If matching has begun
There are two agencies who do not believe that matching has begun yet, and a few who do believe that it has begun.
If it has begun then I’d expect them to be mailed at some point next week. Sometimes they are mailed on the day that it is announced they are now matching, and sometimes it is four or five days later before they are mailed. And, once or twice, it’s been even longer before they were mailed.
The odd thing is that I’m not hearing from a lot of people who say “my LID is m/d and my agency just told me I’m not in this batch”, or “my lid is m/d and my agency told me I have been matched”. There is one rumor of an agency who thinks the 9th is in (not that the 9th is the cut off, but that the 9th is in, and that they believe they may have reached the 12th), and one agency who thinks the 10th is in (not that it is the cut off, just that they think it is in). That’s all I see. And at this point it is two agency reports from one person at each agency, so we aren’t very high up on the R scale with it at all.
As we’ve theorized before, if they have matched ahead then this could be why the agencies are not hearing from their individual matchers anymore. But, I don’t believe that everyone is being matched ahead of time though, so we’d still expect some information to come out.
But as of now, I’m not seeing the kind of reporting we usually see three or four days before referrals are mailed. And, we’ve only seen the “good” rumors. We haven’t had the “good” rumors and then the “bad” rumors and then the “real” rumors. I hope that the good rumors stick. I’m not saying they will or won’t at this point, just trying to point some things out.
I’ve had a few people ask to see the projections again. Here they are:
And, one other point to make. It has been noted that when the CCAA did a very small month earlier this year, the month right after it was bigger, so that the two months together averaged out to about the norm. If the CCAA follows that pattern then this month might be a little bigger than normal. But that’s just speculation, not a rumor.
To summarize: The rumor that they are matching gets an R3, but none of the other rumors are higher than an R2 at this point. I need more people from the agencies who are talking to give me the information in order to push what we have up to an R3. Or, we need more agencies talking. I think there is reason to cautiously hope that this batch will be bigger than we’ve been seeing, but I’m not seeing anything yet to make me think it’s a sure thing.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:04 am
SIGH.. back to reality. These still are really just rumors.
But I WANT them to be true!! LOL
October 26th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Here’s the official “VTToonses Conspiracy Theory” as to what is happening.
The November referrals will actually be at least through the 13th and the December referrals will finish the month. This way, they can meet the prediction of a 2 year wait by the end of 2007, and they can start their 2 weeks a month referral rate on a new year with a new year of LIDs. I think this is also why the October referrals stopped at the end of November. There are just too many “round numbers” for my delusional mind to accept!
Just in case it needs to be said, there is absolutely no support for these suppositions and planning your life around them is probably a bad idea. My wife had also asked me to state that she does not support this theory (or any of the others) and apologizes to the rest of you for “unleashing me upon you.”
October 26th, 2007 at 10:48 am
vttoonses: hahahahaha-you’re wife is funny! I really hope they get through the 12th and finish December in December-what a boost that would be!
LID 12/5/05
October 26th, 2007 at 11:01 am
I BELIEVE they will finish all of ‘05, by the end of ‘07!!
I agree completely with vttoonses!
There were murmurs of this happening a loooong time ago (before they started referring November ‘05 LID’s) and I, for one, still hold out hope it WILL happen!!!
BTW… vtoonses, your wife IS funny, but she’s sooooo wrong not supporting “your theory”! :-)
October 26th, 2007 at 11:07 am
I HOPE! I HOPE! I HOPE!
OMG! I can’t stand all this waiting anymore. I feel like a rabid dog in a cage! Even though I know I will not get my referral this month– if the cut-off does turn out to be the 10-12th, there is a chance I will get it next month.
OMG!!!
I’ve gone from feeling numb to feeling like a pin cushion– one that is going to explode!
I’m getting a headache.
LID 12/20/05
October 26th, 2007 at 11:30 am
Patience…..I’m over it!!!
I want my baby girl. Come on CCAA let’s get way into December this time!
Emmaline’s Mom
LID 12/8/05
October 26th, 2007 at 11:31 am
I’m still clinging to the European rumor of “possibly 12/13″. Positive thoughts only… willing it to be so. Please, please, please, please, please…
—
LID 2/24/06
October 26th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
Anyone else getting a queasy feeling when they look at the Horrid case predictions??? C’mon good case!
October 26th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
I dunno, vttoonses, your wife sounds pretty smart and cool to me. And I bet she wants to believe in your theory but has a hard time emotionally doing it. ;)
October 26th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
vttoonses -
I love how you put all that! I dream that this is what will happen too.
But after last month and the report in the forum the Scandinavian report about the CCAA I am hesitant to even guess anymore. It all seems so manipulated. I now hesitate to think that the CCAA would do things just to make ’round’ numbers I am so disillusioned as to their concern for us PAP’s in the NSN program.
Sooo… I LOVE your thinking, way to be sewhopeful!
October 26th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
“VTToonses Conspiracy Theoryâ€
This has passed through my mind too, but I see conspiracy everywhere!
Maybe we should have an “Adoption-X-Files” thread in the forum. ;)
October 26th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
VTToonses-
If you want to go “round” (ish) numbers, then shouldn’t this month go till 12/15/05? :+)
-Sincerely one 12/14/05er
October 26th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
Three cheers for the VTToonses theory!! I like the way you think! =)
October 26th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
I agree w/Strawberry. If we’re going w/roundish numbers, then how about going through 15 1/2!!!
GO SOX!
Marcia P
LID: 12/15/05
October 26th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
RQ, Do you have any speculations/guesses/predictions as to how the recent holiday will affect this batch?
October 26th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Fingers crossed. I too think they’ll try to reach 2 years at New Year’s. I was hoping that it meant that they would stay there, but after reading about the Swedish meeting with CCAA, where CCAA is supposed to have said that PAPs should expect 3-4 years… I don’t know anymore.. I was more optimistic before I read that..
October 26th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
All I can say at this point is:
LIFE IS WHAT HAPPENS WHILE YOU ARE MAKING OTHER PLANS!!!!!!!
October 26th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
RQ
Thanks for maintaining the intergrity of your rating system despite our desires for an R5!
DD
October 26th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
Forget the 13th. I’m shooting for the 20th. LMAO wouldn’t that be great.
October 26th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
cnjeff0168,,
Love the way you think!!!!!!
Come On Stork,,, flap those wings,, if there are too many referrals for him to carry,,, I will GLADLY go and help carry them to their forever famlies!!!
October 26th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
where does one find information about this swedish meeting with CCAA?
October 26th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
In Sweden???
Sorry I digress.
October 26th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Here’s the link- it’s in Genral Discussions
http://chinaadopttalk.com/forum/index.php?topic=11682.0
October 26th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
I’m gonna ask a dumb question - how come they only start matching a few days before the referrals are sent out? What are they doing the rest of the month?!! (sorry I haven’t always followed this blog - I’m sure you’ve probably explained it before… sorry for my ignorance!)
Lee-Anne
October 26th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
I think that 3-4 years is probably conservative for those who just got their LID’s. We have almost a 2 year backlog of dossiers, to make a 3 year wait for those just LID, it would mean they would need to refer more than 15 days per month…more like 18-19 days per month. Is that possible? Sure, anything is possible. Probable? I don’t think so, there are a few large months ahead of us, I doubt they would do that large a batch each and every month. So, that projection doesn’t surprise me, I am waiting for them to say 5 years….. :-(
October 26th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
vttoonses,
I like your projection! We can dream, can’t we? (:
Kim
October 27th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
…sorry for my ignorance..but why is in this electronic age we are waiting “paper referrals” can’t referrals be scanned into computers and with the magic “SEND” button..presto everything in moments is sitting in each adoption agency????? with the paper to come that needs to come….of course..
…Just a question..anyone know the answer??
LID March 17, 2006
October 27th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
ok, so maybe I am a little slow, but would someone explain the 2 week batch thing to me. I have heard about this before, but not sure what that means…does it mean that they are going to refer 15 days worth every 15 days, in turn meaning 30 days worth for dates every 30 days???
so confused…
LID 6-4-07
October 28th, 2007 at 12:25 am
No. It means they *might* send out batches with 15 days in each, each batch still about 30 days apart. Seeing as it’s been forever since we’ve seen more than a week’s worth, 15 days seems like a lot.
October 28th, 2007 at 11:48 am
KIM1~ I am with you if we can’t dream, we’re really in trouble :)
Sherry~ I think 15 days sounds like a lot and why all of a sudden can this happen? I’ll believe it when I see it.
October 28th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
mom 222b
It could happen because there are a LOT fewer LIDs in Dec than Nov 05.
If they do almost two weeks of LIDS, then it would be more calendar days (which is good), but it could potentially still be the same # of referrals as before.
babysister, LID 11/17/06 for DD2
October 28th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Because there aren’t as many LIDs each day as there were in the previous months. So they can do more days in a month.
But - last month… I “counted” on so many days (based on LID numbers), and it fell way, way short in numbers.
If it’s true the SN referrals and NSN referrals added together make up a batch - seems they are close to half SN and half NSN now… then I don’t know how much relevance the polls have any more… because SN referrals kinda push back the NSN referrals.
Or so it seems.
October 28th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
aut2china,
Sorry, I don’t know the answer to your question but welcome to the site. I love your blog. You and your hubby are my kind of people. What is you LID?
October 28th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
I wanna see the stork in the air!!!!!!
Adomom
October 28th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
I agree with adomom12…we need to hear some rumors about the stork….it is way too quiet!! Lets hope they make it at least to the 10-12th this month (of course I want more….)…but I think the 10-12th is realistic…just my opinion…CTG
October 28th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
We want the stork! We want the stork!
October 29th, 2007 at 12:22 am
Why IS it so quiet this month? Maybe it just seems like it to all of us expecting a referral in this batch. Come on stork!!!!!
LID 12/5/05
October 29th, 2007 at 4:57 am
If matching has begun, when we will know we have been matched?
LID 8TH December 2005