Projections
For those who may be new, every month after referrals I make some projections of what the next cut off might be. This is done based on our poll numbers, not rumors.
First, let’s look at the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Sadly, this was one of the smallest batches we’ve seen (recent history here, not all time).
Next, to get an idea of how previous months have fared on the “Horrid/Bad/Mid/Good” scenarios, we have this little graphic. It doesn’t go back farther because before June I was moving numbers around, in June I settled on some numbers to use and have used them consistently. The horrid case has happened once before this month, that’s why the column was there to start with. Now it has happened twice.
I know there are people who want me to rename the labels I’m using, but at this point I’m going for consistency. Yes, the horrid and bad cases do seem to be the new norm, but for the sake of having a constant measuring tool, I’ll leave the labels and numbers I’m using as is.
And finally, here are my projections:
And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
Don’t forget to scroll down for the Babies! post.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Thanks RQ…
It seems the horrid-bad cases are the new norms…YUCK is the only decent four letter word I can use here.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
LID 12/12/06……sigh
But, thanks for your hard work and for keeping us informed, even though it is absolutely not what we want to hear.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:57 pm
RQ - for the poll that closed on 8/4 for this latest batch I got a count of 98 respondents not 72. It still stinks but is not any worse than last month. Am I counting them up wrong?
December 10th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
I have the same number waitingfor2……I am confused.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
I get 98 for 8/4 and 95 for 3/11
December 10th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
12/20 was my guess for next batch. Looks like I might be right. :(
December 10th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Yup me too, I have 98 from the most recent poll and 95 from the one before it.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
RQ, thank you for everything you and your mods do. I know I (and many others) would be lost without this special “kingdom”.
Well, its looking more and more like I get to pin my hopes on April 08…although it promises to be a nail-biter if we are indeed the cutoff for that month. (April is dh and my anniversary…we were married 6yrs before baby1 joined our family by birth..and will have been married 13 years by the time baby#2 makes his or way to us via China.)
I know, things could change… but April gives me a good working “guesstimate”. provided things don’t slow down further!
Tracy
LID 1-12-06
December 10th, 2007 at 5:27 pm
The horrid case being the new norm is so discouraging. I don’t know how much hope I have left in me. 23 months of hope used up and counting…
December 10th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
Hi RQ, Thanks for the projections. I realize that sometimes we use the different polls and get different numbers from you as you can see by the above comments.
Can you post the ranges of the numbers of referrals that y6ou use for the horrid, bad, mid and good case scenarios?
Thanks.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
Come on bad case!!! OMG, what am I saying??? I think I’ve gone nuts. Bad case has become good case and mid case has become dream case. I can’t wait to get off this ride.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
On a 10/7/07 post December 15 was a bad case scenario, how and when did December 14 become horrid and you mention that was the 2nd horrid case when was the first? Thanks.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
RQ ,in the new poll some people voted on date’s that can’t be right. the first week of Feb. they were closed for chinese newyear. why do people do that?I wanted to vote to but we are lid 14 Feb.’06, so close!!
December 10th, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Thanks for the projections. Either way, horrid or bad, I should have referral in the February batch. 25+ months of waiting. I never thought I would be the first to wait that long. I feel so bad for those who will have to wait longer. Mid case would be a dream…..
Wendy
LID 12/27/05
http://adopptionandfire.typepad.com
December 10th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
Yuck my date moved from Horrid last month to Bad this month. RQ if you are looking at this just wondering (I do not remember) if you normally do a LID poll prior to a projection? I thought that if you didn’t the increase in people in the poll may be something that has not been factored in previous projections. I know I am thinking way to much and hoping the increase does not definitely move me to February. Thanks for doing the poll and the projection!
Danielle LID 12/22/05
December 10th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
Just think - at this rate, Michael Vick will be out of jail again, and Lord Conrad Black will be 2/3 of the way thru his sentence by the time I bring my daughter home!!! :-(
December 10th, 2007 at 11:55 pm
It looks more and more likely with a September 13/06 LID that we won’t be home with our child until late 2010…or 2011.
December 11th, 2007 at 12:37 am
Chinese New Year was February 18th last year, not the first week.
December 11th, 2007 at 1:07 am
I think my posts aren’t showing up.
Wendy
LID 12/27/05
December 11th, 2007 at 8:33 am
OMG! I’m sooo nervous!! With a LID 12/20/05 I guess I should figure that we are in. . . but what if we’re not. I know that referrals have not (yet) been less than the Horrid case. . .
*SIGH*
Plus, my agency has two DTC groups with a 12/20/05 LID and we are in the 2nd DTC group. I’m scared that when referrals come, if 12/20/05 is the cut-off– we will be told that our LID was actually 12/21/05– not 12/20/05.
I’ve had my agency check with their contact in China on this and was told that everything is ok– but, I’m still scared.
I guess after waiting so long the paranoia is really starting to hit me.
December 11th, 2007 at 8:41 am
I thought I remembered CNY starting on January 29th, 2006 - I remember my dossier being held until February 3rd before my agency could send it because CCAA was closed. Is that right?
December 11th, 2007 at 8:48 am
Calamity4e:
I’m sure your LID is right. Just because your agency sent out 2 separate batches on different days doesn’t mean they have to have 2 separate LID’s. It just means that the person checking in dossiers from your agency didn’t get to the first batch until later on, when the second arrived.
December 11th, 2007 at 9:27 am
CNY will be 7 Feb 08 and was
18 Feb 07
29 Jan 2006
9 Feb 2005
December 11th, 2007 at 9:52 am
Yes, sometimes I am dumb as a rock, but, I am also very frustrated with the situation. Can someone please explain the last table to me? I am lost. Sorry.
LID: April 11, 2006
December 11th, 2007 at 11:31 am
scandwaiting,
In that table she’s saying that in January of 2008 when referrals come out that the worst possible scenario predicted is that they get through Dec. 20, 2005 LIDs. A slightly better prediction would be the “bad case” which is Dec. 22, 2005, and so on. Then she does the same for the February 2008 referrals, listing the horrid case prediction, the bad case prediction, etc., then the March 2008 referral prediction,and then April. She doesn’t predict further than the Horrid case in April because the data she has doesn’t really support making predictions that far out.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:33 am
Scandwaiting: We have the same LID!
I’ll try to explain the last table for you. What RQ is saying, is that based on her poll numbers, the absolute very least she would expect CCAA to match next month is up to and including LID 12/20, hence the “horrid” case. The “mid-case” is if they match about the same amount as they have averaged over the past year or so, which would take them up to and including 12/27. The “bad case” is somewhere in between “horrid” and “mid” and the good case is if they do a bit more than average. The “horrid” case is based on the lowest number of referrals given in recent months, and the “good” case is based on the largest number of referrals given in recent months (roughly the past year or so).
Projections for referrals after next month are based on how far CCAA may get that first month. There is no prediction for “good” case in February or for anything beyond “horrid” in March or April not because RQ thinks those months will be worse than usual, but because the data she is currently working off of does not allow her to make reliable predictions beyond LID 1/12/06, and better scenarios those months would include dates after that.
I hope that helps.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Like several previous posters, I’m still confused about the poll numbers for the 12/5 referral batch. I also think it should be 98 and 95 instead of 72 and 74 on the chart.
It looks like maybe the numbers for 12/14 were not counted?
December 11th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
Thanks, I really appreciate it. I have looked at tables and counted myself so many times and the wait keeps increasing. I am just not sure what to do.
Thanks again.
December 11th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
sherry in vermont that is what i mean they were closed at the first week of Feb’06 this poll is Feb.06
December 11th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
We were done with our dossier in mid Dec. 05. The Christmas holidays held us up for three weeks and we were DTC 1/13/06. Because of CNY (I believe the CCAA was closed for one week?) we didn’t get logged in until 2/06/06. At the time we thought it was no big deal. Now it’s costing us about six months of extra waiting. Aggghhhh!!
I thought that 2/06/06 was the first LID in February (b/c of CNY that year) but I saw a couple of people voted for earlier dates.
I don’t know what to think or believe anymore. I’m just impatiently waiting…
December 12th, 2007 at 12:00 am
I hate to say it but looking at the horrid/bad even good case scenerios, and some of the other backlog post and the issues with other countries, I would begin to guess that the CCAA mighnt not make to the end of April 2006 lids until the end of 2009 or end of of 2010. (140 days divided by 6 or 4 puts it at an additional 23 to 35 months of wait to get to April/May). This doenst take into consideration the withdrawal of people or the collapse of any of the agencies that may not be able to support themselves without new clients given these type of time frames
December 12th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Ninachtka,
We have the same DTC and LID as you!
As for everyone asking about voting in the LID poll in the first week of February, we were given those LIDS by our agencies, I don’t think anyone is trying to put anyone on. I would hope the date would not change because it coincided or coincides with CNY.
I have been hoping we will get a May referral, but sadly, I think my hopes are being dashed again.
Steph
LID 2/6/06
December 13th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
WelcomehomeKelly~
I think Ninachtka is referring to Feb. 1, 2, 3, (4 & 5 - Saturday and Sunday), not the first full week which began on 2/6/06.
Our dossier was also held up due to the holidays - DTC 2/3/06 and LID 2/28/06. I never knew what a few short weeks could really mean in the big scheme of things :(
On a good note - we’re getting a terrific snowstorm in the Northeast :)
December 13th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
mom222b,
I know how you feel about the few short weeks. I had my dossier completed at the end of November 05 and sent off to our agency all excited that we were making progress.
Our agency returned it to us because a date the letter was written did not match the date the official signed and notorized it. This meant I needed a new letter, notorized and reauthorized from our state. It held us up a month because I was unable to get it back to our agency until the end of December with holidays and all. It sits in the pit of my stomach that I could have had a login date in the beginning of January instead of February. I didn’t realize that this meant so much extra time back then but waiting is waiting. Oh well, I know there is a greater plan than mine.
How is that little storm you are getting in the Northeast? We had a lovely storm ourself earlier this week in the midwest.
December 13th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
P.S. I wasn’t referring to Ninachtka’s comments about earlier dates in February. But I feel her frustration!
December 13th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
WelcomehomeKelly~
Sorry I read your post too fast.
The storm is still going and another one is on its way for Sunday - I love the winter!!
December 14th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
We completed our dossier in January 06, but our agency didn’t get an adequate sized group together until March 06…so our completed dossier sat for 2 months!
At the rate things are going, this 2 month delay probably will now add 1+ years to our wait time… I could just cry :(
December 15th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
p12,
That is a real shame, I am so sorry to hear that.
This past summer I asked my social worker if I would be going around Thanksgiving of this year to get our baby. She said she thought so. Then I did the math myself as to where China was in the referral line and realized I wouldn’t be going until (hopefully) summer of 2008. I called my agency and asked to talk to another social worker, they chalked it up to her being new. That hurt, but I am glad I found this site. I felt so foolish then.
In the mean time, I have a great recipe for Margaritas that are fantastic and make me smile. ;-)
I think I will start sewing the baby’s crib accessories. I thought if I waited, it would make time go by faster when it gets to be crunch time. I hope you can find things to do that keep you sane as well.
Stef
LID 2/6/06
Take care