Comments on: Preliminary Poll Results http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/ Join the Rumor Queen as she looks for the latest rumors and then analyzes them, trying to figure out what the CCAA will do next. Fri, 09 Jan 2009 15:13:50 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: WelcomehomeKelly http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47374 WelcomehomeKelly Mon, 17 Dec 2007 20:04:40 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47374 I am not sure if I am understanding RQ's projections so please feel free to correct me if I am wrong. I understood her Projections charts to show she took 2 sometimes 3 poll dates for the lids in the past to show how many referrals were released for a particular time period. I took the last 5 months and averaged them out and came up with an average of 99 referrals per month released up to the last release. Using that as my base and looking at the poll now I am going to make some predictions of my own: Jan: 12/20 111 refs Feb: 12/29 107 refs Mar: 1/9 113 refs April: 1/15 116 refs May: 1/25 107 refs June: 2/7 100 refs July: 2/12 and beyond This is assuming I read the past polls correctly. I would love to believe Aggies numbers are correct and I am hoping something I am looking at is wrong such as voting for the wrong year. LID 2/6/06 I am not sure if I am understanding RQ’s projections so please feel free to correct me if I am wrong. I understood her Projections charts to show she took 2 sometimes 3 poll dates for the lids in the past to show how many referrals were released for a particular time period. I took the last 5 months and averaged them out and came up with an average of 99 referrals per month released up to the last release. Using that as my base and looking at the poll now I am going to make some predictions of my own:
Jan: 12/20 111 refs
Feb: 12/29 107 refs
Mar: 1/9 113 refs
April: 1/15 116 refs
May: 1/25 107 refs
June: 2/7 100 refs
July: 2/12 and beyond

This is assuming I read the past polls correctly. I would love to believe Aggies numbers are correct and I am hoping something I am looking at is wrong such as voting for the wrong year.

LID 2/6/06

]]> By: waiting4Ash http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47362 waiting4Ash Mon, 17 Dec 2007 17:15:55 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47362 RQ, I know you're busy with the holidays right now, but I was wondering, after the current poll closes if we could do another LID month poll. The last LID month poll was completed June 5, 2007. Do you think a new one would be helpful in getting an updated picture of atrition or if there might be more Dec 2005, Jan and Feb 2006 people on the list now that we are through Nov. 2005? Sorry I missed it, if you have already addressed why this would or would not be possible or helpful. I haven't been reading as closely lately as I get upset very easily, any more. LID May 10, 2006 RQ,
I know you’re busy with the holidays right now, but I was wondering, after the current poll closes if we could do another LID month poll.

The last LID month poll was completed June 5, 2007.

Do you think a new one would be helpful in getting an updated picture of atrition or if there might be more Dec 2005, Jan and Feb 2006 people on the list now that we are through Nov. 2005?

Sorry I missed it, if you have already addressed why this would or would not be possible or helpful. I haven’t been reading as closely lately as I get upset very easily, any more.

LID May 10, 2006

]]> By: mtonkinson http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47342 mtonkinson Mon, 17 Dec 2007 04:56:13 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47342 Oh well, guess I am just used to being disappointed at this point. Lid 1/12/06 Oh well, guess I am just used to being disappointed at this point. Lid 1/12/06

]]> By: Angeleyes_72 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47341 Angeleyes_72 Mon, 17 Dec 2007 02:43:09 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47341 UGHH UGHH

]]> By: firewens http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47340 firewens Mon, 17 Dec 2007 01:52:53 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47340 Aggie- Those are some optimistic numbers! Why do you think they will get that far? I would be excited if they do, however my prediction is the 20th, especially now that I see how many are logged in on that day. Wendy LID 12/27/05 Aggie- Those are some optimistic numbers! Why do you think they will get that far? I would be excited if they do, however my prediction is the 20th, especially now that I see how many are logged in on that day.

Wendy
LID 12/27/05

]]> By: norasmommy http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47337 norasmommy Mon, 17 Dec 2007 00:57:53 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47337 Oh yeah - March would be even better! I think I'm gonna keep telling people June though, just in case. I'm tired of being made a liar! Happy LID-iversary to you too sllflorida :) I think you're correct about Jan referrals to be the first to hit the 24 month mark. Oh yeah - March would be even better! I think I’m gonna keep telling people June though, just in case. I’m tired of being made a liar!

Happy LID-iversary to you too sllflorida :) I think you’re correct about Jan referrals to be the first to hit the 24 month mark.

]]> By: sllflorida http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47336 sllflorida Mon, 17 Dec 2007 00:35:43 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47336 Happy 23 months of waiting norasmommy!! (I'm LID 1-16-06 too!) Am I correct is saying that as of yesterday, those logged in on 12-15-05 have hit the 2 year mark and thus the longest wait so far? I like Aggies predictions....March referral would be great! Happy 23 months of waiting norasmommy!! (I’m LID 1-16-06 too!) Am I correct is saying that as of yesterday, those logged in on 12-15-05 have hit the 2 year mark and thus the longest wait so far?

I like Aggies predictions….March referral would be great!

]]> By: norasmommy http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47335 norasmommy Mon, 17 Dec 2007 00:11:22 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47335 Oh, sorry, should have said my LID (I forget that my forum signature doesn't show on the blog). Our LID is 1/16. Oh, sorry, should have said my LID (I forget that my forum signature doesn’t show on the blog). Our LID is 1/16.

]]> By: norasmommy http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47334 norasmommy Mon, 17 Dec 2007 00:10:13 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47334 I share everyone's surprise over the number of LIDs in Dec and Jan after we'd been led to believe that the CCAA's load would be lighter after completing Nov. I am somewhat encouraged by the low #s between Dec 21 and Jan 4 though!! Seems like we might have some hope for a referral in April (which would be nice since I've started telling everyone that I expect June) I share everyone’s surprise over the number of LIDs in Dec and Jan after we’d been led to believe that the CCAA’s load would be lighter after completing Nov. I am somewhat encouraged by the low #s between Dec 21 and Jan 4 though!!

Seems like we might have some hope for a referral in April (which would be nice since I’ve started telling everyone that I expect June)

]]> By: Pam http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47333 Pam Sun, 16 Dec 2007 22:51:04 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/12/16/preliminary-poll-results-5/#comment-47333 Some people likely vote in error in every poll (hopefully it all balances out in the end). Remember these are preliminary, RQ will "clean it up" at the end and occasionally this will change how the poll looks a little, sometimes days turn out smaller than they look initially. I also am hoping that we're capturing more people in the polls and that might make the numbers look higher, but the distribution should still be statistically useful. We can't make any guesses off this poll, until the next batch of referrals come.....anytime would be OK with me on that front. Some people likely vote in error in every poll (hopefully it all balances out in the end). Remember these are preliminary, RQ will “clean it up” at the end and occasionally this will change how the poll looks a little, sometimes days turn out smaller than they look initially. I also am hoping that we’re capturing more people in the polls and that might make the numbers look higher, but the distribution should still be statistically useful. We can’t make any guesses off this poll, until the next batch of referrals come…..anytime would be OK with me on that front.

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