Rumors and a bit of speculation
A November 18th family has been told they will not be included in this batch. That would seem to be a pretty safe bet, I think.
Another agency feels that the CCAA may complete the November LID’s with the August referrals. I don’t really know how to rate this one on the R scale. R2 or R3? I could go either way with it. It’s a reputable agency, but I just have a hard time believing it.
So, instead of just rating it as a rumor, lets look at what has to happen to make it come true.
There are 479 families left (poll numbers, not actual) in November. Assuming they “just” finish November in August and don’t get much (if any) of December, then that means on average they need to do 240 families both months.
Remember this chart?
Those kind of numbers are possible, they’ve done them in the semi-recent past. But, are they probable? It’s really hard to hope so, isn’t it?
I don’t know if they are guessing about this or if they know something for sure.
FWIW, 240 on the polls takes us to November 17, but I doubt we would see two even months. If they were to do 479 in two months I’d expect it to look more like 285 and 239 than 239 and 240.
I feel pretty comfortable saying there is a very good chance November will be completed in September. But August? It can be done, but I don’t give it very good odds.
June 26th, 2007 at 9:20 am
HI RQ,
Thanks…I have been waiting for a rumor like this one. Do I believe it…NOPE. I just expected some overly positive rumor…and I know by the end of the week the opposite will happen. My head says…NOPE. Any news if matching has even started yet? What about TAs. I know your source is fairly reputable, but to me I feel it is impossible to say how far unless we know they have either done a total count of the files and compared it with the total number of people in those LIDs…hopefully this first rumor means they are at least matching.
Thanks again RQ. I really appreciate any news you share.
November 23 LID.
June 26th, 2007 at 9:30 am
Thanks for the update. Hearing you say that Nov could be done by Sept is happy happy news to me-LID 12/8/2005!!
June 26th, 2007 at 9:38 am
Can an agency REALLY be considered “reputable” if it makes such definitive announcements about what the situation will be months from now? It almost makes me appreciate the CCAA’s silence. At least they don’t often make promises they can’t meet.
I don’t think it’s impossible for the pace to speed up. I just don’t think anyone can say what will happen for sure. It seems irresponsible for an agency to say that.
June 26th, 2007 at 9:43 am
I tend to be pessimistic when looking at this wait……..but with an 11/28/05 LID, I am feeling like September should be a “decent” estimate for us!! August would be fabulous and I think October would indicate a serious issue with the program……that would mean 7 day batches for the next three months…..I don’t think so.
June 26th, 2007 at 10:14 am
I am glad that something is being said, but I too don’t understand how they know how far unless my thinking that they matched them last month and didn’t send them out is true. If that’s the case, they might be able to look ahead and tell something about numbers. I am just ready for the when!!! I love it when rumors come out….I don’t always believe them…but I love to read them!! It makes the whole wait more interesting and I really need interesting in my wait!!
June 26th, 2007 at 10:21 am
Our agency told us over a year ago that we would “probably have our daughter by November, 2008.” At the time it broke my heart to know that we’d have to wait another year, but it is coming to pass exactly. Our agency doesn’t give out any predictions and they frown upon sites like this one, yet I’ve often wondered how they knew to say what they did to me? I think some agencies to have inside information and they just don’t share it for reasons of litigation and heartache to their customers. The fact remains that they knew how our adoption would play out and it’s come to pass.
June 26th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Hold your hats folks, here we go again. The pattern seems to be great, wonderful news followed by the HUGE, ENORMOUS let down on referral date. I need the rumors too and love this site but have learned not to listen to the ones that seem to good to be true because they usually are.
June 26th, 2007 at 10:37 am
August would be nice but I agree it sounds a bit too good to be true.
On the other hand they have surprised us before…….
B
4/19/06
June 26th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Heck, this means it would be our turn in October/November with December potentially being the latest! WOOHOO! I’m good with thinking it should be 2007! Made my day! Thanks!
LID 12/20/05
June 26th, 2007 at 10:46 am
As for me, I will following the guidance of the “Rumor Ratings” which (for an R2) says to keep an eye on this one!
Drew LID 4-6-06
June 26th, 2007 at 10:50 am
There are two key words in the statement, “Another agency feels that the CCAA may complete the November LID’s with the August referrals.” They are “feels” and “may.”
I’m not reading a whole lot of substance in this statement. To me, this sounds like the agency is trying to be hopeful for thier clients and nothing more.
I think we all know that CCAA *may* finish November in August, or they *may* finish November in September. Heck, I think they *could* finish November in July if they really wanted to– but, for whatever reasons it isn’t likely.
I agree with RQ in that I think the CCAA will not complete referrals for November until ‘at least’ September.
I am still hopeful that I will see my baby’s face for Christmas, but I don’t expect to have her home for the holiday this year.
LID 12/20/05
June 26th, 2007 at 11:01 am
I agree with frannysmom (and funny my name is Franny!) Also, I’m only a RQ devotee for about 6 months now but there is a pattern. This first rumor is always the one that causes the big heartbreak as we get closer to reality of referrals. Don’t get pulled in. Guard your heart.
June 26th, 2007 at 11:02 am
I know this whole thing has been hard for everyone, but until the last horrible and WAY wrong rumor, the negative statements weren’t as strong. I think we need to just sit back and look at them and take them how they come instead of being so negative about them. I know it hurts and I know that they are hard to believe, I have been doing this for 2 years now, but I still don’t discount EVERYTHING that is put on her by RQ!! If I were RQ, it would almost make me not want to put anything up unless it was an R4-R5.
Let’s just take the rumors and see where they land us!! It’s pretty bummy to read all the negative things being written about ALL the rumors RQ puts up here!! Just my thought!
June 26th, 2007 at 11:10 am
Thanks for posting RQ, I was so happy to see that
11/18/05 was mentioned. I know we will probably
not make this next batch.
Thanks for all the hard work you do!
Ladybuginnebraska
June 26th, 2007 at 11:11 am
I think it is wonderful that RQ posts the rumors as they come in. Rates them sensibly, responsibly. Lets us make of them what we will. I wouldn’t be checking this site if I didn’t appreciate that. But I think many agencies are irresponsible with the information that they put out. That bugs me and I wonder–doesn’t it end up making for even more unhappy clients when so often the information isn’t accurate? My agency is very cautious about making any predictions and generally urges that we count on the worst case scenario, not getting our hopes up. That seems responsible to me.
June 26th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Ourlittlereddragon,
What is your LID?
June 26th, 2007 at 11:24 am
I agree with frannysmom (and my name is Franny!) It’s somewhat not nice to put info out that is not confirmed but then again we love the rumors so what to do? Anyway, in the short time I’ve been a RQ devotee I have noticed that this is the initial great rumor that causes all the heartbreak when it turns out to be false and the reality is all the way the other way bad! Guard your hearts!
June 26th, 2007 at 11:42 am
I don’t understand one thing: What is the benefit for an agency to give unrealistically positive predictions for families this close???
I can understand why they may underestimate the entire wait, or the wait for someone a year or so from referral, to obtain or maintain business clients, but someone THIS close isn’t going to jump ship over a month or two, so why give a prediction that isn’t likely to come true? it’s only going to tarnish their credibility.
I’m not saying it IS accurate, I know agencies do provide mis-information, I just don’t understand why they do?
N
June 26th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
I think all rumors posted by RQ are good to post. I may not like the content of the rumors, but thats not RQ’s fault. Rumors are just that: good and not so good…However, I am always grateful to RQ for posting them…Thanks again RQ
June 26th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
i love love love the rumors, right or not, they are just that, and they lift my heart up a little bit and make me want to buy one of those beijing olympic t-shirts that say “we’re next,” even if we aren’t. thanks, rq
lid 11/17/05
June 26th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
I like the rumors, I like to hear dates. I did laugh at the rumor of getting November finished (Possibly) in August. I don’t see it, but would love to be proved wrong. I didn’t think the 18th would make it in this batch. I even get on the roller coaster and feel sick when it lands, but that’s okay. I like to hear rumors! Thanks RQ for reporting what you hear!
Lauree
LID 12/5/05
June 26th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
I like hearing the rumors no matter how wild or optimistic (or pessimistic, at times) they seem, especially when they come with the R-ratings to temper them. If this is from a reputable agency, that’s interesting! That’s why I frequent this site!
Nancy
LID 11/09/06
June 26th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Europeans–
July 1 (Canada) and July 4 (US) are long weekends/national holidays here in North Aermica, so we are counting on you on Europe’s November families on Friday June 29th to pass on what your agencies may be telling you on that day.
Spain: what are you hearing?
France–des nouvelles??
please!
June 26th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
I’m just happy to hear some rumors at all. That means we’re getting closer to referral time! Thanks for sharing, RQ….maybe someday the CCAA will surprise us. It can’t go on like this forever…..or can it?
June 26th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
I think agency’s are still talking speed up..because it means $$ for them..sorry but I do. I’m still hearing people just now DTC that are being told not to listen to 3 yr rumors……
Really is the pitts to be playing with people’s emotions here! Everytime I hear speed up I get ANGRY!!
June 26th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
I think that agency is simply doing the 2.3 months for every one month of referrals math and is giving that as a projection. Nice if it were true for Nov 05 but I’m not holding my breath.
I love/hate the rumors, they keep me going, in all the right and wrong directions. So keep ‘em coming! This month I am much more guarded and always cautiously optimistic.
I also would be thrilled with Nov 05 being completed in September and I’m all the back in June 06!
June 26th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Hi Everyone,
I am so glad I found this site! I have a LID of 3/14/06.
My agency said that maybe I should get a referral by year end but I know that is impossible! Truthfully, they are just as overwhelmed by the situation and have no idea what is going on.
Thanks,
Susan
June 26th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
Still counting on September with my 11/22 LID.
June 26th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
Complete Nov in Aug???? I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ve been riding the coaster too long to get excited about this one! Sept maybe, I’ve been expecting them to take until Oct so Sept would be great!!
June 26th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
With a 11/16/05 LID, here’s hoping for a July Miracle!!!
Let’s hope the CCAA has a few “Fireworks” of their own up their collective sleeves.
June 26th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
I’m with you, Adventures. September for 11/22/05
Coming Round the Mountain
LID 11/22/05
June 26th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
I’ve been thinking that September is a reasonable liklihood for Nov 05 to be finished (we are LID Nov 28). Since RQ takes a balanced approach to rating rumors, I’m happy to hear that she also thinks this is plausible. Thanks for the update RQ.
CaelynsMum
June 28th, 2007 at 3:07 am
WaitingforLibby I agree, just happy to hear some rumors because that means closer to referral time. I’ve been pretty relaxed the whole waiting time, but with an LID Nov 17 I’m getting nervous. I will NOT NOT go for a July referral and break my heart, I believe in August BUT when it will be July I FLY in pink or blue clouds!!! PLEASE let me fly!!!