Still Quiet
It is still very quiet out there.
One thing I’d like to address though, is that the arrival of one months’s TA’s and the arrival of the following month’s referrals aren’t connected.
It often seems that they are connected, as it often works out that referrals arrive shortly after TA’s arrive. However, we should remember that this is just the way it sometimes works out. There is no causal relationship between the two. It is possible for referrals to arrive before the previous month’s TA’s (and yes, that has happened). It is also possible for there to be weeks between TA’s and the next referrals. (Yes, that’s happened, too.)
I say this because I see some people getting their heart set on referrals arriving next week since some TA’s arrived this week.
Let’s revisit the When? post again. The soonest I would expect to see the next batch arrive is Monday July 30th, the latest is Monday August 13, and the most likely day is Monday August 6th.
So yes, next week is possible, but I’m not sure I’d say it is probable. Maybe Friday the third, but probably Monday the sixth. (Or maybe after that - nothing says the CCAA has to follow the same patterns they’ve been following.)
Now, if we could just get some rumors about the cut off. Has anyone heard anything?
July 26th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
My agency told us yesterday that she *hoped* we would get a referral in Sept. I’m LID 12/8/2005. When I pushed a bit for info, like why would she think that Aug would include several weeks, she said “oh, I heard a rumor”. Wasn’t a very satisfying answer in my book. For all I know, she saw the rumor here on RQ a week or so ago like the rest of us. But, you asked for info, and that’s what I have.
My agency is in the US, Small, multi-country. I don’t believe that we will get a referral in Sept, but I feel like I should share the info, just in case.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Hi RQ,
Thanks.
I completely agree with your expectations that referrals are not likely to occur before Monday July 30th (that would be 24 days between referral batches and would be EARLIEST that they might appear) with a more likely scenario of Monday August 6th. I think we are all just hoping there would be some rumors by the end of this week or early next at the latest regarding referral cut-offs (and it is this that surprises us the most…especially as there were no rumors about TAs until they landed at agencies). However, I think it is clear that nothing much will happen this week or over the weekend.
As for the association with TAs …well the last few batches TAs have landed about 4-5 days before referrals..so I think we were all hoping that referrals would be landing on our door steps on Monday the 30th…but I know this is unlikely to happen…
July 26th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
If there is one thing I have learned about this program, you can guess away but don’t get your heart set on anything performance related.
July 26th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
I heard three weeks before referrals arrive. No cut off date known.
July 26th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
afraine: you heard that referrals would arrive 3 weeks from now? So like 8/16? Oh my–I hope not. That would be a LONG time b/t referrals. I know it’s possible, but man. It would be very disheartening if they didn’t arrive until 8/16-8/17 and they only went thru 11/21.
I guess we’ll just have to wait & see.
My anti-spam word is Mama. I like that!
thanks
July 26th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Wow, here we go again, already!
Seemed last time there were some R1 rumors flying a couple days before the actual day. Since there are none today I would guess July 30th is out and probably the 31st.
That’s as far as my “logic” takes me!
Drew
LID 4-6-06
July 26th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
w8ing4emma, that is what I was told. Three weeks from now. From both our agency and where our agencies referrals arrive in CA. Maybe they are telling me worst case, but that is not what they said. They said the next referrals were expected in three weeks. It just shows at this point there is no way of knowing. And I hate that part! LID 11/22/05
July 26th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
If a bigger-than-lately month for referrals is actually going to happen, I would expect that we would see referrals arrive later rather than sooner - so that’s what I’m hoping for. However, maybe history shows that no relationship exists between the number of days between referrals and the number of LIDs referred.
Snydri
late Nov. LID
July 26th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
It’s so quiet my ears are starting to bleed. Remember the good old days of daily multiple rumors and cyber parties…
July 26th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
My bet’s on the 6th…
July 26th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
afraine: thanks for posting. One questionl: When did you hear this–on what date did your agency say “three weeks”? (for example, three weeks from today, if you called today, or…?)
July 26th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
Afraine. I also wondered if you heard this information from your agency today or yesterday, do you know when your agency heard this?
July 26th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
LadyBug4,
do not despair. i will have a cyber slumber party with you.
if it takes three weeks, then it takes three weeks. i can stay awake that long!
i’m betting on the 6th but hoping it is sooner since we are going to DD#1s orphanage reunion and to my mom’s, both great locations for getting a referral.
July 26th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
I received the three week response today regarding when the next referrals are expected. I called our agency trying to find anything out. Before I got a call back with this information, I also called California where our agencies referral are received. They told me three weeks. When our Florida agency called me back I was also told three weeks.
July 26th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
afraine…sorry to belabour this point..but did your agency tell you WHEN they found this out…ie do they think referrals will come on August 13th? Can you find out if they mean the 13th or later? Thanks…
July 26th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
If referrals arive that late, I would think there is a good chance they might get into early December. Or at least all of November, since it’s almost 2 weeks later than they usually arrive.
July 26th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
I think if they arrive that late they could get to the 21st but I wouldn’t bet on anything after that.
LID 11/22/05
July 26th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
afrain-
Can you please explain the line you used: “I also called California where our agencies referrals are received”?
Is this another agency you work with, or is there another layer to the process that I’m unaware of?
Thanks!
July 26th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
Strawberryshortcake, all referrals for our agency arrive in California. Our agency group leader works out of California. He travels with all our agency groups to China and takes care of everything on the trip. The referrals are then sent to the local agency, ours is in Florida. I called both California and Florida.
July 27th, 2007 at 8:57 am
Check it out! CCAA has now reviewed all documents through June 30, 2006!!!!
July 27th, 2007 at 9:02 am
Is the most recent blog post (made last night) not showing up for some people?
July 27th, 2007 at 10:02 am
RQ, do you mean from you? The last one I see from you is yesterday at 2:30. Sorry if thats not what you mean?
July 27th, 2007 at 10:05 am
Yes, a blog post from me. Other people are commenting on it, so I know some people are seeing it.
July 27th, 2007 at 10:06 am
hmmmmmmm, I can’t find it? darn
July 27th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Click on the banner at the top of the page - the China Adopt Talk banner. What is the first blog post you see?