I’ve been reminded of this little graphic that comes from the poll that closed March 11th.
On it, you can get an idea of the size (in poll numbers) of recent batches.
Also, I’ll note that in the comments in the previous thread someone noted that their agency said the 15th is not in. I can’t really rate that one, as I don’t know the agency, but I figured I’d post it out here to make sure it did not get lost in the other comments.
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October 29th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
Looking pretty pathetic lately :( N
October 29th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
I just home and pray they finish December 2005 by the end of this year. That will at least be an accomplishment.
J.
LID: April 11, 2006
October 29th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
If they get through the 12th with the next batch I think it is looking extremely good for getting thru Dec. 05 in Dec. 07. To my way of thinking that would mean 2 more batches after this - it seems (at least in recent history) that the CCAA finishes their batches at the end of the month and we get them early the next month, so our “January” batch is really their “December” batch.
October 29th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Thanks RQ. I hope that the cut off is the 12th. Also, I have noticed that when you are told by a parent that their LID is not in (like the person with the 15th lid), that seems to always remain the case. The question we have now is whether any of the days before that are included. Looking forward to the referrals.
October 29th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
Now wouldn’t that make for a pretty chart if the next color went all the way to the bottom:) Wishful thinking, I know!
October 29th, 2007 at 5:19 pm
“Also, I have noticed that when you are told by a parent that their LID is not in (like the person with the 15th lid), that seems to always remain the case.”
I thought about that too! Is that right RQ? Did it ever happen, that you were told someone was not in, and they turned out to be in after all?
October 29th, 2007 at 5:30 pm
Well, as a Dec. 12/05 LID I have to admit my bubble just burst! I knew it was a thin bubble, but having now done the math, I do not see how it is at all possible we will be included in the November batch.
Oct. 25 - 26 = 79
Oct. 27 - Nov.1 = 170
Nov. 2 - 7 = 114
Nov. 8 - 14 = 138
Nov. 15 - 21 = 114
Nov. 22 - 25 = 106
Nov. 26 - 30 = 81
Over the past 8 months there have been an average 115 referrals per month issued, with the largest month being 170.
Barring a major surge, they will not get to December 12th. To do so would mean 179 referrals (according to RQ’s poll numbers).
Likely they will get to Dec. 7th = 97, or Dec. 8th = 120
Possibly they will include the 9th and 10th (the 10th being very small - so thrown in for good measure).
Guess I’ll set my heart ahead where it belongs…in December. Would love to be proven wrong, but it’s not likely.
China4
October 29th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
It does normally work out that once an agency knows someone is not in, they probably are not. However, I don’t think it is always the case, I can remember one case where someone was told they were not in, and they were. It was a case of one days difference though, not of a huge span of difference.
As for whether the 12th is possible, it is possible. It has been a long time since we’ve seen a batch of that size, but last year’s batches were sometimes that size and were not considered impossible. Plus, since last month was so small, and since we’ve sometimes seen bigger batches immediately following the smallest batches, that also gives hope.
Now, if we just had some good juicy rumors. Is no one else out there hearing anything from their agencies? We’ve got one person being told the 9th is in, one person being told the 10th is in, and one person being told the 15th is not in, and none of those above an R2 at the moment. We need more. I know you December people have to be about to lose your minds.
October 29th, 2007 at 7:14 pm
Sorry RQ-
Too late…my brain rolled away under my coworkers desk and out the door about the thursday before last, right around 2:15cdt… :^)
October 29th, 2007 at 7:59 pm
China4 I’m rooting for you……. keeping all crossed for 12th inclusive…. I think this would be wonderfully optimistic news. Can’t wait as usual, but not holding my breath just yet.
Good luck everyone, my thoughts, and PRAYERS are with you all….I’m shuffling along right behind you….
Shelley
lid 3/28/06 19 lid - versary yesterday….. can’t believe we’re entering our 20th month.
October 29th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Come on CCAA, make this batch your bitch!!!!!!!!HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
October 29th, 2007 at 10:21 pm
I am the 5th and my agency is not telling me to count on anything. But they are also saying not to discount anything either. I really think they should run for Presidient! For last two months they have only received SN referrals and no LID referrals. I can’t imagine that I would not be in but anything is possible! Please let me be in!!!!!
Adomom
12-5-05
October 29th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
You better be in, adomom, or we’re all in for a big shock:) Can’t wait to see your referral announcement!!!
October 30th, 2007 at 4:22 am
I’ll be stoked if they get through the 12 Dec! All the closer to my Feb date!!! (very selfish I know!)
October 30th, 2007 at 6:41 am
RQ - what do you think about the source in Spain saying the 5th-9th?
October 30th, 2007 at 6:53 am
After seeing this chart, I think the cutoff will be Dec. 7 or 8. If they got to the 12….WOW!
October 30th, 2007 at 10:16 am
According to the pollsm, that would be 1/3 of december at the october batch (arriving soon I hope) and if they manage to do another 1/3 in the november batch and another in the decemberbatch that will keep them right on track for finishing december in december!
Greetings, Chinalotus