Projections
I’m primarily using the newest poll now. I’ve moved my base numbers around in an effort to remain as close to the previous benchmarks as possible.
First, let’s look at the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch.
Next, to get an idea of how previous months have fared on the “Horrid/Bad/Mid/Good” scenarios, we have this next little graphic. It doesn’t go back farther because before June I was moving numbers around, in June I settled on some numbers to use and have used them consistently. As I said, I’ve tweaked those numbers so that the new poll should fall within the same benchmarks.
And finally, here are my projections:
And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
February 12th, 2008 at 10:24 am
I am confused by the projections table. Should December really be March?
February 12th, 2008 at 10:41 am
zhaonuer - thank you. Yes, fixed.
February 12th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Thank you RQ. Much appreciated. Nice to see all projections are for 2006 even the horrid cases. Yipeee!
February 12th, 2008 at 10:57 am
RQ,
Quick question. Your poll results show that the most recent referral batch had the biggest amount of people in it, I think somewhere around 184. Does this mean that there are just more families being drawn to your site closer to referral or does it mean that maybe the batch was bigger than normal?
Matt
February 12th, 2008 at 11:11 am
With an early March LID…..I’m starting to get REALLY REALLY excited!!
February 12th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Nice to see my own projections are very conservative compared to RQ’s. Here’s hoping for encouraging numbers in the next several months!
MattandHeather - I had the same thought. I wonder whether numbers are increasing because people are coming to the site. I’ve tried to compare with numbers on the same poll, so I think it takes a few months on each poll to really use it for predictions.
February 12th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Right, you cannot compare polls against each other.
It’s like taking a city map and a statewide map and trying to say that an inch on one is equal to an inch on the other. Doesn’t work that way.
February 12th, 2008 at 11:53 am
I’m just glad that we’re FINALLY in 2006 (no offense to the 2005 LID’ers)… ;)
February 12th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
With a March 23, ‘06 LID, I have to say these projections are more promising than I’ve been telling people. I’ll be ecstatic if we are even close to a referral by the end of 2008. Thanks RQ!
February 12th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
I’m feeling like we “possibly” squeak in 2008, with a LID 3/27/06- time will only tell!!!
February 12th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
I’ve bee thinking we may “squeak” in 2008 with a LId 3/27/06- only time will tell!!!
February 12th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
I can not believe I have made it to horrid case of next-next!!!
Now if the good case happened I would not only have a heart attack but am so not ready! I am starting to get excited in a guarded sort of way!
wfbs
LID 1/11/06!
February 12th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Seems optimistic to me. But what do I know?
February 12th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
RQ,
I’m just curious what history has shown for referrals around CNY holiday? It seems April/May seem to decrease greatly. Is the batch of referrals done in the month that contains the CNY holiday normally less or about the same as previous months?
Your ‘horrid’ case is more positive than I am so I’m going to hope you’re right!
LID 03/23/06 and still not convinced I’ll see a 2008 referral but sure hope I’m wrong!
February 12th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Even using the horrid case only (which is where I forced my eyes to stay…) we are still looking good/matching up with my April/May guesstimate.
And if it happens in March? well, I’d have some scrabbling to do (and new underwear to buy because I’d have messed mine! LOL) but it would be joyful.
Tracy
LID 1-12-06
http://dayadopt.blogsome.com
February 12th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
I have a LID of 1/16/06 and am so excited! Thanks Rumor Queen for helping us through this whole process!
February 12th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
LOL Tracy!
February 12th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
I hope they at least get through the bad case! I want the best case of course, but I will take the bad case! Come on January!!!
Wendy
http://adoptionandfire.typepad.com
February 12th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Oh wow! I’ve made it into the horrid case! I was so not expecting that!! We’re going to have to get our butts in gear!
Vanessa
LID 1/5/06
February 12th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
with my 24 january lid, i think for Horrid case and a july referral.
And for march i think 4 january cut off and 9 or 10 in april.
I can’t be optimistic, it’s too crual when it doesn’t happen…
Severine from France (what a beautiful antispam : baby !)
February 12th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Never has “horrid” felt so good… We’re not getting too excited just yet BUT we are allowing ourselves to privately whisper giddy thoughts of hope and joy.
peace
fm
February 12th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Come on 2006!
RQ, your numbers look very hopeful to me but I suppose I am still looking at LIDs rather than # of referrals sent. I’m prepared for the worst, which with a 2/17/06 LID would probably be late, late 2008/early 2009.
But I’ll gladly take earlier! :-)
(anti-spam word: formula … will I be buying it this year?)
February 12th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
OKAY RQ, just HAVE to ask you this question: :) :) :) :)
PLEASE JUST HUMOR ME AND GIVE ME YOUR BEST IDEA, PRETTY PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you were me, with an LID of Jan. 13th, would YOU expect a…
a. March referral (good case)
b. April referral (bad case)
c. May referral (horrid case)
I’m just asking if this were YOU, what would you prepare yourself for expecting?
We’ve only seen 2 horrid cases in recent months (they came in Dec.), so am I a fool to think WE WILL NOT HAVE THE HORRID CASE, and therefore could “safely” expect Mar. or April to be our month????
XIE XIE!!!!!!!!
February 12th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
rjk-
Anyway you look at it, YOU’RE GETTING YOUR BABY SOOOON!!
Enjoy every minute of this…it’s finally your turn.
Start getting things ready. March, April and May will ALL be here before you know it! There’s a little baby in China waiting very patiently for you to come get here. Enjoy.
LID Feb 07
February 12th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Bella’s mom:
Thanks! You have brought a smile to my face today! I just think I’m in shock after sooooooooooooooooo long.
Additionally, I did NOT expect RQ’s predictions to go so far!
Looks like you’re not far behind either :0)
February 12th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
waitingforbbsis:
I am with you - guardedly excited, but it has been months since I felt excited, so it feels good. Finally, we are getting there.
LK’s mom
LID 1/10/06
February 13th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Any big March poll predictions coming up? Will we be bigger than November? I know it’s too soon to tell but being an LID’er at the end of March I’m afraid to get my hopes up for 2008. I’ll take Spring of 09′ too. I’m just glad we are getting on the radar. I am feeling more positive about things these days. I’m even thinking of clearing the junk out of the baby’s room and painting finally. Oh yeah, and deciding on a name. I thought I would wait and spread out the fun, I just didn’t count on spreading out this long and this thinly!
Moonpie
3/21/08
February 13th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Wow! With these predictions are way more optimistic than I have been thinking. With an LID of Jan 24th (Hey Severine!!) I guess we better start on that Nursery. We’ve been holding off - kind of like Dessert before Dinner- but now it seems like it is time to get organized!!! Could it be after all this time of trying (sometimes succeeding) to keep emotions in check that it is finally time to Let Go!! Weeeeee! So exciting!!