Early Rumors, NSN TA’s, and Olympics Rumors
An agency says they will make it to the 12th. I do not know if the agency is saying that the 12th will be included, or if the 12th will be the cut-off. Either way, we’ve only got one agency saying it so it can’t be more than an R1 or R2 at this point.
As a reminder, here are my projections.
NSN TA’s from the most recent batch began arriving yesterday. Congrats to the families who are finally making firm travel plans!
In other news, a European agency was told by the CCAA that there would be no TA’s or matching during the Olympics, from August 8 to August 24.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:39 am
This whole time we have been hearing that the CCAA has been saying the Olympics wouldn’t really impact referrals, and now they are saying they are shutting basically shutting down during that time. Wonder what has changed? My guess is they were just saying what we wanted to hear until they finally had a plan. With a 2/28/06 LID it is starting to look like we might not even get our referral before the end of this year. Geez.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:40 am
I guess I can’t be terribly surprised by the news of “no matching and no TA’s”. I know this would just be a guess on your part, of course, but do you think they would have a batch that month?
April 29th, 2008 at 8:18 am
I’m a little confused about the post wording, “I do not know if the agency is saying that the 12th will be included, or if the 12th will be the cut-off.” I was under the impression that a cut-off date is always included.
Then again, I haven’t been sleeping well lately. (Gee, I wonder why?)
Tracy
LID 1-12-06
http://dayadopt.blogsome.com
Antispam word: Kunming… be interesting to see if my child is from there. Assuming, of course, the 12th makes it this month….
April 29th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
April 29th, 2008 at 8:29 am
The interesting thing is that between the 8th and 24th of a particular month they are pretty much never matching anyway.
If you look at last month the referrals went out on about April 4 and we didn’t hear that they had started matching until April 29th. Would be easy to conclude that not matching between the 8th and 24th will have no impact on referrals. Of course I know better than to conclude anything on this subject.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:30 am
RQ,
The “box” currently says “through the 9th”. I have been under the assumption that this meant that the 9th was included. Is this correct? With a LID of 1/12, I am keeping my fingers crossed that we are in this month. Otherwise our travel may be involved in the downtime during the Olympics. Thanks for keeping us posted. We will be checking in more than we probably should today.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:37 am
mlb75,
It is truly hard to keep the hope. I share your sadness. Our agency sent out a letter yesterday putting such a positive spin on China and “reason to hope things will speed up.” Frankly, I do not see it.
Pray that after the Olympics bigger batches will come. What is most frustrating is that we were told the wait may take longer perhaps even three years, only after we were logged in and 2 years had already passed. We can’t have a foster child, we can’t keep our dossier in China and adopt another child without China being on hold for an uspecified “reasonable amount to time between”, we have passed the age limit for some countries since we have waited 2 years and 3 months… Our lives go on, but in some respects it has been put on hold.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:42 am
An agency in France is saying that 12th (included) is the cut off.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:49 am
As much as I hate this wait, I feel extremely sad for people who adopted from Vietnam. The program has shut down as of this Monday. I know people who have been waiting 18 months. They have no other children. I will take a 4 year wait, no more complaints here. As long as we eventually get our baby girl in the end, that is all I care about. As far as another 3 day batch, I expected it. Until September, this is all I expect. I really do believe in my heart that after the March group is referred in 2009, we will get our child in 2011. God Bless and my prayers go out to the Vietnam families. LID 1-17-07
April 29th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Sometimes an agency tells their (for instance) 12th LID people that they are included. That doesn’t mean the cut off is the 12th, it just means the 12th is included. It could be that the cut off is the 15th, but since that agency’s next LID group isn’t until the 20th, for the purposes of that agency, the 12th is all they know about.
So, we now have two agencies saying the 12th is in this batch. One of them is saying the 12th is the cut off, I don’t know how the other agency is wording it.
This makes it very likely that the 12th will be included in this batch, and a possibility that the 12th is the cut off.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:52 am
May batch has been smaller the past 2 years so my thoughts are (and these are only my thoughts) that the 12th is probably pretty accurate. Anything past that is gravy.
Very happy to hear about only 2 weeks of no matching or TA’s. With rumours last year of it being months long, 2 weeks is great! We knew the Olympics would affect adoptions somehow and 2 weeks seems like a best case scenario. It’s great to have some good news! Thanks RQ!!
April 29th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Why is everyone talking about the Vietnam thing as if it is new? The State Department has been warning of this for a while, I talked about it back on March 20th.
It’s been this way for a while, if you aren’t already matched with a child or very very close to being matched, then it’s probably not a good idea to proceed. I guess they are making it official now, saying no new dossiers after July 1, but people have been being warned for a while now to not get started there, so it’s really not new.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:12 am
As to the Olympics, referrals, TA’s etc, until the CCAA issues an official statement, it’s all just blah-blah-blah. For over a year it’s been speculation and no facts, and all contradictory, so we really know nothing anyway. If referrals don’t pick up in the months after the Olympics, then what will it be blamed on?
LID 1-12-2006
April 29th, 2008 at 9:16 am
This “almost mama” is holding her breath and crossing her fingers and toes that we will hear something soon.
Emily
LID 1/11/06
http://www.ladybughappenings.blogspot.com
anti spam bottles, can’t wait to buy some for that matter make some formula…
April 29th, 2008 at 9:19 am
RQ,
I agree with you but there was a couple at a meeting who had no idea what was going on. I am always up to date on all IA news, not just China. If you go by just what the agency tells you, believe me, you have no idea. Like I said, there was a couple with a 4-12-07 LID who don’t think they will wait longer than early 2010.They were from China!! All they know is the wait is 24-30 months. They don’t understand that at that time there were 38,000 dossiers before them. Agencies out there are not telling people the complete truth about this situation.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:25 am
I echo p12’s “Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!”
And I will BLAH. re: the jan. 12…
Lisa.
LID: 12.20.06
April 29th, 2008 at 9:41 am
I agree with Windthrow…matching often does not happen until much after the 20th each month anyway. Likely there will be no activity at the CCAA between Aug 8th-24th as they will want to keep as many people out of the down town core as possible in Beijing. When I was in China, I heard that travel would not be allowed in the month of August and that TAs would be held back at least for August…but that referrals would continue,albeit slowly (don’t know how slow).
As for the estimate of the cut-off…yup, I would think the 12th would be about it…UGH..as usual..Congrats to everyone receiving referrals this month…
April 29th, 2008 at 9:50 am
I think people are discussing the Vietnam issue because it’s new to some people. A friend of mine is very close to her referral from Vietnam. She was very well informed. Still, when the news hit the mainstream media she was bombarded with questions, comments, etc.
Yesterday was a very hard day for her.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:21 am
And the hits just keep on coming….. With a 9/20/06 LID we have 254 days of people ahead of us. If they do 3 days a month that will take 7 more years; 5 days = 4.2 years; 7 days = 3 years. That’s absolutely ridiculous.
There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that China can sustain this amount of limited adoptions. I believe that these 3-5 day batches will continue until September and then we’ll see 10-12 day batches, still not great, but it would cut the time to about 2 more years for us.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Not sure it effects the size of the May batch, but there is a public holiday, Labour Day, observed at this year from 1 - 3 May. Generally public and private companies in China work the weekend before to allow folks a week long holiday period.
Let’s hope the matching is finished before CCAA closes for the holiday.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:25 am
If the cut off is the 12th are they saying they are done matching and they could only get to the 12th, should we expect to see they are mailed in a day or two?
waitingforbbsis
1/11 next!?
April 29th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Oh my gosh….dare I really believe that I might be in???
Come on referrals!
April 29th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Congratulations to everyone who will be seeing their babies soon!!!!
Sorry to see that it is still status quo.
Wendy
http://adoptionandfire.typepad.com
April 29th, 2008 at 10:50 am
WAAHHH! I hate these early, pessimistic rumors that (seemingly) always turn out to be accurate!!!! MattandHeather, I am right there with you (except my LID is 11-09-06 which puts me something like two years after you for referral at this rate!) I keep telling myself that something’s got to give, but lately I can’t help but think that “something” is that the program will shut down completely. I have no clue why it is so slow, but if it is that China will just not allow as many IA’s as in the past, that’s got to be the logical conclusion. :(
April 29th, 2008 at 10:52 am
China - Hey at least we made RQ’s chart, even if it the horrid case. It could have been worse. (Trying to be optimissic today. Those words were so hard to type.)
Vietnam - I think yesterday was a hard day for many families. We all held out hope, to the bitter end, that an agreement would be reached. DH and I have been in both programs at our agency for 11 months, knowing that we would only complete one adoption. We made it down to #2 on the list for a referral from Vietnam, so close, yet so far.
I don’t think anybody is saying that it was “new news” that the state department had issued warnings or that the Vietnam program was in trouble. But when it become official it is aways hard.
All I have to say is atleast Vietname is being definate and not stringing us along, in uncertitanty. (Now that sounds more like my internal voice today. LOL)
April 29th, 2008 at 11:02 am
It makes sense to me (although I don’t like it) that referral batches would be small between now an the Olympics. This way smaller groups of people will be going to China over the next few months to adopt their children. So when it comes time to this halt in issuing TAs during Aug. there won’t be very many people actually waiting for them. By belief is that there will be larger batches of babies referred after the Olympics, but not the kind of speed up we all have been hoping for.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:08 am
MattandHeather-
Try not to calculate time on this 3-day batch. It’s among the smallest and, by no means, an average. It’s going to be EXTREMELY SLOW through the summer and, unfortunately, we have no choice but to ride that out. After the summer, however, I believe fullheartedly that we’ll start to see a gradual increase in the number of referrals. 30-day batches, probably not. But even if we can get them up to 10-12 day batches (not impossible), I think the wait will be much more reasonable.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:53 am
My agency just emailed me and said that we may make this May referral. If we don’t and instead receive a June referral, we will be traveling after the Olympics rather than before or during them.
LID 1/16/08
http://www.waitingfornatalie.blogspot.com
April 29th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I don’t mean to be provocative but do we have any reliable information that there will be a slight speed up after olympics? The CCAA said no changes due to olympics and now something about closing for 2 weeks. fine. This slow down has been going on for years. What makes us think that anything will change? Agencies? The CCAA? Not them–remember how they hoped to get to 15 day batches last January? They do a lot of hoping which is sweet but its not the stuff upon which one could make educated predictions. I do hope there is a speed up, I just wonder why we all think it might happen. I know, I know. It’s been covered in the forum. Sigh.
April 29th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
my lid is January 12,i am in this batch or no,every night i cant sleep
Ciro and Mary
April 29th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I can hardly believe that it is coming very close to the 1 year mark for when we received our referral in 2007 and so pathetic that in all this time they have only made it from Nov. 05 to Jan 06. I know for those of you waiting it is actually physically painful looking at the dismal numbers - it was for me - and having it all be completely out of your control and worst of all you are lucky if the people you are paying to help you adopt can give you even a shred of info. over all the months of waiting. My heart goes out to all of you stuck in this horrible situation. It is a daily struggle that people not in it can’t even begin to understand.
April 29th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
correction - my LID is 1-16-06
April 29th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
kmyrah,
That sounds good. Can you provide RQ with the details of your agency and so on, so she can keep track of all the rumors. You can find how in the right upper corner of the blog under contact info.
April 29th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
I cannot wait for August 24 to be here. My husband and I were initially looking forward to the Olympics because we planned on traveling to China for the event. At some point we realized we could not time adoption and the Olympics and well, there is no way we can afford two trips to China.
Now, I just want the Olympics to be over so that I can see if there will be any changes to adoption from China.
Here is still wishing for a big batch. Hold on January 06 LIDs, you are very close.
LID June 07
April 29th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
family2b - I sent her an email