Preliminary Poll Results
If you have not yet voted your LID in the new poll yet, and if your LID falls between December 15, 2005 and February 12, 2006 (inclusive) then please click here and vote your LID.
Here’s how things are looking now:
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Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege. 27 Responses to “Preliminary Poll Results”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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December 16th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Thanks RQ…it looks like December was a little bigger than we thought..however, the good news is that in general I see a decrease in numbers in mid Jan-Feb…which is really good.
December 16th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
Yep…these numbers do look bigger….
sigh….
December 16th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
To me, the (large) size of January was the big surprise. Yikes.
Also curious: February 12, which was a Sunday, has 12 votes. That’s alot for a Sunday!
December 16th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Is it possible they were working Sunday to make up for time off for Chinese New Year that year?
December 16th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Wow, the 20th is huge! I guess we can probably estimate where the next cutoff is going to be… sigh
Wendy
LID 12/27/05
http://adoptionandfire.typepad.com
December 16th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
Holy Cow! January has close to 400 LIDs so far. My agency keeps saying January and February are SMALL months. That ain’t small!!! Is that smoke I’m smelling from beneath my back side?
December 16th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
amycate..YUP..that would be a CNY effect I think…
and I am not thrilled with these numbers…its seems that what RQ was saying the drop in LIDs probably is not going to happen until after March 06 LID are done..by April-June 06there were stronger signals that the wait time was going to go up. I know by May-June 06, my agency was telling me the wait would go to 12-15 months (I thought it would peak there based on previous history) and by August 06…RQ was talking about the 18-24 months..so I think LID numbers probably started decreasing in the April-July period, and then levelled off…but then again what do I know? I am just speculating..I had hoped that Dec-Feb would be smaller than November..but it looks like by only a little (esp Jan).
December 16th, 2007 at 2:47 pm
Yikes! With these numbers I can’t see them getting further than December 19 with the next batch. I don’t like thinking that way, but I want to be realistic too.
Vanessa
December 16th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Holy Smokes! January 08 looks at lot bigger than I thought. Bummer!
December 16th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
Theses numbers are so much more in comparison to the last poll that it scares me what if the 23rd is not in next time either.
December 16th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
Yikes! I just hope RQ has captured a greater percentage of PAPs for this poll vs. the earlier polls to explain these numbers. The 7 day referral batches are starting to look like a good case scenario.
December 16th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
Some of the Sundays might make sense but I don’t understand how there are LID’s during CNY of 2006 - Jan. 30th through Feb. 3rd.
Anyone?
December 16th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
At this rate we’ll get to 7 Feb 2006 in June 2008! And that’s only if the quota doesn’t keep reducing. There’s no way the CCAA can meet their promise of 15 days worth of LID allocations each month with these numbers.
There’s at least 70+ months til we may get through May 2007, & that’s assuming we’ll only do 4 weeks per LID month. There’s bound to be quite a few that take a lot more.
December 16th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
mom222b: Perhaps some people voted that are actually logged in in 2007 instead of 2006 before RQ put the reminder up. Maybe they were so excited to vote for something….just a thought.
December 16th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
My predictions:
Jan.: inc. Dec. 26th 2005
Feb.: inc. Jan. 10th 2006
Mar.: inc. Jan. 22nd 2006
Apr.: inc. Feb. 5th 2006
December 16th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
At these huge numbers we probably wont get to February 2006 until June 2008. There’s no way CCAA can fulfill their aim to get 1/2 month of LID referrals each calender month from next year unless they double their quota. The system is totally flooded with applications. It will take 70 months + at this rate (assuming no furthjer slowdown as has been alluded to numerous times)to get through May 2007 dossiers.
December 16th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
I can’t believe how large January is………
December 16th, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Some people likely vote in error in every poll (hopefully it all balances out in the end). Remember these are preliminary, RQ will “clean it up” at the end and occasionally this will change how the poll looks a little, sometimes days turn out smaller than they look initially. I also am hoping that we’re capturing more people in the polls and that might make the numbers look higher, but the distribution should still be statistically useful. We can’t make any guesses off this poll, until the next batch of referrals come…..anytime would be OK with me on that front.
December 16th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
I share everyone’s surprise over the number of LIDs in Dec and Jan after we’d been led to believe that the CCAA’s load would be lighter after completing Nov. I am somewhat encouraged by the low #s between Dec 21 and Jan 4 though!!
Seems like we might have some hope for a referral in April (which would be nice since I’ve started telling everyone that I expect June)
December 16th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Oh, sorry, should have said my LID (I forget that my forum signature doesn’t show on the blog). Our LID is 1/16.
December 16th, 2007 at 8:35 pm
Happy 23 months of waiting norasmommy!! (I’m LID 1-16-06 too!) Am I correct is saying that as of yesterday, those logged in on 12-15-05 have hit the 2 year mark and thus the longest wait so far?
I like Aggies predictions….March referral would be great!
December 16th, 2007 at 8:57 pm
Oh yeah - March would be even better! I think I’m gonna keep telling people June though, just in case. I’m tired of being made a liar!
Happy LID-iversary to you too sllflorida :) I think you’re correct about Jan referrals to be the first to hit the 24 month mark.
December 16th, 2007 at 9:52 pm
Aggie- Those are some optimistic numbers! Why do you think they will get that far? I would be excited if they do, however my prediction is the 20th, especially now that I see how many are logged in on that day.
Wendy
LID 12/27/05
December 16th, 2007 at 10:43 pm
UGHH
December 17th, 2007 at 12:56 am
Oh well, guess I am just used to being disappointed at this point. Lid 1/12/06
December 17th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
RQ,
I know you’re busy with the holidays right now, but I was wondering, after the current poll closes if we could do another LID month poll.
The last LID month poll was completed June 5, 2007.
Do you think a new one would be helpful in getting an updated picture of atrition or if there might be more Dec 2005, Jan and Feb 2006 people on the list now that we are through Nov. 2005?
Sorry I missed it, if you have already addressed why this would or would not be possible or helpful. I haven’t been reading as closely lately as I get upset very easily, any more.
LID May 10, 2006
December 17th, 2007 at 4:04 pm
I am not sure if I am understanding RQ’s projections so please feel free to correct me if I am wrong. I understood her Projections charts to show she took 2 sometimes 3 poll dates for the lids in the past to show how many referrals were released for a particular time period. I took the last 5 months and averaged them out and came up with an average of 99 referrals per month released up to the last release. Using that as my base and looking at the poll now I am going to make some predictions of my own:
Jan: 12/20 111 refs
Feb: 12/29 107 refs
Mar: 1/9 113 refs
April: 1/15 116 refs
May: 1/25 107 refs
June: 2/7 100 refs
July: 2/12 and beyond
This is assuming I read the past polls correctly. I would love to believe Aggies numbers are correct and I am hoping something I am looking at is wrong such as voting for the wrong year.
LID 2/6/06