Projections
Even though this batch was only for three days, there were more babies referred this month than last month.
Hey, I’m trying to put a positive spin on it, and that’s the best I can do right now.
One other thing to note: I’ve seen a few people saying things like, “last year my agency was getting referral batches of X number at a time, and this year it is about the same, so things are the same for my agency this year as they were last year, there has not been a decrease for them”. But that isn’t the question to ask. Of course the agency’s batch numbers are about the same, since nothing much had changed to make their LID groups shrink back in early 06. The question to ask is how often are they getting referrals. If it was every month two years ago, and then every other month last year, and is now every third or fourth month, then their numbers aren’t the same anymore. The CCAA doesn’t split LID groups up, they just take longer in between referring from one to the next.
And now, on to the projections. First we’ll take a historical look of how the raw numbers have fallen. This chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that you can’t compare numbers from different polls. It’s like looking at a citywide map and statewide map and trying to say that an inch on this one took ten minutes so an inch on that one should take ten minutes. It doesn’t work. Still, you can get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone.
You also need to have an idea of how previous months have gone on the Horrid/Bad/Mid/Good case scenarios. And, I have a request: Can we please, pretty please, not have another discussion about the labels I’m using. The horse is dead, we can stop beating on him. If you are new to this then I’m sure you don’t get why we’re using these labels. But it worked out this way over the course of several years and changing the labels would be like rearranging what constitutes an inch. It’s a measure of rule and it is what it is. Use the chart to get an idea of what has happened in recent history, and know that once upon a time the good case wasn’t considered impossible.
And finally, here are my projections:
And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:31 am
RQ…there is a typo in the last table..Feb 28 should be Jan 28
May 6th, 2008 at 10:31 am
RQ,
I think you meant Jan 28th for your July horrid case…. and again, thanks for your analysis.
Matt
May 6th, 2008 at 10:32 am
jinx, you owe me a coke windthrow
May 6th, 2008 at 10:46 am
RQ~
In the past you’ve said that you like to do a new poll when referrals are about 3-4 mos from completing the one you have. Does that mean you’re planning on doing a new poll next month maybe? Just curious as the current one only goes through 2/12 –a fact I’m very aware of with my 2/13 lid.
Thanks for the graphs! They are helpful as always.
susan
May 6th, 2008 at 10:51 am
RQ, with a 1/13/06 LID NEXT finally to get a referral, can you give me your thoughts on traveling in July before the olympics, do you see us traveling in July? Thanks Lisa
May 6th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Thanks guys, I fixed it. :)
Lisa - that is a question for your agency, as I’m betting that some agencies are going to make their people wait and some will try to get them pushed through ahead of the Olympics. It also kind of depends on how quickly TA’s get returned, too. So they won’t be able to give you a definite, but you’ll at least get an idea of their thoughts on how they want to handle things.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Oh, and yes, I’m going go do another poll. If things at work stay slow I hope to have it up this afternoon.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Wow, you really think 11 days worth of referrals would fall into the horrid case? Or am I looking at that wrong? (I’m looking at the June line).
May 6th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Thank you for the hard work you do for us, RQ.
I like your projections, they are much more optimistic than mine. Also curious about the next poll with a 3/1/06 LID.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:13 am
RQ–can you give us the numbers of dossiers that you count for horrid, bad, mid, good? I counted them from the 1/8 poll and got 152 for June horrid and 88 for July horrid and 115 for August horrid. Is there a special horrid reason for July horrid being so very very horrid?
Thanks. Can’t wait for the new poll.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:19 am
fjm, when there are two polls involved I use both of them, not just one of them. And I have to move my numbers some from poll to poll, obviously, so giving out specific numbers just confuses things six months from now when we are using a different poll and people are trying to use an old number.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:42 am
ckhunter - CNY fell in those 11 days, so yeah, we could see a batch that size. Remember, it’s not number of days, it’s how many people are logged in on those days.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Wow, I like June’s horrid project - I hope we get to 1/23 in a few weeks. Looking forward to the new poll to see how the first half of March 2006 looks day by day.
3/14/06
May 6th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Hi Everyone!
I was hoping that someone may know the answer to this. Where can I find out if there is a set income level is for being eligible to adopt twins? Thank you for your help
May 6th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Thanks RQ. I suspected there was a lot of “higher” math going on! I was trying to be a good doobee and use only one poll! Thanks so much for the projections. They are better than mine so I will keep my fingers crossed.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:49 am
RQ - thanks for explaining about the agency’s bathes vs. how many LID’s they are getting referred each month. That makes sense and I had not thought of that.
YAY! We have two couple friends in town with 1/23 LID’s - I am so excited for them!! Two more families to re-live all the referral/travel excitement through, and two more babies meeting their forever families (or maybe 3 more babies - one couple requested twins!)
Tracy
May 6th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Thanks RQ! Your “horrid” is more optimistic than mine-
Us “Marchers” are ready for a poll with our #’s- we are all here and ready to vote!! Bring it on!
Thanks for all you do, once again. I rely on this site, and have come to terms with when our referral might be- because, there is just no way around it- its might long!
May 6th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Please, please go to the end of March for the poll!!
(Did I say pretty please??)
May 6th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
shamrock,
I had emailed my agency yesterday and she said that China imposed new restrictions on that and one of them is that you cannot have any children at all, even grown. You have to have a income of 100,000 and a net worth of 400,000 and there was something else in there. I guess a lot of people from what she said were asking for twins.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Rq like Mybabygirl say : your projections are much more optimistic than mine …
To my mind the best we can expect is 19 january and the poor 16 january.
Perhaps because I stop dream since a long time …
Severine lid 24 jan 06
May 6th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
RQ,
I can see where Ladeeesquire is coming from. You have some past polls for monthly LIDs. I always like to look at the more detailed polls and compare (not for calculating, just looking for trends) to the monthly polls. It is hard to do that when the polls end mid month. Is there anyway you could stop the new poll at the end of a month? My guess is that polls are limited by the capabilities of the program, but I just thought I would ask. Thanks for doing the polls…they really add a lot.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Another question RQ…..is there any kind of poll you could do that could account for families switching from NSN to SN or for families who are dropping out? :( I am certainly not a pollster, but can tell that the number of families moving out of the NSN category is most likely to become more significant in the near future…if not already.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Koreaandchina,
Do you know, if for twins, a couple with no children together qualifies if the man has grown children from a previous marriage?
We qualify on all you mentioned and requested twins, but not sure about the stepbabies?
Thank you!
2-24-06
May 6th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
wow….I am surprised to see the 23rd make it to the Horrid Case for June. (Pleasantly surprised!) I am going to try not to get my hopes up and was freaking out even thinking I would get a referral in July. I am at work and can’t log in to the January room….darn! I may have to run home at lunch so I can check in with my January peeps.
1/23/06
May 6th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
luvluv:
I have heard of at least one couple that were referred twins and the husband had older kids from a previous marriage.
proud new mom to Jiangxi twins Eleanor and LilyKate!
DOR 5/2/08
May 6th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Hi Everyone
Thanks for the answers. I really appreciate all the help on this website. Hopefully we will get there one day!!!
LID 06/02/2006
May 6th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
luvluv:
i was told yesterday by my agency that. I’ll post it here what she said.
Hi Cindy,
Because so many people started requesting twins, the CCAA put some pretty strict guidelines on who could have twins. One of them is that the family can have no other children at all, even grown children. So unfortunately with your daughter that rules you out.
The other restrictions are age (both parents under 45), income (over $100,000), net worth (over $400,000) and length of marriage. They aren’t specific about what the length of marriage has to be other than “long enough.” Obviously these restrictions ruled out most families! I am surprised that a family received a referral of twins without requesting them. Generally it seems we’ve had more than one family in each LID group requesting them (before new guidelines).
As far as taking you out of line, it would’ve depended on whether your dossier had been reviewed yet or not. Since yours probably hasn’t, you would’ve been okay. If it had, it would’ve slowed you down.
Hope this helps you luvluv.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Wahoo! Your horrid case is looking great RQ! Routing for horrid case or better!
Thanks for ALL you do RQ!!
May 6th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Hey RQ - Very Pleasantly Surprised by your new projections. Can you shed any light as to how you are getting all the way to the 23rd for June. My Predictions (of course not as scientific - just counting LIDs) would have us at the 19th.
Love to know how you do it (especially with an LID of 1/24) !!
Oh my - mama is my anti spam - this is a first for me!!
May 6th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
Thanks RQ!!
May 6th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Dear Shamrock,
I guess the criteria is varying for twins. We have been told by our agency that the criteria is as such: Income/single or combined > $300,000 -taxes, assets over > $1,000,000, committment for over one year LOA in childcare and be childless.
Hope this helps….if in doubt I would asking specifically with your agency and adoption worker…
May 6th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
I will be jumping up and down and saying wheeee if then nex batch has more than 9 days in it.
Based on last year’s numbers (may to may) the average LID days per month is roughly 5.8 or so.
11 or 12 days would mean that we would be seeing double the average.
Personally, I will just be seeing double.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:05 am
According to the last poll results it would be 152 LIDs to bring us to Jan 23. That seems extremely high given that the last few months only resulted in 102, 79 and 107 LIDs referred (using the last poll). Even with CNY that is a very large difference. I thought that with CNY on 29 Jan 06 it would be the low numbers in early Feb that reflected their slowdown. It seems like 18 or 19 Jan would be more in line with what CCAA has been doing recently.
Cheers to all
LID 2/9/06