When
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 32, 25, 35, 30, 28, 32, 29, 31, 33, 26, 32, and 31 days.
The lowest time between batches is 25 days, the highest is 35, and the average is 30. However, 31 days shows up twice and 32 days shows up three times.
With all of that in mind: The soonest I’d expect to see them this month is Friday, March 28 and the latest is Monday, April 7. The most likely arrival based on the average would be Wednesday, April 2, 2008. However, taking into account that 31 and 32 show up more often, it’s also likely we’ll see them on Thursday, April 3 or Friday, April 4.
My best guess is that we’ll see rumors begin by the middle or end of next week and referrals will arrive by the middle or end of the week after that - the first few days of April.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Too funny! This was exactly what I was looking for and was coming in to check the archives figuring I’d missed the ‘When’ post. Thanks RQ! Great, helpful information as always and greatly appreciated!
March 17th, 2008 at 9:13 am
The 28th would be incredible, but I so think the 3rd or 4th seems more likely. I just want it to be here already!!
Thanks RQ!
LID 1/10/06
March 17th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Thanks! This is the worst time of the month for me. When the When Post is done, before any rumors. 1-2 silent weeks. But I always appreciate the When Post.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Lately we have had long weekends waiting for referral news so I am laying odd on it being April 7 (Monday). It would be great if it were a full week earlier but I think 4/7 is the day to focus on. just a gut feeling.
AW
March 17th, 2008 at 10:00 am
With all the things they are going in the Netherlands, I hope more than ever that we will be next!! LID jan. 11 ‘06! Thanks RQ for the when post! Now fingers crossed!
March 17th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Rumor Quenn,
Any reflections on how the unrest in China with the Tibet situation might or might not influence the adoption process?
March 17th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Come on China, send us a HUGE, HUGE, HUGE batch!! And keep them coming!! PLEEEEEASE!!
Let’s get up to at least 15 day batches every month. That’s right in the middle. I don’t even want to admit how badly I need my faith restored right now. I’m so close to giving up.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:26 am
April 7th would be awesome! 1 day before dh’s and my 13th wedding anniversary! (And 3 years ago on April 9th we submitted our application to our agency.)
Be nice to be in this batch…but I’m not counting on it.
Tracy
LID 1-12-06
http://dayadopt.blogsome.com
March 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I’m wondering since last month was a virtual wasteland of rumors, do we really expect to hear anything by next week?
I don’t know if that’s good or bad. Most of the rumors turn out to be not true so maybe there’s some value in not getting your hopes up. My hopes have been crushed so many times that it gets physically exhausting after a while.
I have to admit, though, that every month I continue to hope that this will be the month a big batch comes through.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:56 am
I’m hoping for April Fool’s Day. It would be an appropriate end to this ridiculous wait! LOL!
Vanessa
March 17th, 2008 at 11:20 am
We’ll be at the beach the first week of April for Spring Break… better give my agency our cell phone numbers!
LID 01/05/06
March 17th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I’m also thinking April 7th, as a few others have mentioned.
hey Tracy/tlday13 - April 7th is also one day before dh’s and my 13th wedding anniversary!!!
Nancy
March 17th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
April 4 is Tomb Sweeping Day (a day off for the CCAA). I’m betting the referrals will be in the U.S. prior to that day.
I am hoping they do enough to get us to our LID. Four years ago in April we got our first referral. Hard to believe the wait is so close to being “over”.
March 17th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Well I must say after 796 days of waiting reading this post today nearly took my breath away. Don’t get me wrong…with an LID of 1/11/06 if we make this group it will be close, but either way we are so much closer than we have ever been. My stomach is doing flip flops and I have checked this site waaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy to much. Hoping for an early birthday present…a gift of a lifetime!
Emily
LID 1/11/06
March 17th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
This is OT, but has anyone heard anything about the Netherlands situation?
March 17th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
findinghope I am with you. I hate to admit how badly I need my faith restored right now. We have also thought about giving up. This waiting is breaking my heart, especially after ever referral batch comes through and I say “YOU’VE GOT TO BE KIDDING!!!” This will be our first child and we are getting older with this extended wait. Just last night we sat down and figured out just how much we’ve spent so far. This next batch just may be the determining factor on whether we continue with this. We are LID 3/24 so we have SEEEEVERAL more months to go, which wasn’t our plan but maybe it’s Gods plan after all, we don’t know. Everyone say that once we see our babies picture we will forget all about this wait. But at this time it’s so hard to just imagine seeing a picture. I just doesn’t seem real anymore.
It’s wonderful for those who are about to see their babies for the first time. I can feel the joy when I read about the referrals. Your wait is almost over. As for mine, my wait may over too depending on this next batch.
anti-spam word: FAITH
March 17th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
With a LID of 1/12/06 I find that time is positively crawling. I suppose that this is normal. While I would be thrilled if they included us in the batch, I am prepared to wait another month. It is nice to see that small light at the end of what has been a very, very long tunnel. Hang in there folks, our time is coming…
March 17th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
mommy2be,
don’t give up….you are so close and yet so far, but it is getting closer..a lot closer. You have travelled such a long journey already, survived the most intrusive questioning, most probably budgeted and gone with out some if not a lot of things, have had a heart in China for nearly 2yrs if not longer….and your child could have been born already.
And I’m sure there are many other reasons to hang in there. You say you are getting older, but your LID is a 2006 date, not a 2007 or 2008. So looking at the big picture..your child is hanging onto a very long red thread which is being realed in vey slowly and all of a sudden they will give it the last big tug sooner than you would think. And then your heart, head and home will never be the same again. :)
March 17th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
I read on an agency site, they expect the next group to be through 1-10-08 at next batch. A person I spoke to at my agency said that see thinks August will see no referrals because of the Olympics. I expected this though. Am I wrong to think it will take through late summer ‘09 to get through March ‘06?? I am going by where things are now and what I read on the polls on RQ. March is such a huge group. Having a bad week here. I thought I would be taking the baby to her first egg hunt this weekend. Also, not looking forward to Mother’s Day. I dread the holidays.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Oh My Aching Head!!!! My husband and I rarely post but with a LID of 1/10/06 I can’t believe we “could” possibly see our daughters picture within the next two weeks!!! RQ - I love you and this site and can honestly say you and your site have been of the few things that have helped me survive this wait!! I agree with others that say this month has absolutely inched along, but oh will the inching be worth it!! “Hang on Sydnee, Mommy and Daddy will be coming soon!!”
It is insane to believe that this wait is actually almost over!!
God Bless!!
March 17th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Wait4ever,
I know it’s hard. This wait is insane, no question about it! Please try not to make things harder on yourself by worrying about fake “holidays” such as Mother’s Day. Like Father’s Day, and Grandparent’s Day, these days are really just there to boost card and other retail sales! I’m already a mom and I think it’s so silly–I know I’m in the minority with this, but try not to let something so trivial bug you! There are much more important things to worry about. Hang in there!!
March 17th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
I’m just curious…and have not read all your graphs yet. When are you expecting the September 2006 LID to receive referrals? Do you have a month guess? Thanks!
March 17th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
I totally understand the difficulty of waiting, and admittingly, it’s easier knowing from the beginning that it would be at least a 2 yr wait (likely a 3 yr wait). And already having our first daughter home is easier waiting for DD #2 as well.
But, I don’t think of Mother’s Day as “fake” When you get the homemade card from your little cutie, with sparkles all over it, in the shape of a heart…..you realize how REAL Mother’s Day is.
Wait4ever, it’s ok to feel sad on times like this. Realize though, that your child is on her way to you. And although it’s a difficult wait, she is the ONE child that will make her way to you when the time is right.
Karen
March 18th, 2008 at 3:01 am
When my paper work went in I was told it was a 6 month wait. With a LID of 6Feb06 I should have a two year old in my house with the 5 year old I was graced with 4 years ago. When I was waiting for #1 I never came to this site. I thought to myself, it will happen when it happens. Now I visit on a regular basis, HANGING on every word I read. My in sides are sick. I am at a cross roads here. My little girl will be attending all day Kindergarten and I will have to return to work (to maintain my sanity and pay for the private school tuition). Please, please, PLEASE China, complete my family soon.
March 18th, 2008 at 3:43 am
Hi Kyleigh,
You asked about the situation in The Netherlands. It has calmed down a bit. I wrote about in in a comment on the blogpost ’some clarifications’.
The minister sent a letter to parliament in which he explained the nuances of the situation. It was a relief to see that the Justice-department looks at the situation from different angels, not just the angle of the documentary as shouwn on dutch televison. So everything calmed down. We have to wait till the end of May ‘08, when the minister of Justice reports again to parliament.
Cheers everyone.
March 18th, 2008 at 6:52 am
Keileigh,
The minister of Justice has written a letter of 3 pages to the Dutch parliament. He wants an investigation and will visit China on short time. He wants to speak with high officials
and cooperate with authorities of countries who also adopting from China. He thinks he can give more information before 1 May 2008. At this moment the minister don’t see any reason to take drastic decisions. First of all China/CCAA must have the possibility to give a reaction.
March 18th, 2008 at 8:15 am
mommy2be-
I did give up. With an LID of Feb 07, I know that realistically I have about 4 years to go. I couldn’t take it anymore, and I applied to another program. But here’s the thing about being a mom…my heart just wouldn’t let me do it. I withdrew my application.
I knew that by switching programs, I would have a baby in about a year. And it was actually going to cost a lot less money. It was the completely sensible thing to do. But it wasn’t the “mom” thing to do. My child is in China, and I will wait for her forever.
It will be the longest 4 years of my life, but I can do it for my child. And so can you. That has become my new prayer…give us all the patience and perserverance to find our way to our children.
March 18th, 2008 at 8:44 am
FindingHope-
Thank you for your inspirational post. Your daughter is probably not even born yet, but she is pulling at your heartstrings already. Amazing!
March 18th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Thanks, KarenInCa. I guess that’s the beauty of adoption. Our children get to live in our hearts long before they live in our lives. And they have the chance to pull us back if we start to turn away. Here’s to a speedy 4 1/2 years :)
March 18th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Hi Mommy2be, You are so close… If you can, hang in there just a little longer. A year will go by in the blink of an eye, and then you will have your baby. I am LID 3/19/07 - that seems hopeless… but yours is almost within reach. This is my first time posting, but I just sensed some desperation that made me want to reach out to you.
March 18th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
KarenInCA,
I know I’m in the minority when it comes to Mother’s Day, and all those other days, as I said. I simply was trying to point out that there’s no need to invest all that emotion needlessly into one day that is pretty arbitrary and commercial. My daughter makes things for me all the time (she’s five), as I’m sure all of ours do. It just seems futile to me to put invest so much extra emotion into a so-called “holiday”.