Projections
Sorry I seem to have pulled a disappearing act. Lots of things going on at work right now and may continue this way for another week or two as I approach a couple of deadlines. I don’t think I’ll be gone for days at a time again, though. I should be around several times a day to at least check on things and post if I see any rumors to speak of.
Now, onto some analysis: Let’s take a historical look of how the raw numbers have fallen in the past as compared to this month. This chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that you can’t compare numbers from different polls. It’s like looking at a citywide map and statewide map and trying to say that an inch on this one took ten minutes so an inch on that one should take ten minutes. It doesn’t work. Still, you can get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone.
There appear to have been some expedites in this batch, so it may not be quite as small as it first appears. Not a lot of expedites, but enough that we should take it into consideration.
Now we need to talk about the columns on my projections. The original good/bad scenario was based on what they were doing back in the summer of 2006. In June of 2007 I added the Horrid column, and in June of 2008 I added the “Spring 2008 Small” column. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
And finally, here are my projections:
And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
July 15th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Assume you meant the “July” projections to be “August” on the chart….
July 15th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
chinababybarnes - thank you. I fixed it.
July 15th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
According to our agency, they’re predicting that they’ll get their next batch (with a February 9th LID) in September. Take it for what it’s worth…
July 15th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
RQ. I wondered how much expedited referrals represent out of the total number of referrals this past month. It seems like they referred all of December 2006 in this batch and all of November 2006 in the last batch; which leads me to believe that expedited referrals probably could represent a fair amount of total referrals (>20%) in the past two batches and perhaps help partially explain why this batch in particular seemed a little small. What do you think?
CTG
July 15th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
RQ -
First of all thank you so much for all you do and all the information you give us. Please don’t think I am being rude or disrespectful. I just have a question.
I have found myself never looking at your “good case” scenarios. I don’t really understand where those numbers come from I guess. I think a “good case” scenario has changed in the last year. To me, 10-12 days would be a good case scenario. 28 days seems like a fantasy and unreachable. Your projections for all of 2008 (since Sept 2007 really) have all fallen below bad case. Maybe the projection calculations should be tweaked some. I just don’t like getting people’s hopes up when in reality it is just a fantasy. Let’s face it, there is no way they are going to get through Feb 23rd in August! :) Although it is nice to dream!!
Again - please don’t think I am being rude or disrespectful, especially since you have been so swamped at work and took the time to put this information out for us. I really am appreciative. I just have to question how the projections are calculated.
Thanks
Sara
LID 2-27-06
July 15th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
I have read so many different things online. My DH and I have just begun our journey. Our dossier isn’t even in China yet. There are some sights that say if you haven’t started yet, don’t start. Find somewhere else. Anyone have any advice for us? Thanks so much for leaving so much wisdom through out this site. It’s been so helpful.
Best wishes to everyone.
WFL
July 15th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
tiredofw8ing, you can read the explanation here:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2008/03/10/projections-9/
July 15th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
RQ,
So glad you are back. Predictions are really sad. We are still waiting to see what is happening with our agency(they did not get Hague accreditiation). Trying not to get my hopes too high that things will work out. I am trying not to think that after all this time, money, and emotional stress we are out of luck just because of the agency not getting in with the new Hague. Luckily we are in with the I-600. I hope they have answers soon. It sure is stessing me out! There is no way we are starting all over.
July 15th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
NOOOOooooooo!!! I’m keeping my fingers crossed that we avoid another 2 day month AND holding onto hope for a referral BEFORE December. Just when it seems it couldn’t get much worse …
Pootiepie
LID 2/17/06
July 15th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
waiting for lauryn… We are also just now dtc june 27th and have not even received our lid as of yet. But If we had a lid of July 1st 2008 that is 888 days (includes weekends and holidays )of days before us. To make the 2 years projected when we started there is no way so I add a year to make if 36 months. (hey this is my fantasy) still no way though. China would have to start doing 24.66 days per month or more to get us our baby in 3 years from July 1st 2008. I can’t ever see a speed up like that. Not trying to be a downer. If this is your first child (unlike me) Or your old (like me) and your not being lead to China (like me) I would check out your options. Just my p.o.v.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Waiting for Lauryn, from comments I’ve seen around I think many people that are in the process or recently completed the process of adopting from China would not consider adopting again from China based on the projected wait. Many, but certainly not all. Many factors point towards a very long wait, but no one can say with 100% authority what the wait will actually be. Add on to that that there are still agencies that are quoting 1-2 year waits to prospective clients, and it can be hard to know what to believe.
Me, I believe the wait will stretch to 5+ years. We switched to SN and came home a year ago (LID 3-06) with our wonderful ds. I personally would not recommend to a friend to start an adoption thru China at this time. For someone already starting the process, I would encourage them to soul search on how long you are truly willing to wait.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
When did commenting begin awaiting moderation? I’ve posted for 2 years without a problem…I think.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Waiting for Lauryn - honestly, if I was starting over, I wouldn’t go with China again. It’s just not the program I thought I was signing on to.
I have a LID of June 13, 2006. It has been taking approximately five months to complete one month of referrals, for many months now. I am about 4 1/2 months of LID’s from referral, or approximately 22 1/2 months to referral. That’s nearly two more years IN ADDITION TO the two we’ve already waited. We anticipated one year. Then “the CCAA doesn’t want the wait to go more then 18 months”. Then “the CCAA doesn’t intend for the wait to go beyond 24 months”.
Yes, there are fewer people “in line” starting spring of 2007. However, there are still about 15 months of referrals to get through BEFORE getting to the smaller months. If it continues to take five months to get through one month of LIDS, it will be 75 months (over six years) before they even get to the slower months.
Perhaps that’s extreme, but based on their current track record it (now) seems possible to me. Nobody dreamed a two year wait was possible when we first started.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Waitingforlauryn,
If this is your first baby, my best advice would be to either drop out and find another way to add to your family, unless you have the financial means to adopt while you wait for China. This is our first baby and the last 2 years have been terrible. When we started the wait was 12 months. My hope is that your agency was upfront and told you the wait would be roughly 3-5 years. I found out about the wait in early 2007 and our agency said it was just a “rumor”. They said it would be over 18 months. YEAH RIGHT! Best of luck.
LID 1-2007
July 15th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Sorry,
Mistake on last post—-they said it would not be over 18 months.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Lauryn, if this is your first child I would definitely say look at another program. China (in my opinion) used to be the best program but now it has become a joke with the wait time and referring “repaired” Special Needs children to parents who requested Non-Special Needs.
Believe me when I say I can not wait to bring our little girl home from China! If I had known about this wait and the referral of “repaired” Special Needs to Non-Special Needs request I would have never went with China.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
I just want our daughter.
Adoption of first child.
LID 2/24/06.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Sorry to vent but does anyone else think it is unethical for agencies to keep signing people up for the China program? Maybe it would make a statement to the CCAA if noone was applying anymore.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
seems totally unethical that agencies are still signing people up! They are going to feel sooo cheated! My opinion is to stop taking people’s money and making unfair promises. Maybe then too, the CCAA will realize that something needs to chage.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
RQ -
First thanks for all you do! You are a WONDER WOMAN!!!
Second could you point me to any prior explanations of expedites and how you can tell if there were expedited referrals in a batch?
Third, if you want a good trilogy to read check out Robyn Carr’s Virgin River series. Reading for pleasure is definitely one of the best ways I know to cope with the wait for our Abby-Cadabby!
LID 3.14.06
July 15th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
It’s not unethical AS LONG AS they are upfront regarding the wait. I think most quote current wait times and give the impression that the current wait time is what new families can expect.
July 15th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Lauryn, I think if you are open to a child with a minor or correctible medical concern(s) and you are with an agency who participates in the shared special needs (SN) list, China may still be a very good option. On the other hand, if you are only open to a child with no known medical concerns and you are not open to a long wait, you may want to consider another option including another country program, either domestic or international.
It’s hard to predict at this point how long the wait for people just entering the process will be; there are just too may factors including the size of the backlog, how many people are leaving the process (dropping out or going SN), and the number of children available to int’l adoption. There is still a very large backlog of dossiers already in China and includes both dossiers logged in under the old rules (most of 2006 and part of 2007) as well as dossiers logged in under the new rules (the rest of 2007 and over half of 2008).
July 15th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
I think someone needs to step up and ask why agencies are still signing people up to the nsn program for China. If the truth is that there are less and less children available for adoption because of the decrease in abandonments, and increase in domestic adoption then we should all be raising our hands and saying well done China and move on.
The reason I hope most of us adopted or wanted to adopt from china is because there was a need for adoptive families for children in orphanages…although it would be naiive to think that all of us had that motivation, I’m fairly sure the realization of that would eventually come.(and i wont enter a debate on ’saving’ a child, because that is just distasteful)
I think the State Dept needs to step up and say to agencies, that they must not sign on new families to the China program, in turn saying to China that a four - five year timeline is unacceptable and shows the lack of need on China’s side to place orphans internationally(it will come to this I’m sure). The program has been so distorted from it’s original purpose that it has become an industry. Do we really want to buy into that?
I would love to see China stop the nsn program if they are able to adequately provide homes for the fewer and fewer children they profess to have in the SWI’s, and have a SN program only, in the hopes that eventually they will be able to care and place their children with special needs domestically.
Don’t think I actually believe that there are no children in orphanages in China, I just think it’s becoming a cottage industry within china domestically to sell/trade children to the highest bidder…why on earth would someone abandon a child when they can use a broker to sell a child for much needed funds?
I think we need to educate ourselves, I have two children from China, adopted 2005(nsn) and 2008(sn), I love our agency(China only) and the work they do in China, and at home…but do I think there needs to be change…yes I do. I would no longer recommend the China program to people who ask me, I’d recommend the sn program, but definately not the nsn route.
You have no idea how terribly I feel for those who are waiting for their referrals, I can only hope your heart helps you make the right decsion for your family.
The CCAA needs to step up, clear up this mess and reevaluate their part in this fiasco.
May the force be with you all!
July 15th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
RQ, thank you for all of your moonlighting on the analysis. I really enjoy this part of your website. It really has helped me keep my sanity through this journey. I know we can’t compare poll to poll, but can we look at trends? I am not a math wiz by any stretch of the imagination; just a lady with a thread of hope.
The last significantly horrid case was the batch that ended with 12/19 for 60 referrals. The batch after that was the one that ended right before the CNY and it was a humongous batch of 184. Can we compare the CNY holiday to the upcoming Olympics and maybe just maybe compare the big Feb 08 batch to the August 08 batch since work is suppose to stop during the Olympics? If we do could it be possible to get through 2/8 or 9?
Stef
LID 2/6/06
July 15th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Lauryn,
We have a LID of February 9, 2006; therefore, we are anticipating a referral in September, according to our adoption agency.
This will be our second adoption as we adopted a beautiful six month old boy from Korea in 2005, who just turned four on Saturday. Our whole Korean adoption took exactly one year from start of homestudy to picking up our son. Since our adoption, the wait to adopt from Korea has increased. If we would have met all the Korean adoption requirements (age) when we started the process for our second adoption, we would have had our second child by now (even with the increased wait in Korea).
Since age is what led us to adopt our second child from China, we decided to ride out the storm. My suggestion to you is to explore other and all international and domestic adoption programs IMMEDIATELY. In spite of all the optimism, the China situation (wait) is not going to get better any time soon.
We already know that we would like to adopt a third child. The only circumstances under which we would consider a second China adoption now would be a special needs case.
Good luck and cheers to all!
July 15th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Does anyone know exactly what dates CCAA was closed for CNY in 2006?
July 15th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
boboleah2,
CCAA was closed from Jan 28th - Feb 5th, 2006.
Stef
July 15th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
Hi Everyone
Just to let you know that there are still some agencies advertising adoption to China on their websites and they did NOT get Hague accredidation!!
Is that allowed?
July 16th, 2008 at 12:38 am
Hello everyone, once again we have been let down with the slow progress in referrals and with the olympics coming up who knows what is to come. 3 years ago we decided to adopt our first child and was on a waiting list in the u.s. domestic program, however after waiting a year with no luck we decided to switch to China. At that time the wait time was said to be 10 - 12 mos for a referral, well our lid is 10-11-06 and we have been waiting for 21 months and counting and we don’t even have a for sure date to expect our referral. So I hope that people really consider if they are willing to be patient and wait with no idea of when and how long you will get your referral, and also take into consideration the extra expenses for constantly updating your homestudy, fingerprints, and I-600’s. We do not regret signing up with China, we know our daughter is there waiting for us…. but we do wish that this whole adoption process went a whole lot quicker and smoother especially since it is our first time…. this long wait is just killing us…
July 16th, 2008 at 9:11 am
1st, Thanks RQ for finding the time to put this together when you are so busy.
2nd, I had a thought the other day about the phrase “the current wait time is…..”. IMO, PAPs who are just starting might think that “the current wait time is…..” refers to them, their current wait, just signing onto the program. Not the wait for the people who are just receiving their referral now and signed onto the the program 2.5+ years ago. In retrospect, I think DH and I took the phrase to mean it was the current wait for us just signing onto the program. I think the bit of jargon needs to be reworded or come with an explanation.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Thank you all so much.
The warmth of this site is overwhelming. I can’t thank you enough for your honesty and sharing your experiences. This will be our first child. The wait has just added to the pain of infertility. I hope things pick up and that we all can bring home our babies soon. If you have any other suggestions or stories to share, I would love to read them. Thanks again for everything. RQ you are incredible!!!
WFL
July 16th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Waiting4Ash~well, of course you took the phrase “the current wait time is …” to mean what your wait time would be. What logical person wouldn’t?? I mean seriously, what intelligent person would think that what the phrase actually means is “the wait time for the families that began the process 3-4 yrs ago is…”??
The phrase is and has been used by agencies to intentionally mislead prospective adoptive parents. Its horrible, absolutely awful to lie to people this way and then hide behind the ridiculous statement “we can’t predict what will happen, it could slow further, it could SPEED UP” –its cruel, really really cruel and possibly illegal for agencies to quote wait times this way.
At this point, any agency who is not painting a very clear picture of how long the wait COULD be and how it has increased over the last few years is committing a form of fraud. I would run, not walk, but run from any agency that is doing so.
2 yrs, 5 mos and counting.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:31 am
ladeeesquire,
I totally agree. I wish when we first went to the agency in May ‘06, they would of told us that things were already way way behind. They just said that the current wait time is 12 months. Of course any logical person would be able to predict the wait increasing. Knowing our history of infertility it seems even more cruel not to tell us. Just makes those extra checks for all the updated homestudies that much harder to write. By the way, I talked to the President of COA and he saidpart of the reason that some agencies were denied accreditation was because the way they were not upfront about the wait. I am guessing people were denied their money back and complained to them. Our agency was one of the ones denied, but it seems a lot of people were not told the whole “truth”. I would never never say we are “entitled” to a Chinese child, but the truth we were all entitled to. This is one of the most important decisions I have ever done, and it feels like one slap in the face after another.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:53 am
waiting for Lauryn,
I really feel for you. We submitted our dossier to NSN in March of 2007, after our IF diagnosis, thinking we would wait 2 years (which was more truthful than what many agencies were telling their families, even though it was still grossly inaccurate). In May of 2007, we found our daughter on our agency’s SN list and we brought her home in January, 2008. She is just an amazing child; I can’t even imagine her in an orphanage! She is so spirited, smart, and lovely. I am a speech pathologist, so I felt very comfortable with many SN, and she has a need that might now have made her eligible for NSN adoption (so lucky for us that someone in China actually thought her need was “special”). I don’t think switching to SN is something to consider just to get out of a long line, but certainly investigate, because there are some incredible kids waiting.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
waiting for Lauryn,
We are also waiting for our first child, LID 4-29-08. It does get hard and depressing. But we have gone over all our other options, and as difficult as our wait with China is, there is no other option we are called to right now. So, as I have said in my heart many, MANY times, we are either going to be forty and be childless, or be forty and anticipating our first child. Either way we will be forty. (I happen to want to be a parent when I get there!)
Feel free to email me, I’d love to chat with you and encourage you during this wait!! opuspeanut@yahoo.com
July 16th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Waiting for Lauryn…I would check out Ethiopia. More uncertain process, but a much easier dossier and 1 year or less wait.
July 17th, 2008 at 8:41 am
I find myself looking at the Horrid Case scenario and praying every month that it comes true. Isn’t that pathetic? Everytime I think I know @ when we’ll get our referral, it gets thrown further back. I have Spring 09 in my head now. Please stay horrid case!!!!
July 17th, 2008 at 11:50 am
I agree lrl says - my LID is 10/1/06 how does that feel for an eternity. I just read the projections and truly am starting to believe we will not get our daughter even next year. We busted our backsides to get our paperwork done, the wait changed and now by China’s own rules we will be too old to get a baby if we have to wait to more years (so it is ok to wait and be old when the baby arrives, but you cant be old to start the process) assuming one thinks old is 45+.
Not to mention that my baby could arrive without a grandparent being alive to meet her.
and truly the only other option is to not be parents. It’s a tough decion Waiting for Lauryn, I hope you find your answer
July 17th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Saluki22,
I know how you feel. I have 3 grandparents and 2 are not in good health. I have a bad feeling they will never see our daughter. We are LID 1-07. I have a feeling our referral will be in 2011. That is, if our agency did not screw everything up. They did not get Hague accreditiation. We have only been married 2 yrs., so we could’nt even start over with the new Hague if we wanted to. With a 10-06 LID, I would bet you will have a referral sometime mid 2010.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I agree with several people that posted that it is not unethical for agencies to still promote adoptions from China as long as they fully disclose that the wait time could be tremendous and there is no way to predict it. Had we known it would be this long, I seriously doubt we would’ve started the process. We are in that window where the referral timeline was 6-8 months from LID when we started so I think we’ve seen the largest increase from predicted timeline to current timeline. Our LID is 03-28-06. We rushed madly through our paper chase so that start to finish would be a little over a year. Now, We’re about to renew our I-797 for the second time, hoping that gets us through to travel time. The wait time will be insignificant in the grand scheme of things, but I wish the CCAA were a little more upfront with timelines, processes, etc.