And now it is July
I was going to write that half of 2007 is now officially gone. But I decided I should check that out just to be sure. It turns out today is the 182nd day of the year, so there are 183 days left in the year. So as of tomorrow, half of the year will be officially gone.
I’m such a geek.
Anyway, the point of this months’ “And now it’s….” post is to say that these posts often felt like they had three months of time between them when we were waiting.
And now that we are home, the time is flying. How is it possible that it is July already? Next month is August, and then school starts back. I look at what has happened in the months since referral and I can’t believe it’s been so long. It feels like about six or eight weeks.
But then I look at the stats, and I realize that on January 3rd they referred through September 27th, and it is July 1st and the CCAA has only referred through 11/7. If they make it to the 14th (just a guess, don’t think I know more than I’m saying) then that will be 48 days (1 month & 18 days) worth of LID’s in six months. If they only make it to the 11th then that will be a month and a half in six months!
People argue about whether China can still be considered stable or not. I think that for those traveling it can be considered stable, that part of the process is still predictable and follows pretty well established protocol. But for those still waiting, especially if you are more than five or six LID months away from a referral, it’s very hard to say that the program is still stable. I understand the arguments for saying it is still stable, and I agree with many of those arguments, but I still have a hard time agreeing that it is a stable program for those people.
We knew October and November were big, and we know that December is much smaller. But still, a month and a half in six months?
That’s just too depressing.
Let’s look at the short term. When will referrals be mailed? My analysis from June 13 can be found here and I haven’t seen any reason to feel any differently about it. A lot of agencies are expecting them to be mailed next week, and one agency thinks it may be week after next before they are mailed. I think there is a chance we see them at the end of next week, but also a good chance it may be early the following week.
July 1st, 2007 at 9:48 am
This shouldn’t be so shocking to me. I’ve been very attentive well before January and know the dates referred, but when you say that we’ve only covered a month and a half maybe a little more in six months, it about drops me to the floor. What in the world is happening? Is this real? Will I wake up and it will all be a really bad dream? Never thought five months (my LID 4.5.06) could feel so terribly long!
AndreaH
July 1st, 2007 at 9:51 am
And… happy Canada day to all Canadians! Bonne fête du Canada à tous les canadiens!
July 1st, 2007 at 10:13 am
Well, when it’s broken down like that, it truly is too depressing. With a 3/24/06 LID, it feels like we will never get to referral…It’s like one big bad dream….
July 1st, 2007 at 10:41 am
With a log in date of 8/30/06 it looks like I will get my referral in 3 years and 4 months if the 1 week referral for every month continues. This stinks!! I can remember in Feb of 2006 our agency told us we would probably get our referral in the summer of 2007. My Oh MY how times have changed. Later, I’m going to go see that new Bruce Willis movie to forget about this stuff.
July 1st, 2007 at 11:05 am
But what about attrition? I cannot imagine that many people hoping to become parents or those who are beginning the process at an already advanced age will stick out a four year wait?
July 1st, 2007 at 11:07 am
Attrition will play a role in it, I’ve said a bunch of times that my long term projections require there to be a lot of attrition.
But that’s just another reason to say the country is not stable. If half of the people who start out in a program do not end up with a child in that program, that does not sound very stable to me. And I think we could easily see that kind of attrition with a three or four year wait.
July 1st, 2007 at 11:10 am
Very depressing. And I do agree that the China program is no longer the legend of stability that it used to be. Even in-country, some families have reported having to pay increased fees, longer stays…At least the CCAA is becoming more vocal about what can be expected, and looking at the program from their perspective, which would probably do us well, does give the program attributes of stability.
It was a very different experience for me the first time–everything went as was scheduled from day 1–and I just keep reminding myself that I have to adjust my expectations, sometimes on a daily basis! And that at the end of this ride, I will have the most beautiful baby in the world.
July 1st, 2007 at 11:17 am
So basically if the CCAA keeps up this pace we will receive a referral in 19 months with a LID 03/06. I feel like I am on a revolving table and I will never be let off, not feeling to stable at the moment either.
July 1st, 2007 at 11:28 am
Thanks RQ for this analysis. I agree 100% with LadyBug4..you will have the most wonderful baby in the world at the end of this very long, long, long wait. I know because when I look into the eyes of my precious 4 year old, I see this on a daily basis. It will happen…
Congrats to everyone who gets their referral this month!!
Waiting as patiently as possible.
CTG LID November 23 2005
Happy Canada Day!!!
July 1st, 2007 at 11:29 am
We knew October and November were big.
We know December through March are smaller.
I do not think you can use that 1.5:6 rate to figure long term. Or I hope not, anyway.
July 1st, 2007 at 11:33 am
This breakdown of information took my breath away. But once I looked at it and compared it to your past analysis, it all pretty much ends up the same. You recently reported 7-8 days per month and that still holds true. I figured 3-4 more months for referral and am holding (and hoping) for referral in Sept/Oct with picking up dd#2 by Dec. So close, but sooooooo far. sigh. Good luck to Nov folks.
July 1st, 2007 at 11:39 am
On June 26th last year they referred through 6/28.
If they make it to 11/14 in this batch that will be 139 days (4 months & 17 days).
Divide 139/12 and you get 11 or 12 days per month on average over the past year.
That is probably a better number to use for projections for LID’s between late December and early April.
July 1st, 2007 at 11:56 am
RQ, may I ask a question that may seem dumb? What would need to happen in order for the wait to actually drop (like when it hits a peak of 3 years or higher and then starts to come back down)? I mean, with the backlog as it is, would they need to start referring more than one month’s worth of LID’s per month? Or if they started referring 1/2 months again as predicted in 2008 would that reverse the growing wait trend or simply slow/steady it?
July 1st, 2007 at 11:57 am
What about early Dec? (12/5) I’m trying to be realistic and not set myself up for too much disappointment. I am really hoping to travel be end of year and will be incredibly sad, disgusted, and then get over it if it doesn’t happen until 2008. I think it’s just a mental block. In another blog, people talked about just getting out of 2007, well I just want my baby in 2007!
July 1st, 2007 at 12:11 pm
We’ve talked about specific projections for early December. I think looking at a window of October through January is probably the best window. You could narrow it to November or December as more probable if you want a smaller window, but I think you’re still in that four month window.
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/06/07/analysis-4/
July 1st, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Yeah, I agree with RQ about the question of stability in China adoptions. I still think there needs to be a much higher attrition rate in order for China to be considered unstable though. The China officials seem pretty stubborn and insistant that the program won’t shut down. I think it will take more than a long wait and a few hundred people dropping out for them to get discouraged.
We’re still hangin in there even though our LID is 9/12/06 and I’m going to be pushing 50 by the time we get our child. (My husband will be pushing 60) I SOOOO wish we were younger! I wouldn’t mind waiting this long if we were in our 30’s or even early 40’s I guess I shouldn’t get so hung up on age but I do.
Still hoping for a drastic change. Out of all the programs I’ve seen, china is still the best, even though they have slowed down.
July 1st, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Thanks RQ, as always, time will tell.
July 1st, 2007 at 2:20 pm
About attrition…
Does anyone know what happens if a family has, in effect, decided to drop out but perhaps does not notify anyone of this until their would-be referral? I guess my question is what happens to the child that would have been referred to the family? A related question is what is the “responsible” way for a family to drop out of the program?
July 1st, 2007 at 3:20 pm
j4m4w-
I’m not sure that I could see why someone would “wait” to tell their agency that they have dropped out of the adoption progam until they’ve received their referral. I would think that the correct way to do this would be for a family to notify their agency as soon as they’ve made that decision, and the agency would be responsible to get the CCAA to return their dossier. However, I would guess that it a child was referred to the family and the family had already “dropped out”, the child would be quickly re-referred to another family in a subsequent batch.
July 1st, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Two couples have decided to leave the China program from our group and they notified our agency as soon as they made there decision. Why wait?
LID June 14 ‘06
July 1st, 2007 at 3:51 pm
I have debated whether to pull out of China and pursue a second child through domestic adoption, Haiti or Ethiopia. But I’m not sure. I wouldn’t feel a need to make a firm decision until the agency required more money, which wouldn’t be until pretty close to referral. Once the decision was made, I would go ahead and notify our agency and get my file closed so I could get on with the mourning process and move forward.
Patti
http://redvelvetcake.typepad.com
3/21/06
July 1st, 2007 at 5:03 pm
I really appreciate you putting those numbers up there. It has been feeling like a snail is crossing the road to get to us. And on some days, it feels like the snail just got run over. This is taking, and will continue to take a very, very, very long time. I keep reminding myself that even with the doom and gloom predictions, things could get worse. We don’t know what the Olympics will do to the wait, what political elections, world events, earthquakes, etc may do to our wait.
Bummer.
July 1st, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Why notify early? I would hold-off until the last possible minute…who knows, your situation might change.
With people cued-up for 3yrs+, I doubt a “paper ready” child would be affected much or at all.
July 1st, 2007 at 5:22 pm
If somebody decides to drop out, they should tell the CCAA BEFORE they get matched because if they receive the referral and then refuse it, the consequence is a child that stays longer without a family (a couple of months lost). That’s bad …
Ray.
July 1st, 2007 at 5:55 pm
we have 1-6-06 LID, and my agency told me this week (and while they communicate alot, they tend not to speculate) that I shouldn’t continue to hold back on my vaca days for 2007 as it’s unlikely I will travel this year. It’s killing me to admit it, but I think they are right. Currently, I only hope we don’t have to re-do our HS again (in our state, HS must be current at referral).
July 1st, 2007 at 6:57 pm
Was there any discussion with the CCAA when they were in the US around whether those PAP’s not meeting the new regulations but that were LID before 5/1/07 would definitely make it through review? I’m wondering if there is a chance China might retro some of the rules to an earlier date to reduce some of the backlog… I can see how if the wait reaches 4 years they might do this, especially for the age regulation…
July 1st, 2007 at 7:09 pm
RQ, when you talk about stability in the China program, do you feel that we are at risk for not getting a baby? Or do you think the wait for a referral is just going to keep getting longer and longer? Also, what is your prediction for a referral for a LID 3/14/06? Thank you!
July 1st, 2007 at 7:15 pm
No, I’m not saying I think the program will close before people who hang in there finally get referrals.
July 1st, 2007 at 9:38 pm
Question about longer in-country stays — how and when do you know that you will be there longer than expected? Is it when you are there in the province that they say you need to be there longer? And do they give you a date or does it just drag out? Does this affect the consular appointment date and is it easy to get that rescheduled? I am sure this wreaks havoc with airline reservations.
Or are you told prior to traveling that you will need to be there for “x” number of days?
July 2nd, 2007 at 7:00 am
…..I feel this is one big psychological experiment in a “test of will”…..My husband and I have personally been throught alot of”issues” in our life, but this tops it…I mean really folks …we have only moved from Sept 27 till Nov 14 (if that is the case)…Chinese torture….
…LID March 17, 2006