Comments on: The Backlog

By: Llenda

Llenda — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 09:42:11 +0000

Hi and thanks for the calculations!

First a Question: Are your numbers based on US or world wide aplications?

I thought I’d chip in with some Norwegian numbers:
We have LID Sept. 25th, 2006. In front of us there are aprox. 160 applicants from _our_ agency. So far this year (almost 7 months) the agency hve received referrals for 36 children. If the trend continues, the agency should referre aprox. 65 children. In 2007 the number was 75. Let’s say an average of 70.

167 applicants (including our LID) should result in another 2 years, 4 months. Adding the time already passed since our LID brings us up to 4 years, 2 months total.

I’d say your calculations matches mine quite well… :)

Thanks for your fantastic work!

Llenda of Norway

By: rejectedbychina

rejectedbychina — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 20:35:06 +0000

Hi RQ, thanks for your wonderful informative site. I just wanted to post my two cents on the wait. I would like to briefly tell our story for those who may be finding the wait too long. We were DTC in April 06. In June 07, China said we would not be suitable parents and after a fair amount of grieving, we got on with our lives. In August 07, we adopted a beautiful baby girl here in the US. We have an open adoption and could not be happier. China turning us down was the best thing that ever happened to us. We found our Lily here and we did not have to wait for 3 years to do so. I look at the boards periodically to see where the referrals are. With our LID we would still be waiting, and with the rate things are going, we’d probably be waiting another year or so. Instead, next month I will celebrate my princess’ first birthday with her. I’ve been her mama since she was 6 days old. To those who are tired of waiting I say consider opening your heart to a child here who needs you as well. Peace (and thanks for letting me “talk”).

By: Maxi

Maxi — Thu, 04 Oct 2007 20:37:09 +0000

PeterK…You will most likely be celebrating the first Christmas with your child in Christmas 2010.

By: waitingforAly

waitingforAly — Wed, 05 Sep 2007 17:37:18 +0000

I have a question about expeditred dossiers. Does anyone know how fast these are geting to a referral? Our LID was April 20th 2007. Our dossier is supposed to be expedited due to my Asian heritage.

By: PETERK

PETERK — Wed, 22 Aug 2007 17:48:14 +0000

our log in date was sept 14,2006. can i hopefuuly expect to have my little girl by christmas 2008

By: susie

susie — Wed, 27 Jun 2007 19:30:53 +0000

I still disagree that there are this many dossiers for May. I have seen posted on this forum + yahoo groups and even in talking w/ people that agencies asked families who wouldn’t qualify after 5/1 to have their dossiers done by late March/early April. Everyone wanted to be logged in before the May 1 deadline.

We had our dossier hand delivered to the CCAA on a Friday. We were logged in that Monday. To me, this shows that there were very few dossiers coming in that they could process us that quickly.

By: DCFamily

DCFamily — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 16:13:26 +0000

RQ, I appreciate your analysis and wanted to throw out an analytical exercise:

Do you think the laws of supply-and-demand work so that an equilibrium wait-time exists that drives down the number of DTCs to equal the number of referrals? If so, would you speculate on the length of the wait that will reduce the number of monthly applications sufficiently to match the number of monthly CCAA matches?

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 13:06:25 +0000

Yes, there is more than one way to go about getting a number/answer/solution. It’s one of the many beauties of math.

I can tell people the backlog grows every month, but most people don’t “get” that without seeing it. I think I’ve shown people what I mean here.

I’ve tried to be clear that this is not exact. It’s a ballpark number.

By: chinalotus

chinalotus — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 10:06:47 +0000

This is the very first time I can’t follow your logic.

Shouldn’t you just add up the new dossiers logged in in the rest of november until now to get to the backlog? Since november is being matched now. That would mean a backlog of 34400 if I count the whole of dossiers of november 2005 and the rest of the months until now.
Where am I wrong?

I hope for a lot af attrition for the best of reasons for everyone.

greetings,
Chinalotus LID may 2006

By: overjoyed

overjoyed — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 08:03:53 +0000

Tex09- If your heart is in China, Taiwan has a shorter wait time. When we started the process for the second time this past January, one of the first things I did was try to figure out the wait. And, back then I figured it at three years. Our agency sends dossiers to China each week and assigns each set that goes a group number. We have 69 groups ahead of us and our agency didn’t receive any referrals in the last batch. I would really question any agency that at this time is saying 24 months. I like to hope but…