I’m ready for some rumors
If you’ll remember from my When post, we should expect the next batch at the earliest Friday June 29 and the latest Friday July 13. The most likely time of 32 days takes us to Saturday July 7, so I said the most likely first arrivals will be either Friday July 6th or Monday July 9th.
The 29th is this Friday, but I’m not really expecting to see them this Friday. The most likely day is the following Friday or the Monday just after. If they are to arrive Friday the 6th I would hope to begin seeing rumors by the middle of this week. If not before.
On another note, I have lots of information about the various meetings with the CCAA. The biggest news is that several agencies were told the wait could very well reach 3 years, and that the CCAA told many of them they have no intention of closing the program.
I’m going to begin working on the big post that pulls all of the information together. But, the CCAA still has a few more visits to make. I’m not sure if we’ve seen all of the information we’re likely to see at this point or not.
June 25th, 2007 at 8:38 am
Thanks RQ for talking a little about the CCAA’s visit to the US :-) I’m anxious to see what you’ve learned …
Ray.
June 25th, 2007 at 8:53 am
Golly gee! I thought this was going to be a boring week!! Now I have to check in everyday for the possible (5% odds in my thinking) Friday June 29 referrals. I’m still sticking with my guess of a Fourth of July referral date.
Drew LID 4-6-06
June 25th, 2007 at 9:11 am
3 years….back to the cussing thread…..
June 25th, 2007 at 9:11 am
RQ-
Can you please confirm my analysis based on your chart?
We are logged in on Jan 24 2006. For the sake of this analysis let’s just say Jan 01.
So according to your chart there was a backlog of 16,800 dossiers. And between then and now there have been 7,800 referrals leaving 9,000 people ahead of us in the queue.
9,000? Does that seem right? If there was 25% attrition the number could be 6,300? and at 300 referrals per month we’d be talking another 21 months?
Can you please, please confirm if I’ve got this right?
June 25th, 2007 at 9:16 am
When you say 3 yr wait - do you mean that this would be the wait for new folks just starting? Our LID is 3/7/06. Do you mean it could be a 3 yr wait from that date?????
June 25th, 2007 at 9:24 am
graceclaire, I didn’t say it, the CCAA did, and from what I’ve heard they did not give details about who would wait three years.
momwannabe, I can’t do the math just right now, but I am not prepared to think they are going to keep it at 300 much longer. There is nothing saying they can’t, but I just can’t see the program continuing at that rate. I think perhaps divide by 400 and by 600 and hope it falls somewhere between.
I’m still hoping we are seeing the ‘3 small month’s’ thing we saw last year and that next month will be a little bigger (number wise). If it isn’t then I may have to look at 300 long term, but I’m not ready to do it yet.
June 25th, 2007 at 9:27 am
Here is my delusional thought about there not being any rumors this month– the key word here is “DELUSIONAL.”
We often have really rosy rumors early in the monthly wait for referrals followed by not so rosy or downright depressing rumors for the cut-off date.
This month, we have heard nothing. So maybe, just maybe . . . this month we will get through a bunch of days. Maybe more than a week. . .
LID 12/20/05
June 25th, 2007 at 9:42 am
Sorry about that, I realize “you” didn’t say it. We are getting close to age 50 - so 3 year could possibly make or break the deal for us. Zimbawe adoptions are moving at lightning speed…ummm…..it’s a thought.
June 25th, 2007 at 9:57 am
momwannabe…The November group on the forum is predicting that November should be finished by the first of November (possibly October). If they finish November 2005 in November…I think it would appear that December 2005 might be finished in Jan-Feb 2008…indicating that a Jan 2006 referral would come sometime between Feb-May 2008…maybe sooner, and possibly later. Hard to know for sure..but I would be really surprised if it took 21 more months for them to finish your month (unless I am mistaken and you are logged in Jan 2007?). This is a fairly wide range for estimating the ‘when of referrals’ because I think it might be slightly faster than what I am proposing, but I am very conservative by nature….especially when it comes to IA. RQ can probably give you a better estimate.
Believe me I do not enjoy these estimates…I have had to readjust my thinking of the ‘when at least five times since Jan’..every month I seem to have to put out my estimates by another month…and I am only 16 LID days away from my referral!!!! Those 16 days are going to take some time to get through for sure!!!! Just my WAG
June 25th, 2007 at 10:01 am
Oh, there have been a few rosy rumors, it’s just that no one believes them.
As for predictions, here is my latest:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/06/07/analysis-4/
June 25th, 2007 at 10:29 am
Thanks…Hopefully, it won’t be as bad as I think.
June 25th, 2007 at 11:31 am
I’m holding out for after 7/4 and hoping for the best. It’s pretty sad that hoping for a week + is now “best” 28 LID days and counting.
June 25th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Good luck to all of you this month. Happy Canada Day (July 1) and Happy 4th of July! Let’s cross our fingers that there will be *more* to celebrate!
From a Canadian in the US!… (Lucky me - I get to celebrate both holidays - gotta get that Cdn flag up out front!)
p.s. I found a bottle of “Ladybug” wine in our local store…can’t wait to crack that baby open!
June 25th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Gracieclaire…I turned 50 on Gotcha day. I was a mere 48 when we were LID. If you’re logged in, your age “freezes”. If you’re worried about being an “older” mom, I don’t think a couple years should make that much difference. Keep yourself as healthy as you can. Even so, it can be challenging at times!
June 25th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
thanks Karenmb. I have hung in this long…..I can keep on hanging. Even if I have use a cane at her wedding! HA
Let’s all pray that all turns out well for everyone!!!
June 25th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
“I’m going to begin working on the big post that pulls all of the information together. But, the CCAA still has a few more visits to make. I’m not sure if we’ve seen all of the information we’re likely to see at this point or not.”
I wonder why CCAA doesn’t just send out a formal statement of information to all of the agencies working with them. Why do they share bits and pieces with different organizations they meet with, instead of sharing it all with everyone? Seems like there should be a more efficient and less confusing way to disseminate information from CCAA.
June 25th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
graceclaire-
As a new older mom myself, I echo the suggestions given to you by karenmb and also encourage you to keep a good sense of humor. I am going to hit retirement before Isabel is even out of high school. The way I look at it, I can hit the wholesale clubs and get her diapers and mine at the same time.
:-)
Hang in there. As a single who waited a total of 28 months (when the wait time was a mere 6 months)I can tell you that you WILL make it and you will be so thankful when that day arrives at last.
Peace.
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
June 25th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
My wife and I are LID 3/21/06, waiting for Emma, our first child. We would like to also, in the future, adopt Emma a sister.
So, I recently e-mailed my Large China Only Agency and asked them if their was any talk about doing away with 1 year wait rule to file dossier #2. The wait is growing and growing so doesn’t that make the rule outdated and a little cruel? I want to have Emma home and file for #2 the next day. And if we have to wait 3 years, well, that’s better then 4 with the rule in place.
They responded with the usual company line of “sorry, we don’t know what the CCAA will do, but we’re HERE for you if you want some more of the same worthless BS that we’ve been telling you all along”.
The scary thing is, is that our agency is one of the best ones out there and they have no choice but to spoon feed us that Horses@#t. Sorry, I digress.
My question is if this 1 year rule was always in place or was it added later in the program.
Peace,
BigDaddy
June 25th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
BigDaddy,
I TOTALLY understand your frustration! Exactly one week after I received my referral in December, the CCAA announced their new requirements which eliminated me (as a single) from being able to adopt a sister for Isabel. I could easily have had all the paperwork in before the May deadline. The only thing preventing me from doing so was that #@*&^#@$ one year wait!
Empathizingly yours,
Laureen :-)
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
June 25th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Laureen,
I’m so sorry that happened to you. They really should have let people who already have successfully adopted also adopt #2. They say all these rules are ultimately in the best interest of the children, but isn’t it in the best interest of your daughter to have a beloved sister to go through life with?
As I was typing this, I just got an e-mail from Half the Sky that the child we were sponsoring was just adopted! I’m so happy for her. They assigned us a new little one and sent some pics, she’s adorable.
I love this organization: http://www.halfthesky.org
Big D
June 25th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
Hi all - I read daily but rarely post - forgive me - not much time.
If you have not went to the GliterGirl TwinkleToes blog you must go! I have been about half scared to death about what to expect once we are home. That keeps me up at night more than when will we get our referral. With Our lid 11-17…any day those fears will become a reality.
Not to sound mushy RQ but I have felt extreamly alone on this journey and desserted by friends that I thought would stand by me through thick and thin. I do not know the ‘roots’ behind your outreach…but I hope your friends appreciate you b/c to reach out to a community of ‘faceless’ people like you do…you must be a great friend to those you actually know.
I blog so I appreciate the amount of time it takes to do it and do it well. So, with no further a-do…thank you for the time you spend helping to heal us, keep us sain and give us a maybe. Thank you for sharing about your journey and your daughters. Many may miss that you are actually investing not only in the blog reader, but in our family and children. I hope your investment is returned to you 2 fold…
June 25th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
TwOH,
You are so eloquently expressed the setiments of so many of us. I am sorry that you have not felt the support you (definitely) need in this roller coaster journey of IA. Know that this site embodies people who ARE here to encourage, and help, and most importantly, understand EXACTLY what you are going through.
I could NOT have made it through the preocess as a (reasonably) sane woman without the folks here. And just as a testimony of how cool this community is…as I was walking out of a dilapitated house in a samll village in Jiangxi province (a day trip to help give us a first-hand idea of the environment in which our daughters came) I hear someone call out my name. Yes, you heard me right. Someone calls out to me in the middle of China!!!! Turns out to be a fellow RQ poster who recognized me from photos on my website. It was pretty mind-blowing, to say the least.
I would suggest, if you have not already done so, joining the forum. IT helps so much to communicate with folks in the same LID timeframe.
Ciao,
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
June 25th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
Hi,
does any body know if one can expect a shorter wait for an older child, 3-7 years (not through the SN program however)?
June 25th, 2007 at 6:44 pm
twOH,
How nicely put! I couldn’t agree with you more. RQ has created something here that just amazes me each day! She has created a community of people from all over the world, and has captivated her audience. She must step back some times, and just say WOW to herself!
She gives so much of herself to keep this site going, even after her little Twinkle Toes is home! She provides so much more than I have ever got from my agency.
I consider RQ a friend, even though I know I will never meet her, or never be able to personally thank her for all that she has done. THANK YOU RQ from the bottom of my heart!
Mauzzie
12/12/05 LID
June 25th, 2007 at 6:55 pm
Hi Waiting4You,
My understanding is that any child over 6 years old is considered SN, even perfectly healthy. Children under 6 are referred as all the others. At least this is what I’ve been told. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
June 25th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
A friend sent me this poem recently
Not flesh of my flesh, nor bone of my bone
But still, miraculous, my own.
Never forget for a single minute you didn’t grow under my heart but in it. (anon)
We received our referral 12 months ago today and Grace has been home with us since Aug 2006 so I’m especially thinking of everyone who is anxiously waiting on their referral
Sharron
June 25th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
Mauzzie, I couldn’t said better myself. Thank you
so much RQ!!!
June 26th, 2007 at 8:36 am
twOH,
The minute you decided to do IA you were in “the club!” Whether you felt like it or not, you were “in!” Anyone who did not welcome you to the “Parent Club” and listened to the incredible journey you were taking certainly missed out on the joy.
Drew LID 4-6-06
June 26th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Hello, RumorQueen,
When do you expect to issue the post that pulls together all the information you have received from various sources? Appreciate all you do, and look forward to seeing the post.
Thank You.
Julie
PAP
June 26th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
It’s been posted Julie, I must have been putting the finishing touches on it as you posted.
June 26th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Hi Everyone,
I am so glad I found this site and that I can talk to others in the same situation that I am in.
My LID is 3/14/06. Am I right in guessing that I should not expect to see a referral until 3/2009? My agency says that maybe I will get a referral by year end. Yeah, right! My agency also suggested that I look into doing another adoption in the interim while waiting for China however, no other agency will work with me unless I withdraw from China and I am not ready to do that just yet. I just can’t believe this is happening. Like the rest of you, when I began the process referrals were coming at about an 8 month pace. I just can’t believe what is happening.
Thank you,
Susan
June 27th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
Slanz,
We also are LID 3/14/06 and, based on the less heavy months of Dec 05, Jan 06 and Feb 06 (vs. the big November 2005), I am of the opinion that we will be referred sometime between March and May of 2008.
This is assuming several continuing months of fewer LID days referred, then a return to appr 15 days of referrals each month (which the CCAA recently stated would happen by January 2008). See RQ’s post on the CCAA meetings.
So hang in there - I personally do not believe it will be much longer than May 2008 for our referrals — that would be 26 months of waiting. Just my two cents.
June 28th, 2007 at 11:55 am
Hotmama,
Thank you for writing to me. I hope you are right. I have also been told by my agency that November is a very big month. I hope to meet up with you soon in China.
Thanks again!