January 4
Two agencies are reporting that “the box” has changed to show that referrals have been made through January 4, and that the review portion still shows reviewed through October 31. It is clear that some reviewers have moved beyond October, but apparently not all of them just yet.
The Horrid Case scenario was January 5, so this is another very small batch.
I have not heard from families with LID’s of January 5 or 6 who were told by their agency that they were in or might be in. I’m assuming they did not get their referral. If any of you did, please let me know.
Congrats to the families included in this batch who are finally seeing your child’s face for the first time.
I’ll keep updating the “Babies!” post, so if you want your blog added please continue to post blog addresses and blog titles into the comments to that post.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Our agency just sent out an email with this information:
“Well, it is official – the CCAA just sent out referrals for families with a logged-in-date up to Jan. 4, 2006″
Congrats to all those included in this batch!
March 4th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Horrid? Seemed pretty darned good to me, it crossed 8 days off the calendar, putting our 1/12 LID within the realm of possibility for April!
8 down, 8 to go! Hurray for number 8! :
March 4th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Congrats to all those seeing their babies. I KNOW that amount of days really means nothing and that according to the numbers this was a really small batch- BUT, the only hard numbers I have to count are days and I have figured out a couple scenarios based on days. I have figured an average of 7 days per batch so anything more then that is “gravy”, I would have loved to seen more though.
I wonder if we will see 10-14 day batches again anytime soon.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
First, while it is 8 calendar days, when you consider the New Year’s holiday in there, they didn’t really do that many days.
Second, my projections are based on the number of people logged in during a time period. We need them to do a lot more days during the “slow log in periods” so that the average number of days can get higher. In other words, if they are only going to do 2 or 3 days of LID’s on the really really heavily logged in days, then it would be nice if they would do 12 or more days on the lightly logged in days so the average won’t be so low.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Just doing some quick math based on the last poll, if they do about the same teeny amount, they will only cover until the 10th of January. I am not a numbers gal at all, so I will leave it to RQ….but I counted 102 people in the poll from Dec 28-Jan 4th and 108 from Jan 5th-10th.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
I guess I’ve reached the point of forgetting about “when” it will happen, and looking at “if” it can still happen. Eight calendar day batches would still let it happen for me. It would make the remainder of my wait 4.33 years, and that still works (with my age, etc.) I hope it does for others as well.
I’m sure there are many here who feel the same way. We’ll suffer through this as long as we have to just as long as there’s finally a baby at the end of it all. I worry more for people who may age out due to the long wait. I’m close, so I truly understand that fear.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Not surprising we didn’t even make “horrid” considering it was the march referrals I guess. The march batch has been small I believe over the last two years. They just need to keep going. Let’s hope we at least get to “horrid” next month.
Come on HORRID!!! Its not a cheer I can muster much enthusiasm for really, but its something, I guess :-)
BTW: my agency director is in China and will be meeting with ccaa this week, hopefully some info comes out of it –not really keeping my fingers crossed though.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Congratulation to all families receiving referrals this month.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Bring on the baby pictures………
March 4th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Ladeeesquire,
So glad to hear something about this phantom meeting. I was beggining to think it was something I was dreaming about. Glad to know I am not completely nuts. Just half nuts!
LID 2-24-06
March 4th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
luvluv,
ladyesquire & I are w/the same agency and I was under the impression this was a meeting w/ccaa & our director only. Not a big meeting w/other agencies, but I could be wrong. Our director made it sound like the reason for the visit was to be introduced to the new employees at ccaa since our longtime contacts were gone.
March 4th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
March 4th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
If you analyze the numbers using the polls, the difference between Jan 4 and Jan 6 is big and makes a big differecne when extrapolating the numbers. It changed my current prediction by 4 – 5 months.
Conngrtulations to everyone receiving referrals this month.
Diane
March 4th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
LuvLuv:
Our LID is 2-23-06 — so glad we are finally into 2006!!
March 4th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
At least we’re in 2006…I’m *trying* to find the silver lining in all of this (if there is one).
March 4th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
My agency has people waiting for the 6th and were told that they are not in.
March 4th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Well another single digit batch, next Thursday will start month 18 of LID, and at an average of 8 days we are looking at 35 more months. I should have taken out a car loan the same month we got logged in, it would be paid off by the time we go to China.
Matt and Laura
LID 10/13/06
March 4th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
I’ll take 8 days over 2 any day!! Hang in there! It WILL happen!
March 4th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
…..Eight days is wonderful…heck of alot better than 2, 5 or 7…..eight more days to strike off the wait….72 LID’s of folks ahead of us…were are day 73….72 divided by 8…is nine more months for our referral…come on November 2008…
LID March 17, 2006
March 4th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
As a LID of 1/12 I am extremely encouraged that we are up to the fourth of January. I look at it this way, four more days for April then four more for May and we are golden. I think that is being cautiously optomistic/realistic. What does the RQ think.
March 4th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
mrsrolandi…
….if “8″ continues next month…you are the bomb…you are in and will see your child’s face..Yahoooo!!!! for you….
March 4th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
RQ-
We’re a 1/5/06 family and were told by our agency we would NOT be included in this batch. So you can count our agency as one who knew that we would have to wait another month.
March 4th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
First and foremost,
Congratulations to all of the families who have received referrals this month and will soon see the face of their little angels. This is truly a gift and I am thrilled for all of you.
Secondly, I am beginning to wonder if it is time we do a reality check. I realize China used to give very large batches with many LID days. In my heart of hearts, I truly believe those days are over. I realize I am relatively new to this community. I happen to come upon this site right before referrals were announced in November 2007. It was very exciting and brought tears to my eyes to witness this beautiful event. But month after month, I come for the same excitement only to have these wonderful feelings squashed because China ONLY got through 8 horrid days! RQ, you are a wonderful resource with all of the information you possess and share. Wouldn’t you feel better if you began to think in more positive terms than the negativity of comparing the current IA situation to the old way of doing business? Is there any chance you could refer to 8 days as a mid case instead of horrid or getting through x number of referrals per month as mid instead of horrid. I don’t know about anyone else, but I don’t want to be in a horrid place every month.
Stephanie
March 4th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
i don’t see how this can be a horrid case its been 5-7 days for so long now 8 days seem good
March 4th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Let me try this again.
Congratulations to all the families who have received their referrals this month. I am truly happy for you and your news only gives me hope in anticipation of meeting my own child.
Secondly, I believe it is time for a reality check. I’m not looking for anyone to blow sunshine up my skirt but to call an 8 day batch horrid is too much for me. We all need to deal with the fact that large batches in the China adoption program is a thing of the past. Considering we have been scared silly with a threat of a 1 day batch tempered with the ever present daydream of a 15 day batch, 8 days seems much more like a mid case than ever before.
RQ, I so appreciate all of the information you possess and share but I find it increasingly harder to get excited for the new families when I hear the word “Horrid”, which seems to occur every month.
Help me to understand why the bar can’t be changed to reflect the current standards and make the current situation more palpable.
Stephanie
March 4th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Our agency posted today on their webpage the CCAA box as stating that they have finished reviewing documents registered before October 31, 2006 and that they have finished the placement of children for families whose documents were registered before January 4, 2006.
LID 2/9/06
Cheers to all!
March 4th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
findinghope – no one is supposed to age out during the wait. i’ve checked this with my large china-only agency several times. your age freezes at login, as far as ccaa is concerned (just as the people who no longer meet the new requirements will still get a referral).
things rather rocky as it is, no need to set off another panic!
March 4th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
We’d love to have our blog included! We just received our SCL for our daughter Min Xiu in Fuzhou City, Jiangxi Province. Our blog is http://www.thewaitforkate.blogspot.com
Thanks!
March 4th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE….. at least we’re in ‘06
March 5th, 2008 at 1:48 am
Goodbye 2005 (and congratulations too) and HELLO 2006.(FINALLY)!!!…
Congrats to EVERYONE getting a referral this month…
March 5th, 2008 at 7:29 am
We are expecting a referral but we live in Canada so it may be awhile until we get our referral!!
I’ve tried to add this to the babies post 3 times in the last few hours but it isn’t showing up. Thought I’d try here. Sorry its my first time posting on the blog.
Could you please add our blog to the babies post? Thanks so much!!
Blog Name ~ Angela & Bryan’s journey to Ella ~
http://www.andellamakesthree@blogspot.com
Angela :)
LID Jan 4/06 for Ella
March 5th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Finding Hope,
There is no “aging out”. As long as your documents were logged in before May, the new rules don’t apply. Thank God because we were only married 2 years now. I really do believe things will pick up a little after next summer(09). It seems like March is such a large group and then the numbers start to go down. As for me, I am waiting to see when we were(if we were) reviewed. LID 1-2007. Congrats to everyone in the 1-4-06 group!
March 5th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Congrats to all the new families!
Linda
LID 1/6/06
March 5th, 2008 at 9:05 am
WelcomeHomeKelly ~ I certainly understand not wanting to be in a horrid place every month. I’m tired of this wait too.
However, I’m having trouble grasping why we keep going back to # of days instead of # of LID’s. I know it’s easier and in the back of my mind I have been figuring an average of # of days to get to my referral because it’s a whole lot easier than going to the poll, adding up the numbers and trying to figure it out. However, getting excited about an 8 day batch that really was more like a 4 day batch given the holiday is clouding the picture, IMHO. If you look at the polls, there were really only 4 “substantial” days in this last batch.
The only way I think it makes sense to get excited about the # of days instead of looking at # of LID’s is if you think RQ’s poll data is not representative of the population of waiting families. I think her data is fairly good…I just don’t like the results it gives me, but that doesn’t mean we throw out the data.
Please don’t take my post the wrong way. I’m desperately trying to cling to something that can make me feel good about this too, I just don’t think looking at days gives us an accurate picture of what’s going on.
March 5th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Sitting Tight and Rumor Slave,
ST: Yahoo, yes 2006! We have very close LIDS!
RS: I was told this by my CW. When is your LID? I wonder if we have the same agency?
March 5th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Kylasfamily,
I agree completely. I, too, and not impressed by the 8 day batch (which was really more like a 4 day batch)
I feel like we’ll never get anywhere if this continues. I’m pretty close to my referral, so I have hope, but I really feel for those further out. With batches like this, we are really looking at 5 year + waits. Something has to give. But will it?
March 5th, 2008 at 10:27 am
waiting for lucy –
you are NEXT!!
And hopefully we are as well …
Thank goodness ‘05 is over and done with!
LID 1/10/06
March 5th, 2008 at 10:31 am
I agree with Kylasfamily and got slammed a few weeks ago when I reported our agency’s guess for 2008 referrals and it being in compliance with RQs Horrid poll results.
When you do the math on RQs poll, the monthly referrals are quite accurate. The number of days is nice to know but it does not help figure out next month’s LID numbers.
Our LID is 2/9/06 and based on RQs poll we are hoping to get a proposal in August or September and travel in October, November or December, depending on the travel back log due to the olympics.
I do not like the numbers and wait either. However, we should all be concentrating on number of LIDs and not days.
Well said Kylasfamily!
Cheers to all!
March 5th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Sending hugs and blessings out to all of you who received news of your babies this month!!! Congratulations! What a loooooooooong ride, but good for you for hanging in there. What a testimony of faith, persistance, and a desire for your child that you did not abandon ship! Your child will know they were wanted, hoped for, prayed for, waited for even when the wait got tough. What a blessing to pass along to them! Our thoughts and prayers are with you as you begin your new lives together!!
Now, GO CCAA!!! BIG BATCH NEXT MONTH!!
LID 1/13
March 5th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
I actually am totally psyched just to see ‘06 instead of ‘05–honestly, I thought we’d never get out of that year. And although 8 days isn’t great, at least things are plodding along in the right direction. I know that I’ll be 50 when we get our referral next year (4/06 LID, second baby) but have just decided, so what. As a friend of mine said the other day, you have to take your happiness when you can. This will be worth the wait!
March 5th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I could not agree more with kylasfamily. I think we all need to realize that the bottom line is that we do not have any control over what is happening. I think that reading into “the numbers” too much is very symptomatic of attempting to predict or control what is going on. As someone who has waited for greater than two years, trust me, we have NO control. With that said, I too am glad to see 2006 and am happy that my long wait will soon be over!
March 5th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
I have read the comments about LIDs vs. # of Days.
I agree with Kylasfamily’s analysis. I also admire RQs analysis as hers is the most “scientific” method of making projections that anyone can come up with considering our limited knowledge of what’s going on in China.
However, knowing and acknowledging the intellectually honest and best approach used by RQ, I, for myself can find a bit of peace and predictability in going by # of Days–the numbers of LIDs fluctuate widely each month. Days are countable. So while an 8 day batch may have very few LIDs, another 8 day batch has a lot. And it just seems that the CCAA seems to default to 7-8 day batches regardless of numbers of LID…. This keeps me from dreaming of a two week batch over CNY when supposedly there were no LIDs. I don’t want to be disappointed when they refer the smallest number ever and that corresponds to just 7 days over CNY. These is just my personal thought to have someway of tracking things.
March 5th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Eight Days is Eight Days, no matter if weekends, holidays, or whatever is included. So what if there were days when no one was logged in!
We crossed 8 days off the calendar, we had 16 days to go, now we have 8.
March 5th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
There seems to be a misunderstanding in what I posted. I am not arguing regarding whether RQ should post in terms of days vs LID #’s. I was simply stating that the numbers are what they are and getting an 8 day batch should no longer be considered a “Horrid” case. My husband and I looked at the previous polls and made our own predictions based on those numbers. We basically counted off by 100 and wrote down the date we thought would be the cut off. So far, we have been on the date for the months we have made predictions. So what has changed? The numbers seem to be the same regardless of how many days are posted. I just don’t agree that we should call it “horrid” anymore. It’s a new year, I need all of the positive I can get regardless if I have to wait 6 more months or 3 more years. It is what it is.
Stephanie
LID 2/6/06
March 5th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
WelcomehomeKelly:
Since your predictions have come true, could you please make a forecast for LIDer’s of 1/13………………….
Pretty Please!
March 6th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
rjk,
My magic 8 ball says May for you…I so want it to hit the 11th next month but I think it’s going to stop at the 10th. I hope I am right for your sake.
I just wonder how China looks at the numbers and what numbers they see.
What are your thoughts on 2/6/06? Any good words of encouragement?
March 13th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
hi everyone, we are a lid of march 22 2006, so close but yet so far away, at least 2005 is behind us…this is my first time to this site and i love it, great work rumor queen…we are from canada…
March 13th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
rq i was wondering what your predictions are for lid of march 22 06