Comparing and Analyzing Numbers
Yesterday was about sharing hard numbers. Today is about figuring out what other information I can gain from those numbers. I had one more piece of data that I should have shared yesterday as a hard number: In 2005 around 1200 special needs kids were adopted (100 per month). That should have been in yesterday’s post, as it was included with the 2006 information I have.
And now, onto the math. First, let’s look at what we know:
State Department numbers:
2005 7,906 (per month, 658)
2006 6,493 (per month, 541)
2007 5,453 (per month, 454)
CCAA Numbers:
2006 (Jan - Aug) 6,690 (per month, 836 : per year, appx 10,035)
2007 8,600 (per month, 716)
I’m going to use the “per month” numbers for comparison since we don’t have the total numbers for 2006. That per month total is likely off a little bit without the final four months, but it’s the best we have.
Let’s look at percentage of US numbers to worldwide numbers:
2006: 541 / 836 = 64.7%
2007: 454 / 716 = 63.4%
If we then use those numbers to extrapolate what the CCAA total numbers must have been for 2005, then 7,906 / .64 = 12,353 adoptions total in 2005, or 1,029 per month. To look at the special needs side of things, we know 100 of those per month were a special needs adoption. Less than 10% of the total.
From this, we can come to the following conclusions:
Total CCAA Numbers (shown per month : per year)
2005 1029 : 12,353
2006 836 : 10,035
2007 716 : 8,600
Special Needs CCAA Numbers (shown per month : per year)
2005 100 : 1,200
2006 174 : 2,088
2007 200 : 2,400
Non-Special Needs CCAA Numbers (shown per month : per year)
2005 929 : 11,153
2006 662 : 7,944
2007 516 : 6,200
How accurate are these numbers?
The 2005 CCAA numbers are extrapolations, though they jive close enough with what we’ve heard in the rumor mill for a long time (around 13,000 total worldwide adoptions in 2005). The special needs figure of 1200 total in 2005 is a hard (rounded) number that I’m sure of, it should have been in yesterdays numbers but was omitted.
The 2006 CCAA yearly numbers are projections based on the first 8 months of the year. Without data for the final four months we are likely not exactly right for the year, but should be in the right ballpark.
The 2007 CCAA numbers are not “to the exact number” correct, but are round figures designed to give us a rough idea of the actual numbers. Which means that each yearly number is “give or take 50″, since they rounded to the nearest hundred. And that means that each monthly number is “give or take 4″ since 50/12 is 4.16.
In other words, I believe that all of the numbers should be very close to the actual numbers.
January 16th, 2008 at 11:06 am
We’ve been tossing around “10,000″ as the quota or cap on IA from China, including both SN and NSN, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. In 2005, it was more than that, about that level in 2006, and less in 2007. I now I really do wish their “limit” was 10,000 children placed per year, since that would mean more babies finding families.
All that these numbers seem to confirm to me is that China is placing fewer children each year for IA. It unfortunately doesn’t answer the question of “why.” Is it truly because fewer children are abandoned? That many more couples in China are choosing DA? Or is it all artificially contrived for some kind of political PR (olympic or otherwise)? I can only assume from this data that the numbers will continue to gradually drop each year, and unless attrition is very high, the wait will continue to grow.
January 16th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Interesting that NSN has declined almost in half (I’m sure someone will point out it’s not half, but something just less than that), while SN has doubled. I know RQ has stated these numbers are “ball-park” and we must understand that, but still we can look at them and understand the trend that is here.
The backlog of NSN is simply getting larger and larger. Currently, it does not appear that the priority of the CCAA is to pro-actively reduce it anytime soon.
Very sad.
Weedji
LID 11/14/06
January 16th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Hi all
Our LID is feb 9th 2006
Will we have to wait to travel in 2009 or 2008
I know this is impossible to answer but if it was this year great
We are between two minds wheither to wait or apply to Vietnam Any ideas…
Ger
Ireland
January 16th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Thank you so much RQ for putting all the numbers (as good as we can get them with the info given to us) in one place like they should be.
I think this is what every person in the China adoption program, and contemplating the China adoption program should have to see.
This is amazing. And it spells out the fate of so many little children, both good and bad.
In theory, we could crunk the rate of decline in all these numbers and agree to assume a consistant rate would continue, and see where it lands us….
Thank you.
January 16th, 2008 at 11:16 am
This post should be required reading anyone who wants to get on the roller coaster or has a 2007 LID.
Numbers don’t lie and the program is still viable for NSN children. But - if their are 25,000 people in line in front of you……….. ?
January 16th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Huh. The numbers sort of look different to me than yesterday, thanks RQ for the analysis. I think the CCAA’s number sounded big because I was thinking of the State Dept. numbers as a comparison, which is obviously not an accurate comparison. It helps to look at previous years for trends. I know the numbers will likely never be as high as they were in 2005, but I’m still hopeful things will pick up in 2008 and/or 2009.
January 16th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Interesting that NSN has declined by almost half while SN has doubled.
The trend is down.
Will it level out ?????
If so, WHEN ?????
January 16th, 2008 at 11:22 am
So they are taking longer to process fewer…
Per Month per day
2005 1029 52
2006 836 42
2007 716 36
The Per Day is based on a 20 Day work month.
Now to find out the backlog #s of who’s in the list. (-;
From from your chart on the referral dates/Waits, I had to Extract more data to get my LID on the list. Then I added an Age @ referral column. No matter whoch I chose, 5, or 15, I was still way older than I had hoped I would be…
January 16th, 2008 at 11:39 am
RQ - Have you (or anyone) figured out how far ahead matching is currently? I know it used to be right before referral, but I remember hearing some talk a while ago that they might be matching ahead an holding onto them for a while…do you think this is true?
January 16th, 2008 at 11:41 am
RQ: I think you have a typo on the percentage of SN adoptions. You say it’s less than 1%–I think you mean 10%.
Thanks for the number crunching.
klem
January 16th, 2008 at 11:43 am
RQ,
SN was just under 10% in 2005, not 1%. I know that was probably a typo, but someone is likely to see that and the 28% for 2007 and think that SN has gone up by a factor of 28 instead of almost 3. I think it’s still a telling number, and one that will probably continue to increase.
January 16th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Hi:
First of all, sorry for my bad english, i am from Spain and my english is not the best (i know).
I will send you a link to an interesting web with some statistics (the blog is from a swedish girl and it’s in spanish, if you don’t understand it very well, don’t doubt in asking me, please).
I hope it could help you…
(oh, thanks for the site)
Hector
January 16th, 2008 at 11:54 am
I appreciate the numbers…Weir…we will be traveling soon with a LID of 12/23/05, but I can relate to the frustration. We thought we would be traveling in 2007, but that didn’t happen. I think for me, that remembering why we chose China, and considering that “our daughter” wasn’t ready for us yet, that really helped. We thought about dropping and going through Korea, but it felt like abandoning “our daughter” in China. Give it some thought and good luck!
January 16th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
I was playing with the chinaadoptionforecast.com referral calculator and noticed that after I entered my LID, it prefaced my prediction with the following statement. I’d just like to add that I’m SORRY FOR ME too.
“…many people have this idea that somehow, magically, China will start tomorrow doing huge, incredible numbers of referrals, because this allows them to project a wait time that doesn’t seem so long. WE’RE SORRY FOR YOU. We really are. But China is not going to suddenly speed up.”
January 16th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
I know that thsi may sound strange, but I am actually encouraged to see how many NSN referrals they are averaging each month. It doesn’t look as bleak as I thought. I’m actually thinging that some smaller LID months may go quickly.
January 16th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
I believe the reason for less children explains itself. Economics. China is in an economic boom, thats where all the American companies are going to exploit cheap labor. More people can afford the tax to keep more than one child. So it is a two sided coin. Its great news for the children not to be abandoned and raised by there own loving families. So there can not be any sadness for them only for the children languishing in orphanages that dont have to be. I may be getting older and grayer during this wait but all children are worth it. Thanks for the numbers and all the work you do.
January 16th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Th etax , or penalty has been changed to an amount that is quiet a bit more than it was last year, and there is a crack down on that too. There was just a news story of about 50 party members being kicked out and losing all teh state benifets for flaunting the one child rule. But Economics and changing family values on boy vs. girl are starting to change. Plus last year was a very good year to have a baby acording to custom. There was supposed to be a record amount of births for the “Year of the Golden pig” the flip side is those that wanted a boy, there has been an upsurge of couples using fertility drugs to have twins or more, increasing the odds of a boy. The other half of that twins or more are considered one birth so it’s ok to keep them all without penalty.
January 16th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
It was actually 500 party members! It sounds like they are cracking down on the one child policy again, which I would imagine would lead to more abandonments.
January 16th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Thanks You’re right. I remember one guy had kids with four of his Mistress’.
January 16th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
mtonkinson-
Sadly, I think there are still a lot of babies growing up with homes. If that was not the case, none of us could decry the slowing process in China. But there are lots of kiddos who will never get homes…
And there are other ways to penalize the people who evade the one child policy, like some mentioned above…
I also think that if these kids fall outside the policy (i.e. their parents broke the rules in having them), I’ve heard something like these kids don’t get certain things like medical care, schooling etc for free…I don’t know if that’s in certain areas of China, or all areas…
January 16th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Weir/Ger in Ireland, it’s just a guess but I’m thinking Fall of this year. I really don’t know the ins and outs of doing a concurrent IA but if you need to wait a year between the two referrals, and given that Vietnam’s wait times are going up, then you just may get a Vietnam referral over a year after your China referral. It’s really hard to make such an important decision based on a guess. But I think that if you get into the idea of receiving a VN referral after rather than before a China referral, it could work. Did that makes sense?
January 16th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
RQ, do you think that we can make projections with these numbers and the polls you have made in the past ?
I have tried to do something simple before you put your hard numbers and I arrived with LIDs of June 2006 in December 2008 and for March 2007 Lids, around June 2010. But I am not that good in Maths…
January 16th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
strawberry- my understanding is that when a child is born they need to be registered. then they will receive health care and will be able to go to school. if the parents are over-quota and just never register the child or if they “give” the child to a family member or someone else that person may not register the child either. there are probably many children that will have issues later on when they need health care, social security, etc.
January 16th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
I have aquaintances that started with China for their 2nd adoption. They switched to VN about a year ago, they have not gotten a referral yet and are really regretting their decision to switch programs. VN is seeming to be pretty unpredictable. I would love to hear what others think.
January 16th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Something else to consider:
With more economic prosperity comes more education, more awareness of and access to birth control, etc., etc. As we know, birthrates are lower in more developed and wealthier countries–just look at Europe. Someone suggested that perhaps the people of China are now better able to afford to keep their second babies and pay the fine. I’d like to think that economic growth is reducing the number of unplanned pregnancies AND creating a more modern and enlightened culture that values first-born daughters enough to keep them and forego trying for a son. That would be a logical and happy reason for abandonments to be down…
January 16th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Also, economic prosperity = more domestic adoptions.
January 16th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Help, I should be posting this in travel tips but I don’t know how to post there! I have an appointment in the morning for vaccines for my husband and me. The health department here says we need Typhoid and Hepetitis A & B. Do we really need these?? We do not have time for the series just for one set(waited to long)Did anyone else get these shots? did anyone skip these shots? The Typhoid can make you sick for a few days and I leave in 8 days for China and I still have to much to do to be laid up for a few days ! Help, any advise appreciated. Sorry this is not in the right place. LID 12-9-05
January 16th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Lumina, I would take them and when you get back from China I would have at least the other shot for Hepetitis. The best is to have 3 shots so you would be immuned for life. Vaccines are very important don’t miss them.
January 16th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
I have had the Hepetitis A & B and felt fine after. The Typhoid I had 15 years ago for a trip to Thailand and it did make me sick for one day.
I hope this helps.
January 16th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
I have aquaintances that started with China for their 2nd adoption. They switched to VN about a year ago, they have not gotten a referral yet and are really regretting their decision to switch programs. VN is seeming to be pretty unpredictable. I would love to hear what others think.
Sorry if this posts twice, I posted it about 2 hours ago and it never showed up.
January 16th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hi RQ and group -
I hope this question hasn’t already been asked. What do you think these numbers mean for the wait? The CCAA now has a backlog of 24+ months of waiting families. An earlier post on the blog pointed to large numbers of families pulling their files. What are your thoughts about what will happen in 2008 and 2009 re: referrals and the waiting game? Maybe you could do a “part three” to your number-crunching posts! :>)
Thanks!
CM07
LID 2/17/06
January 16th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
I think If China’s economic expansion continues unabated for the next several years, the NSN program will be squeezed down to the point of being effectively nonexistant, but if there is a significant correction(s) in 2008 and/or 2009, as some economist and pundits speculate, there is hope for a speed up in NSN referrals.
January 17th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Lumina - Talk to your health dept - I’ve heard that for short-term immunization, that in some cases immunoglobulin (I’m sure I didn’t spell that right), is better than getting just part of a course of shots…might be an option for you.
Hep A especially is rampant in so much of the world and easily transmitted, so to me that’s the most important if you can’t do the other option above…depending on where you are going, I don’t personally think you’d need typhoid this time of year, unless you will be in the most Southern most reaches of China, and even still, I don’t think I’d worry about it. Personally, Hep B being a one time (well 3 time) and then good forever, I figure it’s worth it.
Just my 2 cents.
January 17th, 2008 at 5:14 am
Thank you so much for that bit of info skye
We really want to wait for our baby and are hoping it will be this year so We dont have to change our paperwork
When is your LID
It is really frustrating the wait but if you look at all that is behind me I should really be gratefull
Many Thanks
Ger Ireland
January 17th, 2008 at 6:54 am
With my 52nd birthday looming and a LID of sept 2006 I am not feeling too hopeful right now. We do not have any children and have nowhere else to go. I know that many of are in similar or worse situations.If this adoption does not happen for us it will be bad but not as bad as it will be for the children who spend all of their lives in an institution. If it did not happen because there was no need I could walk away and accept.I have a friend who has access to one of the orphanages not involved in any adoption schemes. The children vary in age from a few weeks to toddlers some apparently totally healthy or with mild facial disfigurement, there is another building close by that she is not allowed access to. Please if there is anyone reading this email who has any authority in China can these orphanages be identified and I am sure some of us would be willing to help the process to be implemented I am sure that hopefully this is already in your plans . Does anyone have any idea how many of these orphanages exist that are not involved in I.A.? The big picture here is let these children be in a family not an institution. If this adoption does not happen for me I have to know that I played some small part in making it happen for these children
January 17th, 2008 at 7:43 am
I’m Righ behind you and in the same boat, lid of march 07 and turning 51 soon too. Not nice. Be intrested to hear about the orphanage questione. Know somone who knows some one who has financed an orphanage there but it still has to go thru the CCAA I guess. Lumina Check the CDC site for info on your shots, I belive they have an 800 number too.
January 17th, 2008 at 9:59 am
LUMINA
When we went to China the first time we got all the shots even though some of the parts had to be completed after our return. No side effects. Turned out we were never in any areas where we thought we could have been exposed to something, still, considering the cost of the vaccines and the HUGE benefit they provide should you be exposed to something I think they are good insurance. Plus since we had them (2004) we seem to have had the best health ever!
Drew
LID 4-06-06
January 17th, 2008 at 11:10 am
With a LID of 2/28/06, we started our concurrent Vietnam adoption a year ago June. We were pessimistic and worried that our China adoption could end up taking three years, so we were confident that we would bring our son home from Vietnam and easily make the one year of wait between children.
After over a year and half we are still waiting for a Vietnam referral and now expect to bring home our daughter from China first. I hate to think our Vietnam adoption might not ever happen, but I worry about that more than I do about China these days.
If you want more information about issues in Vietnam adoption, I highly recommend the website: http://www.adoptionintegrity.com.
The short answer is: Going to Vietnam is no longer the easy answer it was for some people last year. It certainly wasn’t for us, especially after we pulled out of an agency that we had ethical concerns about. That agency now has parents stuck in Vietnam unable to bring their children home.
January 17th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I’m looking into these time schedules and all of the on-line analysis and am quite discouraged! We’re looking into a 2nd adoption (DS was born in Guatemala in ‘04) and it doesn’t look like we’d be able to bring home a child from China within the next 5 years!
January 17th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Like every other AP, I love my two children more than anything else on this Earth. But when my oldest cries herself to sleep at night because she doesn’t know what her mother looks like or if she has other brothers or sisters or grandparents, then I wish with all my heart that she had never been placed for adoption.
All of the joy I receive from parenting these 2 extraordinary girls and the material benefits they enjoy from living in a developed country do not outweigh the heartbreak of being forever separated from their birth family and culture that they will feel for the rest of their lives.
If even a fraction of the slowdown can be attributed to the booming economy, more domestic adoptions and fewer relinquishments, then I say let the economy soar.
We all want orphan children to be placed in forever families as quickly as possible, but wouldn’t it be better if those children never became orphans in the first place?
January 18th, 2008 at 1:25 am
catlin, does this happen often?! Gosh, I hope not…can’t be healthy if it is happening a lot. The fact that it makes you wish you didn’t need to adopt them is very sad.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:01 am
General question - is Catlin’s experience common (hope not) and at what age range might such grieving feelings start to occur?
If others have had similar experiences with their (older) adopted children from other countries, could you share them in a forum thread? Or perhaps RQ has archives on this out there - will check. Thanks.
3/14/06
January 18th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
While it is important to allow children to grieve their losses…it is equally important as parents to not let it get out of hand.
No, it is not normal for it to go on regularly, over a long period of time. If it does, it may be time for professional intervention.
January 18th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Thanks, p12. What Catlin described did not sound like the experience of all other adoptive parents I know.