25th Included
People with LID’s of the 25th from two different agencies have now been told they will be in this batch. One US agency and one European agency.
One of those agencies is saying the cut off is the 25th, but I’m not ready to go there just yet. Their next LID up is the 25th and their next one after that is a long ways off, so for their agency the cut off is the 25th. Let’s hope, anyway.
If you need a reminder of the Projections, you can see them here: http://chinaadopttalk.com/2008/06/13/projections-12/
The 25th isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, but I’m hoping it’s not the cut off. For now, I’ll just say that it looks like the 25th is included but I don’t think we have enough information yet to assume that it is the cut off.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:43 am
I’m pulling a first for us and calling our agency today to see if there is any reason for us to hang by the phone this week.
peace
fm
LID 1-27-06
http://www.alyzabethan.blogspot.com
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:53 am
Thanks RQ. I am really hoping they at least go up until the 27th (which matches last months numbers)…..Congrats to everyone receiving referrals this month
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Whether the cutoff is Jan 25 or Jan 27 (or even early Feb), the fact it has taken/will take 5 referral batches to work through Jan 06 LIDs puts that relatively tiny LID month on par with the 5 referral batches it took to refer the known-to-be-massive Nov 2005LIDs. (Look at polls where Nov 05 and Jan 06 are recorded on the same poll, and compare the size.)
That’s a pretty considerable slowdown for people only 2 LID months past Nov/05.
At this current pace, we’ll see March and (some? all?) of April 2009 referred in 2009, with May 06 referrals in the first half 2010 — which is now looking like a *best*case scenario (because it relies on no further slowdown and even a small speed-up for CCAA to get through March & AprilLIDs in the same # referral batches as they did Jan & FebLIDs.)
That means it relies on a scenario which is the opposite of what is actually happening: we have been seeing, overall, increasingly fewer NSN referrals per month. That reality makes May06 more likely to be referred in the second half of 2010, not the first. I’m writing this on the main blog because not everyone reads the forum stuff and many North American agencies are not telling PAPs the truth.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:58 am
threebluesteps, I have been thinking the same thing. It was such a relief to get through November 05 because we all thought that the lighter months following would be processed in a shorter amount of time. guess not. And some people (me included) still look at the numbers and think that CCAA might get further along if the days to be included have few lids logged in. But really, these lighter months are taking just as long as the so called huge months. I have hope that I will get a referral someday but no hope in the thinking that even the lighter months might move more quickly.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:14 am
The 26th in the old poll looks pretty big in its own right (41).
So it might be that it is small this month and big next month as we hopefully cover the CNY into around Feb 10th. Which days is big, but average for LID numbers.
Hoping I am wrong!
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
finally!!!!! We are in!!!! I don’t think any number crunching is going to ruin my day today - because finally, finally! the 24th is IN!!! wooo hooo!!!!!! Our little one’s photo is coming!!!!! Just so thrilling and exciting!!! A big Happy Hallelujah!!! to all my January friends with LIDs 23, 24, and 25!!! (Hopefully more to come!!) We’ve waited so very, very, very, very long and FINALLY we can celebrate being NEXT!!! What a happy celebration!!!!! I so wanted it to include more - like ALL of January! Congratulations to everyone who is NEXT!!! Your babies’ photos are coming!!!!
Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
I’m really hoping that there is a speed up…since my agency thought we’d get our referral sometime next year…LID 8-8-06. I also guessing that some will drop out because of this long wait.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:53 am
Congrats china4ever and all the other families up to the 25th!!! However, it is depressing if they only go to the 25th. Very depressing and disappointing… maybe we’ll have better news later today. Somehow, I don’t really think so though.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:00 am
Okay, I’ve been trying really hard to stay positive through all of this, but these numbers are really challenging my ability to be optimistic. If it’s going to take 5 months to get through each LID month, I’ve got another 5 years to wait! I’m sorry if this sounds negative, pitifull, not very encouraging to others…..but I have to say it…..This stinks!! I’m going to be 51 in five years! My first daughter is going to be 11 in five years! And chances are, one of my parents may not even be here in five years! So, I’ll say it again, this stinks! I’m sure it will pass, but right now, I’m not finding a lot of hope :(
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:02 am
I’m sorry…Congratulations to those getting their referrals this month. I shouldn’t take away from your excitement with my negativity. You deserve to be happy right now.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Well FindingHope we are in with our LID of 23 Jan 2006. And as wildly happy as I am for my family (by family I mean all those in our very lucky shoes!), I think it is aweful this wait. Right before the last referral cut-off date was known, I had no idea if we were going to have our referral in June or as far out as August. In fact, my agency told me August was the best bet.
When we adopted our first daughter in March of 2004 it was during a referral speed up. When we applied for China the wait was 12 to 13 months after LID. By the time we got our referral it was down to 8 months and shortly afterward it was at the 6 month wait we all thought would go on forever. At the heighth of the speed-up CCAA was referring anywhere from 4 to 8 weeks a month. The cut-offs dates seemed to be measured in weeks and not days. And so we waited with our second adoption application not to have the girls too close in age.
I had hoped a speed-up would be happening by now and I will hope for either a speed-up or for CCAA to formally announce their projected referral dates for LIDs by month. The wait is aweful but what is worse is the just not knowing if you are 2 years away or 8 months away or even “are we there yet? or 3 months away still?”
So here is to all of us celebrating our soon-to-be-out-referrals! And here is to all of us who are strong enough to hope and wait.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
1st let me say that I am happy for everyone receiving their referrals.
With an Dec. 06′ LID I too am finding it challenging to remain hopeful. IF indeed 25/Jan. 06 is the cut off — it took 6 mos. to refer Jan. 06′.
At this rate we will wait another 5-6 years for a referral?!?!?!
I honestly don’t know what to think anymore.
Lisa
LID: 12.20.06
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:42 am
If they only get to the 25th they will still have 2 more days in January to refer. In other words, it will have taken 7 months to complete January 2006, not six !?!
Patience
LID 2/06/06
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:50 am
I agree Findinghope and penelope1
This is one of the hardest roads to travel.
I too am finding it very stressful, its the not knowing.
Everything is tied up. Jobs, Medical, House moves, afraid to do anything, afraid to get sick. afraid of any changes, that may cause you not to get a referral.
I too am happy for people receiving referrals, without sounding too selfish, I wish it were me.
Please someone somewhere give us some information so we can make tough decisions.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:54 am
I agree with threeblue’s posting. Its so hard to know what to think these days about the China program. Threeblue just what are agencies saying about the wait these days? I see agency websites acknowledging up to 5 years for the wait times….or others that just don’t address the wait on their websites (and this is bad enough).
Its clear to me that China needs to tighten up their rules again or to hold off taking any new files for awhile (which although painful, I think they should seriously considering doing for perhaps 6 months). Why on earth the CCAA keeps taking new files from agencies is beyond me. And if I was a China only agency, I would be frantically trying to branch out to other countries…the writing is on the wall!!
Having said all of this my personal belief is that the CCAA will honour their committments to their IA program…its just going to take a very long time to do so. So sorry, for everyone waiting…this is not fun (I remember!!!).
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
catherinethegreat: I just checked our agency’s web-site and today they are saying “…22-36 months after we send your file to China, they will send us a photo…”
I find this VERY optimistic (to put it politely). Of course, that would be terrific for us since I calculate our wait at about 8 years right now and at the time we were DTC our agency’s web-site was saying 20 months.
Our SW recently emailed us that the agency told her that our wait would be 28 mos. I just laughed. At the end of the day, the wait will be whatever it will be — my mindset is to project the future based upon the best facts at hand and then hope to be pleasantly surprised, but not to count on it.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
I so wish they would do more too! I really was hoping for all of January to be included this time and to finally have my February friends on the charts and my March friends not far behind! (still hoping the rumor isn’t true and there are more included!!)
Please know that my happiness over being next is tempered by the agonizing wait that we all have felt or are still feeling. While our wait has been so long, I know the wait ahead if they remain at this pace, is even longer. So just please know that while it is finally time for us to celebrate, my heart does ache for my friends who are still waiting, it is never a party unless everyone is invited - still hoping for more “invitations” in every batch! So you all just go ahead and feel what you need to feel - I’ve been there too. It hurts deeply, stings, and sometimes just makes me angry… I would never want you to feel like you have to hide your emotions - right now I am happy, but I have to say, I totally disagree with folks who say you just “forget the waiting” - um, nope, I’ll never forget this waiting - it has changed something inside me - I am a different person. I am much more patient, I treasure memories with my family more deeply, and I understand the value in just “one more day”… The waiting for me has been growth and hurt and lots of giving up my false perceptions of control. So I’m not ever going to be one of those who says - it just fades away… it has become a part of me and soon it will be magnified by the awesomeness of seeing the reason for the waiting - and yes, that will make it all worth it!!!
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:19 pm
The sad thing is that I was perfectly willing to wait 3-4 years. We would just work our lives around that. But when we start talking about 7-8 years, how do you adjust for that? I’ll be in my 50’s. My first daughter will be approaching her teen years. My first daughter loves her gramma and papa SO MUCH, and 8 years may mean that my second child doesn’t get to have gramma and papa. They’re old. I’m getting old. We’re all getting old. The thought of 8 years makes me think I won’t be able to have my second child. I just want to cry. In fact, I think I will.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:19 pm
So if someone has been told a cutoff date, that would mean they are done matching and referrals should be mailed soon…right?
Finally NEXT!
1/23/06
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Congrats to those who are receiving referrals. Be sure to share your photos as we are living vicariously through you!
I’m trying to be optimistic, but with the Olympics coming my prediction would be that it will take until at least November or December to get through February referrals and that us mid-Marchers (3.14.06) will see our referrals in the first quarter of 2009. I hope I’m wrong, but this is what I will plan for.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Nancyclod,
…With a LID date of March 17, 2006…with regret…I think you are right on target….Marlene..
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:19 pm
My “Favorite” is when the agencies put on their websites, “The current wait is 29 [insert any # here] months”, which leads people to believe that if they apply, it will be the same timeframe. There are very few agencies that acknowledge outright the increasing wait month to month. BTW, I find the “disclaimer” (A.K.A. Cover your butt) of “Referral times may change at any time” extremely disceptive.
JMHO,
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:03 pm
…On a positive note..just think of the excellent parenting skills we are all developing..extreme patience… So, when our wee ones won’t eat their veggies…will say that’s ok will wait… till your finished…or better yet for those of us getting daughters the wait for the bathroom will have new meaning….any time they spend in there will be warp speed compared to this wait…just trying to spin this..on the happy side..