When?
Referrals began arriving this month on December 5, though the brunt of them did not arrive until December 6. For consistency’s sake I’ve got the 5th noted on the historical spreadsheets, since I show the date of the first arrival on that day.
The last 12 referral batches have arrived 34, 29, 32, 32, 25, 35, 30, 28, 32, 29, 31, and 33 days apart from each other.
The lowest is 25. The highest is 35. The average is 31. The number that shows up the most is 32 (at three times) but we also have 29 showing up twice.
With all of that in mind:
The soonest I’d expect to see them this month is Friday, December 28 (though honestly I think that’s a long shot with Christmas). The latest is Thursday, January 10.
The most likely arrival based on the numbers would be Friday, January 4 or Monday, January 7, but with Christmas and New Years falling in there, it might be more realistic to say that the 9th is the most likely.
December 11th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Oh my goodness oh my goodness! Thanks for this post RQ– I’ve been waiting for it to validate when I think our referral is coming. I can’t believe I’m > going to be a mom in less than 30 days!
LJ
12/20/05
December 11th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
Thanks RQ!
These dates are pretty much what I had figured.
OOooooohhhh!
Somebody please pass the Peto Bismal.
It is only December 11th and I already have too many sugar plums dancing around in my tummy.
LID 12/20/05 . . .Hoping
December 11th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
ljsatx - I hope you actually mean 30 days
December 11th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Sorry part of my post didn’t show up- it should read I hope you actually mean less than 30 days not greater than 30 days
December 11th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Something is weird on here today now ljsatx’s post looks differnt than before
December 11th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
In 2006, referrals arrived on Wednesday, January 2nd. In 2007, they arrived Wednesday, January 3rd. I think we can safely assume that those packages were mailed out either the weekend before or late in the previous week. Because Jan 1st of 2008 falls on a Tuesday, Wednesday might be too good to be true so I’ll take a stab at an optimistic guess that the CCAA will continue to send this batch out before our New Year holiday and that referrals will arrive Thursday, Jan 3rd. I hope it’ll be Wednesday, the 2nd, but I think it’ll happen during that week. Just my 2 cents. With the horrible weather across the US, hope everyone’s doing okay.
December 11th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
I have been saying Jan. 8th… to myself.. that way if they are way early then,, Woo Hooo!!! but if it goes a day or 2 past I think I can survive that,, after all we all ahve been waiting 2 years ….
Hang on December… I think this is going to be a very bumpy ride….
LID 12/19/05
Anti-spam word~~ China…. Does that mean we really get to go??? ;)
December 11th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
This is definitely the most exciting time that I have had during this wait! Thank you so much for this post, RQ! I really hope that rumors start flying early this month… I just cannot wait until the next batch comes out.
LID 12-20-05
Hopefully NEXT! (And with an anti-spam word like Beijing- I am ready to go!!!)
December 12th, 2007 at 12:29 am
It feels so good to finally know that we’ll be seeing our daughter’s picture in just a few weeks. This whole process has taken so long and now that this part of the journey is about to end feels incredibly good.
For all of you out there waiting, even the darkest days pass. Good luck to all.
LID 12-19-05
NEXT!!!
(my anti-spam word is bottles, can’t wait)
December 12th, 2007 at 4:40 am
I’m confused. what does Xmas have to do with when referrals come in. China doesn’t celebrate Xmas. I have been hearing they will want to the get matching done by the end of the year although pics may not come until the first week of Jan or so…
December 12th, 2007 at 4:42 am
Oh, it just occured to me you might mean that the mail is here is effected by X-mas.