Preliminary Poll Results
I keep the LID polls open from referral day to referral day, so this one isn’t closed yet, I’m just posting the preliminary results.
When I compare this poll to the last poll the numbers are fairly similar for all but a couple of dates. I’m not sure why January 26th is so different, but it is.
The end of the last poll shows a phenomena that I’ve seen before: People get upset that they only missed the poll by a few days so they vote at the end of the one that is there. You’ll note that February 10th (the last weekday on the old poll) and February 12th (the last day on the old poll) show much smaller numbers on the current poll.
With that in mind, is March 13th really as big as it looks on the new poll? Good question.
I’ve been tempted to not put the last day in and just put in “My LID falls within a week of the poll and I really want to vote” for the final response. Since we can’t really rely on that last entry, I guess I may as well.
If you have not voted in this poll and your 2006 LID falls within the parameters of the poll, then please go here to vote.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Thanks RQ,
I am anxious to see after March ‘06. I heard that if things don’t speed up right away after the Olympics, some people also said they expect thing to get better after March is done?????? Maybe smaller groups? Don’t really know what to think right now. I would love some “happy news” by Christmas. Family members don’t even bring up China any more. Maybe they think it will upset us, or maybe it won’t really happen at all.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Thanks, RQ!!
I’m a bit of a numb3rs g33k myself so I have been tracking the LID poll as it’s been changing and comparing to the prior poll. I had made the same educated guess that the change in the Feb 12th # was due to people who just couldn’t stand not voting. I’ve had to fight the itch to vote on 3.13.06 because our LID is 3.14.06!!!!
I’ve also been playing with the numb3rs and labeled my categories as “likely” (which equals the “horrid”), “optimistic” and “WOW” in an effort to be as positive as I can.
Things have been put in perspective for me lately as we had friends that lost a son to SIDS and a week later my mom was diagnosed with breast cancer. While the prognosis is good it does make me anxious because I want my baby girl to get to spend as much time with her grandparents as possible and they’re not getting any younger!
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:36 pm
So RQ, Now that we have the new poll, do you think we could still see Jan 23 as the next cut-off?
I keep coming up with the 20th-
Thanks for the poll!
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
I’m also (like nancyclod above) all over this data and always look forward to updated polls. RQ, I know that the reliability of the data suffers if you go too far out on the timeline, but it would be so cool if we could have a parallel daily poll with the “next three columns”, i.e. starting at March 14th and running though about May 13th. THAT would be interesting data.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:48 pm
It is impossible to use a new poll until we’ve had at least one batch of referrals on it.
So, the new poll doesn’t do any good in predicting the batch we are waiting for.
Besides, it hasn’t even been open as long as the other polls yet. So it’s not complete.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Sorry Nancy, going 60 days out at a time is as far as we really need to go right now. If they ever pick back up to doing more days per batch then I’ll probably have to do more at a time, but right now there really isn’t a need to go farther out for forecasting purposes. Any forecasts done on data that far out would be pretty far off of what is actually likely to happen.
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Okay I’ve looked everywhere but I can’t find the latest (or any, for that matter) post about the number of RQ-ians who received referrals.
It’s a very simple grid that RQ puts together that says there were “x” number of referrals for a particular batch. Of course that only represents the people in this community.
Does anyone know what I’m talking about, and can you point me in the right direction?
Thanks!
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
I think you’re looking for this post metonda
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2008/05/06/projections-11/
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Hey RQ…need to know as I’m “getting so close I can taste it”…..please tell me that the LID’s showing from January 28-February 5th, 2006 are simply errors from people selecting the wrong date. Just with CNY being during that period in 2006 and the CCAA being closed I can’t imagine anyone having those LID’s. Right or wrong???
ChinaBabyBarnes
LID-Feb. 9/06
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
That’s exactly what I’m looking for.
Thanks, RQ
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Hi all,
We’re new here. Our LID is January 16, 2006. As we were scrolling through we noticed SanRN commenting on the next cut off date and asking about RQ’s date. How does one come up with this date? Is it based on the numbers? Still learning…
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Guess I was nervous…our ACTUAL LID is January 19th!
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
RQ
Is it possible that 14 got inverted somehow in the last poll to 41? If so, the poll numbers would match up.
Cheers to all
LID 2/9/06
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
RQ -I too am curious about the question ChinaBabyBarnes and metonda raise as well…and what of Sunday January 12, 06…I know that reducing the total by 15 may not make an enormous difference - then again, an additional 30 days’ wait for referral is huge!
Thanks for everything!
LID 2.14.06
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:25 pm
I’m interested in how people get LIDs on weekends, and over the new year holiday?
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
ChinaBabyBarnes
Seems like we have the same LID
Cheers
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
It is not unusual for people to be logged in on the weekend. If someone is out sick then they must make the time up once they are well. Often that time is made up on the weekends.
I don’t know about the new year holiday, maybe a CCAA employee went in and worked to make some time up, or maybe a waiting family is confused about what their actual LID is.
As for a 14 and 41 getting transposed, that’s not possible since I take an image from the actual poll for the pictures, and since I copy and paste the poll data into my spreadsheet for my figuring. I don’t type any of it.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
RQ - could the difference on the 26th be the result of a small agency that had to close and all their referrals were moved up? Just a thought….
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:35 pm
RQ,
Curious about your thoughts of people voting at the end of a poll just to get in, I think you’re quirte right! I have a March ‘06 LID so took a peek at our internal group poll. It’s fairly close but just as you suspected the 13th is quite different. To be honest, not one single person on our poll (which has over 250 votes for the month of March) had recorded a LID of 03/13/06. Hmmmm…..itchy fingers to finally vote in one of your polls?
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 am
For what it’s worth… we had a DTC date of 1/27/2006 but documents were not received in China until 2/6/2006 because CCAA was closed for CNY. CCAA was closed 1/28 through 2/5/2006 so I really doubt there were any LID’s during that time. We were LID 2/28/06. At that time there was about a 1 month lag between DTC and LID. CCAA quickly shortened the gap so that by the end of March, families were receiving a LID within days of their DTC. So March 2006 is a larger month of LID’s because it includes the backlog from Jan and Feb 2006.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:27 am
Mmmm, I think there might be some twitchy fingers hitting the vote key on the 13th March check box…..when real LID is the 14th. Oh so tempted but I promise I did not vote.
May 23rd, 2008 at 7:11 am
We were DTC on 10-26-07 but only was LID on 11-23-07 so they did not shorten the gap for us. Besides that our SW took 10 months to complete our homestudy. She was always finding more for us to do…
Wish she would of went faster so we could of had a ealier LID but thats ok, the wait will be worth it in the end…
May 23rd, 2008 at 8:15 am
I know the gap narrowed and widened during the course of 2006. DTC-to LID was pretty quick for May 06 LIDS- for us the spread from DTC to LID was 7 days. I know a few people that were only 5 days. However- soon after I remember hearing that the gap was getting bigger again. Not sure why.
RQ- thanks for the poll again. I do always find it interesting to see the numbers- and I am so not a mathematical thinker- that you make it easy for me.
momtwoboys647- 10 months to do a HS? That is insane! I am sorry you were held up by your SW!!!!
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:10 am
Yes, I agree about the itchy fingers. No one on our DTC group voted as having a 3/13 lid, but the 14th is a pretty heavy day on our dtc board. For crying out loud, why can’t people just follow easy instructions.
May 23rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
How about adding an option to the poll for anyone with a LID after “X” date? It would give anyone who wanted to vote an option. Maybe that will keep those who just HAVE or WANT to included an option that won’t alter the data?
May 24th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
OK, I am NOT a numbers person, but I did some figurin’ Jethro style this morning. (Beverly Hillbillies…) I averaged out about how many babies are referred from these polls each month, then added up all the families waiting in the current poll (yes, including all the sticky finger post-March 13thers, although I also noticed the poll in our room is quite different!). So it appears to me that it will take 7.66 (or 8) months to get through March 13th. Does that seem right for any reason at all, or am I just making stuff up? :)
May 25th, 2008 at 2:50 am
Momtwoboys647 —
I am confused why there was such a lag between your DTC and LID? Our DTC was 11/02/07 and LID was 11/14/07. Guess I am confused as to why ours was sent later & yet logged in earlier than yours?! If it helps we are now out of the NSN line, having accepted referral of a SN baby girl & received the L.O.A. on 05/19/08 (67 days).