- Travel Approvals from the most recent batch of referrals began arriving yesterday.
- Two agencies now report that matching has begun.
We heard rumors on the last batch that they were complete about a week before they seem to have been mailed. It appears those rumors, saying they had to wait to be signed, were probably true.
I haven’t seen anything on a possible cut off date yet.
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June 26th, 2008 at 7:47 am
It’s nice to finally see an early rumor and a good one at that!!
June 26th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Love those rumors. Come on referrals.
June 26th, 2008 at 8:26 am
I don’t know which is harder. The shallow breathing or not be able to breathe at all… Either way, this feels so good!
peace
fm
LID: 1-27-06
http://www.alyzabethan.blogspot.com
June 26th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Wow, I’m amazed at how fast this has been. I wasn’t expecting a rumor until next week and referrals for about another 2 to 2.5 weeks. I was just thinking, wouldn’t it be great if the post olympic speed up was beginning to happen now! Last month the batch size was slightly above average. Average being about 90 lids and it covered about 104. I’m expecting this batch to only cover about 4 days and anything more than that would indeed be a speed up. It would look like the speed up was happening before the olympics not after and it would negate the accusations that things got better after the olympics. Next batch should cover many days bringing us well into February. I’m hopeful anyway!
June 26th, 2008 at 9:43 am
What happes at CCAA between the referrals being posted out and the beginning of matching for the next set?
June 26th, 2008 at 10:42 am
What is the last date in Jan for LIDS ? my agency only has
dates up to Jan 23 I was just curious if this might finish up
the month of JAN 06.
Kim
LID 10-19-06
June 26th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Kim,
I know my agency has LIDs up to January 27th.
June 26th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Yes, jan 27th is the last day with lids. ccaa was closed for cny 1/28-2/5.
2/6 is kind of a big day but not huge it doesn’t seem. They certainly did not process all the dossiers from before cny immediately upon return. We were dtc 1/20 and were not lid until 2/13.
The reason I say this is that on chinaadoptionforecast, they said that they didn’t think that the empty days during cny were relevant, I think they were to a certain extent.
Good luck to all who have a chance for this month!!
susan
http://www.crowellgang.blogspot.com
June 26th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Angelynn,
If I’m not mistaken, CCAA has to handle all of the referral responses and prepare the TAs.
June 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Oh if it were only true that they would complete the month of January……. what a dream, but it’s nice to dream, eh ?
lid 3/28/06
June 26th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
I really think they COULD finish January…..is they wanted too- the #’s are not that bad!!
This is really getting exciting!! TA’s in 2 weeks! Wow!!!
June 26th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
How exciting to hear this…
I was wondering how do you know how many days were log in days for CCAA? I wanted to calculate the difference between where they are now and where I am.
LID 11-23-2007
Thank you
June 26th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
I seem to recall a while back - like February - that there was a rumor the CCAA would only get thru 2 mos in 2008. That they’d finish January in June and February in December. They’re almost on track for that now.
June 26th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
momwannabe-
my prediction goes like this:
2008-January and February, 2006
2009-March
2010-April, May, June
2011-July, August, September
2012-October, November, December
2013-December, January, 2007
2014-January, February, maybe March
2015-March, early April
which means I won’t be getting a referral until 2015 or later with a LID of April 23, 2007. Too pessimistic? I hope so…
June 26th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Lilysmom:
I hope you are being too pessimistic, but you might be right on. We switched to Ethiopia in December and hope to have a referral this year… we were LID for China in July, 2007 and didn’t want our bio boys to be too much older than their sister! My oldest is 8 so would be probably 15 or 16 by the time his sister arrives…don’t even want to think how old I would be! Yikes!
June 26th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Lilysmom2b,
So you think that it will take an entire year to get through March 06?
March 06 is that big?
Lisa.
LID: 12.20.06
June 26th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Lilysmom2b,
I REALLY hope you are wrong…if not, then there’s no way we will stay with this program. We are LID May 2007 and I am not going to pay to renew my paperwork that many times!!
June 26th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Does anyone know what the average # of days is between the first matching rumor and referrals actually being received? :0)
June 26th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
I think estimating that it would take 12 months to get through March is extremely pessimistic.
I believe RQ’s horrid case predictions have the first of March referrals before the end of 2008.
June 26th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
That is extremely pessimistic and probably incorrect. If we use RQ’s polls as a representative sample, it does seem China is giving about 600 referrals a month. Even with March being a high month, it looks like they should get through it by April or so. My husband knows how to do calculations based on statistical samples (he does it for a living in fact). We have an LID of April 11, 2006 and we’re confident based on past, present, and future LID samples that we should have our referral by May or June of ‘09 as long as China continues on this track. In fact, we’re extremely confident and he ran the numbers several times.
June 26th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
What kills me is I think back to almost 3 years ago when little things caused minor delays in getting our Dossier together. Like waiting a month for NY State fingerprint clearance, or our social worker typing our Homestudy on her 1958 typewriter and it taking forever, etc, etc. But back then we thought “7 month wait, no biggie. We better start painting the baby’s room…”
Oy vay, as we say in Italian ;)
Big D
March 2006
June 26th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
China4Ever, I’ve found it to be be around 7-10 days after the first matching rumor. I think only a few times it was maybe one day less but.
Kyleigh, I sure hope it turns out that way.
BigDaddy, I hear you. DH procrastinated about organizing time off work for his side of the paperwork. We ended up logging in about 10 months later than we… well, I wanted.
June 26th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Hey Kyleigh - I’m ready to accept your DH’s calculation! We’re logged in 3/28/06.
BigDaddy - I know exactly what you mean. It took us 9 months to get our dossier together and we had several setbacks.
As Homer Simpson says: “DOH!”
June 26th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
kyleigh:
I love data. In a prior life, before recently retiring to prepare for my new job as the SAHD, I was a certified six sigma yellow and green belt instructor and worked black belt projects. Data are my friend… :) I always liked running the numbers through minitab to see what popped so I like what you and the DH are doing. Wishing and hoping is one thing but data tells the tale.
peace
fm
June 26th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Lilysmom2b,
We think you are WAY off base. In fact, we beleive that there is going to be a speed up…..soon. Here are our reasons:
1. Last month is trending in the right way
2. China has not had the amount of travelers expected for the Olympics
3. The earthquake left many children without family
4. The birth rate has not dropped in the past many years
5. Applications to China are way down
6. Drop outs are on the rise
7. Non-one would wait 7 years for a child (unless they are like many of us who were told a year-14 months).
Our predictions:
Jan. 2006 July 2008
Feb. 2206
June 26th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Sorry!
Here are our predictions for Matches, not travel…..
Jan. 2006 July 2008
Feb. 2006 August 2008
Mar. 2006 October 2008
April 2006 December 2008
May 2006 February 2008
(2 months to match each month of 2006)
2007…..We think you will have your babies much sooner than you think!
With this said, maybe we are too hopeful, too positive but we believe that attitude is everything. If there are 30,000 people in the world waiting for babies from China and 90% of them are thinking the wait will get longer, that China will not do right by us or the children, that they will never be parents, etc. etc. then that is likely. BUT if 90% of us are POSITIVE, praying, meditating, hoping, etc. we will give off much better energy to China and the world!!!!!
Best to all of the Jan. 2006 LIDS, your wait is almost over.
Waiting with all of you, M&D
June 26th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
kyleigh - I’d love to see those calculations and where it puts us with a 7/23/2007 LID! I know you will probably be flooded with requests–but if you can…
Kelly
June 26th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
This is a little OT, but I learned that after the Olympics, Beijing is hosting the Para Olympics. Will this affect referrals or travel times?
June 27th, 2008 at 6:46 am
Kyleigh, as optomistic as your projections sound, I think they may perhaps be a bit too optimistic. On the China adoption forecast site, they also use the stats of which you speak, and yet they keep telling us that with a May ‘06 LID that we are looking at Apr 2010. Let’s hope your optimism is correct.
Big Daddy- We also are kicking ourselves for dragging our feet, so to speak. What’s a week here, a few days here, when you are just paperchasing….hindsight could have saved us about 6-9 months in waiting time….
It happened for a reason, says the Pollyanna voice in my head. HAH!
Cindy
Lid May’06
June 27th, 2008 at 7:44 am
lilysmom2be,
I think March will be done by summer ‘09. We should see Feb. referrals by this August and that month does not appear too big. Remember too that many people are confident that it will be better after the Olympics. Give it until the end of the year to see what happens. I know it is hard sometimes to be positive. Hang in there. It is almost July already. LID 1-2007.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Regarding the difference in time during the paperchase, I actually made the conscious decision to wait 2 months to submit my dossier. At the time, the turn-around was 6 months.I could have sent in my dossier in June, but chose to wait until August so that my referral would come in Feb/March and I would travel in April. I am a teacher (and single) and my logic was… If I travel in April, I’ll just take off the month of May and have the whole summer to be together and bond. Of course, my 6 month wait turned into 15 and my referral came in December instead…right in the middle of the school year.
I really wrestle with that decision to wait. On one hand, because of it, I have my daughter who is a perfect fit with me. On the other hand, had I received my referral earlier that spring, I would have made the cut-off to submit a dossier for a sister for her. As it is now, that is a impossibility.
Life is filled with “what-ifs”. It’s a nice place to visit once in a while, but I wouldn’t want to live there. Too depressing.
:-)
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
June 27th, 2008 at 8:08 am
hi kyleigh,
can you do prediction for 18/9/06
I know everyone will be asking you, but PLEASSSSSEEEEEEE
June 27th, 2008 at 9:16 am
dadin2007…I don’t care if you’re stats are too optomistic…who cares!! I love it!
It doesn’t hurt to be optomistic once in a while. I too think that things will pick up after the olympics. I’m getting the feeling that it is starting to pick up now.
Keep thinking those positive thoughts!
June 27th, 2008 at 9:30 am
I have no stats, but — I just have the feeling that things are going to speed up. Which is a refreshing change. We are LID 6/20/07 and I am starting to feel hopeful that this will actually happen! :)
June 27th, 2008 at 9:44 am
On Tuesday night my wife and I stop by parents house and what is hanging to the screen door, yes a ladybug.
Then last night, while doing some house work Laura spots another lady bug. This one is attached to an invitation card hanging on the refrigerator door. This card is for a gradutation party for my niece, the same niece who we have already picked to be the godmother for our daughter.
Please Lord may this be the sign of something good.
Matt and Laura,
10/13/06
June 27th, 2008 at 10:00 am
With a LID of 11-23-2007, we have a feeling (hoping) that our referall will come anytime between 04-2010 ans 12-2010…Hope this is right..
June 27th, 2008 at 10:19 am
I sure hope it speeds up we are Dtc today. Yeah. :)
June 27th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
With a LID of 07/20/07 our agency told us last week to most likely expect our referral in the summer of 2009. Oh, how I would love to believe that! They gave us lots of explanation as to why this would likely be true…time will tell. However, the bigger batch last time & the speed up with matching does give us a little hope. We have been through two failed domestic placements in the last year while we have been waiting for China. The last one just a couple of months ago. We had the little one for four days & then had to return her. It was & still is so hard. A little good news about China would so do us a world of good right now!
June 27th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Oh, BTW-that was my first time commenting here after almost a year plus of lurking. So, with that said I wanted to share our blog address as well so that anyone interested could stop by for a visit. Especially any July 07 LID’ers…All of us waiting need all of the support that we can get these days, huh?
http://www.journeytomialynn.blogspot.com/
June 27th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
I like what JourneytoMia’s agency is tell them! I get absolutely nothing from my agency..so I’m going with the more positive…with a LID 1-2007 that sounds good to me!
Ladybugs are common where I live, in fact you can buy them at the gardening store. I see one buzzing around several times a week, so taking that as another good sign.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
For all of you who asked my husband to run stats on your LID’s, he really can’t because RQ’s polls don’t go out that far. Sorry.
Again, we’re not talking about a speed up. China is doing roughly the same number of dossiers per month–his projection is based on that. Remember, CCAA can refer a ten day batch that has the same number of referrals as a two day batch. It’s not days, it’s numbers.
For those who said it was too optimistic, data based on representative samples is the best we can do. Still, if you prefer hearsay, remember someone posted a few months back that someone from CCAA said things will pick up in ‘09 and “we have to get through March first.” That’s doesn’t indicate a year to get through March, certainly.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
During our three-month-home visit (March 2008), our social worker stated that the adoption agency expected matches through LID Feb 2006 in 2008.
When I heard this, I speculated that CCAA was telling agencies in general terms what to expect in terms of matches through the end of 2008.
I do not know the source of this information, and the agency does not say anything unless it knows it as fact.
This is so frustrating… it’s impossible to know who-knows-what-and-when.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
our fingerprints will be expiring soon and we are lid 10/11/06 this will be our 3rd time fingerprinting and it has been such a long wait for us that we are debating if we can continue to hold on. We have no children and was hoping to have a family by now, we have been getting a bit of good news lately but we’re not sure if it is enough movement for us to continue holding on. We won’t be parents until 2012? from what i am hearing people predict and that was not in the quota when we had applied in 2006. Our family keeps telling us to hold on, your daughter will be in your arms sooner than you think, but we are not sure of anything anymore….. are we the only one’s that feel this way? can anyone who feels this way please respond and let us know how you have dealt with the decision of continuing on. We have seen no drastic changes since our lid and don’t believe that things will speed up .. help…..
June 27th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
JourneytoMia, that is the best news that I have heard re:wait times. We are LID March 07 and I didn’t even want to hope for 09. I’ve been trying to tell myself that when it happens it will be the right time even though I may not understand why now. My boys (13 and 11) are getting older (not to mention me!) and I so had different ideas about the age gap. But, we all should be hopeful and send positive thoughts to China like Dadin2007 said. He’s right - we should all as a group start sending those positive, good feeling, speed-up thoughts to China.
And, I’m so sorry about your loss with the baby. I know several people personally who had such things happen to them and it is heartbreaking, and one of the reasons we decided to go with China. And, btw, my agency reported in a newsletter earlier this year not to expect to see referrals for more than Jan and Feb 06, but that 09 would be better. They posted this early in the year and I was so upset thinking that 08 was pretty much written off, but now that I still see steady referrals I do feel better, and feel that their information is relieable.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
HawaiiGirl24, I think it is, of course, a very personal decision, based on how much you can take. In my case, I went through a really rough time in December. From the beginning I had it in my head that we would be bringing her home in February 08 for our 20 year anniversary. Of course, that came and went. Once I got over that MY timeframe wasn’t met, and that my boys would be teenagers and I will probably be the oldest Mom when I take her to pre-school, I thought about what else would I be doing? And for whatever reason, that seemed to calm me down and let me go on living now. When she gets here, she gets here. If you read the posts of people who now have their babies they say the wait resulted in their perfect match. So, she’s late… I can’t get out of the house on time… she’s already a little like me. There’s a great line in Moonstruck where Nicholas Cage tells Cher “I’m here” and she says “You’re late.” The wait is always there, but this site, and the fact that there has been steady progress is keeping me sane. For now. ;)
June 27th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
hawaiigirl24:
You are not alone. We had decided that this month was it-if no referral, we would give up or go into another program. We got the referral this month. However, in our travel group there were three families. One dropped out after a year, went into a domestic program, and had an infant within six months. I don’t know the details, though-if it was through the state, through private adoption, or what. I do know that they had no children and could not have any, and that at Christmas when we exchanged emails she said she had just spent the best five months of her life. I’m not telling you this to influence your choice, only to let you know that 1/3 of our travel group thought the wait was too long, and that it was almost 2/3 (if we had dropped out).
June 28th, 2008 at 3:29 am
We send our thanks to waiting for Megan & Ruby Hill for boosting our spirits, I think that we just need to take a deep breath and let things take it’s course. Like you said things happen in it’s own time and we just have to be patient. We thaught of leaving China for a domestic adoption a month ago, but for some reason i feel drawn to China and cannot let go… thanks again for the boost of confidence…
June 28th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
journeytomia - does your agency honestly believe their own timeframe? my jaw dropped when i read your post. to have nov07 lid w/ a referral next summer, the ccaa would have to do 21 months (counting from 2/06 so i’m leaving off the last 10 days of jan) in a year. i hope that you are taking their prediction as only a wild dream. as much as i wish it were true, it is just too far fetched.
June 28th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Like I said, I am not taking it for the gospel by any means. I want to believe it, but am not holding my breath. We are very anxious to get through the Olympics first & then to the end of January 09. We feel that both of those events/dates will be very telling. There has been so much talk about “after the Olympics” & so much talk about “come 2009…” So, we will see what happens. Our agency claims that in 09 there will be something like 50% less Dossiers. I don’t know who or what to believe. However, the email that they sent us did say that it was an educated guess based on current numbers, future numbers & current facts. The list of reasons & how they came up with this does make sense, but as you all know it is very hard to believe. So, with that we just hope for the best, expect the worse & keep on waiting for our Mia.
June 28th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Hi HawaiiGirl24, I hope it help even a tiny bit and you find some peace with the wait. I know what you mean as I am drawn to China too. That’s where she is. Sorry if you see this twice. After I hit send the first time I got an error.
June 28th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
We are DTC 7-28-06 and have had it with this wait. We are starting paperwork for Russia (Russian Far East where the children are of Asian ethnicity.) I just need to be in a program that is functioning somewhat systematically. With China, we just don’t know what is going on! Our agency is telling us to expect 12 months or less for Russia. For all of you who stay with China, I truly hope and pray for a speed-up, but for my own sanity, I need to get off this emotional rollercoaster.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Dear HawaiiGirl24,
Please keep the faith..with a fall 2006 LID..that is to far off to make long range predictions for 2012……things could speed up….but even if they stay the same….there will be a referral for you.
I have never heard of anyone never receiving a referral…so if you decide to wait then you will have your daughter…..we wait for alot of things in life….this has been perhaps the biggest challenge we have all been faced with in our life thus far….waiting is never fast.
I give advise to new upcoming brides to not let anyone “hurry” their wedding day…enjoy every minute..on your terms…heck I made the limo driver go up the “avenue” because that’s how I envisioned coming to church… because why??…we all know our day goes by in a flash….when you receive your little girl in your arms you have an eternity to savour and create memories…not just one “wedding day”…so try and put things into perspective…trust me we are all exactly where we need to be….as we wait for our beautiful daughters.
Marlene K
LID March 17, 2006
June 30th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Mumarlene, we are LID 3 19 07. Maybe we will get our referrals at the same time.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Mumarlene, oops sorry. I got excited and misread your date. I haven’t come across anyone yet with a March 07. I hope you will be seeing your baby very soon.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
thanks Mumarlene for your wonderful words, what you have said is sooo true.. and we definetely learned the meaning of patience going through this whole ordeal and it has slowly made us stronger. I admit at times i do have doubts on wether we will ever get a referral or not, but like you said i have never heard of anyone not getting a referral yet. All we can do is continue waiting patiently for our daughters to come home to us. Keep me posted on your upcoming referral, lucky you…. your only a few months away….
The Orta’s lid 10-11-06