Numbers
I have heard from clients of more than a half dozen agencies that the CCAA received over 4,000 dossiers during the month of April 2007. Enough agencies have this number that I think it is probably correct.
Not surprisingly, the reports are that there were barely any received during May.
However, I’m told the number is creeping back up and they are now receiving around 400 new dossiers per month. I do not know if that is NSN only, or a combination of NSN and SN. I’m guessing it is a combination.
I do not have any information about the month of March 2007, but I will assume it is also a large month.
But, back to that 4,000 number for April. If the rates of referrals are similar when they refer them as they are now, even with attrition I think it could easily take them about a year to just do the month of April 2007. Nothing says the rates will be the same – maybe they will be doing more and maybe they will be doing less. But, 4,000 in one month is astronomical.
On another note, I plan to do a More Babies! post tomorrow (Tuesday) for anyone who wants to share a referral that isn’t part of China’s NSN referral batches. This includes those of you in the China SN program as well as anyone with a referral from another country (including domestic adoptions as well). Once I open the post up you’ll be able to leave a comment on that post, or if you want to PM it to me ahead of time then I can have it on the post from the beginning. Please send me the address to the blog post with the information along with the name of the blog. Please don’t give it to me in the comments to this post, either PM it to me or hold off and give it to me Tuesday once the post is published.
October 15th, 2007 at 8:51 am
Well, that is sure going to be a mess to sort out. In other words, the new rules are doing nothing to filter the numbers down?
October 15th, 2007 at 9:14 am
I wanted to share the good news this morning that our November (LID11/30) group that was skipped when referrals went out a couple weeks ago, has now finally received our referrals.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:18 am
Congratulations to Heather and the rest of your group!! What a relief.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:18 am
wickedwitcheast,
4000 dossiers in April 2007 was to beat the new rules.
None or almost none in May is a significant reduction. Now creeping back to 400 per month. I think 400 per month is still a lot smaller tahn it was. It was rumored that the CCAA had about 30,000 dossiers about 6 months ago. If you average that out to a 2 year wait then that is about 1,250 dossiers per month received assuming all months are the same. They are now only getting about one-third the number they were before.
AW
October 15th, 2007 at 9:24 am
Congratulations, Heather! It is nice to read good news!
The 4,000 in April of 2007 would be families trying to get in before the new rules take effect, but oh my!
Nancy
October 15th, 2007 at 9:35 am
Wonderful news Heather! Congratulations! I have been thinking about you and your travel group alot. Can’t wait to hear more.
Mendy
October 15th, 2007 at 9:36 am
How many do we think there were for the month of Nov 2005? Just to compare… if RQ thinks it would take a year just to get through April 07 and it took 6 months to get through Nov 05, is it safe to say there were 2000 or so dossiers in Nov 05? That makes sense, right?
October 15th, 2007 at 9:43 am
With an April 2007 LID, this is not good to hear. Can’t say I’m all that surprised though.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:48 am
If it took 6 months to get through Nov 05 and there were an estimated 2000 familes logged in, I wonder if it will take a year to get through the estimateed 4000 families for April…? No way…That is just cuckoo!
October 15th, 2007 at 9:55 am
So lets see…. if we say that from Dec 05 to Feb 07 there were about 1200 LID’s per month*, that gets us to 18,000 LID’s Add in 2500 for March 07 and 4000 for April 07 and we are at 24,500. Add in an average of 250 per month for May through September and we get a total of 26,000. Make a stab at attrition and bring it down to an even 20,000.
If we use 400 NSN adoptions per month referred that gives a wait of 50 months, just over 4 years. After that the wait would stabilize or possibly start to drop slowly.
The big question to me is ,if the CCAA does the exact same math, would they end up with any concerns? My personal feeling is that no they wouldn’t.
*If one takes RQ’s best guess at December of 1200 LID’s and then looks at her polling along with a stab at the impact of the fact that closer LID’s participate in polls more than later LID’s, then the average of 1200 per month feels about right.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:58 am
Yeah for the skipped referrals!!!!
October 15th, 2007 at 10:06 am
It’ll be really interesting, and telling, how these 4000 ! dossiers do in review. Even review will take a long time, I’d guess.
Congrats to those who were skipped!!
October 15th, 2007 at 10:09 am
What a fine fix China has gotten themselves into!!!!!!!
October 15th, 2007 at 10:22 am
Not that much of a fix from China’s perspective. They have plenty of waiting parents. Better than not enough.
AW
October 15th, 2007 at 10:29 am
Ugh….we are April 13,07 and we weren’t even trying to beat the new rules, just had the unfortunate conicidence of waiting to be old enough to apply and then having our paperwork drop in that time frame….
I do wonder though with numbers like that if the reviewers are going to be extra meticulous and slow given it’s the last month before the cut-off…..
Heather thanks for sharing your good news!!!! I’m SO glad that the CCAA fixed their error so quickly! (Although for you family I know it must have felt like a year!!!) Many heartfelt congrats!!!
October 15th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Ugh is right, we’re in the same boat as Dreaming of Cassie – we started our dossier in Aug of 2006 and qualify under the new rules, but had a couple of hang-ups that delayed our submission til April of 07. Not sure what this means for our prospects – unless we switch to SN (not sure if we can even do that with our agency) it seems to me that the potential wait may just be too long. :-(
October 15th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Heather,
I’m so happy for you & those in your travel group. Happy travels.
4,000 dossiers in 1 month. WOW…
Lisa
LID: 12.20.06
October 15th, 2007 at 11:35 am
Congratulations Heather! When do we get to see pictures? Could they be included with the More Babies?!?
October 15th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Heather, I’ve been following your comments lately and I’m so glad it all worked out well! You must be extatic. Congratulations!!!!
About “Numbers” it seems to be getting worse and worse… I put in a call to our agency last week, just for a chat, but have not heard from them yet. That’s not good!
We are devastated and feel we need to make a decision (5 years is not acceptable, is it?), but don’t know what to do. LID April 2007
October 15th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
I have made a suggestion in the April 07 LID room that someone may want to create a poll in there to get an idea of how the days of the month are spread out – whether most are logged in at the end of the month or if the entire month is pretty spread out.
October 15th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Although 5 yrs is a nightmarish amount of time, when you compare it to 8-10 mos, it is still a period of time that many people will feel OK with. I’m sure we all know or have heard of someone who waited YEARS to adopt. This would be particularly true if a family entered the process understanding the timeline. Problem is, it appears that most who are already in line had no idea.
I’m sure China will be fine with it. I don’t think they’ll see it as a problem.
October 15th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
If April 2007 takes a year to get through, I think I will die of heartache….
On a lighter note, congrats to the skipped 11/30 families who received their referrals!
October 15th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
What a fearful news for the 2007 lids !
Specialy French ones who can’t wait for 2 country at the same time …
October 15th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
I started a poll quite a while ago in the April Room 48 replys all spread though out the month,no days were were really any bigger than the others.Now maybe a few more will vote in a newer poll since the one I started (Well I suggested it Kathyp did the real work and it was much apprieciated by the way )
October 15th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
I agree that there are quite a few people who didn’t know about the wait. People not involved in any yahoo groups or other internet research who just trust their agency information. I know of a woman with a Late 06 LID who said she would be home with her baby by March 2007 (based on her agency she claimed). I told her that was untrue because I had a Nov 05 LID and wouldn’t see my baby until April at BEST, but more likely the summer of 2007 and she was way behind me in line.
She told me that I needed to get a better agency like hers. So I said, “Okay then, nice to meet ya, talk to you later. That’s not how China works.” I tried to give information about this site, but I think that some people just don’t want it.
Even though we are home now and loving it, I still come to this site to stay up to date in case we decide to apply again. Information can be sad and overwhelming, but better to have it, than to go into things blindly.
October 15th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
Just for your info….our dossier was recieved by China on Mar. 6, 2007, but we were not logged in until April 20, 2007. I don’t know why it took so long to be logged in neither does our agency.
Sybil aka Jazzy Jane
October 15th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
This is absolutely heartbreaking to hear considering we have a May 2007 LID. We submitted our completed dossier to our agency at the beginning of March, but they held it unitl the beginning of May to form a travel group. We could have had a late March LID if they had sent it when we completed it. I was already in dispair knowing that we would wait a lot longer since they held our dossier, but this news makes it even worse…especially since we did everything we could to beat the rush before the new rules went into place. We just happened to be completing our dossier during this timeframe and were not impacted by the new rules….ugg!
October 15th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
Oh sweetpea I do not know what to say!
More than that you have an incompetent agency!!! There was no surprise to anyone with any little fragment of knowledge of China adoptions that there would be a huge rush before May 1st. Your agency seem unprofessional!
(In our case we had an incompetent homestudy responsible. She delayed our DTC with a month (went on “surprise” vacation when she should have held the final board meeting – and next chance was a month later…).
I am still so mad at her!!!
(No, I know it doesn’t help but what can we do? Get voodoo dolls?!? ;-)
October 15th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Heather~
Congratulations – your heart must be relieved!!!!
Jo-Anne
October 15th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
Heather,
Many congratulations to you and your fellow group members! Do add your referral info tomorrow…you’ve waited extra long to share this news, and we are all celebrating with you!!
October 15th, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Oh my… I missed a LID group at my agency in mid february very narrowly. Now I’m an early march and I guess I must be happy I’m not late april. In the end that may make a difference of about a year and a half. Or even more. Wow.
October 15th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
this is my first time posting…well sorta. I posted a couple times a few months ago in the forum, but now I am now back on board…considering we have a 12/20/05 lid, i better be!!! you guys are the best…i wouldn’t have made it this far without you…even though I have just been a reader. Numbers are looking good for December. Lets hope they go wtih numbers and not days.
October 15th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Is that estimate of 4,000 just from the US or from the US, Canada and Europe? I have an April 20 LID and I don’t know what to say. I keep readjusting my expectations. I went from believing that I was going to have an 18-24 month wait (hard but doable) to thinking that I will be 50 by the time I get my baby (I am 44 now).
October 15th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
RQ, how can I get into the April 2007 room?
October 15th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Heather, Great news, I am so happy for you!! With a LID of 4/07 can someone please tell me how to get in the April 07 room? I just don’t seem to be able to get there. Thanks!!!!
October 15th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
To join your LID room you need to make the request in this thread:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/forum/index.php?topic=4362.0
October 15th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
I also had trouble figuring out how to post my reply (and with it my room request) in the forum area….I had already set up my name with the general blog and was able to post there, but when I finally just tried to re-sign up (using the same name) in the forum area, it then allowed me to post…. Hope this helps….
October 17th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
Ugh.
With a LID of May 14, 2007, I can’t believe I have to possibly wait a whole extra year to the already LONG wait.
How utterly depressing.