December 2005 Numbers
Lots of people are asking about December 2005 numbers.
Here is a link to a pdf of testimony to the Senate, saying that 2,000 dossiers were received in the month of October. If you don’t want to download the pdf you can view a screenshot of the relevant part here. The yellow highlighting is my emphasis.
I assumed that since they were taking so long to log files in back then that most of those 2,000 dossiers received in October would have November LID’s. So, I’m assuming that the November LID month is probably accurate to call somewhere close to 2,000.
Looking at the polls, December is probably around 60% the size of November.
If we figure 2000 dossiers in November 2005, and if December is about 60% of November, then that would be around 1,200.
It’s just a guesstimate, but probably as close as anyone can get at this point.
October 15th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Hi RQ,
Does the number of dossiers appear to decrease again in January 2006 from December 2005?
Thanks so much, T
October 15th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
So if they keep up the same pace, then December should only take about 3 months to get through!!
October 15th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
So, with those numbers, AND if the CCAA keeps at roughly the same rate of referrals, do you think, RQ, that it might take 3-4 months for the CCAA to get through all of the December 2005 referrals? At this point, I see no reason to believe that the CCAA will move through referrals any faster then they have been the past year. Dismal outlook, to say the least.
October 15th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
RQ, how to I communicate with you directly?
October 15th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
Quoting from this post:
I believe that December is about 60% the size of November. I also believe that the CCAA should be able to get through December in three months (with maybe a few December LIDs included in a fourth month that would be mostly made up of January LIDs). This assumes that they continue to do about the same number of NSN referrals per calendar month as they have been doing. If they increase that number then it could be less than three months, if they reduce that number even more, then, well, I don’t want to go there.
October 15th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
So what is the rumor?
October 15th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
DaisyandCamilo
http://chinaadopttalk.com/contact-info/
October 15th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Adomom12 - There is no rumor, it’s just useful information.
October 15th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
This post is marked as analysis, not rumor. A lot of people were asking about the numbers for December 2005 and I answered as best I can.
October 15th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
OH, sorry, my bad. I am just so desperate!!! Can you tell!!!
Adomom
LID 12/5/05
October 15th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Thanks RQ!
I know that I am feeling particularly jumpy these days. Nervous, cranky, excited. Dare I say this might be true for the rest of my December friends.
Boy do I have a headache right now.
These next months are going to be a killer.
Thanks for being patient with us December folks and posting this information.
Best Regards!
LID 12/20/05
October 15th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
RQ Thanks for the infor I am jan 12/06 and two years older since I began(almost) I have a question I hope you can answer. My agency sends along a chart with places everyone listing dtc and lid and current status at ccaa. Well here I am going along marking them off then all of a sudden there were lid dates not listed. I’m a little slow and realized they were only listing their lid dates. How where and when can I get a list of all the dates, should I be looking somewhere on this site! On a positive note I believe I will have my referral on januaury of 07 giving me the full 24 month wait. I hate to fly when the snow is but it is what it is when it is!!! Way to ready
October 15th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
I found a chart with april highlighted in blue for placed. Does this mean that the rumor was true?
October 15th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Is there still a January LID room and if so how do I apply to get in?
October 15th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
mtonkinson - you lost me. completely.
meighansmomma - there is a thread sticked to the top of the General Discussion room, you have to ask to be put into your LID room in that thread.
October 15th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
RQ - I love knowing the approximate numbers for the coming months - is there a chart somewhere that lists the numbers for each 2006 month??
Thanks for all your info!
LID Aug 06
October 15th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
RQ - another question!
Approx. how many babies were/are being referred out each month??
I had seen talk of it being a new fiscal year for the CCAA - is this true? When should we expect to see numbers being published as to the amount of children reffered out for last year??
October 15th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
dreaming of china - no, such a chart does not exist. You can look at the poll numbers and get a rough idea of how months compare to each other, just remember that for the long term monthly poll you should only compare months that are close to each other. People are more likely to be here in large numbers just after DTC and then a few months before referral, so you can’t really compare months that are six months apart. But, it’s the best we’ve got.
As for your second question - there is no easy answer to that one. You can look at the most recent projections post to get an idea in poll numbers.
October 15th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
I guess it should be pretty interesting to see how they refer for the month of December. I am hoping they can do it in three months or less but I am not holding my breath or getting my hopes up though.
Wendy
LID 12/27/05
October 15th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
mtonkinson, what on earth are you trying to say? Also, if your LID is Jan 06 please don’t get your hopes up for a January 08 referral. Please continue to read RQ’s archives and this post before lamenting traveling in the winter. I know thinking positively offers some people hope, but I personally think that being realistic is much less emotionally taxing.
Anyway, thanks RQ for this analysis. December in 3 months would be great!
October 15th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
mtonkinsin - In answer to your first question, assume that ALL days are LIDs. People are logged in every weekday unless it’s a holiday. And according to RQ polls, some people swear they are logged in on weekends too. So I just assume that every single day of the year is a possible LID, even if there are a few scattered here and there that are not.
I don’t understand your other question, sorry.
October 15th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
LouiseMe… We are LID January 27, 06 and in keeping with our perpetual Ground Hog Day reality, we assume a 6-8 month Wait until Referral. It’s slow progress but we know we’re inching our way there…
October 15th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
With an LID of January 27, 06 and in keeping with our perpetual Ground Hog Day state of existence, we are assuming a 6-8 month Wait for Referral. Slow as it may be we still view it as progress…
October 15th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Bottom line in this is it took roughy 5 months to place 2000 children or 4500 children a year.
With a back log of 15-20K, plus falling abandonement numbers and an internal switch from IA to domestic adoption, the math is depressing.
October 15th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
By Jan 2008 the CCAA will be 2 years behind.
If they returned to doing full months at that time, the wait would remain at 2 years.
If they did 1/2 months the wait would be 4 years.
The first referral for this year started SEP 9, 2005. So they have only done 3 months this year.
If they continue at the same rate, they would take 4 years to process 2006 and another 4 years to process 2007.
That would make the people who are logging in now wait 8 years.
Side Note: Are there really people who are JUST entering the process?
That would be an interesting poll, ask your agencies if they have new customers.
NOW NO ONE wants to wait that long. So what is really going on?
I think that the CCAA wants to keep their healthy baby girls in China because of the gender enbalance.
I began to suspect it when they added all the new rules last year that pretty
much eliminated 1/2 people who were previously able to adopt, including us.
Now the remaining 1/2 who are qualified will look to other programs for a baby or accept a SN child.
I think the message is clear but we are not wanting to believe it.
The days of adopting healthy baby girls from China is over.
If you are in process, be prepared for the long wait. If you are NOT yet in process, pick another country.
I am sad when I think of all the babies who will grow up in the orphanage because of this.
A girl learns how to be a mom and wife from her mother. Living in an orphanage will not
prepare these girls for the future like life in a family would.
I am sad too for all of the couples who would make good parents for these babies.
October 15th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
China Dad 1-
Based on the US State Department website
The US placed about 7000 adoptions in 2005. Now if they are processing 2000 in six months and that is for multiple countries than you are right about the depressing math. I am a LID 9/06 and my math tells me another 3 years.
I wonder when the State Department will update their website with the 2006 numbers. If the US number drops to 4000 or below we will know there is a quota for IA.
October 15th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Hellofrompgh, you write: “If they continue at the same rate, they would take 4 years to process 2006 and another 4 years to process 2007.”
You are forgetting the marked drop of dossiers that were sent to China after May 1st 2007. I doubt that it will take 4 years to process 2007, since there are far less dossiers the 8 last months of 2007. However there ARE very many dossiers in the beginning of 2007, especially in April 07 (or so I understand).
October 15th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
this is my first time posting…well sorta. I posted a couple times a few months ago in the forum, but now I am now back on board…considering we have a 12/20/05 lid, i better be!!! you guys are the best…i wouldn’t have made it this far without you…even though I have just been a reader. Numbers are looking good for December. Lets hope they go wtih numbers and not days.
October 15th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
Hellofrompgh: I totally agree with you about them keeping the girls for balance control and it is so heartbreaking.
October 15th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
I know that gender imbalance is often quoted as a reason for the reduction in adoptions. But I’m not convinced. Fewer than 10,000 girls are adopted internationally each year in a country with over a billion people that keeps growing by several million a year. So if there are nearly 10 million births in China this year, but only 7,000 of those babies leave the country to be adopted, does that really cause a huge problem?
October 15th, 2007 at 8:51 pm
Hi -
mtonkinson - the chart you are referring to (on the CCAA Updates and Referrals page) shows the April information highlighted in blue because that particular information was gleaned from the agency’s private pay-to-view information, from the CCAA website.
I believe I’m repeating this correctly: It is now believed that the agencies are not having to pay to view this information.
With an LID of 2/17/06, I’m very anxious to see how long it takes to get through December ‘05. We are still a long way away from referral, but I’d love to dream it would come in 2008 (thought at the beginning of the year it would be this year, though!).
October 15th, 2007 at 9:27 pm
With respect to the gender imbalance issue. As amycate noted, when you do the math, the impact of IA on the ratio of men to women is essentially insignificant.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
I don’t think it is as much as a gender inbalance but a lack of future women who would want to marry farmers and live in the rural areas. Women are now making some decisions for themselves. Our Guide along with several other young girls we met in China moved to the city for better opportunities. Their parents were opposed to their move and are frightened of their independence. Our Guide was very young, and she was working and studying. Her goal is to get into a career. She told me that she would never marry a farmer or live in the rural parts of China and only wanted to marry a ‘well off Chinese’. She emailed me a week ago and told me she was getting married to a really nice guy. However, there are families in rural areas that are adopting girls as future wives for their relatives. This information was written in a book, I don’t remember who by though. Rural life, as it has in many Western countries will probably be a thing of the past with the way China is catching up with technology.
October 15th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
On the lighter side…. it seems that we are flying through October, at least it seems that way to me. When we hit November, we’ll slide right into the Holidays, Thanksgiving (U.S.), Christmas, and before you know it, bam…… it will be 1/1/08………. hopefully, fingers crossed, that things will speed up, and if not, we’ll all be preoccupied with the Holidays, in that sad, only a waiting parent kinda preoccupation could present…… geeeeeze, I can’t believe I just depressed myself, yet again…… there I go AGAIN…..well, my heart is in the right place…… going to bed :) Oh, and just realized that tomorrow is 19 mos. DTC……… oy
October 15th, 2007 at 10:24 pm
I just sent along an email to everyone……. started out quite upbeat……. progressed downward, became totally depressing……. and somehow it didn’t post, which is a good thing I suppose……., so I guess I’ve come full circle and am upbeat yet again………
This whole thing has got my head spinning. In the meantime, we’re expanding our family with an interim adoption of a puppy……… second one in 5 months. Well, this one will take longer, as we are researching breeders, and then planned litters, so the pups aren’t even conceived yet. We fell in love with Briards, a French Sheepdog, so once we narrow things down, and select a breeder, and the female is exptecting, well, maybe then I’ll feel somewhat pregnant….. cause I don’t now…. I kinda did in the beginning, ya know what I mean, but tomorrow is 19 months dtc…… and I’m so preoccupying myself with everything other than BABIES……. it’s really so sad, this should be such a happy time, and I get so pissed. Better stop now……. verring off towards that depressing slope…..
Nite all. Anti-spam word - baby, can we change that to puppy?
October 15th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
oooops……. guess it did post……. okay, so now I’m laughing, sorry :)
October 15th, 2007 at 10:55 pm
test
October 15th, 2007 at 10:56 pm
Thanks for answering my questions I now understand how many lid dates. I was under the inpression they only issued lid for every so many days. For instance my agency has four dates for dec. listed, I now know that those are the only lid my agency has people for. And as far as shooting for januaury I’ m doing it. I am a dreamer who shall remain, the only thing that can happen is I will be as prepared as I can be. As my boss always says, there are always people waiting to pee in your cheerios.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:07 pm
gotchaback-
personally, this month is CRAWLING!!! So. Very. Very. Slow. And we won’t get referral this month, and probably not the next month either. Yesterday was 22 months LID anniversary, and I can’t tell you how much I dread the 23 month anniversary, and I’m just hoping that I have referral by the (gah!) 24 month anniversary!
October 15th, 2007 at 11:11 pm
2nd test
October 15th, 2007 at 11:16 pm
Amy from Maine
I am not convinced of a quote per sey. As painful as it is , we all want to add to our families but if fewer childern are avilable that too is good. I believe the new numbers are not posted untill Dec or Jan
TOP COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
1 6,493 - CHINA (Mainland) 2006 ending sept 2006
1 7,906 - CHINA (Mainland) 2005 ending sept 2005
http://travel.state.gov/family/adoption/stats/stats_451.html
Assuming a drop of 1400 children from 2006 verses 2005 and similar drop ( data not yet published) for 2007 that would equal 5000 children for the last year. Multiply out by 1.2 for non us adoptions and you are looking at 6000 children world wide or roughly 500+ children a month which seems about 25% high based on RQ’s extensive reviews.
October 16th, 2007 at 4:33 am
China dad, I assume what you are saying is that the drop in number of children can be explained by less children available, rather than a quote? This is exactly what I believe too.
October 16th, 2007 at 5:43 am
I’m probably wrong about this but I still think the Beijing Olympics is hugely affecting everything that is associated with people from all over the world, most importantly international media, travelling to and staying in China next year. Just my personal opinion, but I do believe that the Chinese government has a very definite “face” that it is determined to show the world. I do not believe that includes the fact that it’s economic and social policies have resulted in x amount of children not only being abandoned but not able to be raised by Chinese parents in China. I would like to stress that this is my take on the Chinese government’s view. I do not believe Chinese people are against foreign adoption. They are well aware of the causes of abandonment and the fact that so many Chinese babies and children have been saved by foreign adpotion. Friends of mine in China have expresesed this to me on several occasions and hope that many more children in orphanages will have the chance to thrive as human beings if not in China ,somewhere else in the world.
cab2
October 16th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Hi Rumor Queen !
Again, thanks for your help and accuracy.
Do you think you could organise an additional poll on “what month are you logged in”? Should be great to be able to update the data (especially for April 2007). ion fact, 267 people answered your last poll on this subject only. That would mean that April 2007 would be about 60% of November 2005, which does not match AT ALL with the recent information you shared (4000 dossiers would be logged in April 2007).
Many many thanks in advance.
Kindest regards
Marianne, French happy mum to Ninon (3.5 years ) LID 17.4.07 BB2
October 16th, 2007 at 9:21 am
These next few batches of referrals are going to be interesting, I think.
I wonder if the days of 2-4 days are over for awhile….
I can’t even remember the last time I saw 10, 12 or 15….I think I would pass out!
Hoping December is smooth sailing….ready to see 2006!
October 16th, 2007 at 9:30 am
French Marianne - because of the way our polls are done, you simply cannot compare months that are that far away from each other.
People are most likely to be here in large numbers just after DTC and then much larger numbers a few months before referrals. This skews the numbers.
It is fine to compare months that are close to each other, but once they get a few months away you should not compare them.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
If nothing else the CCAA has figured out a way to insure job security for themselves.