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Updated the HistoriesI’ve updated the historical page to show the latest updates. I wanted to point this page out since I think there are some who may not have been aware of it. I’m including one of the tables from that page below. The last column shows days referred in each period. And, you can watch the min and max wait times to get an idea of how rapidly the wait goes up each month.
Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege. 35 Responses to “Updated the Histories” |
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December 8th, 2007 at 10:01 am
when i see these charts, my eye always goes to 10-3-05 –which appears to be the first day of the nightmare that still haunts us now.
on that day, we had no idea then how bad it would get later!
thanks for the chart, RQ, very interesting. i’m always amazed that people can look at a chart like this and still believe that the slowdown was not orchestrated.
December 8th, 2007 at 10:13 am
This chart shows why I don’t believe the primary reason for the decrease in referrals is that fewer children being abandoned and/or an increase in domestic adoptions. The number of days decreases far too dramatically.
I recognize that the number of files in each day is a more accurate measure of how many children are being referred, but I don’t think that the number of files in each day in May 06 (referred 5 days) was six times the number of files in each day in January (referred 38 days). I think that we can take some idea of number of children from the number of days even if it isn’t a direct correlation.
If an increase in DA or a decrease in abandonment were the primary reason we would see a much more gradual decline. Societal attitudes don’t change over a period of six months. Masses of people don’t suddenly start making dramatically more money over a period of six months. Something else changed.
Whether there is a quota or politics (the MOD telling the CCAA what to do) or trying to increase SN, something is holding the CCAA back from referring more children.
I want to believe that there are empty SWIs all over China, I truly do. But I just don’t know.
B
4/19/06
December 8th, 2007 at 10:16 am
Hi RQ have you ever averaged out he amount of refferalls, ta’s or what ever against what the US or China has said that they’ve done for a year to gat an average of numbers besides the ones who log into your surveys? Mark
December 8th, 2007 at 10:36 am
It’s hard to believe they used to reffer over a month at a time! That is something! Our friends whos dossier went to China 5 months before us got their daughter Chloes refferal 14 months before us. Unbelieveable!
Heidi
December 8th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Yeah, I see that new poll box. Thanks RQ!!!!!!
December 8th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
thank you RQ !!!
Very happy to be abble to vote in this poll !
Severine lid 01/24/06
December 8th, 2007 at 12:59 pm
RQ – Just looked at the historical data. Would it be beneficial to also look at total Time Logged In before review?
For example:
March 30, 2006 LID to RRoom – approx. 11 months
April 30, 06 – 14 months
May 30, 06 – 13 months
June 30 – 13 months
December 8th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
eli-
We were in the 10/03/05 batch. We didnt know it at the time but yes, it does look like the beginning of the nightmare. We had a quick referral for our daughter (although it didnt seem like it at the time). We have joined the forever wait for dd #2 with a lid in 2/07.
December 8th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
oh man, I was all excited to vote in the new poll and then saw it only goes until Feb 12th! oh well. I can’t wait to see the info from this poll!
Sara
LID 2/27/06
December 8th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
I believe the number of dossiers did quadruple over time. So while it may not be six times as many–it was probably at least four times as many. That coupled with some decrease in available children–and whatever other things you want to factor in is what brought us to the current situation.
Thanks for the data, RQ.
December 8th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Thanks RQ…
December 8th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Am I being thick here?? I can’t see a new poll box, where is it?
December 8th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
uk marion, you cant see it when the comments are open.
when you first come onto the site, before you click on ‘comments’ , you should be able to see it on the top of the page — purple box.
December 8th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
I’m of the same opinion as jj2china. I really cannot believe the “official” reasons given for the slowdown. Sure, there are probably fewer abandonments, more domestic adoptions, and that a larger persentage of the children are SN than before. But still, what on earth happened in 05 for that drastic a change???
The only reason I can think of is politics. As the waiting time decreased the popularity increased, and suddenly every single newspaper and media was having a story about IA, and the featured family seems every time to be a happy new family with their daughter from China. China was suddenly _the_ nation for IA adoption, at least in media, and I’m sure this is not an image that any country wants.
But, I’m of course only guessing. If it turns out that the reasons really are that there are fewer children abandoned and a dramatical increase in domestic adoptions, I really truly honestly couldn’t be happier!
December 8th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
JJtochina, I wholeheartedly agree with you. There was an article in our local paper the other day about China adoptions and the reason for the slowdown. They were reiterating what Chinese officials have been telling the agencies..that there are more domestic adoptions and less children in the orphanges. BAlogne! If the readers only knew….
December 8th, 2007 at 5:13 pm
jj2china, I think you are overlooking a few major factors which may have caused the dramatic drop-off in referral days in the fall 2005.
In the fall of ’05 a major story broke that orphanage directors in Hunan were trafficing babies in order to meet the demand for IA. Subsequently, the entire provience of Hunan temporarily halted IA adoption. Also, the scandal and it’s reprucussions probably scared other orphanage directors away from IA.
Also, in the fall of ’05, China ratified the Haque agreement, an international agreement that stipulates a country must exhaust domestic adoption of babies before pursuing IA.
While this was all going on, the CCAA was being flooded with an unprecedented number of IA dossiers and China’s economy was surging.
December 8th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
Am I remembering correctly that the current head of the CCAA started around that Oct?
December 8th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
I read somewhere here that this last 6 day batch [Dec 8-14,05] contained a weekend so there were actually only 4 days worth of LIDs referred.
Does anyone know if that’s correct?
December 8th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
Can someone expand on the Hunan scandal. I probably could look it up but I am too lazy.
Is this recently? I only started China in 2005, and bought home our ds home in 2006. It seems a lot of babies/children are referred from this area, or is that my imagination? I remember people referring to their dd’s as
Spicy Hunan girls.
December 8th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
The way I look at it, November was the slowest month. Which, as I recall, was huge.
It still doesn’t explain the small batch this month. Then again, they were working half days for awhile. I guess we’ll see what happens in this next batch.
I still think the Olympics plays a huge role.
December 8th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Re: The Poll. Who said Jamnuary was small? January is HUGE. Egads.
December 8th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
RQ,
Do you know if CCAA shut down for Chinese New Year in 2006? If so, on which days were they closed?
Long time lurker, first time poster!
LID: February 9, 2006
December 8th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
I would really love to have a new monthly poll. The last one was in June. I am curious to see if the numbers are down for months that are at least a year away. My LID is July and I there are many people who have accepted SN referrals, started concurrent adoptions, or just dropped out of communication for whatever reason.
Please RQ can we have another monthly poll?
December 9th, 2007 at 9:36 am
with a late 06 LID,
I wonder how much of a speed up is needed for the wait to ONLY be 4 years.
this chart proves it for me……….. the writing was on the wall WAAAAY before we signed on and no one felt the need to share.
wish I knew this site existed back then
December 9th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
Anyone heard about the orphanage children being sent to foster homes so that the journalists for the Olympics can be allowed into the orphanages to “document” the empty orphanage rooms?
Remember….China has 1.5 Billion people and this was the Year Of The Pig” when a baby boom was anticipated. Were they all boys? I doubt it…Domestic adoption? Please….it’s not about the children anymore….it’s about the Olympics and proving to the world they can take care of their own.
December 9th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
Waitingforever – Hit the Nail-on-the-Head :(
December 9th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
One lady who just came back from China reported that her Guide in China said the CCAA will not be doing any referrals, TA’s for 3 months. This is what she said.
The children in our ds’s WI are not being placed in foster families, but that was their goal anyway. That is an interesting question. I am sure that people will be covering all aspects of Chinese culture, and probably adoption if it
is a big news draw.
December 9th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
JJCHINA, I agree with you.
Waitingforever, I just had a similar conversation w/a rep. from my agency (small primarily China), and she said she believes the Olympics is the reason for the slow down.
@ one point I asked “So, if reporters want to document their IA program, do they load all their babies into a bus & shuttle them to another orphanage, to “prove” that their abandoments rates are down?” She pretty much ignored that comment…
Oh, well. I guess time will tell if the Olympics are the “real” reason for the slow down…
Lisa.
December 9th, 2007 at 10:38 pm
Waitingforever, where did you hear or read what you are writing about?
December 10th, 2007 at 9:04 am
So the slow down started over two years ago (we were just starting our process then)…Is it realistic to believe that there will ever be a “speed up”. I mean, really, it has been over two years…!
December 10th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Unbelievable! We went to our 1st adoption meetings in August and September of 2005. We didn’t feel ready for a child in 6 months or so, since we just moved to our 1st house. The following year, we were and the time was over a year, already. Then the December meeting happened and we had to change countries before we really even began. If only I knew back in Sept. ’05 the wait would increase so quickly. We would have gladly got in line and we might have had our child by this coming summer or before!
December 10th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
vnmama2b,
We, too, attended our first adoption meeting in August of 2005. We jumped right in and were finished the paperchase in just over three months. We were told it would be 6 to 8 months until referral. Now, it is 23 months later and, if six days each month continues, we will be late spring until referral! It truly is unbelievable. And heartbreaking.
HopefulFor07 — which obviously is not happening. Who would have thought?
December 10th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
HI TO WAITINGFORSARA, IF YOUR ONLINE,HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY TRIP TO CHINA.
December 11th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
I started this about 2.5 years ago – we have 2 daughters of our own – I feel blessed and yet so very sad for those waiting for their first. It is not ethically moral for these agencies to continue signing people up and sending dossiers – all of us have been there – the initial process – we were all so excited about our babies we were “expecting” – it is the same – at least it was for me – as time goes by – forms expire and expenses accrue – our daughters drift further away from the age of their sister. This is not what any of us signed up for – we have made irreversible decisions keeping us from having additional biological children – I even got a mini van – ha – how sad that we and these little people are such innocent by standers in such a chaotic process – we are all good people with good intentions – do these agencies (G—) realize that they are toying with “expectant” parents???????
December 12th, 2007 at 12:58 am
Hi we are still in the process of getting our dossier together.I
was prepared for a 24 month wait , but had no idea about the
backlog . Now we are looking at 4 years that is a long time.
I’m pretty bumped out about it .