A Visual
Once again, here is a visual of the last three referral batches based on the most recent daily poll.
I’ll be doing my Projections post in the next day or two, but this was pretty easy to put together until I can sit down and do the math needed for that post.
As I’ve said before, when looking long term it’s probably more accurate to look at number of days referred each batch as an average. However, when looking at the short term, the polls appear to give us the best indicator of how things are likely to fall.
March 6th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Thanks RQ We are LID 1-13-06 can’t wait to see your projections on this next batch. Lisa
March 6th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Thanks RQ - If the pool is representative, this batch was pretty small compared to the previous one. I do not want to be pessimistic for the next one if we keep in this trend, but…
Lic Oct 06 for DD or DB 2
March 6th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
RQ thanks so much for this and for all you do. I can’t wait to see your projections for next month.
Susan R
LID 1/10/06
Sophia Joy
wwwchinaladybug.blogspot.com
Anti Spam word is mama …. :)
March 6th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Fabulous Visual! I had another great visual today as I witnessed a friend carrying her new precious daughter from the WC program. They arrived back in town just Monday. My friend originally shared the same lid 3/29/06 until she completed the SN program paperwork…Her daughter is beautiful…It is real..Children really are being matched with their forever families. Of course, my gracious response to seeing them, tears…big ones and lots of them…Not sure that is what they needed at the moment…but we do the best we can! They know I feel all joy for them…I am just sooooo ready!
March 6th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I can’t wait to see 2/28/06 on something :)
March 6th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Don’t forget that speculation was that December 20th was so big, that part of it was matched two months ago, not simply last month — meaning the day was so big that some of it was matched in January, but because the day was so big, it was not referred until the next month …. so you almost need to look at a blended average of January & February (which is 122). When you look at that number, compared to 102, it is not so different (though still incredibly small).
With a LID of 09/06, I figure the Chinese population will be in negative growth before I get my referral (cynical I know)!
March 6th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
By looking at the visual, hopefully there will be a large jump in days at the end of january, with the 28th jan to the 5th feb only having 10 people on this poll. I know actual lids are more important than days, but it might hopefully give a boost.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Angelynn~ Since it was CNY during those dates it’s more than likely that these are mistakes of some kind.
Is there anyone who voted in error or is there anyone out there who truly has a LID from January 29th through February 5th, 2006? It really shouldn’t matter because the numbers are so small but it would still be nice to skip a week. I know it probably evens out somewhere but a girl’s gotta dream:)
Jo-Anne
2/28/06
March 6th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
I always tell everyone that, “things always happen for a reason”. OK, what possible reason is there that we should’nt get our babies within 3-4 years??? (I could’nt write out any further year..or I’d get nauseous). Come on CCAA..get it together. Did’nt we all scramble to get our paperwork together, did’nt we have to get things together that were a hassle, did’nt we take time out to go to doctors, fingerprinting, police departments,etc etc etc. Just sick of all the reasons of why they cant seem to get it together.
March 6th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
jadelinsmom
Either the CCAA is referring all the children that the provinces are making available to them or someone higher up than the CCAA has imposed a quota on the number of children that can be referred. No matter which of those two you choose to believe there really isnt much “it” for the CCAA to get together.