Comments
Chitika Ad --> |
R2 - January 4A European Agency is saying the cut off is January 4. And a North American agency is confirming that the 4th will be in this batch. We’re at an R2 with this, if you aren’t familiar with the rating system then you should check out the Rumor Ratings link in the top right hand section of the blog. 
Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege. 52 Responses to “R2 - January 4”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
|
February 28th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I know, small batch but over the past month there were severe weather issues in China and the New Year holiday so maybe it is to be expected. HELLOOOOOO 2006! Welcome, welcome, welcome. Where the heck have you been? C’mon in but please don’t overstay your welcome. 2007 and 2008 need to drop by also.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
I hear that YR! We are already wanting 2006 folks to get out of our way! Although, I am sure they would be very happy to comply with our request!
February 28th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Our large China-only agency had assured us that things would speed up after CNY. If this is their idea of speeding up…sheesh! All of us 2007 LID families are dying here!!
February 28th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I’m so happy for the families getting a referral this month. Congratulations to all! But I’m also thinking that with a LID of 1/11/06, we’ll be right on the bubble next month. I can easily imagine the April cut-off date being January 10 or January 11. What a long month it will be…
February 28th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Never thought I’d be so happy to finally see 2006!!!
Congrats to those families who will be seeing their baby’s face very soon!
February 28th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Oh my Goodness I can not tell you how it awesome it feels to see that they are possibly referring my year 2006! LID 6-2-06
February 28th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
It’s Official Now! …. No Speed-Up :(
February 28th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
At least we’re in ‘06…… that’s cause for celebratation in itself…………….
Congrats to all receiving their referrals at this time…. :)
Shelley
3/28/06
February 28th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
With 2 8-day-batches now, could we expect another next month? Or larger(?) considering CNY and the weather will not be factors?
What does anybody have to say about this?
February 28th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Hey, 8 days ain’t bad! ;)
It could have been 1…..
Hooray for 2006!
February 28th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Well here’s hoping that tomorrow is the day…Congrats to everyone receiving a referral this month. 2006 is here to stay!!!
February 28th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
RQ, thanks for all you do….what would we do without this info??
Could you check to see why my posts aren’t coming through?
Thanks.
February 28th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Ah yes…sorry to be Debbie Downer. I do want to say a big old CONGRATS to families getting referrals soon. I wish there were just more families to congratulate!
February 28th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Congratulations to those of you who will FINALLY see your child’s face. Please remember to share so that those of us with a long wait ahead of us can keep hope alive.
Good bye and good wishes to 2005 and welcome (please don’t stay too long 2006!
LID 06/07/07
February 28th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Lilysmom2b,
I am with you!! LID 1-17-07. This is a long year. I have a feeling it will take until early ‘09 to get done March. I am trying to keep as busy as possible. This is our first baby. Congrats to everyone getting to see their babies!!! Come on 2006!!
February 28th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Our agency has told us that they expect a speed up after the Olympics are over. Any one else been told that?
Kelly
LID 7/23/2007
February 28th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Hello, I become nervous by minute and minute. Our date is excatly January 4 but I am very carefull. I just called my husband to tell him this good good news and he almost started to cry but also told me to be carefull to look forward that much but that is very hard after all those years. I pray to God that this is it………
I wish everybody all the luck….
Ingeborg
LID January 4 2006
(sorry for my English but I am not that good in writing)
February 28th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
I think this is the template agencies use:
“Speed-Up will Begin After [insert any event]“
February 28th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Well being LID 10-13-06 YES I am very happy that 06 is here…but come on lets get more then 8 days at a pop, we are still 290 days away, at 8 days a month that is another 3 years….I cant deal with this anymore…..
February 28th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Just thought I’d point out that this is an R2, not a done deal yet.
True, everything I’ve seen so far has pointed to this general time frame, but I’m not ready to take it past an R2 yet.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
It’s okay. This month is traditionally small due to CNY, right? Next month will be bigger. And the next even more.
Hang in there Jan 5th LID’s. By the time the snow thaws, you will have your referrals. And the rest of us will follow. Spring brings new life, right?
LID Feb 07
February 28th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
I know I’d being negative, but I wouldn’t really call this an 8 day batch. Last month was a true 8 day batch, so it is possible, but this one is, well, pretty lame — if the cutoff is really 1/4.
CCAA was closed on Jan 1,2,3 and there were only a small handful of LIDs on December 30 and 31. So it was really only 3 substantial days. I’d like to see them do better!
February 28th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Ingeborg-
I’ll pray for you too. No matter what, your baby is right around the corner. Hang in there.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Personally, my gut gives this rumer an R5
February 28th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
lilysmom2b - I believe we’re with the same agency and yes, they mentioned something like that not too long ago (the CCAA is expanding their efforts now that they have returned from their Chinese New Year celebration).
My agency (or our agency if we are with the same one) has been sending out contradicting information over the last few months - one month it’s “the wait will continue to lenghten”, the next month it is the CCAA is expanding their efforts”, then it’s “2009 will be better”.
Who knows what’s -really- going on?
February 28th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
China may scrap one-child policy, official says…
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-32199920080228
February 28th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
So excited that the rest of my December friends are getting their referrals and so excited to see January 07 finally up to bat!
Wendy
LID 12/27/05
DOR 2/04/08
February 28th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Unfortunately, for the past 2 years it was not the batch immediately after the CNY holiday that reflected the smaller numbers but the 2 months after that. It happened in both 2006 and 2007. It would be great if it changed this year but I’ll believe it when I see it. Already preparing myself for small April and May batches but would love to be proved wrong!
On a much, much better note, Congrats to all those who are going to see their baby’s face in the very near future!!!
February 28th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
“China May Scrap One-Child Policy”-
Okay, my heart sank when I read this article. If this comes to be, I am truly happy for the people of China and for the children who will get to stay with their birth people. I honestly am. But it scares me for us. If our daughter is not in China, then where is she?
I need to go home and have a nice hot cup of tea. Or maybe a vodka collins would be more helpful.
February 28th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
I’ve heard (well everyone could have… it’s on the Forum) that TWO European countries have confirmed 1/4 as the cut-off. Wonder what it would take to raise it from a R2? Do multiple US agencies need to be saying this as well? Guess I’ll go brush up on my “Ratings” scale… been a while since I’ve read.
February 28th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
The 4th as a cut off has been in circulation for a while. Its not brilliant but another 8 days isnt to bad compared to some previous months. I am just glad that finally we will be in 2006!
congratulations to all those who are expecting your referral this month.
February 28th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
My agency and others expect a speed up after June 2007 LID’s are complete.
February 28th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
My canadian agency CONFIRM than the cut-off is january 4th.Their next LID is january 12th.
February 28th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Is anyone aware of whether the weekends are included or not? For example…Does an 8 day batch from the 4th cut-off on the 12th, or 16th…It seems that we are overstating an 8 day batch if there are no LIDs on Saturdays or Sundays…does this make since?
February 28th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
eli, good point. :(
February 28th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
RUMOR QUEEN:
What do you think about what “scrapping in ontario” says? I hope she’s wrong, but afraid she’s right….What would you say?
February 28th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
Has anyone heard of any packages leaving China yet? Or what day we think the referrals will begin arriving? We’re 12/28!!! I can’t stand it!!!
SCRAPPING IN ONTARIO: Our agency told us in Dec/Jan not to expect to get our referral until Mar/Apr - because, they said, that Feb only moved 1 day in 2007 due to Chinese New Year. Is that not true? Must say…..we are thrilled it was incorrect!!!
February 28th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
the batches are going to be small. there is not going to be a speed up –the months get lighter but the referrals get fewer every.single. month.
I’m not trying to be a downer just a realist. I’ve been hearing “it will speed up when/if/after _____ ” for over two years now. The blank has been filled in with avian flu, hunan scandal, new year 2006, new year 2007, new year 2008, cny of 2006, 2007, 2008, when they bring more swi’s into the mix, when they increase the orphanage donation, and hold your breath THE OLYMPICS, etc, etc, etc.
Really, the only thing that seems to be a constant is that referrals do come out every single month. Almost like clock work and, in the world of IA, that’s a biggie!
At this point, I don’t think anyone should hang their heart on a “speed up” at least until the 5/07 lids are completed and maybe not even then if the number of referrals continues to fall, and fall, and fall. Sure, there will be better months (bad case??) and some really dismal months (worse than horrid??) and lots and lots of the “new normal” which seems to be right in the middle of horrid and bad. But it does keep plodding along, families are made each and every month and there is some solace to be found in that fact.
congrats to all who will receive referral this month. The rest of just have to hang in there –what choice to we have?
February 28th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Boudicca, We are most definitely with the same agency…I don’t know if I want to laugh or cry…Thank goodness we’re doing a concurrent adoption…and we just got our referral about a month ago!! WHOO-HOO! I’ve had to put my dreams of our little girl in China on a high shelf for now…we are LID April 23, 2007…I did have hopes we’d get our China referral in 2011…now 2012 is doubtful if you actually play out the current trends…can’t even think about it. Like I said, we’re just elated that we have the concurrent adoption option. This will be our first child!!
February 28th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Ingeborg, your comment brought tears to my eyes. I’m an LID of 12/06 so we are settled in for a long wait, unless our waiting child appears on the new listings sooner (that’s another whole comment, another whole posting, one that I hope can be addressed here soon???). Knowing that you are “on the line” with this batch must be exciting, terrifying, and crazy all at once. I don’t know you, but you and your tender-hearted hubby are in my thoughts and prayers!
To the rest of you waiting to hear about your precious baby in this batch or not: my thoughts and prayers are with you also! As one commenter previously stated, it seems as if the only consistent thing about this part of the process is the questions that it provokes!!!!
February 28th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
can someone please tell me, on average, what the correlation is between the number of days referred vs. number of babies referred? So, for an eight day batch, would the number of children and families being united be in the dozens, or the hundreds?
February 28th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
can’t wait until april referrals!!!
congrats to those who receive theirs soon!
LID 1/5/08!!!!!!
February 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
whoops! 1/5/06… definitely not 08′. must have been a little too excited!
February 28th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Weekdays - weekends, it does not matter. If 8 days are crossed off the calendar, then it’s an EIGHT day batch.
1/04/06 cutoff will thrill me, as it puts our 1/12 LID in possible reach next month.
February 28th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
“I think this is the template agencies use:
“Speed-Up will Begin After [insert any event]â€
well said! I never ever call my agency to ask, I don’t want whatever the answer du jour may be.
February 28th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
……well I have never been a card player or gambler, but it looks like “Crazy Eights” are going to be the game this month…..one could only hope for a “Royal Flush” or a Black Jack hand of 21…21 LID of course….tee hee…..
…any way “8″ is not bad…based on what we all have been thru…it is almost seemingly acceptable…
February 29th, 2008 at 1:12 am
ellabee -
the number of children referred every month is in the hundreds.
in 2006, americans alone adopted 6,493 girls from china. so, back then, more than 500 a month were referred, just for the u.s.
we know there are fewer visas issued now, down in the 5,000 range (i don’t have the time to search for the exact number!) but you see that, world wide, it is still a substantial number, and i believe china is still the leading provider of children for foreign adoptions.
February 29th, 2008 at 3:50 am
Congratulations to all who are anxiously waiting for pictures. Heres to hopeing the next cut off is Jan 13th. The thing to remember is that in the world of adoption no matter what country is uncertain. I keep thinking of my friends who have met and held their Guatemalean baby and are caught up in the Hague’s date of April, its been a long wait for all. Keep your chin up and shoot for the stars.
February 29th, 2008 at 4:09 am
With a LID of January 4th we are getting very nervous. As our agency (dutch) won’t give any information until the proposals have arrived, we are hoping more agencies confirm a cutt-off date of january 4th or a later date (which will be even better) very soon (like before the weekend starts) so the rating can go up to a R5 at least.
We’ll keep our fingers crossed for good news across the globe for a lot of anxious waiting parents-to-be.
February 29th, 2008 at 5:57 am
Thanks, DutchS. I’m sure you’re on the edge of your seat.
Anyone in Europe hear anything today (Friday)? Like Dutch wrote, just hoping for a bit more news before the weekend.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:52 am
A couple of people have questions about what I posted yesterday so I want to expand. My information is based upon the stats I have been keeping for the past couple of years. They are based on LID’s rather than number of babies referred as I do not have that type of information available to me.
Here is the information that I have gathered which is why I posted what I did. The past 2 years it seems that the batch directly after CNY is ‘normal’ and then the 2 after that are smaller - at least in the number of LID’s covered.
This is the information I have gathered:
2006 Referrals (CNY January 29, 2006)
January 25, 2006 - 18 LID’s
February 27, 2006 - 12 LID’s (first batch after CNY)
March 27, 2006 - 5 LID’s (second batch after CNY)
April 27, 2006 - 7 LID’s
May 26, 2006 - 9 LID’s
2007 Referrals (CNY February 18, 2007)
January 3, 2007 - 19 LID’s
February 1, 2007 - 16 LID’s
March 6, 2007 - 11 LID’s (first batch after CNY)
April 7, 2007 - 2 LID’s (second batch after CNY)
May 1, 2007 - 6 LID’s
The reason I’m posting this is because a few people have been saying that the small batch is the one directly after the CNY holiday and then the batches get bigger. I’d rather look at the facts of the past 2 years so that I’m not setting myself up for further disappointment. I tell you, I never want to go through the terrible shock and disappointment that accompanied last year’s 2 day batch again if I can possibly help it.
So, excited for those receiving referrals this time and prepared for a few bumpy months after that.
February 29th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
It’s hard to make a case for that with only tow years of date. Plus, in 2007 thats about the time we started this long string of single digit months anyway.
I jsut figure anything over 4 days is a good batch, and 7 plus is a great batch!