be referred 5 days per month then at the bottom you see they will have referred to 16.mai 06 in August 2010.
Second column is 7 Lid days per month and then in August 2010 they will have reached up to July 31. 2006
Third column is 9 days and in August 2010 they will have reached to LID 15.okt 2006
Fourth column is 11 days and in December 2009 they will have reached up to Lid 02.nov 06
Fifth row is 15 days and there they will reach LID 02.nov.06 in June 2009
And so on.
Hope it helps
Meinvill
June 20th, 2007 at 11:07 am
This is just so sad, I keep reading things that the CCAA is saying that they want to think of the children first, that they want to find families for the children but I just don’t see where this is putting the children first. These children did not ask to be in an orphan, it just makes me want to cry that they are caught up in the politics.
June 20th, 2007 at 11:11 am
DH and I have friends that work at an SWI in Hunan and I asked them how long it takes to get a child “paper ready”. They said 6 months, and that’s if everything goes smoothly. They said there are many more hitches than you would think. Depending on the provincial government, you could run into the readying taking 8 - 12 months.
Mary
June 20th, 2007 at 11:28 am
I know you can’t completely predict the future. But I’m trying to make some plans for next summer. Our LID is 3/27/06. My best guess is to go with the 9 day prediction. Do you think this is the most reasonable prediction for someone with my LID? I know you said for late 2006 you think we may see a higher # of days per referral, and those with late 05 will probably see referrals similar to what we’ve seen in the past few months, but if you had a March 06 LID, would you be looking mostly at the 9 day?
June 20th, 2007 at 11:29 am
Thanks, klem, for bringing that up. There is a basic economics lesson here in supply and demand (NOT that I am in any way suggesting that children are a commodity - please don’t flame me!!!). However, if the CCAA has indeed not increased staff, how could they possibly handle the increased number of dossiers of late 2005?
I believe there is a quota - or ceiling or whatever semantics you want to use; however, I don’t believe it is lower, just that fewer babes were adopted into US and more into other countries.
June 20th, 2007 at 11:42 am
threebluesteps, I think you are right on spot, this is exactly the way CCAA is communicating. We just need to hear the message - they told us last year, and we did not hear it. In my country they said a) we want the wait to stay at 12-13 months b) there are twice as many parents as there are paperready babies.
We listened to “a”. Wrong.
So the last message means that they will be referring out 30 % less babies this year in comparison last year. Oh dear.
June 20th, 2007 at 11:57 am
mezzok: I am not sure it a question of staffing. There’s no indication that China had enough babies to keep up with number of prospective parent dossiers–even if they had tons of staff to do the matches.
Now there may be more NSN babies in orphanages than they are currently placing today, but I am not sure that they ever had enough to keep up with huge increase in parent dossiers.
June 20th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
klem - once again I agree with you. I was just bringing up the point that staff has not (apparently) been increased at the CCAA; after all, they are still doing reviews of April/May 2006 dossiers in the review room.
June 20th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
Why are they lowering the ceiling quota?
Just asking as politely as possible and no flaming please..If SN counts in that quota, that means that people who jump from NSN to NS and get moved up in line are bumping those of us who are staying in place with a NSN further and further back? That hardly seems fair. Unfair from the quota/China policy aspect…
June 20th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
I agree that China may eventually be headed to a SN country only. I have seen many refrences to large numbers of SN children in orphanages (including healthy older children) and less and less NSN children. When I also couple that with the fact that agencies get big points with the ccaa for SN, I suspect that they are trying to IA all of the Sn children and keep the NSN for domestic adoptions. I feel this is very far away, but if they put a hold to catch up, I can see them only opening back up to SN. Just an opinion
June 20th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
As to a 10,000 babies per month quota/celing being optimistic…
That would be 833 babies per month worldwide. With the increase in %age of SN, and I think RQ has said that around 600 NSN babies are referred, then this could be close to a reliable number…
What do you think RQ?
Leslie in TN
June 20th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
My concern is about life changes forcing families out of the program.. For instance if one of the parents should pass away and the other still wishes to go forward with the adoption, will CCAA still allow that or will they deny? I am thinking of so many scenarios right now. Alot can happen in this long wait. We have been logged in close 16 months and I would just die if circumstances prevented me from being a mother.
Now as I worry and sit and stew.. This is not getting any easier…..:(
June 20th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
So I sent this info to RQ not too long ago but there was no way for her to respond, so I’ll ask here since it has to do with a speed up: My agency’s China rep said that she has heard that we could possibly see the rest of November in this next batch. I know it’s ridiculous, but was just wondering your thoughts, RQ.
June 20th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
If all of the CHINA ONLY agencies throughout the world provided one full time staff member (or the salary/dollars for a full time staff member) to each SWI to help them complete the paperwork that apparently takes so long, I think we would see quite an amazing speed up in both SN and NSN. Not only are the waiting parents and unadopted children suffering, the China only agencies stand to lose their livelihood (unless they re-group and take on other countries). I would imagine that if things continue to slow down, China only agencies (like mine) will be faced with staffing cuts/layoffs, streamlining, etc. After all, how can they attract people to their agency when the world is learning fast and hard that adoptions from China take so much longer now than in the recent past. Although we are sticking it out with China for our first child, people like me will be forced (because of our ages) to go to other countries for our second child. I know that now for a certainty. So, my China only agency, no matter how spectacular they are in eventually facilitating the adoption of my daughter, they will never get me back for child #2. I simply won’t qualify. But I WILL qualify in other countries and other programs. China only agencys have the wherewithall and the resources to provide one staff member per SWI to facilitate the paperwork. They need to start thinking OUTSIDE of this little box and get on top of the REAL issues (such as overwhelming paperwork) and find REAL solutions (if it is so time consuming and cumbersome, FOR PETE’S SAKE, help them out with it).
June 20th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Thanks RQ..Really, Really interesting stuff here. It’s so nice ot have someone share this information with us. We feel so left out of the loop.
I’ve been checking other web sites and talking with other people who have adopted or will adopt and it sounds like China is headed towards something that other countries have already implemented…more domestic adoptions. Other countries who have done adoption in the past are severely limiting or shutting down their programs to international adoptions because they have had so many international and hardly any domestic. For various reasons, image, shady (money) stuff going on with the international adoptions, these countries have chosen to change their policies.
So even though we’re all frusterated with China, I don’t think they are the only ones to limit adoptions to other countries. It seems they are just following the course of other countries.
Interesting about the increase in SN adoptions. We are thinking of switching but still on the fence.
June 20th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
My friend and daughter’s mandarin teacher is from China, she just got back from a month plus visit. We were discussing the increasing time it takes to get a referral. The response she gave me about the situation was that there is too much being said world wide about the gender imbalance. She agrees that this is a valid problem. She also said that the thought of leaving kids in orphanages their whole lives just to become wives makes her sick, but it is certainly not something that the gov’t would flinch at. She also said that the abandonment issues are an embarrasment to China and the one child policy is becoming increasingly talked about throughout the world. If you’ll remember the riots and deaths recently in regards to the policy? China does not like that sort of thing getting out and it is virtually impossible to keep it in now with the internet. I don’t know what the answer will ultimately be, but I believe that there is a huge problem right now with so much media attention directed toward China with the olympics (and adoption/abandonment related stories). To be honest, when I hear about them getting ready for the olympics I just get a gut wrenching anger that that money is not being spent on the orphans and other humanitarian needs and I truely love China! If the world believes that there are fewer orphans than ever and China is prospering out the wazoo, it is a way easier pill to swallow. I personally believe that there are THOUSANDS of available babies, China is trying to change the picture. Sorry this was rambling.
June 20th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
I have nothing to back this up but my own “gut feeling,” but I think China intends to gradually diminish the number of children referred until its international adoption program is, essentially, 100% SN. I feel the slowdown is intentional and I fear that with each passing month, we will see fewer children referred. China is becoming an undeniable economic and military powerhouse. It understands the gender imbalance stats and how that imbalance affects its social and economic welfare. I’m LID 4/21/06 and I have no illusions about a referral anytime in the near future. If I had to speculate, I would predict an early 2009 referral for my LID and Spring 2009 for travel. I do worry about the China-only agencies and those multi-country agencies that deal with other “slowdown” countries in addition to China. I foresee downsizing, streamlining, etc unless those particular agencies have a healthy balance sheet and reserves. It appears that so many agencies expanded greatly in the last several years - let’s hope they did so wisely because many, many of us could be affected by this too.
June 20th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
I agree with the postings about China perhaps wanting to keep their girls in China due to the gender imbalance. Whether it be through domestic adoption (which would be great) or the girls growing up in orphanages, China does now realize that the gender disparity is going to be a huge problem. It already is.
June 20th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Our mid-size, multi counrty agency is already feeling the financial hit. We wanted to put some printed info out in our community about the agency and were told by friends that they are no longer doing ths becasue if cuts due to the China program slow down. They are really suggesting Ethiopa right now as an alternative.
June 20th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Just a couple of quick thoughts on what I have concluded over the last couple of years on two subjects raised in the comments.
1. Staffing levels at the CCAA do not have any impact on the number of IA referrals each month. I think it is very safe to say that if the CCAA really wanted to match more children and had lots of children available to match they could comfortably keep up with their current staff. In terms of the review room…they are so far ahead of matching I am sure that reviewing files is not a big priority with them.
2. With respect to IA the gender imbalance thing is a complete red herring. I ran the number in forum post a few months ago and came to this conclusion: the girls of IA represent less than 0.1% of the girls of any particular age. So in a province with a gender imbalance of 1.150:1 for example; keeping all the girls there might change it to 1.149:1. A literal drop in the bucket.
June 20th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
If there is a quota and it has been reduced, then wouldn’t that cause more children to be left in orphanages?
If so, the babies keep getting older by the day. Then there will come a time when the orphanages are overwhelmed with older children. Will/does the CCAA refer from the top of the age range? Will there be an increase in the average age of referrals? Can we do some type of poll to see if the referral ages start to increase?
June 20th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
The gender imbalance IS a big problem but with the importance of family in China, how many men are going to be lining up to marry a girl out of an orphanage???? The scary thing is that these girls cannot have many good options….They either are put out on the street, working in a factory, or become a “shared” wife to produce sons or worse-they become a victim of the sex trade where they are kidnapped and taken across province lines to be the “wife” of someone. This can’t be a situation where a nice young man who will treat them well is coming to the orpahange to sweep them off their feet.
In addition, the numbers are miniscule compared to the imbalance. Last I saw it was 25,000,000 men without wives and less than 100,000 have been adopted in all these years, right? Some of the numbers are boys and SN so if you say that 10,000 a year could stay in China and be wives, and that would help…I just don’t believe it. But the WORLD may percieve it differently. I remeber on 20/20 where they asked an official why they were letting ALL THEIR GIRLS GO” when they have such a gender imbalance…Stupid stupid stupid.
Leslie in TN
June 20th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
I just want to add, that some of the comments are absolutely true.
Firstly, there have been several visits from overseas organizations to China who are totally opposed to IA, and cannot understand why China would even have such a program available when there is no economic reason to do so besides a law.
Countries do not like the fact that their children are being adopted out. Some countries are slowly phasing out their adoption programs. It does not look good to the rest of the world that they cannot take care of their children.
It is a myth that all families in China only have 1 child. There are families that have more than 1 without Government knowledge, and others who quite happily pay for the extra child/children. Our male Guide was one of 3 children.
Some areas are very defiant, and have had clashes with the Government when they have done a census in their area.
Some CWI have only SN’s children. In China, through our experience, even those families who could afford several children did not want to keep a SN’s child. I cannot even begin to tell you comments received by others who have adopted SN’s in China. These comments are truly cruel and the thought process behind it, very middle ages.
My Asian step-family live in western cultures and they also share the same belief about children born with defects.
In China families can easily abandon their children born with a birth defect without any repercussions. They just do it.
Our guide told us that his Aunt had 3 sons, and abandoned the last one, he was completely healthy, she just didn’t need him, and they didn’t want to pay the hefty penalty.
My step mother who is Chinese came from a very affluent family, she is their only child. She said, where she lives, people do not abandon their daughters. People still don’t.
However, she said that in rural areas where there is poverty and old traditional beliefs they do.
People are adopting domestically in China. My stepmother said, if we wanted, she could go to China (which she visits frequently) and adopt a baby there without any problems
and bring it back to the US. People are adopting girls for prospective brides for family members. This is not considered something unusual.
If there are thousands and thousands of babies, which
have not been seen by people I know who are missionaires,
guides and family, then they must have them hidden.
Nobody I know has seen with their own eyes lots of NSN’s
babies in CWI’s. These people do missionary work with
CWI’s that do not work with any IA program and those that
do.
I have heard that paper ready takes a long time. One lady told me that they have to make all efforts to find the birth family of each baby abandoned. She said she doesn’t know why they take so long in doing this because the family isn’t going to come forward because of the criminal charges that would be made against them. She was volunteering for a CWI that was in Hunan, I think, she said it was a CWI that was very prolific in adopting out babies at one time. Maybe I got it wrong. However, she claims that there is a lot of paperwork involved.
My gut feeling is that China will eventually phase out adoptions, and only make SN’s available for adoption.
They have realized that people will adopt and petition for
children with SN’s, and since alot of agencies have only a couple of WC left on their lists they receive from CCAA, it is a program that they can perceive as being a way to keep the IA program open but the way they want.
Our agency had 40 children on their list, and within 2 weeks, most found a family.
Anyway, this is just my opinion LOL, and probably isn’t worth a bean.
probably on do SN’s.
The Olympics does have alot to do with wanting the world to see China as a prosperous modern country where it can take care of it’s people. During the Korean olympic games there was much ado about the fact they eat dogs, and this is something that is a EWWWW factor in the western world. They released a video of happy Koreans taking dogs out for walks, and that they love their pets. I do not think the Chinese want the media to focus on their abandonment issue.
June 20th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
beentheredonethat: I totally agree with you that there are thousands of babies in the orphanages/foster care. Unfortunatley they are not being made available for adoption or at least IA. I think China is very concerned about thier image regarding the number of IAs they have (including the large number of girls), especially with all eyes on them because of the Olympics, and they probably are not giving an accurate account of the numbers.
Personally, I think it would make them look good if they could show the world that they have a great, smoothly run IA program, place lots of children and are the most popular IA program. To me placing many , many children would tryly show that they DO care for their babies. I DON’T think it makes them look good that they make people wait for 3+ years to get a child.
I just can’t beleive that a country of 1.3 BILLION people with a population control program and a different culture where it is more common to abandon children than it is in this country (many US unwed teenage girls keep their babies), doesn’t have an overwhelming amount of orphans. The number just don’t add up for me.
June 20th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
Ok, maybe I am missing something here. If, by chance, the Chinese government wants to keep girls in country to be future marriage partners, what is the whole point of the one child policy? I do understand that the policy does “effectively” prevent many from having more than one (or two) children, and not everyone has children that they later abandon. But, it makes no sense to me that if they have a policy for the purpose of population control that they would be working so hard to keep kids in country, and in orphanages, that could be raised in loving families someplace else.
June 20th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
mcwannab, I was under the impression that young Chinese Women, that have grown up in an Orphanage were not desirable, suitable wives, for China’s Men.
Nihao, has been my anti-spam word now multiple times, maybe it means “speedup”, and that I should be brushing up on my Chinese…… :)
Shelley
June 20th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
A great thread, from a fantastic blog by our RQ which with the select, copy and print button, spells out the wait for the never ending questions which are so hard to answer for family and friends….. “Have you heard anything, Why is the wait taking so long?”
I am not going to comment on the reasons why I think or add otherwise to this thread, because it has already been said, and whether I like this or not… 3years has been heard through my ears blindfold.
June 20th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
Question to RQ or anyone out there with info: Does anyone know where I can find out the numbers of LIDs in China after the May 1st changes? I have several years before I am eligible to adopt from china, and I’m curious to see how much of a drop there has been/will be. Thanks!!
June 21st, 2007 at 9:05 am
One thing that should be remembered when talking about the one child policy is that is hasn’t been in effect that many years. Many middle aged people have siblings because they were born before the law of one child. Our guides all had siblings.
June 21st, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Our male Guide was in his 20’s. My dh was very surprised that he had siblings. He also told us that more boys will probably be available for adoption as some families in China who already have a son, maybe 2 and get pregnant again with another, will abandon them. This last lot of referrals did have alot of boy referrals compared to previous years.
From what I have learned about China its culture and people from my family, is not one size rule fits all, and you will NEVER really know what is happening or what the Government is doing. That is why alot of people have conflicting experiences in China as to what we are lead to believe is the norm.
June 21st, 2007 at 2:38 pm
fox news just had an article that 60 million girls are missing due to abortion and infanticide. i agree with this, i have many friends in china who have told me there are back alley ultra sounds people get to see the sex. also in northeren china women have begun to take fertility pills to have multiples. ttwins triplets are considered lucky and the goverment lets you keep them. another chinese friend just forced to have an abortion with 2nd pregnancy. bottom line. they are killing the babies.
June 21st, 2007 at 8:50 pm
Some of us may abhor abortion or infanticide, but it does mean one less child to grow up hungry or suffering in an orphanage, never getting a family. Isn’t that what we care about - preventing kids from suffering? To be terribly blunt - the dead babies aren’t suffering any more.
Bottom line: they are their own babies to do with as they wish.
It’s weird, adoption - the fact that our babies were abandoned by their families makes us able to love them… but if they were prevented or aborted, we would not have them.
And that really makes people upset.
June 21st, 2007 at 9:29 pm
I really believe the slowdown is purely bureaucratic. The slwodown occured just after the CCAA re-organized and put the orphans under the control of the CCAA ( central gvmt) rather than just the provicial governments. This must have been a HUGE change of paperwork, training new people, hiring new people, computer changes (remember the changeover in Feb.?) and working out the kinks in a brand new and enourmous new system. This is the only explaination that makes sense. It explains why there has been so much silence on teh slowdown from China. Who wants to admit there are flaws in a new government program? There are more people than ever in China, the stigma of single motherhood is just as strong and women are more sexually active due to the economic upturn and migrantion to the cities to work. So the amount of abandoned infants cannot be dropping. People who are married can still only have one or two kids no matter how much money they make unless they grease some wheels or pay enornous fines. Those people were not the ones abandoning infants in the streets in the first place so they do not even count. Yes, the amount of kids being born with birth defects is on the rise due to pollution rising. So there are probably more of them being abandoned but probably many more that die soon after birth or due to the inability of the parents to pay for treatments for them. Another consequence of the good economic times in China is the rise of divorces. Kids are now being abandoned if they are the product of the first marriage more than ever. So there are many more older babies and children being dropped off at public places that are healthy but inconvinient.
June 22nd, 2007 at 11:39 am
Autumnp: I agree with you completely. This IS a political process whether we like it or not since it is run by a government agency. For that reason I think we will never know the whole truth, unfortunatley. I don’t believe for a moment that there is a shortage of children, just a shortage of paper-ready children. Big difference, but if the children are not paper-ready, there is nothing we can do!
I just hope that the process will speed up, for whatever reason, and these kids can get the parents they deserve. I think that would speak VOLUMES about China’s IA program, more than the supposed “lack of children” that they are touting. I don’t buy it.
Hope your wait is not too long!!
June 27th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
One thing that is not being qualified in this whole mess is how many people are in line for a child?
We hear 2000-3000 applications were received in one month for Nov 05. Even if only 7500 children are adopted world wide down from a high of 9,000 a couple of years ago the L.I. dates and wait times are a function of increased demand assuming the supply is relatively constant or relatively so.
Also, I cannot imagine the US Consulate in Acton being able to handle more than they do now - 8500 children a year, assuming 200 days of processing a year = 42 children a day to have all the paper work processed.
June 27th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
nle18901, I just did a post about the backlog:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/06/24/the-backlog/
Also, the consulate does not process orphans 200 days a year, I don’t think. They only do it on certain days of the week. They occasionally open up for more days when the schedule starts to get backlogged to much.
When we were there they easily did 60 orphans, probably more. And that was just for our appt. I don’t know how many appt times a day there are. I think there are at least two, as I know some people go early and some people go after lunch.