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First RumorThis one is an R1. It’s a roundabout rumor of an agency telling someone that they don’t think they are in this batch. Based on the family’s LID, if the agency is correct then we’re down in the ballpark of the Horrid Case scenario. Is this an agency person who is guessing? Or have they heard something from the CCAA? I don’t know. I’m reporting it since it’s out there, but I’m reporting it as an R1.
Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege. 31 Responses to “First Rumor”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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February 22nd, 2008 at 8:49 am
RQ, I was going to post today, in a copy of our agency’s newsletter that I received from a friend who used the same agency, but in a different state, says they expect referrals for families with a LIDs of 1/4/06. They don’t say it is the cut off date, just that they expect them for those families.
Denise
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:09 am
Don’t they ususally do a pretty small batch right after Chinese New Year?
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:17 am
So what was this person’s LID?
Vanessa
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Seems to me (without going back and looking) that the batch right after CNY usually seems “normal” but the next batch is usually smaller.
This is about what I expected though, with the CCAA letting people go and the storms that wreaked havoc on China last month, and maybe a little effect from CNY.
I am hoping for better but this would not surprise me if it was correct.
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:52 am
mlb75,
That’s what I remember too.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:10 am
I would just be tickled silly if they actually made it to the “Horrid Case” as that would mark 9 days off the calendar.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
Not to question RQ, but how is January 5 a “Horrid Case”? That’s 7 days which, with the past few months, would seem like a “Mid Case” if not better. Just wondering.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:28 am
I keep telling myself this is just an R1, nothing of merit yet. I am so hoping to have a good month again.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:29 am
anna2me - the projections are based on the poll numbers, not on LID days. They do not log in the same number of people every day, there are small days and there are monster days and that can make a huge difference in how many days make it into a batch.
Also, don’t forget that the CCAA was off for a few days for New Years (yeah, they get off for both New Year holidays) so the nine days isn’t a “normal” nine days.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:31 am
waiting4kiera, I’m with you. We need another good month!
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:34 am
I have to say that I was a little nervous the CCAA would have the cut off be Dec. 31, 2005. I still remember 3 day batch that finished Nov. 05′ in October 07′…
So I guess 9 days is better than 3.
And I would just love to officially see that November 06′ is out of review.
Have a good weekend everyone.
Lisa
LID: 12.20.06
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:36 am
Thanks for the clarification RQ and for all you do with this site! I know you have your hands full, and we all appreciate the effort it takes to provide this life line! Thank you, thank you, THANK YOU!
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
I’m a 1/5/06 LID, so I really would love to know what the LID of the person who reported the rumor. Is it 1/5 or after? Or is it before?
Thanks so much RQ! You rock!
Vanessa
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Let’s Get Into 06′ Already!
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
P12, Oh I am so with you. Can’t wait to get into 2006.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:05 am
vanna1970….I am LID 1/4/06. I, too, would love to know the LID of the person reporting this. Is that information allowed to be shared?
Thanks RQ. I love seeing you report the rumors and keeping us grounded!
Marci
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:15 am
Yes. Please. Just an idea of before or after 1/5 would be sufficient. :)
Vanessa
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
I’m new and confused about what this chart means. What do the dates refer to?
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:48 am
kampfiii - the dates refer to RQ’s projections of LID referrals - the date CCAA will get through. She has broken them down to horrid case, bad, mid and good case.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
“so the nine days isn’t a “normal†nine days.”~RQ
I don’t know why but this just cracked me up - because let’s face it normal went out the window along time ago :)
I will be happy to say goodby to 05 as well - I was thinking they would get to the 31st. Anything beyond that will be nice but in the overall picture it isn’t that great.
anti-spam word is China - I am so in this till the end!!!!
Jo-Anne
2/28/06
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:40 pm
I have based my long term expectation for my referral on an average of 7 day batches even though that does not take into account numbers of LIDs for any particular month. Any batch in excess of 7 days (even a horrid 9 day batch) works in my favor and provides a buffer against those months with fewer than 7 days in them to hopefully keep me on track.
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Hi Everyone!!!
I hope they let everyone know soon when the cut off is.
I was trying to find out something from yesterday. waitingforaudrey posted that she got her match and was LID july 2006. Do some people get matched ahead of their date, and is this nsn?
Thanks everyone
Have a lovely weekend
Shamrock
06/02/2006
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:35 pm
I am hoping so much that this early roundabout rumor does not pan out.
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:49 pm
shamrock - waitingforaudrey is probably in the SN line.
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Yeah, there will be something very nice about seeing 2006 LIDs after following the ‘05 paperwork crawl for about 2 years now!
When this next batch arrives I think we should have a LID New Years party. Everyone come on over to our place, I’ll shake up about 2,500 martinis! Colorado microbrew also welcome.
RQ, thanks a million times over for this site. As my students here in NY would say “You’re Da Bomb!”
Peace,
Big Daddy
LID 3/21/06
February 22nd, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Great Attitude Big Daddy! It will be nice to see 06! Ask me that again in another year and we’ll see what I gotta say then! Anyways… the party is on!
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Miracles can happen!
February 23rd, 2008 at 1:33 am
I don’t think we can expect too much, with CCAA being on holidays for 2 weeks this month?
Lets hope the rumour is wrong anyway!
February 23rd, 2008 at 2:15 am
I’M WITH BIG DADDY ONE THIS ONE….SAYING ADEIU TO 2005 IS A LONG TIME IN THE MAKING…AND NINE LID IS JUST FINE WITH US…WITH 81 LID DAYS TO GO…THAT KNOCKS US DOWN TO 72 LID MAKING US(NEXT)…..AT LEAST A REFERRAL IS IN SITE FOR 2008…
…SIGNED MARCH 17, 2006….
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:36 am
I too like to knock “days” off my wait……….but doing so
the 6 month average sadly is 6 days not 7.
who’d have thought a “day” would make such difference.
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:49 am
starting 2006 has to be a big celebration all of its own.
Just to have a LID in the same year the ccaa are hopefully about to start referring is a GIANT step. Congratulations to all of us with 2006 LIDs. All of you with remaining 2005 LIDS and the 2007 LIDS YOU ARE GETTING NEARER ALSO
lid sept 8th 2006