Friday Night Update
I’ve made the rounds and read through PM’s and emails and most of the forum posts from the afternoon.
So far I’ll say that it looks like it is an R5 (or maybe even a fact) that there are packages headed to a couple of agencies who seem to think they might be referrals. Again the R5/fact is only that several agencies have confirmed they have packages coming to them - not about what may be in those packages.
Are those packages referrals? I think I’m gonna give that one an R3.
What is the cut off? One agency says it is the 21st. And an agency with their next LID of the 22nd has confirmed they do not have a package on the way. So, IF these are referrals, I’ll give it an R3 that the cut off is the 21st, and an R-three-and-a-half that the 22nd is not included.
If you are new to the site, please check out the Rumor Ratings link in links at the top right hand column. I do not put my reputation on the line until we reach an R4. Anything below an R4 is just me reporting what is out there without saying I believe it to be true.
July 27th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Thanks for the info.!!!!!
July 27th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
Many thanks RQ..here’s hoping the package has referrals…Arrival on Monday would mean a very short month…Lets hope they make it to the 21rst!!!!
July 27th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
The cutoff date sounds right on target. If the packages are indeed referrals, I am excited about the timeframe in which they are arriving.
Congrats to those of you who are next!!!!
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
July 27th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
YIPEEEE!!! I like the sound of this rumor. Now that we know there are several packages on their way, we can start hoping, wishing and praying for some referrals. Wow! We could actually see some referrals this next week. That’s great!!! I’m ready for them. Bring them on and bring them on fast. I want to see my baby girl(s).
NEXT-NEXT-NEXT-NEXT-NEXT!!!!!!!!!! :O)
July 27th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
Thanks for the update RQ!
July 27th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
Thanks for updating the blog RQ. I cant believe
we might see our childs photo next week. It just
doesn’t seem real yet!
Have a great night!
Ladybuginnebraska
Lid 11/18/05
NEXT!!!!!
http://www.ost.redthreadskids.org
July 27th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
Thanks RQ. Trying to suck it up but crying! Congratulations to all who get to see their babes next week!!! Super happy for you but sad its not our Alivia. LID 11/22/05
July 27th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
I can’t beleive it!!! I’m totally freaking out I could have my baby’s picture in hand next week! I can’t believe it’s gonna happen!
LID 11/17/05
July 27th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
afraine..I know you feel sad..try and think if it this way…you will be NEXT for sure if they make it to the 21rst….probably the surest thing you will have ever known in this process. This is where I really want to be this coming month…If they make it to the 21rst..there is no guessing about this..Its a sure thing for both of us!! November 23, 2005…if not, well I will be guessing again for another month…
July 27th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
Thank you! Thats super sweet of you and I know your right, but nice to hear. Maybe thats why my agency said three weeks from yesterday? It has been a good moth though. TA’s quick, they reviewed another 30 days and referrals quick.
http://www.designsbytrisha.com/somewhere_out_there.htm
Hoping they at least get through the 21st!
July 27th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO!! If they are referrals and they arrive Monday then I’ll have a picture of my babe on Tuesday!!
Life is sweet.
I’m sorry for all of my November pals who are not in this batch. The one thing I can say for cetain, having survived living on the bubble last month, being NEXT is a very good place to be.
Again, my spam word is mama. Yep! Twice over!
July 27th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
And now my spam word is baby. Yep! Bring her/him on!
July 27th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
Looking forward to next week, and hoping the packages are, in fact, referrals
LID Dec/05
July 27th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
LB4…I am rooting for you!!! Hopefully Monday is the day!!!
July 27th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
I can’t imagine how I will feel a month from now, as I am going crazy just knowing that if they make it to the 21st, I will finally be able to say that I am NEXT! I have waited to say that for over 20 months. And I will be so thrilled for those who will get referrals! My November buddies!! YAY! And I have a good online friend in CO who is for sure going to get a referral with her 11/16 LID. Yay Wendy and Eric!!
Tracy
LID 11/22/05
anti-spam word: “nihao” - which my niece who lives in Hong Kong recently said to me on the phone - and I almost cried!
July 27th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
Thanks CTG. I really wish you were in this batch, too. But if not, then next. It doesn’t feel too good right now, but in a week or so, you will KNOW.
July 27th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
I still can’t muster up excitement for ANOTHER 7 day batch. Sadly, I have to admit this may be the new normal. Let’s see, 200 more LIDS ahead of me, 7 day batches, that’s 29 more months to wait for me with a June ‘06 lid. Total of 43 month wait. Can that really be possible?? Don’t answer that… :(
July 27th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
Sorry 3x. You do have a wait ahead of you, but I really think referrals will pick up after 2005 is completed.
July 27th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
woohooinski!
we are so ready
we even threw together a mini blog
http://jiejieandmeimei.blogspot.com/
July 27th, 2007 at 11:43 pm
Wow, Jackbauer! I never realized the entire time who you were! We are with the same agency and will definitely be in China together! Look forward to meeting you all in person!
Amy, waiting for Katy
11/17
July 27th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
LB4…I am okay with waiting another month…I just want to be able to say that I am next for sure…so I am really, really hoping they make it to the 21rst…hard to say for sure…If they don’t make it to the 21rst…it would be harder to know for sure…and its the unknown that is hard to take…
3xwait…I think things will speed up as soon as we are finished with November…which we all think will be by the beginning of October…(and we all hope they will start December then too…). It could go either way..can’t say as I blame you about the number of days though…it will take 6 months to get through November for sure (its already going to be 4: May, June, July, August…and likely Sept for sure…)…
July 28th, 2007 at 2:07 am
Any suggestions pointing toward some SN lists in these packages too?
July 28th, 2007 at 7:50 am
Well I am very excited for all the families that are getting to meet their babies….FINALLY!! I just have to say, and I know this has been hammered to death but with a LID of February 2007, and not doing nearly as sophisticated calculations as RQ, at this rate our (and many others!) referral date is approximately 62 MONTHS OFF!!! I mean, that is OVER five years; I just don’t see how CCAA can be committed to the program and proceed at this pace. I mean, people could be retiring - or any such big life change -by the time their referrals arrive!!
July 28th, 2007 at 8:10 am
Barby and 3xwait:
Don’t be discouraged - I think it is very realistic to believe that after November, things will speed up.
As a Dec. 7, 2005 LIDer, the wait will have grown more than ever when they get to us. However, I know I’m close at this point. I think it’s really hard for people further out. First seeing how slow they are now and seeing how far your LID is away. But take heart, it is simply a big month and things will pick up. I am bracing my self for the next couple of batches. The 22nd, where ever it falls, is going to probably be in a small batch. Hang in there!
July 28th, 2007 at 9:04 am
Congratulations to all those LID’s through Nov 21st. Hope the rumors are true and it will be early next week!! Bet you would have never imagined the wait would go from 6 to 20+ months.
With an LID of 3/29/07 I’m going to be watching closely what happens after November LID’s are done. Having been through the 2001 slow down with our daughter (13 months), this wait is different and unpredictable as everyone must be aware. I’m not sure I can wait 3+ years at 44 and dh 45 plus our daughter is already 6. some tough decisions lye ahead for us. Not trying to be a downer because I’m very happy for those that will be seeing their babies faces for the first time, it is truly a magical time in the process. I’m just having a bad day after seeing the possibility that CCAA only included 7 days in the next batch. I really miss the days when they referred almost full months at a time and it was predictable even when waits streched. I guess China IA quit being predictable a while ago. Though they are probably getting the AP attrition rate they want by letting waits extend exponentially with no communication through the agencies as to what might happen. Some transparancy in this process would be welcome. Thanks RQ for this site and pulling all the information together.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:14 am
Congrats to all who will see their babies faces soon!! Enjoy the ride, you deserve it for enduring the wait. I have three thoughts this morning. First, the agency and the woman that was told with a Dec.05 LID she would be included this month, remember her?, well what is her Agency telling her now? Secondly, I can not believe the wait will go to 4-5 years. Thats just crazy!!! We all know they have no plans of shutting it down. Thirdly, do you all think that once November is done, they will do more that 7 days for the December 05 LIDS. The month of December there were not many LIDs.
Judy
12/14/05 slowly getting there!:)
July 28th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Why are ya’ll acting like the 21st is a sure thing? Have I missed something?
As for the future - we knew November was huge a long time ago. Once they get through November they will likely be doing more LID days at a time even though they may be doing the same amount of referrals per month.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:22 am
Isn’t this super early? It has only been 3 weeks since the last batch. If this package mail is referrals, this is good news in a speedy way.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:29 am
I agree with RQ…we do NOT KNOW IF the 21 IS INCLUDED…it is NOT A SURE THING…I really hope it is..some rumors to suggest it is in..but don’t forget there were earlier rumors that the 21 was NOT in.
I trully think that referrals will speed up once we are done with November…I know this is hard on everyone. Hang in there.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Even at this snails pace we are all one month closer to whatever month we get our little ones. Our plan is just keep waiting patiently, be content, look to the future and enjoy life now…it will happen . Congratulations to everyone who will get their match this month!!!
July 28th, 2007 at 10:02 am
Assuming that the 21st is in ( and i know its not a sure thing) we are talking about a relatively small batch, which is why i refuse to consider that they can’t even get that far.
it just worries me that they seem to be sticking to these teeny batches. i KNOW november is huge, but even within the context of a huge month, we are seeing continually unimpressive batches.
everyone keeps saying that things will speed up once we’re finished with november, but have you all looked at december on the latest poll? its not that much smaller than november. if they are going to continue to do only 200-400 NSN referrals per month, i can see it taking 4 months to get through december.
i also hate how this rumor pattern keeps repeating itself. the ridiculously good rumor ( 3 agencies saying early december cutoff) then the reality — where are these rumors coming from? why does the same thing keep happening? it’s just so frustrating!
July 28th, 2007 at 10:09 am
When you say they may be doing more LIDs at a time, is that because those months typically have less families logged in? My agency’s list has Dec, Jan, and Feb with multiple lines for LIDs (meaning they have diferent DTCs, but the same LID). Does this mean those groups are smaller? Just curious as we are tracking our progress one line at a time on the list…still 20 to go!
LID Mar 06
July 28th, 2007 at 10:49 am
Great advise to all of us waiting Becky….Thank you!
July 28th, 2007 at 11:12 am
RQ, our agency is expecting a package, but I was lead to believe that it was the new sn list, and perhaps some TA’s for families that are sn and waiting…..they didn’t hint to referrals…..I really hope referrals are in there too…that would be great, but I’d guard my heart if I were November………
July 28th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Hi Rumor Queen,
We tried to leave a post requesting we be added to the 12/20 LID group. I followed the instructions and logged into the Forum and went to “how to get in a LID room”, but couldn’t for the life of me figure out how to post a comment on there. So I am posting it here. Sorry if this is not the correct place, I really can’t figure it out.
Thanks.
July 28th, 2007 at 11:53 am
I really hope they sent referrals, but I am having a hard time believing it. I think I just really want the process to keep moving, because it moves us a little closer. It is also so heart warming to see all the babies & new families. So I will keep my fingers crossed for all of us waiting.
July 28th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
RQ and others are right the 21st is not a sure thing yet. Who knows for sure right now except the CCAA. That’s why these are rumors. It will be nice to the light at the end of this slow down tunnel. Funny my anti-spasm word is CCAA
July 28th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
For those of you farther (or is it further?) out and feeling discouraged, it really is important to look at polls and see that certain months (as in Oct and Nov 2005, as well as May 2007) are MUCH larger than others. Even though it is seeming like forever to get through the fall 2005 LIDS, it will go a little faster once we hit December. It is especially important to remember this when the September referrals come. The 22nd is BIG. Therefore, it may not look like much in the number of days, but it IS the number of dossiers referred that matters, NOT the number of days.
Hang in there. As was posted above, you are indeed one month closer to seeing your daughter.
Laureen
DTC 8/23/05
DOR 12/1/06
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
July 28th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
Congratulations to everyone who is finally at the end of *this part* of their journey!! Our LID is 12/14/05… so it is also exciting for me to watch referrals come in, since I know that brings us that much closer to finally knowing our precious daughter!!
I know this is jumping the gun a little bit, but if the referral cut-off is 11/21, which means we’ve been at 7 days at a time, what does anyone think of the chances of November being totally finished in September? (which would be 9 whole days — woo hoo!) And, all this talk of December being a “small month” (dossier submission wise) - do we think that means we’ll be close to 10 days at a time for referral… or even 2 weeks at a time??
July 28th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
lexmeissner-
I doubt very much that Nov will be finished in Sept but, I do think there will definitely be an increase in the number of days, once Dec is reached.
IMHO (FWIW),
Laureen
July 28th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
Hang in there everyone!!!
As an expectant dad who is NEXT!!! (LID 11/16/05)
I can testify that the last 3 weeks or so have been pure bliss, just knowing that you are “in the next group” is a very cool feeling, as was “getting closer” each month. Now with matches just a week or so away, I find myself at times wondering whats next?, and thinking about all the worry and anxiety that accompanied the last 21 months or so, just washing away as the impending journey across the pacific comes closer. For all of you with LID’s well into 2006 and beyond, keep the faith, your daughter/son is out there and you will make it!!!
For those of my fellow November 2005 LID’ers all I can say is thanks for your help, advice and sympathetic ears, its been a looooong journey, but we are almost there, so Hang On!!!!!
Kurtb LID 11/16/05
July 28th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
I’m guesssing CCAA wil finish Nov and possibly go into Dec for the Oct 07 referral batch. At least that is my hope and that we will be included in that batch. LID 12/5/05.
July 28th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
RQ, your R3 is usually pretty accurate. I guess thats why we are assuming November 22 isn’t included. Mom2Isabel, you don’t think Nove will finished in Sept? I think it will be finished in August. I think if this batch goes through the 21 the next batch will go through December 1. My loogin date is 11/22/05 and we travel in the same group with loggin 12/1/05. I’m so excited that our babies are on the way even if they aren’t “mine”, I feel that the bond we share in this journey keeps all these babes very close to our heart.
July 28th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
RQ, your R3 is usually pretty accurate. I think if they finish through Nov 21 this batch the next batch will be Nov 22 through Dec 1. Our agency did tell us our would be in around August 17th? Dec 1 loggin date travels in our group so I think they will be included in the next batch. I’m so happy our babies faces are arriving next week! Even if they aren’t “mine” this journey has bonded us in such away all the babes are very near and dear to our heart.
July 28th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
i posted earlier but somehow it evaoporated. everyone seems to be saying that things will speed up once we get to december, but have you all looked at the most recent poll? december is NOT that much smaller than november. and january is pretty thick as well.
i wish i were as convinced as everyone else that things will get better after november is through. if the cutoff is indeed nov 21 — which makes for a pretty small batch, numbers-wise — it does not bode well for moving quickly through december, in my opinion.
July 28th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
Well said Kurtb, I feel very proud to been part of
the November 2005 crowd. Everyone is so supportive,
kind, and humble. I suggest for anyone who is not part
of their Lid group, here on the forum get signed up
It has truly made my last leg of this journey wonderful!
No matter where you are in this adoption journey, know
that you are not alone. There are many wonderful people
here to encourage you.
Ladybuginebraska
Lid 11/18/05
Next!!!
July 28th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
Uh - that’s only from Nov 15th to the 30th that is almost as big as all of December on the most recent poll.
December is a fair bit smaller when you add ALL the November dates in - remember, we’re already halfway thru the month of November.
So there’s nearly as many folks yet IN November, as in the whole month of December.
July 28th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
Congratulations to everyone who is going to receive a referral! November is inching along but we are getting there slowly but surely!!
July 28th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
first, no one is sure that these packages are referrals, it would be great if they are though cuz it seems like the last several batches have been sent out on the later rather than the earlier side. second, although I know its tough, we all knew that nov was huge and was going to take FOREVER to refer. many of us estimated back in april that they wouldn’t finish nov until oct and that is coming true. It will get better when we get to dec, and better still when we hit the 06 lids. As a person who’s been lid for 17-1/2 mos now I can tell you, I still believe it will happen, just in its own time.
hang in there!
susan
http://www.crowellgang.blogspot.com
lid 2/13/06
July 28th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
I do hope that once we hit December things pick up a bit.
This may sound silly but does anyone know if the CCAA takes a vacation and closes its operations and therefore, not refer out for that month?
July 28th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
The CCAA stays open in December. They don’t officially celebrate Christmas, etc.
July 28th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Hello to all,
this is the first time I send a coment, even that i follow this site since March (when I found it).
To all that are next, I wish you the best and a little advise…get some sleep and relax.
Thank you RQ, you make things easier.
July 28th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
Good evening all. I haven’t been able to check this site this evening until now. I was hoping to see some more information, but I guess with it being the weekend I wont hear much of anything. I was just hoping… If anyone hears anything this weekend please let us know. I’m ready for some more rumors.
LID 11-16-05 (next)