Another agency says it’s the 21st
This is still an R3, but there is yet another agency saying the cut off is the 21st.
Comments
Chitika Ad --> |
Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege. 39 Responses to “Another agency says it’s the 21st”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
|
July 30th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Well, I guess 21st isn’t horrid. Hopefully it won’t be any less than that. Thanks RQ! :)
July 30th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Please let this be true. This is the first time I’ve let myself believe we will be in the next batch, usually it’s a case of hoping but not setting us up for disappointment.
Fingers crossed I guess. Thanks for the update RQ, not expecting much sleep til this month’s date is 100% known !
LID 11/21
July 30th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Wow, could this really be happening??? This has been quite a month, hoping and praying to be included. I am finally allowing myself to get excited. Ok, I’m jumping up and down in excitement!
Lid 11/21 Waiting 21 months and 9 days
July 30th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
The 21st is a ggod run even though we are the 22nd. Sept batch will be Nov 22 through Dec 1.
Thanks RQ
July 30th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
tHE 21ST is a good run! Even though we are the 22nd. Sept batch will be Nov 22 through Dec 1.
Thanks RQ
July 30th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
afraine,
Not to be a Debbie Downer here but I don’t think most of us in the Nov LID group would believe that if the get to the 21st this time, they will then finish Nov in the next batch. Some of the biggest days in Nov. are at the end. The 22, 23, 24, 28 and 30 are all big days. I personally can’t see them breezing through to Dec. 1 in next batch. (Meaning Sept.) Sorry. :(
July 30th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
I’m with WFK, the next batch will most likely appear small in days but will have big numbers. The 22nd is the biggest day of the month if I’m not mistaken.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
Yup, I’m with Debbie Downer…betcha they only get through 2 or 3 days in the September batch.
Afraine: Wasn’t it your agency that said we’d make it to December this batch? Just wondering if they’re still making that same statement? Do you have any news??
July 30th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
According to my last analysis, if they make it to the 21st this time then I’d expect them to make it to somewhere around November 27th or 29th next time.
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/07/09/analysis-5/
July 30th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
Thanks, RQ, for a slightly more positive reading.
Bottom line, none of us knows what’s going to happen (not even RQ!). Everyone can speculate all they like, “They’ll get to the 1st,” “they won’t get past the 23rd,” but it doesn’t really matter what we think. All that matters is what *happens.* Our opinions are completely irrelevant!
Of course realizing that makes me feel less in control, but that’s the reality. We don’t know and we’re not in control. Disconcerting, but accepting our lack of control over situations is terrific preparation for the reality of parenthood. :)
July 30th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
I reluctantly agree. I would like to think with an 11/30 lid that I will make the Sept batch but I just don’t see this happening. More likely I will miss by a day or two (dagnabitt!!!)
at
July 30th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
I agree no one knows for sure but there are definite trends that are happening and we can make realisitic predictions based on those trends and the data that we have. Nothing in life is a certainty but we draw conclusions and make predictions everyday based on logical evidence. I think logical evidence suggests that they will not make it through to December next month. I was in hopeful denial for too long. I am now a realist until the CCAA does something to prove otherwise. But I would LOVE for them to make me change my outlook and hope for everyone’s sake that they do! :)
July 30th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
I completely agree with waitingforkenzie and adventures. We all (those on the November forum)believe strongly that if the CCAA makes it through the 21rst this month..that the cut-off would be more likely the 27th-28th next month (and to us this is an optimistic look at the numbers)…a pessimistic view would be closer to the 24th to the 25th…the 22nd is the biggest day of the month in the polls…we all want it to be different; but we just don’t believe it…so if this makes me a ‘Debbie Downer”..so be it…I belong to that club too..so sorry. Believe me…we would all like to be wrong and have them start with December in September..we just don’t believe it can happen..so sorry…
July 30th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
The only problem with using past performance as evidence for future performance is that the CCAA hasn’t been completely consistent. Things have slowed down, sped up, slowed down again. Therefore, anything can happen. We can label ourselves pessimists or optimists as much as we want. Still doesn’t matter.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Is this a fairly reliable agency (unlike the European one from the earlier post)?
I have a vested interest!
LID 11/21/05
jewels
July 30th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Probably a stupid question (but I’m allowed, I haven’t been on this sight very long)..how the heck do these agencies know when the cutoff date is, if the packages haven’t even arrived yet?
I’d love to know where they are getting this inside info.
Discouraging numbers but understanding that November is a particularly big month helps a little. Didn’t someone say that December was big too?
I should be reading RQ’s analysis but I’m just plain lazy.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
Ryleesmom, it was our agency that said our referral would be received around the 17th. Our loggin date is November 22. I guessed that it would be through Dec 1 because someone with that loggin date is in our travel group. Would that mean their referral would be received in the same batch or with the next and still travel in the same group?
July 30th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Ryleesmom, our agency did say our referral would be here around August 17. We are nov 17. I guessed dec 1 would be with that batch because they are in our travel group. Could their referral come later and then travel in our group?
July 30th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Sorry, we our Nov 22!!! I wish the 17th!!!!!
July 30th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
Not to be argumentative here but there has been consistency the past 20+ months that I have been waiting; each month the wait consistently grows longer. And I do believe they have been pretty consistent as of late with the number of LIDs referred each month based on RQ poll numbers. Everyone here is on the same team. :) We all want the wait to diminish.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
It is good it’s not sliding the other way (assuming they did 7). I know 7 days is probably not encouraging to about 28,000 or more people…While us LID in Nov. are hoping for at least 7!
We’re holding on to hope for beyond the 21st for everyone! Hang in there everybody!
twOH
July 30th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Afraine, I wonder why your agency told you that your referral would be here on the 17th of August? More likely around the first week of September unless they know something we don’t know?
LID 11/22/05
July 30th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Litmom..you are right…past performance of CCAA is no guarantee that the 21 will make the cut this month…I agree 100%…the two day batch is enough to convince me that I can’t really know what the cut-off is each month…I can just tell you based on the poll numbers what we guesstimate will happen..and we can describe our logic…all of that of course goes out the window if there are more or less babies that month…no doubt about it. We can only try to predict and on a one by one basis share our logic…this is what all of this is…sharing of predictions..not so much fact; the facts will only be known when the referrals are delivered to the agencies….
July 30th, 2007 at 7:16 pm
Sometimes I wonder if one or two agencies are reporting a cut off date, if they are making a logical guess based on recent history, or if they have really senn/heard something.
July 30th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Sorry, I meant SEEN/heard something!
July 30th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
adventures, they said that was there “guess”. They do not have any info we don’t have. Otherwise I would have traveled a year ago!:) They did say the group leader would be in China this week and hoped he would return with info.
July 30th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
Will the 2-7 day trend EVER STOP ?! HOLY COW, at this speed, it’ll take 5 years … OMG !!! WHEN O WHEN will we see a decent batch of, let’s say, 1 month’s worth of LIDs ??? I SOOOO wish tonight that I had hurried up and sent my dossier in faster :-(
Ray xxx.
July 30th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
Does anyone ever give up? Is anyone going to Vietnam?
July 30th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Hey 2brother:
I beleive our I-600(whatever document it is from the U.S. embassy) runs out at the end of this December, if I don’t see a difference in China’s waiting time by then we might switch to Russia. Everybody keeps saying once they get through Nov and Dec 2005 things should speed up. My LID is 8/30/06 though so probably another 2 year wait for me. If we switch though its 3 months of paper work again and probably another 12 months to get a referrral from another country so it may not be worth it for me but I don’t see how people with a LID of 2007 can stand waiting that long.
July 30th, 2007 at 11:14 pm
Does anyone out there think that US-China politics has anything to do with the slowdown? Thoughts on intentional “slow-walking”? Thoughts on the spotlight of the world being on them next year with the Beijing olympics and how all this looks on them (sending out so many girls every month)?
Do any of y’all wonder about how this plays out as far as all these girls just getting older and older in the orphanages until many of them will not be adopted?
What on earth could justify this slowdown?! Lord only knows they have enough people to work in the SWI !!!!!!!!!!!!!! With their population, and system of government, they can make anything happen that they want to!!!
Another question: How do all of y’all who’ve been waiting for a blue-moon answer your friends and family’s questions re: “How much longer? Why is it taking so long? What’s going on in China? ……………”
THOUGHTS???
SOMEBODY REPLY!!!!!!!!!!
THANKS!!
July 30th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
dmp, we are logged in 4/07. Seems like predictions for us are 2010 or worse. I don’t mean to lose hope and I’m sure things will turn around eventually, but I wonder if this is just not the right time to be waiting.
July 30th, 2007 at 11:57 pm
rjk, I normally tell my friends who ask why is the wait so long that the China economy is booming and people in China now can afford to keep their kids. I also says its great for China but unfortunately bad for me. I think people understand this reason more than when I throw in Olympics and quota system stuff.
2brothers, I guess my age has something to do with it also, I’m 41 years old, I think if I was in my lower 30’s I might be able to handle the wait better. I always think back when I first had braces. The orthodonists said they would be off in 1 year but I wore them for 3 years just like how this China wait is turning out. Hope that makes sense.
July 31st, 2007 at 7:50 am
2brotherswaiting, our plan is to check the SN list in October or so, which is when I estimate our agency will get the next one, and if our daughter is there, then we will switch to SN. If not, then we will probably switch to Vietnam. Our agency has a very good Vietnam program. I calculate that by the time we renew our China paperwork twice, including medicals, home study, immigration forms, etc., we could adopt from Vietnam and be done with it.
Our LID is 3/29/07.
July 31st, 2007 at 8:31 am
2brotherswaiting - yes people switch to another program or to SN China. So many have switched or gone elsehwere that many agencies are not currently accepting dossiers for Vietnam.
litmom - I understand what you’re saying about keeping track as a reach for a kind of control — but ,..when you get close to your LID, that scrutiyny is immensely practical for reasons such as job decision and parental leave paperwork. Since last May when Nov 05 began being referred, I noticed the percentage of total Nov-forum-polled dossiers referred each batch, which has been remarkably consistent, and I can see where my referral would fall IF that consistency keeps up. We also had CCAA tell us the the wait would reach 24 months by end of 2007. As the percentage of Nov 05 dossiers referred each month has stayed roughly the same (17-22%), and as that happens to fit the CCAA Dec05-in-Dec07 scenario, I have known for a long time now that an October referral is most likely for me. Each referral batch confirms that.
Because of that, I’ve been able to make some useful concrete (and major) decisions about income flow and parental leave programs.
Perhaps you’re in a luckier situation where you don’t need to have any sense of when your referral will arrive.
July 31st, 2007 at 8:40 am
rjk…..When people ask me now “when” I just simply say “I don’t know, and I’m not making any assumptions anymore”. I’ve been telling people for almost 2 years now…”this spring, this fall, this winter”. I’m over it!! Now it’s just “I DON’T KNOW!”
A question…..does anyone know what happens if you get pregnant during this process? Do you have to start over from square one? Just thinking about trying again because I can’t stand this anymore……….LID 12/20/05
July 31st, 2007 at 10:33 am
skyler if you get pregnant, you have to start over again at least thats what our adoption agency told us when we asked. You’re only 5 or 6 months away from a referral. I wouldn’t do it.
July 31st, 2007 at 12:05 pm
rjk: I think this process is 99% politcal (unfortunatley). It’s probably like that in most countries.
dmp: I have heard from someone currently adopting from Russia (as in, she is in the country now), that the Russia program is shutting down. Not sure if it is true, but I do think it is incredibly unstable (more so than China). We had looked at Russia in the beginning and decided not to go with them for that reason. Something to investigate anyway!
July 31st, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Some agencies allow you to get pregnant with no problems, some require there be a certain amount of time between adoption and giving birth, and some will kick you out of the program if you get pregnant. Check your contract and talk to your agency.
Russia was practically closed for a while but they have recently (in the past couple of weeks) accredited some agencies to work there. Not sure how stable it is, and I think there have been some conversations about it in the “other countries” section of the forum.
I’ve heard a lot of good things about Ethiopia’s program, that’s probably where I’d start my research if we were thinking of doing this again.
July 31st, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Thanks dmp and RQ……I don’t mean to sound so pessimistic—-sp? I know I’m almost there but this time last year I thought the same thing. :( I just don’t feel like it’s really gotten any closer.