Attrition - gathering data
It is time to look at attrition again.
Please email me the following, if you know it:
- Your agency
- Your LID (please spell the month out, so give it to me like January 25, 2007 or 25 January 2007)
- How many people started out in your LID group with your agency.
- How many people are left waiting for a NSN referral in your LID group with your agency.
Since we don’t name agencies on the board, please don’t leave the information in the comments. You’ll need to email the information to me at rumorqueen aat gmail dott com. Here are some questions I’m sure I’ll get, so I’ll go ahead and answer them now:
- If someone has adopted elsewhere but has not pulled out, then they are still waiting for a NSN referral.
- If someone has adopted elsewhere and pulled their file, then they are not still waiting for a NSN referral.
- If someone has adopted SN and been allowed to keep their NSN dossier in place, then they are still waiting for a NSN referral.
- If they adopted SN and had to pull their NSN referral, then they are not waiting for a NSN referral.
- If they are open to SN if the right child comes along, then they are still waiting since they have not pulled their dossier yet.
I know some of those points may seem obvious, but people will ask the questions, so I’m answering them. The idea I’m trying to convey is that point four is asking how many people are left in your original LID group that are still waiting for a NSN referral.
I need your agency’s name to make sure we don’t duplicate information. If one person says, “I’m with XYZ agency with a LID of May 6, 2007 and there were 23 families but now there are 19″, but I hear from two people who say, “I’m with XYZ agency with a LID of May 6, 2007 and there were 24 families but now there are 17″, then I know to listen to the two and not the one. But if I don’t have agency names then I’d think that was two different agencies.
When I report for this data I won’t give out individual agency information. The reporting will show a conglomerate of all the information and agency names will not be used. You can go here to see how the reporting looked the last time we did this. I am not going to split out US from non-US this time, nor am I going to split out concurrent allowed vs concurrent not allowed. I’ll just show the total and then break it down by periods of time.
Please, if you have pulled out, do not email me that you have pulled out. I can’t do anything with that information. The only information I can use are the hard numbers we get by knowing how the LID groups started and how they are now.
It is impossible to do a yes/no poll to gather this information from here. Most of the people who have dropped out of the program are no longer coming to the site, so they won’t respond to a poll. If I create a poll that asks if you are still in the program or if you have pulled out, then the people still coming will be the ones voting, so we won’t get accurate percentages. I realize there are some who have pulled out who still drop by occasionally, but not enough to make a poll anywhere close to being accurate.
For the people who know the status of their LID group, those are hard numbers we can use. So if you have the information, please share it. If you don’t, that’s okay. I know some agencies guard this information like it’s some kind of nuclear secret or something.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:59 am
As a point of discussion, last time we did this the total was 18%.
What do you think it’s going to be this time?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Hmm… Undoubtly higher - 35-30%, maybe? Total guess. Last time we did this my agency seemed a bit closed about providing that info, stating most people were staying in line. Still, I know from our Yahoo agency LID group people have accepted SN, and I’m guessing others have dropped out. Since my agency seems a bit closed with this info, I’m really interested in what you come up with, RQ. As always, thanks for the number crunching!
May 9th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Thanks for all you do RQ. Funny, I don’t need to talk to anyone but DH about our adoption because I come and and talk and listen. My guess attrition will be around 26 to 30 percent. Perhaps the elephant in the room is that CCAA is not all that unhappy about attrition? Particularly those that drop out for whatever reason and pull their file? Just another one of “those” theories. Certainly a plausible explanation from them should there be a slightly higher and more consistent number of referrals in each batch in the future. They can just say a lot of people dropped out. I know that some of us don’t buy into the post Olympics changes. I am one of the people that does believe we will see some changes in late 2008 and early 2009. May not be a huge speed up though.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Our agency does guard information closely and although frustrating at times when I want to do my own analysis, I do appreciate their trying to protect our privacy. With that said, they do encourage families to join chat groups based on the month of their DTC/LID. The March 2006 LID group (which not all families joined) has had about 1/3 of the families adopt SN and withdraw their dossiers for NSN. It will be interesting to see what is reported to the RQ and whether or not this sampling is representative of others.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:54 am
This is a topic that always causes me such mixed emotions. I wish there was some way to hear from families who have dropped out and know that they did so because they found their beautiful children elsewhere. I would hate to think that families are giving up due to lost hope, self-imposed age limits, or other factors that would leave them without a child. No one should have to do that. There has to be enough children in this world, wherever they may be, to fill every family longing for a child. If anyone is planning on giving up, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE seek out every option possible.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:30 am
FindingHope - Well said. It’s easier to focus on the numbers,statistics, etc., because thinking about the individuals dropping out is heartbreaking. I hope those dropping out are doing so because they have already accepted a SN referral, or have adopted elsewhere, but I know much of the attrition represents difficult decisions at best, and broken dreams at worse, and my heart goes out to those making tough choices.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:53 am
RQ, I hope you are successful in getting accurate information from the majority of agencies. We didn’t have a clue how many were in our LID group until referrals came. Our agency didn’t (and still doesn’t as far as I know) release that information to us.
I wonder how many other agencies follow a similar rule.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
I bet it will be still under 20% … anyone who was putting-up with things then, they are probably in it for the long-haul.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I know of 3 people who dropped out, but they do not belong to internet forums. One family decided that they
already had 3 bio children, and decided that they would be grateful for what they had, and hoped that it might speed up one family somwhere in the future. One family has a referral from Ethiopia and the other just bearly bought their baby home from Guatemala before the close down. All
May 9th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
what email address do we mail the info to?
May 9th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Thanks for doing this RQ. The results will be extremely interesting!!
I don’t know about percentages but my WAG is that attrition will have more of an affect on the 2nd half of 06 and later LIDs so it’ll continue to be a slow crawl until then at least.
I think the mid 06 LIDs and earlier are in the “so close yet so far” camp, maybe have explored options [if they have any] and are dug in for the long haul. Well, that’s my situation anyway!!
TLamb, RQ’s address is in her post above. It’s rumorqueen@gmail.com
May 9th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
This is off subject.
But if anyone who has been questioned in review and file moved back, please could you let me know. This has been bothering me all day. And if it does happen. That means we will be moved a couple months back, which means alot of time added on to our wait. According to the charts it could be 2011 before we get our child.
I just don’t know anymore. These ups and downs are sooo hard:(
I wold just love to get a straight answer from my agency. I think they are being honest. But after awhile its hard not to question things. KWIM?
LID 5/12/06
May 9th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
This was very appropriate as I sent our letter into our agency to withdraw from China. After another three day batch and 4/07 LID, we had enough. We have been contemplating this for months now. The stress and anxiety has taken a huge toll on us physically and mentally. We have chosen another country and will be mailing our application off on Monday. I was sad in the beginning because I too, like so many others felt such a calling for China. However, that truly has subsided. I just want my daughter and where she comes from does not matter. I feel a sense of freedom and peacefulness that I haven’t felt in months.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
chloesmommy,
I am so happy that you are feeling at peace. How long do you think it will be before you get your daughter?
We had considered switching as well. But we were told we would more than likely get our baby next year. Now I seriously don’t know. The stress is reallly beginning to take its toll on me. I would just love to know if our file will definately be moved back. If so, I think I may consider switching. I know my agency doesn’t want me to switch. But at this point we are really considering it. But if we knew we would get our baby next year or early 2010 I could deal with that.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Attrition. Such a small word, yet it packs a wallop on a personal level.
We haven’t pulled our file. For the moment we’re going to wait and see the numbers near the end of 2008.
If we do pull out, I guess it’s because of “self imposed age limits” as FindingHope said in a previous post.
I’m a would-be first time dad and currently 45 years old. Never had kids, never so much as changed a diaper. We decided in 2005 to take the plunge and bring a child into our lives through IA. At that time, the predicatbility and relatively good health of the children were what brought us to adopt from China. Also at the time we were consistently told the delays were ‘about a year or so.’
The end of this month will mark 2 years from our LID, and by my calculations I recon we’re at least 24 months from referral. That puts us in 2010, 4 years of waiting, a baby room that will have been sitting empty for at least 3 years.
People tell me to hang in there, that age is not that relevant, that heck, even 48 is not too old to start raising a child. Personally, I’m not so sure.
I think there is a season for everything in life. My problem is I don’t know how to tell the season has passed.
I worry that if I hang in there too long, I’ll become a burden to my kid. I worry about the best interests of the child, not the best interest of myself.
I am sure there are folks older than me who are terrific parents and can do everything they need to do so their kids grow up safe and secure. But I will confess that I have a nagging doubt in the back of my head that asks me if choosing to become a parent at 47 or 48 is pushing the envelope too much. What will my child’s life be like as we age?
I just don’t know. I know I am not ready to pull out, but I suspect at some point my DW and I may have to re-evaluate what we’re going to do.
This is not a ‘one size fits all’ kind of thing. It’s different for everybody and every situation.
Right now, I’m just sad, looking at a stuffed animal I bought at FAO Schwartz back in 2005 and wondering if I will ever have a little one to play with it.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
We are DTC July ‘06 and desperately looking for another program to switch to. We were paperchasing for Vietnam when that program fell apart. The 3-day referral batch sent us over the edge too! Our daughter is now 4 years old, and getting older each day. We wanted her and her sister to be closer in age so they could grow up together. Not to mention the fact that we are getting older too! This has been a nightmare that I just want to wake up from. We will be gone from China as soon as we can find another program we feel reasonably comfortable with. Good luck to all who stay. Their children are precious and it will be worth it.
May 10th, 2008 at 12:28 am
Firstkid - we have been home with our daughter several months now. We are in our mid 40s and most of the families we travelled with were older. There were parents over 50 in our group. We have friends doing IVF with donor eggs and they are much older than we are. I understand your concerns but don’t let age be the reason for backing out. You won’t be the oldest parents out there… beleive me.
Good Luck. It will be worth the wait :-)
May 10th, 2008 at 12:48 am
First Kid-
I say hang in there!
Most of our group is over 40!!!! I was thrilled to know that there were some wise people that will be traveling with us. : )
I know the journey is different for everyone and we all have decisions to make along the way-there is no right or wrong answer but I say HANG IN THERE-I think you will have your baby in early 2009. Call me crazy!
Best of luck to everyone-may you find your child wether it be China or not!
Ready for another batch…..COME ON CHINA-Show us some LOVE! Spam: Beijing-UH! The Olympics-hurry up and END.