The Backlog
Back in October I made some calculations on what the backlog was likely to have been at that time.
Back then we assumed that a 7 month wait before the deluge of dossiers meant about 7,000 dossiers sitting at the CCAA waiting to be matched to a child. This assumed the CCAA was receiving around 1,000 new dossiers a month requesting a NSN child, and they were referring about 1,000 NSN babies per month.
Our next assumption was that in March of 2005 they started receiving around 1,600 dossiers a month, and that in October of 2005 they started only referring around 600 babies a month. This gave us an estimated 23,200 NSN dossiers waiting at the CCAA in October of 2006. I believe this was understated, because I now believe the average was closer to 1,800 dossiers per month coming in. As I said at the time, I thought I had probably understated that number, but preferred to understate instead of overstate.
To move forward from October, I believe that the early November referral batch was probably close to 600 referrals, but since then I believe the average has been closer to 300 referrals per month. Quite possibly even less than that.
I believe that November and December probably had 1,400 new dossiers logged in each month, January had about 900, February 1600, March 2000, April 2500, May 2500, and probably 500 in June. These are estimates, of course, but I think I’m in the right neighborhood with them.
Instead of trying to explain this with math, I’ve put together a spreadsheet. And, to be accurate, I counted referrals in the actual months they arrived. The CCAA does not “skip” months, they send referrals out about every 32 or so days, and it happens that sometimes there are two in a calendar month and sometimes there are none in a calendar month. It seemed easier to just do it as they actually came in to keep from having people complain the numbers were not right because there wasn’t a referral batch in December (for instance). As it turned out, it did make a bit of a difference. But these are estimates, so probably not that big of a difference.
As you can see, the backlog as of the end of this month (June 2007) would likely be around 38,000 if we don’t consider attrition.
I’m going to assume that 25% of those dossiers have either switched to SN or dropped out. It’s higher for those getting referrals now, but lower for those back a bit farther. That brings us to a backlog of around 28,500.
I’ve seen several estimates that the backlog is close to 25,000 or even 30,000. So it seems we are in the right neighborhood.
This means that if there are 28,500 dossiers waiting to be matched, and the CCAA has been referring about 300 or 400 babies a month so far this year. If we go with 400, that means it will take 71.25 months to get through the backlog. How long is 71.25 months? Five years and 11 months and 8 days. Since we must round up since if you miss a cut off you wait a whole ‘nother month, we’ll call it six years.
If they can get back to last year’s numbers of 600 per month (on average) then it will take 48 months to get through it, which is 4 years.
I do not think it is going to take six years to get through the backlog. I do think they are most likely going to reach three years. I think four years is possible but I don’t think it’s a given. I just cannot fathom that it will get over that.
June 24th, 2007 at 9:55 am
From the perspective of someone who has known they wanted to adopt from China for the past 7 years and yet has another 4 years before she can submit a dossier, I found this information very helpful - thank you. It does indeed scare me to think that those who recently sent their dossiers may be just receiving referrals when I am submitting mine, but I am also somewhat assured when I think “Well, at least the wait can’t be as bad in 4 years as it is now” due to the new requirements. Am I wrong to think this? Is anyone daring to project what the wait time will be like for someone who has a LID right around the time when the backlog is finally processed?
June 24th, 2007 at 10:04 am
CCAA WAS referring about 1000 NSN babies and now they are referring somewhere between 300 and 600?? (Did I read/understand that correctly?) I have always tried NOT to be cynical about this process but how can there NOT be something “political” going on?
June 24th, 2007 at 10:15 am
Yes Barby, you understood that correctly.
The SN numbers have gone up pretty dramatically while the NSN numbers have been going down.
June 24th, 2007 at 11:07 am
When you say, “I believe” and then follow with information, what are you basing “your beliefs” on? Same with “assumptions. It would be so much more comforting to know that information is fact based and where the research / facts are from to all of us in the wait.
Our agency was excellent the first time with giving us as much information as possible as they are during our second wait. They are welcoming with questions and helpful with suggestions for the waiting. I certainly hope that’s true with anyone’s agency.
Our first wait was 7 months and we are now 7 months into what is currently about 20 months for our second child. I embrace it all because I know in the end it all leads us to our child.
June 24th, 2007 at 11:16 am
RQ..Thanks for the numbers. I agree with you that NSN referrals have decreased to between 300-600. Of these, how many do you think are expedited?
I also wonder how many babies do you think are being referred in the SN category? From my perspective, it almost seems 50:50 right now for SN and NSN..which would suggest to me that the total number of referrals per month are still around 600 a month. What do you think?
June 24th, 2007 at 11:17 am
It is interesting to me to see that the first month (6/07) of new dtc after the new rules went into effect there are close to the amount they are referring each month, 500 vs 300. This would put them in the long run, after the back log is done, about 18 months to 2 year wait. I wonder if they looked at what they would need to do to bring the dtc and the quota per month more in line and eliminated those they needed to to make the numbers match. I think they know what they need to do to make IA slow after the huge amounts of dtc in 2006 and 2006. It was twofold and it worked, increase the wait greatly to discourage people from being dtc or continue to wait and put into place new rules to piggy back on the discouragement by making many people not qualify anymore. It is pretty clear to me that they want to slow down or stop IA for the long term and they are saving face by not having to say it to us but in every way they can they are showing us what it is they desire by their actions. I am not say they are wrong to do what they feel they must but it is a huge disappointment for us in the IA community.
June 24th, 2007 at 11:28 am
2ndtimearound, I went into a lot of detail on the earlier post about where I got certain numbers. You can read it to get an idea of how some of them came about. There are very few hard numbers released by the CCAA. I’m not going to deceive anyone into believing I know an absolute when I don’t, so I am trying to be clear on what is am assumption and what is not.
catherinethegreat, yes, I think we are very close to 50/50 now. Maybe 60/40. But, some of the months they were referring 600 it was probably 70/30 or 60/40, so I don’t think you can say it’s the same overall total.
amygum, if the wait is going to be three our four years then I’d expect that only fifty to seventy percent of the June 2007 lids will still be in line four years from now.
June 24th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Am I understanding the middle column to be a guesstimate that the number of NSN referrals that were actually received between October 2005 through September 2006 was 7800? And, that so far this year (October 2006 through present), there have been approximately 3000 NSN referrals? If so, and if CCAA does not want to exceed last year’s numbers, it could still refer 4800 children between now and the end of September 2007 — or 1600 per month in July, August & September. Since they’re obviously not currently trying to do anything close to that rate, does that fit with the theory that CCAA is instead referring ony 300 NSN because they are referring a much larger number of SN children?
June 24th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
Wow, what a “Gift” to the agencies that were able to collect so much $$$$ for those heavy months, and now will probably never need to complete.
June 24th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
What I’m thinking is, that if it is true that there is a quota and that quota includes all referrals — whether NSN or SN — then it’s not so important how many referrals are logged in between now and one’s LID date, but how many people “jump line” to SN. You’ve been talking about an attrition rate to SN of 25% or even higher. Isn’t what you’re saying is that even though you may have an LID of say, early January 2006, and there may be approximately 2400 people to get through between now and your LID, you need to add 25% (600) to that number since there may be at least that many people who have LIDs AFTER
early January 2006 who are going to “jump line”? That brings the number of dossiers that CCAA needs to get through to 3000 before they reach early January 2006.
And if they’re referring at a rate of 600 per month (NSN and SN combined), that would mean another 5 to 6 months’ wait for someone with an LID of early January 2006 — or referrals in January 2008.
June 24th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
Thanks for the numbers RQ, it really hits home when you see it in black and white, though I am not surprised by any of the numbers. I didn’t think i could possibly get MORE disgusted with this process, but today i think i’ve really hit rock bottom. To see the referrals go from about 1000 to 600 to 300 a month now — all in an 18 month period. It boggles the mind really.
And as Carol mentions, the ‘jumping the line’ effect is significant as well. When the referral numbers decrease so dramatically, and when more and more people are being added AHEAD of you in line, it really does make you feel like we’re getting nowhere, literally.
June 24th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Interesting thoughts, Carol. I’d be interested to hear what RQ and others think along these same lines…
June 24th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
I’m confused. If I read that write, each month from Feb 2005 going forward they received 1800 dossiers (roughly). But what about the BIG months of Oct/Nov 2005 and March 2006? Are you assuming they average out? N
June 24th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
That’s correct Natalie, I have information that gives me a decent idea of what the average is for that time period. Some months were obviously more and some were less.
June 24th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
I’ve been reading RQ for sometime now, but this is my first post. Thanks to RQ and her court for all the insight and analysis! We returned home with our 2 1/2 year old SN daughter in March. So, my username is a little outdated. I’m no longer “hoping for four”, I have them with me!!! We had decided on SN before we were dtc, but it really concerns me that moving to SN is being referred to as “jumping line”. Maybe those using this term are not meaning anything negative by it. I feed so badly for all of you that are having to wait so long for your referral and I just keep looking back at RQ again and again, hoping for good news for all of you. However, please keep in mind that while there are many children that have very mild needs in the SN program, there are many more that need immediate medical assistance and I don’t think that those parents that are open minded and open hearted enough to take on those conditions should be looked at as “line breakers”. If you haven’t looked at the SN program before, please do a little research. You may just find your little one looking back at you from a waiting child list!
June 24th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
Wow, thanks for that information, I can’t believe all the work you do so that we get the opportunity to see the bigger picture.
The Director of our CWI sent ian email to our group that their CWI is now 99.99% all SN’s, and she said that there are now too many children constantly coming in which is very sad.
It does take them a while to get the children’s information ready to be submitted to the CCAA and then CCAA forwarding the WC listings to the agencies. They are backlogged with this procedure.
June 24th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
I don’t believe anyone is saying that people who chose a SN child should have to wait in order to bring a child home.
They are just referring to the fact that, if the quota is real, then having someone LID behind you choose a waiting child means you have to wait that much longer. If you missed the attrition post that talked about this, perhaps that can better explain it.
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/05/14/attrition-logic/
June 24th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Thanks for all the information…every time I read this kind of information I try to figure out what it means for a person with an April 2006 lid. Do I gave 3 more years to wait or two? I thought it was just 2 (ah!). I remember another spread sheet showing this kind of info. for expected referrals–Would you mind directing me to it again? I think I might print it this time to avoid panic mode every time I hear about the extended wait times.
June 24th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Thanks, RQ, for the information. It really helps me to appreciate we made the right decision for our family in switching countires.
I can’t help but think the S L O W down is, indeed, political.
June 24th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
We are May 07 DTC. In the yahoo group, there are only 34 members. Apparently the April group has over 200. But your chart is showing that May 07 still has a large # of dossier submissions…which I don’t think it does. I do think that March and April are large but that there was a dramatic drop off in dossiers starting in May.
June 24th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Right Susie, because the DTC groups are for when people were DTC, when their dossier went to China.
I’m figuring on when people were actually logged in, not when they sent their dossier.
June 24th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
Thanks Rumor Queen. I’m sorry you have to be the carrier of bad news at times. I have a LID of 16April07. We were hoping to have our little one within 2 years. That does not look like it will happen. Because of the long,long,long wait, my husband wants us to get pregnant. Is anyone else thinging this? The adoption was going to be our first child, but with me going to be 37 this year and we want 2 children??? China has so messed up our plans. Why are they doing this to us?
June 24th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
Gwen, I would try to get pregnant. Our fertility Dr. said after a women hits 35 and has not previously had a child their chances of getting pregnant decreases with each year. China won’t see your dossier for at least a year.
June 24th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
Hi Gwen — From your post, it sounds like you might not have visited RQ’s Forum possibly much or maybe just not recently. Yes, there are other people there in your situation talking about either trying to conceive while they wait or about the possibility of switching countries. RQ has recently created different rooms in the Forum for us to talk about these issues there. I wish you all the best as you and your husband explore all of your options.
Christy
June 24th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
p12 - I thought that too. My agency required I pay their fee before I could be DTC. All I have left to pay is travel & orphanage fee.
I started to think about their business in general. They are medium size, China only, fees up front. I don’t see how they’ll stay competitive with other agencies that allow you to pay all or part of the fees when you receive your referral.
I wonder if we’ll see more China only agencies adding other countries to their services?
June 25th, 2007 at 12:35 am
Thanks RQ!
I’m probably missing something but since the number of referrals per month has dropped so precipitously over the past year or so, shouldn’t we factor in a continued drop when we’re looking at how things are likely to go? It doesn’t make sense to me that we can assume CCAA will continue referring the number of kids it’s currently referring each month when there’s been such steep decline. If there’s been such a huge decline in the number of children available, due to decreased abandonments/increased domestic adoption (or even if they just want us to THINK this is true) shouldn’t we figure a continued downward trend into the number of referrals expected per month?
June 25th, 2007 at 2:11 am
Here is a scary thought….if you follow the downward trend, when will it hit Zero?
June 25th, 2007 at 3:51 am
So with a May 2006 LID we are looking at another 3 years?! uggh…
June 25th, 2007 at 6:15 am
In one of the first posts I made on RQ’s blog (back in I think Aug/Sept 2006 — which I can’t find at the moment) I said that a friend of mine who covers the nonprofit world tried to find out what was going on in China IA for me. I included in that post her description of the China program setting up to be a giant “pyramid scheme.†Wow – she was dead on! The pattern of referrals is nothing short of catastrophic for what I suspect is a huge number of us.
Even though I think my agency behaved despicably by not telling clients about the slowdown and resulting backlog, I’ve tried to warn them that they’ve helped to create a group of people — numbering in the thousands – who feel they’ve had their pockets picked and their emotional well-being swiped by greedy agencies. My exact words: “You have created a group of people who feel they have nothing to lose – and I don’t think you can begin to appreciate how dangerous that really is.â€
June 25th, 2007 at 6:41 am
Ummm, yes, some agencies who had a glimmer of what might happen (not all, and maybe even not many, esp smaller ones) DID and continue to exploit, but In some countries the gov’t is the agency, and it’s not always about the money. Some agency people are also in the dark, as we were. Either way, your vaguely threatening e-mail would have come across as a kind of over-the-top threat: “how dangerous that really is” etc., ‘a group of people who have nothing to lose.” — what on earth are you getting at? ‘Columbine…the waiting parent version’???? Yeeesh.
One more reason we should all be glad that CCAA is doing more rigourous mental health checks.
June 25th, 2007 at 6:59 am
Geez threebluesteps — My agency knows I work in the media — I’ve warned them on several occasions that this could very well end in a scandal — as clients realize that no child is forthcoming in any reasonable amount of time — people will turn to their congressmen — not for an expedited 171– but at the very least, for an explaination of why this mess got so out of hand. After seeing one-too-many stories about how China has “no orphan problem” they will turn to reporters out of frustration — and it will make the Paula Zahn thing look like a picnic. People with nothing to lose in this situation — and I mean by this people who realize that this is not a viable program in its present state and a child being referrred is out of the question unless you have the luxery of being able to wait several years — might just pull this entire thing down.
June 25th, 2007 at 8:12 am
I basically have to repeat what 3timemom and P12 said because those posts really struck a chord with me. if we go from 1000 per month to 600 to 300, when does it hit zero? why would it all of a sudden level out after decreasing steadily for 18 months? That’s not to say that 300 is a viable or desirable figure, but the trend is clearly downward.
I continue to be shocked every day by how disastrous this situation has become for those of us waiting.
June 25th, 2007 at 10:22 am
One thing about the folks in China, they have a reputation for sticking to their word. We got a call in June 06…it was an assurance call that we would have our referral by the end of the year. I thought certainly that is just a general statement and it couldn’t possibly take that long. But it ended up being the one thing that got me through the month of December. My agency said that when the folks in China say something like that, they are very reliable…it has to do with honor. We were matched in December…and even though we didn’t see our referral till Jan 2nd, they were true to their word. So with that said, if they are saying 3 years, they will honor their word…like it or not. For those waiting, think 3 years and go on living…interrupted only by updating necessary paperwork or the call! Life is too precious to waste it on worrying about things you can’t control. And as you patiently wait for it, you will find it sweeter at the end. I can say this after being a very tortured soul for months and now asking myself why I wasted so much of my time when it happened just as it needed to for us to get OUR daughter.
June 25th, 2007 at 10:28 am
I understood perfectly what Chinasyndrome was trying to convey. People who have been duped (whether it be by CCAA or our own agencies) have a tendency to want to
get the story out. If China IS concerned enough about world opinion during the Olympics or otherwise, it stands to reason that they would not want to have all of the adverse media attention of parents who end up just pulling out due to the interminable wait.
As to my use of the words “jump line” to describe the impact of switching from NSN to SN, I stand by my statement. This DOES have the effect of people moving themselves up in the queue (whether for altruistic reasons or not) — with the ultimate impact of lengthening the wait for those who started and stayed with the NSN program.
If CCAA wants to increase/expand the SN program, I’m all for it for families who are financially, physically, and emotianally able to take on those challenges. I just wish it weren’t at the expense of the NSN program which was touted so favorably and was the basis for so many of us getting on this train in the first place.
June 25th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Hi RQ
Per you chart, the backlog is 38,000 families. However, since Oct LID’s have all been referred, only the dossiers from Nov 2005 thru Jun 2006 remain which totals 34,400, or a difference of 3,600 familes. Does this make sense? I know the difference is not material, but every little bit helps.
June 25th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
OK, lets assume agencies were ignorant of the backlog earlier …but they clearly cannot be now. Regardless of whether China is accepting dossiers, shouldn’t the agencies themselves stop accepting them? At what time does this become criminal? In crude terms, are they taking payment for orders they know they can Not fill?
June 25th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
I probably should read ALL the replies before I make a comment but here goes. Does anyone know if the CCAA has ever contemplated putting a “hold” on accepting new dossiers until the backlog is down to a more manageable size? I mean, why keep piling up more and more families, only to make them wait and wait. Am I missing something? I know it would be very hard financially on some China only agencies perhaps. I know that domestic agencies will put a hold on accepting new families if the wait for a domestic child gets “too long”(whatever that may be).
We adopted our dd in April 2006. We planned to start for dd #2. But have switched to domestic. DH turns 50 in 3 years. We hope to apply again to China right before he does but will see what the wait is at that point. I just know in my heart that waiting 3 or more years is not for me.
June 25th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Eeeeyah, p12. “Orders they know they can not fill”????? Even in crude terms, that’s pretty cringeworthy!!!
June 25th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
NOvary - we are all big boys & girls, I think you understand the point …besides, it puts it in business terms, which is what I am questioning.
June 25th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
My husband and I are just starting on the adoption process. We are considering using a large, local China-only agency. They are telling me that they do not expect the wait to exceed 24 months, ever. So, my questions are (1) should I give this any weight at all? and (2) would you adopt from China right now, if you were starting from the beginning?
June 25th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
I, personally, would run very far away from an agency who claimed to know for a fact it would never go over two years. Maybe have them sign something that says they will provide their services free of charge if you wait longer than 24 months? I’m doubting they will agree to that, but if they do I’d love to hear about it because then I’d believe that maybe they really do know something.
But, as I’ve said before, if we were just now getting started we’d probably be looking at Ethiopia instead of China.
June 25th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Tex09 - my agency has never even speculated as to how long the wait will get. They just say “it is ____ months, and we anticipate it will lengthen.” Maybe someone at the agency was just providing their own personal view. I don’t think anyone or any agency knows just how long the wait will get. I’m LID in April 2006 and I anticipate waiting just about 3 years (from LID to referral). This is my best speculative guess based upon the ever-developing pattern of referrals. If I had to do it again, I would have started a couple of years earlier with China or would now go to Ethiopia - but hindsight is 20/20. If you’re heart is in China, just realize that the wait time has been, and is, lengthening. This is going to be a “long haul” and I wouldn’t be surprised about a 3, 4 or 5 year wait depending on your LID.
June 25th, 2007 at 11:09 pm
I feel like I have been scammed!!! I never would have gotten involved in this mess if my agency had been honest about the real wait!!! When I went to the orientation in January, they kept saying that the CURRENT wait was 18 to 22 months. Well, now I know what they mean when they say CURRENT, but as someone new to the CHinese adoption world, I didn’t know that they were referring to those who logged in in Nov. 2005!!!!!!!! I am furious, and I would give anything to get the money I’ve spent back! Unfortunately, I will have to wait because I cannot financially afford to start something else.
June 26th, 2007 at 4:03 am
Tex09- If your heart is in China, Taiwan has a shorter wait time. When we started the process for the second time this past January, one of the first things I did was try to figure out the wait. And, back then I figured it at three years. Our agency sends dossiers to China each week and assigns each set that goes a group number. We have 69 groups ahead of us and our agency didn’t receive any referrals in the last batch. I would really question any agency that at this time is saying 24 months. I like to hope but…
June 26th, 2007 at 6:06 am
This is the very first time I can’t follow your logic.
Shouldn’t you just add up the new dossiers logged in in the rest of november until now to get to the backlog? Since november is being matched now. That would mean a backlog of 34400 if I count the whole of dossiers of november 2005 and the rest of the months until now.
Where am I wrong?
I hope for a lot af attrition for the best of reasons for everyone.
greetings,
Chinalotus LID may 2006
June 26th, 2007 at 9:06 am
Yes, there is more than one way to go about getting a number/answer/solution. It’s one of the many beauties of math.
I can tell people the backlog grows every month, but most people don’t “get” that without seeing it. I think I’ve shown people what I mean here.
I’ve tried to be clear that this is not exact. It’s a ballpark number.
June 26th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
RQ, I appreciate your analysis and wanted to throw out an analytical exercise:
Do you think the laws of supply-and-demand work so that an equilibrium wait-time exists that drives down the number of DTCs to equal the number of referrals? If so, would you speculate on the length of the wait that will reduce the number of monthly applications sufficiently to match the number of monthly CCAA matches?
June 27th, 2007 at 3:30 pm
I still disagree that there are this many dossiers for May. I have seen posted on this forum + yahoo groups and even in talking w/ people that agencies asked families who wouldn’t qualify after 5/1 to have their dossiers done by late March/early April. Everyone wanted to be logged in before the May 1 deadline.
We had our dossier hand delivered to the CCAA on a Friday. We were logged in that Monday. To me, this shows that there were very few dossiers coming in that they could process us that quickly.
August 22nd, 2007 at 1:48 pm
our log in date was sept 14,2006. can i hopefuuly expect to have my little girl by christmas 2008
September 5th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
I have a question about expeditred dossiers. Does anyone know how fast these are geting to a referral? Our LID was April 20th 2007. Our dossier is supposed to be expedited due to my Asian heritage.
October 4th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
PeterK…You will most likely be celebrating the first Christmas with your child in Christmas 2010.
June 27th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Hi RQ, thanks for your wonderful informative site. I just wanted to post my two cents on the wait. I would like to briefly tell our story for those who may be finding the wait too long. We were DTC in April 06. In June 07, China said we would not be suitable parents and after a fair amount of grieving, we got on with our lives. In August 07, we adopted a beautiful baby girl here in the US. We have an open adoption and could not be happier. China turning us down was the best thing that ever happened to us. We found our Lily here and we did not have to wait for 3 years to do so. I look at the boards periodically to see where the referrals are. With our LID we would still be waiting, and with the rate things are going, we’d probably be waiting another year or so. Instead, next month I will celebrate my princess’ first birthday with her. I’ve been her mama since she was 6 days old. To those who are tired of waiting I say consider opening your heart to a child here who needs you as well. Peace (and thanks for letting me “talk”).