Ratios, not numbers
Our polls are never going to involve the entire community. And, one poll might have 25% and another might have 32%, so we can’t really compare numbers to each other.
Instead we must look at ratios and percentages. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, lets put the last monthly poll on a graph with the most recent.
(Click Image for full size)
A couple of things to remember, the biggest being that the last poll was up for an entire month and the most recent hasn’t been up for very long yet. However, the totals are similar (3,637 for the last one and 3,335 for the most recent) so I thought we were close enough to graph them and get an idea of how close the two really are.
And I think they are pretty close.
For now, let’s not get hung up on “there were this many last time and this many this time”. Once this poll has been up a month I’ll look to see if there is anything I can gather from that, but right now it is just too soon.
On another note, if you haven’t checked out the Babies! post recently, you might want to. Lots of pictures now. Congrats again to all of the families who now have a very treasured picture to stare at until you can start making travel plans.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Thanks for this RQ…
February 8th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Very interesting, RQ. Many thanks as well. Could you possibly extend the poll back another year or two?
In trying to figure out whether to adopt a second daughter from China, it could be helpful to see the ratios of past poll respondents as a possible indicator of how long the wait may take.
For example, we were told that the # of dossiers submitted had spiked when the new rules were implemented, but from looking at your chart it doesn’t look like that spike did not reach previous heights.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
klotzian – I think you missed the whole point of this post. You can’t compare numbers. The previous poll is from 9 months ago. If we look at one from two years ago, all we’d still be able to do would be to look at ratios, not numbers. We have a bigger percentage of the total coming to the polls now, so you just can’t compare numbers.
If you want to see hard numbers, this post and this post is the closest I’ve got to them.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
very, very interesting thank you! the thing that’s so surprising to me is that the graph has stayed so consistent between the two polls. those that have found RQ seem to stay no matter how long the wait stretches out. it also confirms a little of what I’ve been thinking –when the red line (new poll) drops below the blue line (old poll) is where it seems that maybe there has been/could be more attrition. attrition would be a good reason for people to no longer be voting. It has appeared for some time that the majority of attrition (and concurrents) has been in the 7/06-11/06 lid groups.
I think a lot of these families got into the process believing wait times would not exceed 12 mos or so and were quickly educated to the new normal that china IA has become.
Those who were lid early 06 seemed to always be more on the edge, not sure whether there would be enough time to complete a concurrent (as it has always seemed we were 8-10 mos away from referral) and emotionally and financially too invested to just give up on china.
Those who were lid late 2006 and into 2007 went in with their eyes a little more open to the wait times so more committed to the china program exclusively and/or pursuing other options including WC lists as they wait.
RQ, thanks again!
susan lid 2/13/06 (in the always “8-10 mos away from referral” camp)
February 8th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Hmmm Eyes open , when we started the process , paperchasing we were told 12-15 Got th epapers all in by end of Dec 06 agency then waited to get another dossier or two togeather and sent out in Jan. Got Logged into CCAA in March 07 wish we had pushed for them to or offered to pay for the Fed ex in dec/early jan. Would have pushed us just a little earlier, and at this wait I’ll take what ever little I can. RQ any updates on how many are pulling out of the China program? Would love to see a graph on that!
February 8th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Thanks RQ!
February 8th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
ladeeequire, you say that “It has appeared for some time that the majority of attrition (and concurrents) has been in the 7/06-11/06 lid groups.” When I look at the graph, it seems to me that there is a wider gap between the polls for the months of 1/06-5/06 than there is later in the year. I was thinking this could possibly indicate some attrition in the early part of the 2006 LID year (or simply that people haven’t voted yet.) Does that seem to be a reasonable conclusion?
February 8th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
This is a re-post of sorts, as I originally posted this under the wrong entry from yesterday . . .
“On another note, an FYI for all of us – 20/20 is airing a segment tonite about a custody case connected to a Chinese adoption – it seemed very interesting. I’d not heard of the case previously, so it was something that caught my eye. Does anyone out there know more about it?”
Re: today’s post on ratios, etc. Our LID is 12/15/06. I don’t know that we went into it “with our eyes more open” as we had been hearing all along that the wait was about 18 months. However, I have to admit that our agency was never the one that told us that, it was coming more from others within our agency community and those who were in process already. I had no knowledge at that time of the wealth of information and calculations out there, and had never heard of RQ. (Gasp, I can hardly remember that ignorance :) )
Regardless we’ve taken the attitude that the wait is part of the process and really out of our control for the most part. Our motto has been that we are in it for the long haul, however long that is. Of course, we “know” way more now and we battle with the impatience way more now too. We did just recently begin the application process for the WC list, and hope to complete the app this weekend. Maybe that will shorten the wait, so our oldest son can actually KNOW his little sister before he heads off to college and starts his own life!
February 8th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
I’ve not voted in this poll, and I know I voted in the last one. We went SN, so no longer should I vote. RQ didn’t spell out “do not vote if you pulled your dossier or went SN” so I wonder if anyone did vote?
Doesn’t surprise me to see the new poll fall below the old poll numbers for late 06 LIDs.
February 8th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
wow– take a look at the poll. i knew they were big, but march ’06 and april ’07 are SCARY huge!
slubber (aka slb in forum)
February 8th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Klotzian:
If you want a rough estimate of how long it will take to get a referral if you were logged in today, look at:
a) most recent referral batch covered 8 days (Dec 19 to 27/05).
b) most recent referral batch came 32 days after the previous batch (Dec 31/07 to Feb 1/08).
c) 32 / 8 = 4 calendar days to refer one day of Log-ins.
d) current backlog: Dec 27/05 to Feb 8/08 = 773 calendar days.
e) 4 calendar days per Log-in day x 773 days of backlog = 3,092 days, or 8.5 years of backlog.
If they keep referring at the rate they rate they referred last month, someone logged in today would get a referral in 8 1/2 years. Maybe sooner if the number of applications has declined, or maybe longer if the rate of referrals continues to decrease, but the most recent info we have says 8 1/2 years.
Hope this helps.
February 8th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
I do wonder what the rate is of people dropping out or going SN is. This could affect the wait time. We’re in this for the long haul. I wish I could step back and ride the ride without so many questions and pondering, its just so hard not knowing. Whoever said “no news is good news”, if the CCAA could just let us know , really know, whats going on, it could be so much easier. My sister is in the process of dropping out and I’m devastated. Its very saddening. LID 12/06 (so close, yet so far)
February 8th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
RQ, Thank you for the visual! Hope you’re feeling better.
I wonder if our faithful RQ crowd would vote prior to changing programs if there was a place to do so? Probably wouldn’t even begin to give us a picture of the attrition rate….and I’m horrible with numbers so all you amazing mathematicians out there are probably shaking your heads at that suggestion….but I wonder….
February 8th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
To The Gang,
If the 20/20 segment is about the family I heard about previously, the participants have been fighting this case for several years. As I understand, and if I am remembering correctly, the birth parents where immigrants {not sure how long they planned to stay and they may have been here as students} who had a daughter and gave her up because they felt they could not adequately provide for her. The baby went into the system and eventually was foster cared for and then adopted. However, I believe the birth parents have maintained that they always intended to reclaim the child and that they never intended for her to be adopted. Does that help?
February 8th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
The case was in Tn and the father knew the couple who after awhile admitted that they were only providing temorary help to the family while the father , a college professor, I think tried to find work after losing his job, The helping coupl ebecame attached and the nirth father had some problems with the law solved them , notsure how, and tried to get his daughter back so he could return back to the china mainland. Then the couple did not want to give up the child and had finagled something with he local child services I think. The judge had ruled in the birth parents favaoe after two trials that went to the state courts. Problem is they had so americanised and brainwashed the child hat there was defintetlly going to be transistion problems. Have not followed since then.
February 9th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Thanks. I did catch some of the interview. Sounded to me like no matter what, that little girl was the one most hurt by the adults in her life and their choices. I hate that. That’s unfortunately the case in many of these custody battles, I know.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Looking at the poll numbers that are stacking up, I’m not only struck by the hugeness of March (which we all pretty much knew), but Jan. and Feb. don’t look all that small to me either! Wake me up after March is done…
February 9th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
The 20/20 show was heart-wrenching!!!! Another case of NOT focusing on the feelings and best interest of the CHILD!!!!!!!! Hmmmmmmmm, there seems to be a lot of those people in this world!
February 9th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
why do only about 1 out of 20 of my posts ever show up?
February 10th, 2008 at 9:53 am
…I’ve come to realize that it does not matter how many charts, graphs, grids etc…no matter which way you slice the orange…this is one big %#$&**(()% wait…..
February 10th, 2008 at 9:58 am
…I have come to realize that no matter how many graphs, lines or grids..you can only slice the orange in so many slices….this is one big *^%#%* wait…
With a LID of March 2006…I really do not know how one will sustain themsleves if they were logged in Feb 2008….truly one must evaluate the toll it takes on yourself and as a couple….I siad it before..we will remain till the end for our daughter……but will never do this again to my husband, self or family/friends…these last few years have been hell…
February 10th, 2008 at 9:59 am
..exactly…I’m finding the same thing…1/20 posts only show…
February 10th, 2008 at 9:59 am
..i have been trying to post and this is my 6th time..with no luck>>>
February 10th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Does anyone know the percent of people voting on the polls. I am trying to get an estimate of how many dossiers are in front of me and if there are 1,917 logged in before me on RQ’s polls how many intotal. Does RQ’s community represent 30% world wide?? Any educated guessess?
Thanks!
February 10th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Can anyone share why there was such a such a surge of applications in late 2005 and early 2006 and then it tapered off in April 06? Seems like the apps would have kept going at that same rate until a surge before the rule change in 2007. There must be a reason.
February 10th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I’m just curious – does anyone know why March 2006 had so many LID’s?
Maureen
February 11th, 2008 at 10:01 am
cscomo,
We were DTC on February 10 (two years ago yesterday!) and have a LID of March 8. It seemed to me like it was taking quite long to be logged in when we sent our dossier in. Then, it seemed like things really starting speeding up and people with DTC in March were being logged in days after their paperwork arrived in China. IMHO, I believe that is why February is smaller and March is larger.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:30 am
To those of you who have posts not showing up, I’ve found that either I forget to type the anti-spam word, or sometimes they just take awhile. They do always eventually show up, it’s just not always instantaneous. Sometimes it is, but not always. I’ve even noticed that sometimes mine won’t appear right away, but when they do finally appear they are in order on the page of the time I submitted them, so my post appears for the first time before posts that were already on the page that I already read. Weird!
February 11th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Okay, I have to interject some humor here about being “an older parent”…a topic many of us will be addressing with this loooooooonnggg wait.
This past week, my five-year-old was sick. First obstacle as an older parent…I had to keep the heat up in our house to keep her warm…REALLY hard to tolerate while having hot flashes! Second obstacle, the pharmacist printed out instructions for her meds, and I had to have her reprint it in larger printer…I can’t read fine print anymore! The third was actually working in my favor…I was up for much of the night tending to her. This was less of a problem now than when I was younger. I just don’t need as much sleep anymore :)
Thought some of you might get a kick out of this.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
Our dossier also took about 3 weeks to get logged in (compared with 2 days back in 2004) we were told our dossier went right after CNY so they were taking a while to work through the ones that were stacked up during the holiday.
Janie
3-7-06 lid
February 12th, 2008 at 12:26 am
Hi Janie
We’re LID February 06 and I’m told CCAA has processed LID’s through December 05 so we are closer. Waiting is difficult since I’ve been out of things to prepare since March 07.