Where we are with the next batch
There isn’t much new, this is mostly just putting everything into one place.
(R5) The CCAA worked over the weekend.
(R5) The CCAA will be closed this week and will reopen Monday October 8.
(?) Most agencies felt referrals would be mailed this weekend, though none went out on a limb and said they were sure they would be. It will probably be tomorrow before we begin hearing from agencies about whether something was actually mailed or not.
(R4) I think we can probably fairly safely say the 30th is included. Enough people up to and including the 30th have been told they are in that I think we can give this one an R4.
(?) I do not know what to say about the possibility of LID’s past the 30th being included. At this point in time the rumors are stronger that the 30th is the cut off than they are that the cutoff goes beyond the 30th. I have some conflicting rumors and don’t really know what to think, though.
And for a little history reminder about the way the status box has been updated. When the CCAA first started using the box they would post to the website once they had the matches made, often before they mailed them but sometimes just as they were mailing them. Some agencies complained to the CCAA that they got too many phone calls from clients wanting to know where their referral was when they did this, so the CCAA stopped updating the site until the day referrals began arriving at agencies. We had hopes that they would update the site before they left for the holiday, but they did not.
And one more thing. Several families are having to update their information with the CCAA due to changes that have happened since their original dossier went over (moving to another state, adding another child to the family, major changes in income, etc). Agencies are supposed to have this updated information to the CCAA before the files are matched. I have multiple families with multiple agencies letting me know that their agency has let them know when they need to have this information to them, and they are basing this on the fact that the CCAA is working on January matches. A few of these cases are word of mouth (i.e. someone in my travel group), so they are not all first person. But there are enough cases to give further credibility to the idea that the CCAA has matched farther than they have mailed.
This also helps explain the new silence, since the matchers can no longer leak the cut off date, only the higher ups at the CCAA who are deciding how far out to mail what is already matched now have this knowledge.
I hope that tomorrow we have a better idea of the cut off date. I hate it when we don’t know the cut off date until referrals arrive. Especially when it is a disappointing month. It is so much easier to be happy for the families that got referrals when people have a few days to deal with the disappointment of the small batch ahead of time. (And no, I’m not saying I know for sure it’s going to be a disappointing month, just that I have fears that it is.)
September 30th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
RQ, Thank you for the information you provide to us. As so many people have said so often, this would be so much harder without having a clue what it is going on.
If the new norm is that they are going to not mail all that have been matched, please keep us informed as to who might be being matched (like in this case, possibly January).
Also, do you think that the reason they are not mailing all that are matched due to a quota? If so, do you think in December we will see more matches again (since the quota will start over)?
Thanks
September 30th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
Thanks RQ…I just keep thinking its so sad for everyone waiting NOT to know the cut-off and for those babies that are matched, but cannot get to their families sooner. My instincts tell me that you are correct about the matching process though..
September 30th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
Wow, this is really interesting info RQ…thanks.
Wouldn’t it be easier if china would just admit to matching so far in advance? Personally, if I knew I was being matched but just had to wait a year, I would feel much better. We could make plans as far as work and re-arranging the house for the baby, etc. People who adopt from Guatemala have to wait for a long time to travel after they are matched. But at least they know they have a child.
It will be interesting to see how this all pans out in the next couple of months. I feel sometimes like I’m in the middle of a movie.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
Thanks for consolidating all the info that’s out there RQ. I just wish it was a bit more definite. Oh well. Tomorrow we’ll know more (I hope!)
September 30th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
Wow.
Hope tomorrow tells a happy tale.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
I hope this uncertainty about cut off date is ovcer tomorrow!
September 30th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
Nov. 26/27, 2005 was a weekend, so if they only get through Nov. 30, that will really be only three days of matches. How dismal! At this pathetic rate and with a Feb. 2006 (don’t forget the year - argh!) LID, we can hibernate long past the beginning of next spring, I’m afraid…
September 30th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
blech.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Since only those with 11/30 and earlier are getting calls from their agencies, I think we can see the handwriting on the wall. Here’s still hoping for a miracle!
September 30th, 2007 at 5:41 pm
I’m with you, 3xWait. If they are matching so far ahead, then how long will these families have to wait? The prospect of this is so depressing. :-
September 30th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
According to the RQ poll, Dec 1st has 1 family, O for the 2nd and 3rd, and 3 families for the 4th. So maybe we’re not hearing rumors of early Dec LID referrals because there are so few, with the 5th being the next large date? I know I’m grasping!
September 30th, 2007 at 6:07 pm
If there is a “ceiling” and they are only allowed to send out so many referrals at a time, maybe because the 5th is such a large day they cut off before that day so they can ultimately send that day out as a whole in the next batch…? I hope that makes sense…
September 30th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
RQ ~
*Way* back when, when the CCAA was referring whole months at a time were they referring calender months (like all of December) or was it 28 days at a time (Dec 10 through Jan 8)?
The reason I am asking is I am wondering if the CCAA is getting ready to do two weeks of LID at a time, maybe they are going to start with Dec 1st? Looking for any glimmer of hope……probably a stretch.
However, we have every reason to believe that in the next few months the CCAA is going to begin 15 day batches. As I read on the forum recently, the CCAA predicted quite a while ago that the wait would be exactly where it is today. Gee, how could they know that so far ahead if they are not manipulating the numbers to make it happen? I digress…..
Those of us farther out need to try to keep in mind that the CCAA said there would be 15 day batches in the near future.
For the early December families, I am hoping, hoping that you are in, if not I am so very sorry.
LID 12/12/06
September 30th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
It’s all so sad and pathetic. It is looking more like Dec is not included but I am still holding on by a thread. I’ve lost my sense of humor but will look for it once we get a handle on what is happening this referral batch. Thanks RQ for keeping us informed, I would rather have the most current news/rumors than not. LID 12/5/05
September 30th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
leigh, maybe you are grasping, but what you say does actually make a lot of logical sense. We wouldn’t be hearing from folks getting notified with LID’s for those days…
Maybe this was already stated, but since it is looking like the CCAA is matching further ahead of what is being sent, do we think it is to manipulate states for the 2007 adoption year? In other workds, once December 1st hits, will they be sending them since it will be a new adoption year with a different ceiling? Or is this just another way of saying that things will speed up when…….happens, which have all proved to be wrong so far.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
I have to agree..Does the fiscal year start November 1rst? If this is the case, if I wanted the wait to be at the two year mark, then I would be referring very few files in October…this would mean by the time November 1rst comes along most people are waiting 23 months, and by November 30th (is this the fiscal year end?); most people would have waited 24 months..exactly what was predicted!!! After this, if they are interested in keep the wait between 2 -3 years; then 15 day referral batches would increase the wait from 2 years in November 2007 to three years in November 2008…just a thought….a slow down at the Olympics might stretch things somewhat..but perhaps this would more or less what will happen..hard to say…
September 30th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
I have to say this– I just can’t stop myself. . .
If the CCAA is/has actually matched further than the date they actually issue the referrals . . .
if they are being told to hold referrals even though the babies have been matched for all agencies . . .,
How can China still claim that in thier program they have the child’s best interest in mind?
All the changes/new rules etc.?
I don’t understand how holding referrals for babies that don’t have families– keeping them from being from their new forever families is in the best interest of the babies.
I don’t get it.
I find all of this very disheartening.
I’m just glad that my LID is within a month of LIDs.
I really fear for folks with later a LID. The more information we hear about the China adoption program, the more it sounds like it is becoming much less stable.
Perhaps I am wrong– I hope that I am.
LID 12/20/05
September 30th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
you guys all have some interesting theories. I don’t know what to think anymore. Thanks for the update RQ. I wonder if we’ll ever know the reasons CCAA does what it does. I’m thinking good thoughts for early December families. I hope the waiting for you guys, and the end of November gang, is over soon.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
This is the second time in two days that my anti-spam word is “baby” — surely that is a good sign!! (But then, my LID is 11-30, so we’re not talking a big batch, or anything… but it gives me hope that CCAA DID get them in the mail this week-end… I HOPE!
That is very distressing to think that they might match several months ahead and then hold onto them… they definitely does not seem in the best interests of the babies… I do not understand…
September 30th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
RQ,
Do you think this scenario is possible? Just because January 06 is having to update their files in preparations to be matched, doesn’t necessarily mean that December 05 has been matched. Couldn’t December 05 be sitting in the matching room all updates confirmed ready and waiting to be matched?
Lately, the review room is zipping along and so may be the update room just prior to the files entering the matching room. Of course, the CCAA probably doesn’t have actual rooms for these purposes, but I am using the term for ease of understanding.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
RQ-
Forgive me if you’ve answered this recently, but when does the Chinese ‘fiscal’ year officially start? Is it November or December? Are we dealing with the year end quota here?
September 30th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
shanggirls, where are you hearing that the review room is zipping along? according to published info from my agency, the review room has been a slow holdup recently.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
I guess I should have said relatively zipping along……
March 06 out of review on February 2nd……
a long time until
April 06 out of review on June 21st………
then relatively fast for the next few months……
May 06 out of review July 5th
June 06 out of review on July 26th,
July 06 was out of review on September 9th,
August 06 was out of review on September 26th.
Seeing as how long it took for February and March 06 to get out of the review room it seems to be going faster. I took it as possibly that some of the review room folks may have been used to logg in all those dossiers that were coming in before the May 1st 07 deadline for changes. Of course that is MY speculation. It seems a reasonable assumption……but an assumption just the same.
I hope I got all the dates right, I was skipping between different RQ Blog pages.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
As usual…job well done RQ. And to think tht they could be matching families with January 2006 LID give me goose bumps. Yes yes yes….it’s a friend of a friend….but that’s the best news we have heard of since….well….a really long long time. Thank you and keep up the good work. We all appreciate you.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:33 pm
Thanks for the update RQ-
Question- how are the families updating CCAA about changes etc? Are the agencies sending the homestudy updates over that everyone has done to renew the 171H?
September 30th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
waiting4maleah, when CCAA used to send a whole month at a time, it was calendar month.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
You can get an idea of how referrals went by looking at the top of this chart
http://chinaadopttalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/090307RefHistory.gif
It shows 9/16 then 10/19 then 11/19 then 12/20 then 1/27. Basically they referred about a month’s worth of referrals but it jumped around some, too.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:32 pm
Waiting in Texas, no. HS updates are only for the US Consulate appointment. You’ll be taking a copy of your update with you to China.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:39 pm
skye06 - for a while the word seemed to be that the CCAA wasn’t interested in most updates. But now it appears that agencies are being instructed to send updates for certain circumstances, and the CCAA wants them there before the files go to be matched.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:46 pm
I am thinking of the babies that have been matched and then have to wait extra months to have a family! That is not in the best interest of the babies, RQ do you think it means they are literally “matching” that far ahead like people with January LID’s already may have their babies matched? Or could it be that the matching room just has those parents files preparing them for match? I know I am grasping at straws, it just seems so sad.
Michele
October 1st, 2007 at 12:09 am
Thanks, RQ. Good to know about this. Any ideas about the types of circumstances they’d want to know about? I’m assuming for any big, important changes.
October 1st, 2007 at 4:09 am
I am just wondering if they are preparing to send out bigger batches before the Olympics, when the next fiscal year starts.
Grasping at straws here, but it would make sense. It seems things will be down for a while during the Olympics.
October 1st, 2007 at 5:20 am
Flowerpower, I’m SO very much hoping for that too, but haven’t dared to put it in print. I’m so extremely tired of all these disappointments, every month.
October 1st, 2007 at 7:18 am
RUMOR QUEEN:
This is a late comment/question, so I hope you get this…
Anyway, I was just reading an e-mail from my agency this morning and they said that China received an unusually large number of dossiers in the end of Dec. 05 and beginning of Jan. 06………??????????????????????????
According to the polls here, I thought I understood that the numbers for that time period were LOW…………………..Am I confused? Also, do you think my agency is just talking about only their clients?
I’m concerned about this one as we have a Jan. 13, 2006 LID and I’ve been gathering from this site that once they referred all of Nov.05 that they’d pick up speed……another words, process more LIDs for the next few batches since “Dec.05, and Jan.06″ were low in numbers……………???????????????
I hope I’m clear about what I’m asking b/c I WOULD LOVE SOME ANSWERS from you or anybody out there who could shed some light on this one.
Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 1st, 2007 at 7:22 am
my post isn’t going through
October 1st, 2007 at 10:24 am
Please please please please — Don’t put too much stock in what agencies and the CCAA are saying. Much of the time agencies are only mouthing the words they think the CCAA would approve of.
October 1st, 2007 at 11:27 am
“I have multiple families with multiple agencies letting me know that their agency has let them know when they need to have this information to them, and they are basing this on the fact that the CCAA is working on January matches.”
RQ-Do you think they would match babies that are not paper ready or do you think they match them after they are paper ready? If so, we will start seeing babies that are much older, right? Especially if they have already matched January.