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European RumorA European site says the cut off will be the 12th, possibly the 13th. There is no information about where this information comes from. They say they are “confirming this”, they aren’t treating it as a rumor but as fact. I give it an R1 or an R2 at this point. I hope they are right, but I wouldn’t take it to the bank just yet. 
Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege. 77 Responses to “European Rumor”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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October 25th, 2007 at 7:30 am
I know the numbers aren’t as huge in December (according to the polls) but who cares? wouldn’t a 12-13 day batch lift everyone’s spirits!
Come on CCAA, bring on two weeks’ worth of referrals!
October 25th, 2007 at 7:33 am
If they are “confirming” then why are they saying it could be either 12 or 13? If they knew for sure, wouldn’t there just be one date to report?
October 25th, 2007 at 7:47 am
That would be incredible!!! and about time they did something other than a few days.
Let’s hope December only takes 3 months to get through.
October 25th, 2007 at 7:47 am
Wow this would be just absolutely wonderful to see the CCAA get this far into a month for a change. I know the numbers against days don’t correlate, but its all to do with going forward by 10-15’s rather than 2 days at a time.
Roll on referrals.
October 25th, 2007 at 7:51 am
I hope, I hope, I hope!!! My LID isn’t until March 2007, but I know I , along with everyone else, desperately need to see some good news.
October 25th, 2007 at 7:52 am
let’s hope this will be true!!!!!
karen
http://members.chello.nl/r.pepol
October 25th, 2007 at 7:53 am
Well, this page says:
the cut off will be the 12th, NOT possibly the 13th. They says there is a very little, little, little probability that the 13th is in. But they don´t thing so. Anyway: I hope they´re right with the 12th.
October 25th, 2007 at 7:56 am
I read the same thing from the “European Rumor” on their website. I have to say, I was watching them last month and they were telling their families the cut-off date a few days before we got word of it. They were right last month in telling us the cut-off was only to the 30th. They sounded more positive this month, then they did last month. I started packing. You never can be to prepared!
judy
http://www.ramellafamily.blogspot.com
October 25th, 2007 at 7:56 am
Okay, well if this rumor is true, we very well could see ALL of December 05′ referred by the end of December 07′! I am still holding onto hope!
What a great way to start the day!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 8:04 am
Since we are coming off of a particularly dismal batch, it wouldnt surprise me if they gave us a bit of a gift this month. After the 2day batch, which I think was about 6 months ago, I believe the batch following it was larger than ‘normal’
here’s hoping they do it again!
October 25th, 2007 at 8:23 am
I’m thinking positive thoughts, good thoughts, willing this to be true…
C’mon 12/13!!!
—
LID 2/24/2006
October 25th, 2007 at 8:23 am
Anyone know which european agency is stating this. As it sure isn’t the UK.
You can knock me down with a feather if it is true, as we’ll be in.
Not going to get my hopes up, definately not. Just keep telling my self it isn’t going to happen, Then I can Cope.
My spam words are cope and hope!
October 25th, 2007 at 8:26 am
I have been following this “european agency” for the last two months. They were 100% correct last month. They were telling their people the cut-off days before it was confirmed in the states.
October 25th, 2007 at 8:29 am
I am not sure we are allowed to say who it is on this board. If you want to know, e-mail me @ judyr908@yahoo.com
October 25th, 2007 at 8:31 am
I can’t believe I might see my baby’s face next week after almost 23 months!
12/05/05
October 25th, 2007 at 8:31 am
If the CCAA does get to 12/13 then that would be the “good case” according to RQ’s predictions. I can’t remember the last time we saw a good case. This is almost to good to be true!
October 25th, 2007 at 8:32 am
OMG! OMG!
Everybody check your seatbelts and hang-on!
If this really happens– referrals arrive through the 12th, then maybe, just maybe referrals in December will include the 20th?
OMG! OMG!
I am on pins and needles!
LID 12/20/05
Next month will be worse for me I am sure.
October 25th, 2007 at 8:37 am
ramfam - funny, but last month when I said it looked like it might be the 30th they had a post up saying that I was being too pessimistic and I didn’t know what I was talking about and it would surely make it into December. And then a few days later they started saying only three days, and then later said that when they said three days they really meant five.
But now the earlier posts are gone.
Anyone who wants to go, be careful. There are pop unders and some other icky stuff you get from going there.
October 25th, 2007 at 8:47 am
What a nice positive rumor!! I nearly had a heart attack reading it. I can’t imagine a batch of referrals with that many days. (2 months ago DH found the RQ website…)
Keeping my fingers crossed!
Have a good day.
Lisa
LID: 12.20.06
Sorry if this posted 2x but my computer is acting up…
October 25th, 2007 at 8:50 am
Could it? Would it? WANT IT! O my….
Could they? Would they? Or is it, again, a ‘lie’?
C’mon CCAA! Go, go, go, December 2005!!! We want to go in 2006 and fast!! Pretty please: this year (never say never ;-)
Good luck to you, all Dec LID-family’s!
LID may 12, 2006……
October 25th, 2007 at 8:53 am
Rumor Queen:
Thanks for the heads up!
October 25th, 2007 at 8:54 am
Looking at the most recent poll results, wouldn’t a cutoff of the 12th mean that this batch would have significantly more referrals (between 2 and 3 times) than last batch?
October 25th, 2007 at 9:02 am
It’s funny. Last month we didn’t have hardly any rumors at all until right to the end…and this month we are back with the rumors. I’m so glad, although, I don’t know how I’m supposed to get anything done now…LID 12/8/2005!! COME ON DECEMBER!!
October 25th, 2007 at 9:03 am
To the 12th is 154 referrals (from the polls - 82 from the 1st-7th, and 72 from 8-12th). Last month was 68… so yah, looks like a little more than double last month’s… sure would be wonderful!
October 25th, 2007 at 9:15 am
Back in April when they had a tiny batch of 79 RQ families, May was followed by170 RQ families. Averaging those two was 125 families, which is right in line with the trend. If this rumor is correct, it would be 68 families in October and 154 in November averaging 111. In my mind, this rumor would make sense.
October 25th, 2007 at 9:21 am
Here’s to hoping it’s true … but I’m not gonna hold my breath.
October 25th, 2007 at 9:24 am
I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed for all you December LID’ers. All of us waiting need something good to happen.
October 25th, 2007 at 9:25 am
I’ll believe it when I see it…
October 25th, 2007 at 9:26 am
This would be great news. I have to think that the occaisional small RQ batches could be related to big months in other countries, a large number of SN referrals, or a batch of expidited referrals. It is good to see that it tends to average out.
GO DECEMBER! I still think we will need two more monthys (hopefully), but it will feel great to get to ‘06!
October 25th, 2007 at 9:37 am
YAY! Let’s see some progress for a change! Positive thoughts, positive thoughts…
October 25th, 2007 at 9:45 am
OMG….please, please, please let this be true!!! Our LID is 12/07/05 and both MINE and my husband’s birthdays are in November…what an awesome gift that would be!!! Keeping everything crossed!!
Thanks Rumor Queen for passing on the rumor!!
My anti-spam word is “China”.
October 25th, 2007 at 9:58 am
Come on December…YEAH…sounds like a realistic rumor to me…
October 25th, 2007 at 10:07 am
TWID TWID TWID TWID!!
(Two Weeks In December)
I like the idea!
FC
October 25th, 2007 at 10:08 am
If this rumour is true, when will referrals start arriving in the UK, and then what do we do. I have forgotten the whole process since I started this adoption 4 years ago.
And since I wasn’t expecting a referral for another year I haven’t swatted up yet????
October 25th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Keeping my fingers crossed for all you December families! Come on, CCAA, lift our spirits!!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 10:15 am
I love the anticipation before referrals. December LIDers I have everything crossed, will light a candle, pray and keep wonderful thoughts that many LID dates are included in this batch.
October 25th, 2007 at 10:21 am
Please remind me again when are we expecting this batch of referrals.
Thank you,
LID 06/07/07 (I’m counting down:-)
October 25th, 2007 at 10:28 am
If this is true (PLEASE let it be!!) than the hope of finishing 2005 LIDs in 2007 could happen, and then maybe the hope of 15 day batches in 2008 could happen…oh, this is the happiest I’ve felt about the wait in a LONG time! PLEASE let it be true!!!! :)
(ok, that’s strange…I had this strange sense Monday that our little girl had been born. And every time I post, my anti-spam word is Jiangxi. A sign, perhaps???)
October 25th, 2007 at 10:35 am
OK - these thoughts are taking turns in my cranium, over and over again:
1. No way.
2. Pretty please.
3. History bears this out as possible.
4. History bears out lots of times that disprove possibility of #3.
5. Aggggggh!
6. Well the heck, if you are going to knock our socks off that much, can’t you just eek into the 14th???
7. Breathe, Strawberry, breathe
8. I checked out that site once - do I have an ITD (internet transmitted disease) now, that will take down ol’ trusty the laptop here at just the wrong, pre-referral moment?
LID 12/14/05
October 25th, 2007 at 10:39 am
hopesemper,
Recent referral batches have been arriving on the 2nd or 3rd of the month …
October 25th, 2007 at 10:42 am
Always taking a grain of salt with any rumor…
BUT
if my LID were between December 1st and 12th, I would be freaking out right now…
With a LID of 12/20/05 - Cheers to (maybe) freaking out this time next month!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 10:49 am
This is wonderful!!! I would love to see
our friends with a lid of 12/19/05 get a
referral for XMAS. Best wishes to all of
Dec-2005, YOU DESERVE FAST REFERRALS
After your long wait!!!!!
I wish you all the best!!!!
LBIN
Lid 11/18/05
Metcha Day 09/10/07 ( For the best girl in the world)
http://www.ost.redthreadkids.org
http://www.forallisonwithlove.blogspot.com
October 25th, 2007 at 10:52 am
wow, I’m cautiously optimistic, can’t help myself. Best of luck December!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 10:53 am
hopesemper, I believe we are hoping for referrals Nov2 or Nov 5, but could be as far as Nov 9. I’m guessing closer to Nov 5th!!! Let’s go December, I wanna be China for Christams!!!!
LID 12/5/05 NEXT!!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 10:59 am
And as usual, even if CCAA matches to the 12th, we still have to wait to see what they actually mail.
I’m crossing all my body parts for you Dec. folks!
October 25th, 2007 at 11:18 am
I am thrilled by the latest rumors! Even though the 12th would be an improvement over recent numbers, I am crossing my fingers that they will make it a little further. With a Dec26th LID, 11-12 days per month would put us right after the cutoff. We would get a January referral as opposed to a December referal. I know….I should be
happy that our time is close at hand. However, when you have waitedthis long, a month makes all the difference in the world!
October 25th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Good luck all you in line! As to yesterdays comment about the CCAA site that was not working for a few days. Fixed last night Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. m
October 25th, 2007 at 11:31 am
RQ,
I noticed the poll results on the 8/9 post and 8/5 post differ quite a bit, is there a reason?
8/9 has 179 families for the 1-12 of december while the 8/5 has the 154 that SherryVermont quoted, in the end it makes the analysis of the time period change a bit.
thanks for all your help on the site.
bring on a nice batch, in number of days, but more so, number of families.
October 25th, 2007 at 11:40 am
The most recent poll closed on 8/4 - you can see it here
http://www.chinaadopttalk.com/ChinaAdoptTalkPollresults.html
So, I’m not sure what polls you are talking about?
October 25th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Come on referrals! Looking forward to being able to FINALLY SAY NEXT!!!
Marcia P
LID: 12/15/05
GO SOX!!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 11:56 am
RQ,
I think I am becoming obsessed with numbers and I am SO totallly far from being a numbers person. Anyway, I know you are not gong to do another LID date poll until more of the dates on the current poll have been referred. But, what I would find helpful is if another poll for the month people are logged it, since the last one was done close to 5 months ago. Am curious to know how the numbers for the next few months have changed. I know there are a lot of variables that impact those numbers, but am curious if it would give us a little look at attrition. IMHO that chart gives a clearer idea of the numbers than membership in the monthly forum rooms.
Thanks for all you do!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
the 12th would be very very very very nice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
I don´t know if this rumor will be true, but I would like to share with all you that the site where the rumor is, it has a lot of credibility for hundred of families. They never have said any wrong rumor. Last month they said during several days that even there were bad rumors, they expect to get in december, but more like a wish than like a rumor. And the 27th of september they said that probably the cut off was 30th. So they were right (again).
I just would like to say that they try to analize and share information, like here, in this fabolous site. So, even if they are wrong know, I think we sould treat them with respect, because they said that it´s a rumor for them with a lot of credibility, because they have contact with China. But they also say that until the CCAA publish this in its page, nothing is real.
I hope they are right and we get the 12th this time.
Thank you for doing this job Rumor Queen. And Thank you for the Europen Site for doing a similar job, for not english speakers.
October 25th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Hi RQ, just me again. I went to the blog posts on 8/5 (totals 154 on that chart for 1-12 dec)and 8/9 (totals 179 on that chart for 1-12 dec) which gave poll results from the most recent poll (both referencing the 8/4 poll), but the totals for time periods and in general for individual days are different. I was trying to figure out why, but didn’t notice a difference, perhaps I missed a footnote or something about scrubbing the data to removed people who voted incorrectly?
Not a big deal but it confused me a bit.
October 25th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
I don´t know if this rumor will be true, but I would like to share with all you that the site where the rumor is, it has a lot of credibility for hundred of families. They never have said any wrong rumor. Last month they said during several days that even there were bad rumors, they expect to get in december, but more like a wish than like a rumor. And the 27th of september they said that probably the cut off was 30th. So they were right (again).
I just would like to say that they try to analize and share information, like here, in this fabolous site. So, even if they are wrong know, I think we sould treat them with respect, because they said that it´s a rumor for them with a lot of credibility, because they have contact with China. But they also say that until the CCAA publish this in its page, nothing is real.
I hope they are right and we get the 12th this time.
Thank you for doing this job Rumor Queen. And Thank you for the Europen Site for doing a similar job, for not english speakers..
October 25th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
magpiesmom,
After looking at what you were saying, it appears that the poll used in the 8/9 post was actually the March 11, 2007 poll results. If you click on “Poll Results” and scrol down the page to the March 11th poll, you will notice the numbers correspond to the numbers on the 8/9 post. Hope this helps!
Greg
LID 12/20/2007
October 25th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
yeah I just tried to figure it out too and so I went back through all the poll archives till I could find the poll before august poll. Sure enough, the results shown on the 8/9 post (adding up to 179) were actually from the previous poll in march which were posted originally in mid april. The results on the 8/5 post were from the august poll, that’s the difference. so I guess the range in poll results is 179 to 154?
Thanks for the help, I understand now and will keep that in mind looking at the numbers.
But 179 sure sounded so much more impressive than the 154!
oh well. 154 is still better than 68, but I’d love to see even higher.
October 25th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
I hope we at least get through the 12th but I know it is pushing it a bit! Come on CCAA…throw us a bone!
Funny….I just noticed my spam word is CCAA…ha
October 25th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
Here’s to getting FAR into December!
October 25th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
Ok…I’ve been offline all day and logged in to find this rumor. We are LID 12/12/05!!! I (not so smartly) informed my DH after last month’s referrals that I would be happy to get our referral in December. I assumed there was NO WAY we would be in for this month. So…still guarding my heart…but ever so hopeful.
Carrie
12/12/05
October 25th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
GO December GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! In the Feb. ‘06 LID room there is a new poll, please vote. If youre not on this room with youre Feb. ‘06 LID join us soon!!!!! youre welcome!!!
October 25th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
RQ I can’t find your predictions for this batch and do you still stay by them as your best guess..
CarleeMom—is starting to get anxious
LID 12/7/05 for Cadee Anee
DD Carlee Maoming Maonan Guangdong
http://cadeemakes4.blogspot.com
October 25th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Positive vibes!!! Yipee!!! I need something to give me hope! Take Care All, T LID 7-28-06
October 25th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
…..well my anti-spam word was “baby”…….CCAA send on those referrals….December 12th-15th…will be just fine number….Please let it be true!!!!!
LID MARCH 17, 2006
October 25th, 2007 at 9:25 pm
Oh my a little HOPE!!!!
Becky
12-09-05
October 25th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
Congratulations to all. We are praying for you. With our file only sent to China on Oct 22,07, we are now going to make our long wait. But are very happy to see everyone else happy…
October 25th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
This would be the most incredible news……….right now it’s just a dream, but dreams come true……. don’t they??
October 25th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
Sorry to change the subject, but does anyone know what happened to “Ni Hao Kai Lan”? I thought it was supposed to start last Monday? We just got back in town and were so excited to see it, but it’s not listed in the TV Guide anywhere??? Anyone know??
October 25th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
I saw on one of the yahoo groups that it wasn’t going to start until after the first of the year. I will try and find the post and let you know when it said it was to air. BUMMER! I have been looking so forward to it.
Mendy
October 25th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
The post said that they had went to the Nick Jr webpage and it said “starting February 2008″. Don’t know why?
October 25th, 2007 at 10:41 pm
Thanks Wendy! I didn’t even think to go to the Nick website. I think I’m more excited about the new show than my four year old!
Why am I not surprised that anything to do with China requires a wait!!! Ha!
October 25th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
Fantastic news! I think it is entirely possible. I still believe CCAA will do what they have said in regards to finishing, or nearly finishing, Dec 05 in Dec 07.
To my friend, Beth in SC, we’re hoping for you guys with your 12/20 LID!
Best wishes to all!
babysister
lid 11/17/06 for DD2
October 25th, 2007 at 11:16 pm
I thought CCAA said that the wait would reach 2 years in Dec 07… not that they would finish Dec 05 in 07?
Though I sure would like them to!
October 26th, 2007 at 8:57 am
I have read a theory somewhere that China intentionally stretched the wait out to two years and intends to maintain it there (by referring 1/2 of Dec in Nov and 1/2 in Dec). Then they will refer 15 days per month.
This was just speculation by the writer but it may be possible. If it is true that China is NOT wanting negative attention during the Olympics, they would want their IA program small but STABLE. If they are still referring 2 to 5 days there WILL be negative attention as to the neglect of their orphans.
Totally a theory- but one that brings hope of stability- so I’m sticking to it.
Ironic, I used to cry at the thought of a two year wait. Now, I would cry tears of joy!
LID 7/26/06
October 26th, 2007 at 9:18 am
And I said I was not going to ride this roller coaster this time. I am hooked and hope this is so true.
JEBMBC
October 26th, 2007 at 9:20 am
Even if they started referring 15 days a month, the wait would continue to grow beyond 2 years. By the end of next year it would grow to 3. 15 days would be GREAT, in my book, as it would slow down the rate of increase. The only way the wait could stay at 2 years would be if the CCAA started to refer whole months again. Sorry east and west.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:41 am
east and west, it might have been me that posted that theory on the forum (although I know other people have the same theory). But in my case what I had said was they were carefully engineering the wait to two years at end of ‘07 (as they basically told us they would do), then up to three years by end of ‘08 by referring half-months (as they said they would do). After that, I am HOPING they would stabilize at 3 yrs by referring full months.