Thoughts on this batch
First, I’d like to reiterate that those who get asked questions in review are usually losing their place in line. Some agencies are not warning families of this and families are being blindsided when they don’t get a referral when they expect to. If you were asked questions in review there is a very good chance that you will be placed with a later LID group from your agency. Not always, but it seems to be happening quite frequently, so be prepared.
Second, we have this “age of babies” discussion several times a year. The ages come in cycles and I don’t know why that is unless it’s just the general clustering-randomness of the universe showing itself. One month there will be lots of young babies and the next month there will be a whole lot of almost two year old babies. So far it hasn’t meant anything other than some months the babies tend to be younger and some months they tend to be older.
Third, I haven’t heard anything about expedited referrals in a while. The CCAA tends to wait several months and then do a big expedited batch, and then go months with nothing for the expedited families at all. Sometimes an agency will have an idea that an expedited batch might be coming and we start hearing about it before a batch comes out, but I haven’t heard any whisperings of that in a while. My guess is that the next time the CCAA can get a decent sized batch out they will include some expedited dossiers. No one really knows, though.
And lastly, this was a small batch. A tiny one. We are starting to get a few more agencies jumping on the “after the Olympics things will speed back up” bandwagon. But, don’t we start to hear something every year during the summer that things will get better next year? Also, I find it ironic that one of the agencies shouting the loudest a few years ago that the slowdown had nothing to do with the Olympics is now saying that things will be fine again once the Olympics are over. I guess I don’t really know what to think. Part of me thinks they wouldn’t be so obvious as to just speed up once the Olympics are over, and part of me thinks they might. I’m not going to count on it though, and I would suggest that’s probably a healthy way to look at it. Hope for it to happen, don’t get your hopes up too high, and don’t count on it.
I’ll try to get my analysis done later today.
Once again, congratulations to everyone who managed to make it into this batch!
April 8th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Thanks RQ. I think a lot of us will breathe much easier once we’re out of review.
April 8th, 2008 at 8:58 am
As for the agencies that are sure there will be a speed up:
If they go from 5 day batches per month to say 10 day batches – then technically they would be speeding up.
The month I was due a referral there was a 2 day batch, then two 5 day batches. (the last one I just got in the batch cutoff)
Basically it couldn’t slow down any more.
April 8th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Judging by the activity (or lack of it) announcing referrals on the Yahoo Jan groups, this is probably in fact a small batch. I wonder if the winter storms played a big part in this small group, as mail and ground transportation faced serious challenges. Could this lead to a larger than [recent] average batch coming up? It wasn’t that long ago, that many orphanage personnel in the affected areas were concentrating on just keeping the children alive, and did not have time for anything else, like preparing dossiers. They may be catching up soon.
As to the Olympics contributing to the slowdown, I doubt anyone outside the CCAA knows whether there is any truth to it. Right now, China has image problems far more serious than that of adoptive parents and their new children boarding airplanes for home!
I still feel that if there is any artificial reason for the slowdown, it is to encourage people onto the SN path. For the officials it may be a matter of simple economics: make it more attractive to adopt the children that consume more of the always scarce resources in the orphanages.
Three weeks ago, I was confident that if our 1-12-06 LID missed this batch, then we were a near certainty for May, now I am not so sure.
April 8th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Thanks RQ for everything. I have never been a fan of the theory that the slow down was due to the Olympics until recently. My mind is changing as well.
Today, the press on the protests surrounding the torch and the events in Tibet have shown me how much the world truly is focused on China right now. In fact, my paper this morning said that the torch run was a “PR nightmare” for China. Maybe the Olympics have just caused so much havoc right now that the government bureaucracy is just slower. For example, if decisions need to be made in the IA program, such as staffing, bringing new orphanages on board, the decisions are being bogged down due to a lack of attention from decision makers. Please note this theory is purely speculation.
I don’t believe that there will be a smooth transition to a speed up at all. However, I think we may return to more routine 7 day batches after the batches.
The March batch has also been small the last two years. I do believe now that the Chinese New Year prevents some paperwork from being completed that enables more referrals to be made. We suffer the same in the summer in the US. I can’t tell you how many jobs I have had where everything hits in September because everyone is back from their vacation.
Congrats to all the new parents!
Hann23
April 8th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Never say it ‘couldn’t slow down any more’. It has. It probably will again. I’m not trying to be negative here, just realistic.
April 8th, 2008 at 10:03 am
My agency is one that has said they hope for a “speed up”after the Olympics. The only thing is a backlog started back in 2005, so I’m not sure the Olympics will have much of an effect. I do think, however, that things will be better after the March group is finished. The only negative thing with that is I believe it will take the entire year of 2009 to finish March. I still believe we will get our refferal sometime mid 2011 or so. I was disappointed by what RQ said about losing your place if questions are asked in the review room. I don’t anything to happen to lose our place. We are already waiting way too long. LID 1-2007
April 8th, 2008 at 10:06 am
kms….never say never…it could slow down more between now and September…but hopefully it won’t. I also thought this batch was one of the smallest for awhile…look at how few baby postings there are on the blog…there used to be a whole long list…that says a lot to me.
Congrats to everyone receiving referrals this month.
April 8th, 2008 at 10:53 am
RQ can’t wait to see your analysis post. Thank you for all you do for us waiting. Lisa
April 8th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Does anyone know what kind of things the review room would question. We are still in our Dossier Stage so we have a while to get into review. By my guestamation about 15 years. Just Kidding… Maybe :)
Tonya Lid ??-??-??
April 8th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Can RQ or someone answer the following question? When does CCAA get the files from which they match each month? For example, does CCAA get a group of files early each month from the orphanages and then work on matching them up with parent dossiers? That is the one piece of the matching puzzle of which I am not aware. Thanks.
April 8th, 2008 at 11:15 am
RQ – Thank you for taking time away from GG and TT to run this site; some days it saves my sanity as we continue to wait for our baby girl. As for the smaller batch, I wasn’t at all surprised given CNY, the storms, etc. What I am hopeful for, however, is that we will see more LIDs in each batch when the Feb ’06 LIDs start getting matched. My hope is that during CNY in ’06 there weren’t many dossiers being logged in by the CCAA. Don’t know if that’s too optimistic or not so would love your thoughts based on the data you’ve tracked.
April 8th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Like everything else about parenting, we really just don’t know anything, and can only take this one day (month) at a time. However, as others have pointed out, last April the batch size was two! The average # of days the last 12 months was 5. So 4, though disappointing of course, is not an aberration considering the month. There were only 2 two-month periods where they did fewer than 10 days, so, with an LID of 01-19-06, I’m hopeful for May. Does anyone see it different? If so I’d like to know so I can adjust my expectations. Blessings to all – and comfort for those with LIDs much farther out -
April 8th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Nbmooney,
i think they just will go througt 12 january in may,
18 january in june and 25 january in july…
it’s just my opinion…
Severine lid 01/24/06
April 8th, 2008 at 11:42 am
At the risk of sounding to optomistic (again), I don’t think it will take a year to complete March of ’06. Accoriding to the polls, it’s not as big as November ’05, and that did not take a year.
At the risk of being Pollyanna, I think it will get a bit better within the next 6 months or so. Given the Olympics being over, a little attrition (probably not that much), I think we’ll see us make some progress.
Sorry, I know it sounds all to hopeful, but I have to believe she’s coming home.
April 8th, 2008 at 11:44 am
nbmooney~ I think may is a stretch for a 1/19/06 lid, just my opinion.
And, it definitely CAN get worse. This is bad, really bad, horrible but it CAN get worse. That’s why RQ always uses “worse” case scenario and not “worst” case. The “worst” case is that they just stop referring all together, or they skip a month or two. It can get worse from where we are now although I don’t think any of us want to envision that happening.
susan
lid 2/13/06 –35 lids to go but almost given up guessing when we might receive referral {:-[
April 8th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Chickensoupforchina :
Reagarding the size of marsh, remmember that they are far from getting a referral. Months are usually getting bigger on the polls when they come closer to referral date. Marsh people have knwon for quite some time that their wait will be long so a part of them do not follow forum asds closely as 01/10 liders fror exemple.
hope that makes sense
Al
April 8th, 2008 at 11:57 am
I have to admit that this is the one area, the Review Room, that is causing me stress. I have the stupidest little thing on my medical report, but I’m so afraid that they’ll want additional info on it. Can we hear from people who have gotten questioned? What conditions did they question, and how much “later” were you given a referral?
April 8th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Unfortunately, not only can it get slower, I predict that it will. I honestly believe that there will be no referrals issued after June until September or October. I also think that there will be no TAs issued at all in July or August. No, I don’t work for the CCAA, I’m just basing this on what I know about China and their concern over holding the perfect Olympics. We’re talking about a country that has spent massive amounts of time and money to ensure that the sky in Beijing is blue “enough†during the games. China has displaced people permanently from their homes and businesses for the convenience of the visitors during the games. Street beggers are being forcibly relocated so as not to be a national embarrassment. If China is going to these lengths to ensure perfection, why would we think they would chance having a reporter run into a gaggle of foreign parents with their newly adopted Chinese children? Flame on, but I think referrals and TAs are going to be low on the list of priorities in Beijing this summer. (Anti-spam word: Beijing)
April 8th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
My agency, which has been GREAT, sends out an email newsletter each time the CCAA box is updated along with some little tidbit like, “the families receiving referrals in this batch have waiting 26 months. The current wait is expected to get longer.”
When I speak to them, they are honest and say this, “Perhaps things will pick up after the Olympics, but who really knows? All I can say is that the wait won’t continue to be this long forever. In international adoption, there are periods of slowness and periods where referrals come quickly. It will change, we just can’t say when.”
April 8th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
We got questioned about our file. We have a LID of May 12,2006. They wanted to know about our finances. And had to redo medical. Everything went fine. But it took a couple months before we got approved. As our agency was waiting for a couple other families to finish up answering their questions too before our paperwork was sent in
. So exactly how far would this set us back? The agency never mentioned it could set us back from our group. But I definately believe it could happen. Very disappointing:(
April 8th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
It is hard not to be hopeful – after all – hope is all we have at this point. I think my dh and I have decided to just hope that she will be home for Christmas. With an LID of 1-24-06, I think that is safe to hope for. As far as the Olympics, I think we thought at first when people/agencies spoke of the slowdown they meant in regard to the workers not being available to process adoptions because of the conflict of the Olympics – either being pulled away to do other work, or being barred from traveling to the office or something. Now we realize there is a whole other level of concern – it is that we won’t be able to travel because we won’t be able to afford the hotels or flights, or they won’t be available because the tourist for the Olympics have them all booked, or more importantly – the government doesn’t want more “outsiders” in the country than they can monitor at one time. In fact, they are already installing secret cameras in Beijing to spy on Olympic tourists (this may be a rumor, but I wouldn’t put it past them) – not nice! I was wondering what RQ thought about the theory that the slowdown has less to do with the decrease in babies and the increase in applications – and more to do with the government not wanting so many foreigners in their country at one time? I know it sounds far-fetched – but just curious if anyone else thinks that may be why there are so many small batches. Small travel groups are easier to “control”. Obviously, the babies are there or the program would be closed by now. So maybe the parcing out slowly of referrals has more to do with them controlling who is entering and exiting the country? hmmm… just an idea.
china4ever – and ever – and ever :)
LID 1-24-06
April 8th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
RQ I can’t wait for your analysis. What was the number of referrals made in this small batch? Over tht year, in the lowest number of days done, what was the number of referrals? Everyone keeps forgetting that it is not the number of days but how many referrals are in the batch. My LID is 1/12/2006 and I too am uncertain given the big batch on the 12th if we would be included in next referrals.
April 8th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
RQ,
Thanks for addressing the expedited applications! CCAA has been matching one month at time for expedited apps (when they do match any at all). We’re hopefully 2 batches away. My husband has a gut feeling that we won’t be matched till after the Olympics – I hope he’s wrong.
Amy
April 8th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
It sounds like to me that agencies are trying to hold onto a ray of hope that things will get better and are using the olympics as a reason for the slow down, hence a speed up afterwards. There isn’t anyone out there who doesn’t wish things will get better..or quite possibly there is?
April 8th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Chickensoup for china,
I hope I am wrong. I hope it goes much faster than I am predicting. I am just thinking that January will take until about Oct. or so. February might take about 5-6 months?? That would put things about March 2009. I figure about 6-8 months for March?? That would put things close to the end of ’09. I hope not!!
April 8th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Mary and Ciro
lid January 12
i hope coming soon
1 month………
April 8th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
I agree w/ (wait4ever) and (ObabyEbaby). I don’t think the Olympics initially had anything to do with the long wait as this got started years ago. I also agree that TA’s will be limited if they will occur at all during the month before and after the Olympics.
I don’t think things will speed up in any significant fashion to get through this massive backlog. My husband and I have a LID in 1/2007 and we will give this until January 2009,but if the pace remains the same for 2 years I consider that a standard pattern and not an aberrant fluncutation. At current pace we have 4.6 years to go…
April 8th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
My wife and I were moved back in the review room. I needed to get clarification from my doctor on a health issue, and our agency specifically told my wife and I that our LID would remain 1-4-06. Last month we got a call when they got their package of referrals saying they had no idea where ours was, and that they would get on it ASAP. The next day we got a call saying that because the review room needed clarification on my health issue, the CCAA had put us in a later LID batch, so we will be matched with Feb families. Now our big worry is that our agency does not have anyone else with our LID–its now 2-1-06, and our agency’s first LID in Feb is 2-9.
So that leads us to wonder if we will have to wait until a later group goes with our agency, or what. The other issue is this extra four month wait may very well require us to do a THIRD homestudy and a THIRD I-600A renewal. And we renewed ours for the second time before they gave you the free renewal.
April 8th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
What does ‘expedited referrals’ mean?
April 9th, 2008 at 3:59 am
We were blindsided by a delay caused by a question in the review process. At the time our agency thought the question would not cause a delay since we were able to send a letter off to China from our doctor within a week. Turned out not to be the case at all. In the end it added about 4 months to the process, but it could have been much longer based on the information our agency was able to obtain from CCAA. Basically we were told we were “put in the next month”. Fortunately it turned out to be the beginning of the next month, or it would have been another 10 months. This happened about a year ago. Things worked out well in the end and we feel so fortunate to have a child now; a wonderful daughter. But that time of uncertainty was really hard.
Our hearts and thoughts to out to the families going through the wait.
papabear for mamabear
April 9th, 2008 at 4:04 am
To follow up on my last post…
We ended up traveling to China as a group of one family: us. Worked out just fine. Everything in China went like clockwork, and I mean everything.
April 9th, 2008 at 8:52 am
I have to admit that until the box reads “Reviewed through Feb 07″, I’m going to have a knot in my stomach. With 4-5 more years to wait, I can’t imagine having time added on because of a question in the Review Room; and I just have this really sick feeling that they’re going to have a question about my medical.
But, as I try to remind myself daily, it’s all going to happen as it’s supposed to happen. I need to just ride it out and let things happen as they will.
April 9th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
I have a friend who returned from China with her SN boy last month. She told me that she asked a Chinese citizen what they thought about the long wait for referrals was all about. This person said “the Olympics!”. Just my luck that I would get right in the middle of this whole mess.
She also relayed to me that the shops are doing very little business and the White Swan breakfast room has very few adoptive families in it.
I can only hope that this is true and things will eventually get back to “normal”. With a Feb 6. 2006 LID I was initally told I had a 6 month wait. That was over 2 years ago.
I might have to watch the Olympics so I know exactlly when they are over!
April 9th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
kismit44-
The White Swan breakfast room :) :) :) :) Oh, you just brought tears to me eyes remembering the White Swan and how beautifully my life changed in 2002 (adopting my first daughter).
I WANT TO BE BACK AT THE WHITE SWAN!!!!! with one daughter by my side and another in my arms.
COME ON CHINA…let’s get moving here ! :) !
April 9th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
It will be very interesting to see what happens in the months following the Olympics it the referral pace does not speed up.
What will it be blamed on then?
The Farmer From Iowa
LID 1-12-06
April 10th, 2008 at 10:40 am
We adopted in 1996… Our dossier went off in August 1995, referral mid-October 1995 (she was 3-1/2 months old at referral) and we traveled late January 1996–travel delayed for various reasons, we were originally supposed to go in November 1995. When we were at the White Swan there were several couples with 4-month-old babies and I personally know of people who adopted babies who were younger than that-not common but it happened.
She was our 4th child–at that time you had to be 35 or older and childless. We were over 35 but had three children at home and chose China specifically for the fact that we were required (at that time) to adopt special needs as that was what we wanted. While we waited about 2-1/2 months for a referral there were some people being referred in a lot less time than that-we were actually at the longer end of the average wait (average for that time).
That was still the time when China adoptions were somewhat “new” and when you told people you were adopting there they were surprised almost. These days it seems everyone knows someone who has or who is adopting in China.
I don’t post usually but am a long-time reader.
April 10th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
What is meant by “once we’re out of review”? I just joined this group, and I don’t remember hearing/thinking about our review when we adopted our first daughter. Does it mean that a lot (more) families are being denied referrals? Help!
April 17th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Am I missing something?
Why do people attribute the slow-down to the Olympics?
The slow-down began well before the Olympics was an issue.