When
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 28, 32, 29, 31, 33, 26, 32, 31, 32, 28, 38 and 28 days.
The least time between batches is 26 days, the most is 38, and the average is 31. We see 28 and 32 three times each, and we see 31 twice.
The soonest I would expect to see them this month is Monday, August 4 and the latest is Thursday, August 14. The most likely arrival based on the average would be Thursday, August 7.
But we have to talk about the Olympics. There is speculation that the CCAA might want to get a new batch out if indeed they are going to be shut down during the Olympics. We know that only businesses needed for the Olympics (mostly hospitality places) are supposed to be open for business. But we aren’t sure if that means non-essential government employees will be told to stay home as well. If they are going to shut down and if they want to get one more batch out before then… well then my guess is we could expect to see them begin arriving August 4th. But that’s a lot of iffing.
And, if they don’t get a batch out and they close the office for the Olympics, I have no idea when they might get another batch out.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
I am beginning to hate the Olympics…
LID 2/24/06 – never in my worst nightmare would I have considered the 2008 Olympics to have so thoroughly messed up our adoption plans, when we started this is 2005.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
The 7th works for us! My DW Aly is predicting the 8th but we don’t even want to think about August 14th! Ugh…
peace
fm
LID 1-27-06
alyzabethan.blogspot.com
July 16th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
My husbad and I have believed for some time that the olympics is definetly the focus in China. That it does in fact have something to do with the slow down. Sorry for those of you who disagree. So the olympics are almost here and I guess we’ll see what happens after. I’m sure they won’t just bust out big batches right off the bat. Then everyone would question that. Hey, maybe they will put out an early Aug. batch and another right before the Olympics. Just a wish!!!
LID 3-21-06
July 16th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
AwaitingMaddie:
I’m with you — this is the first time in my life I wish the Olympics were done and over with!
LID – 2-23-06
July 16th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
My hope is that the CCAA really does want to ‘get out of Dodge’ for the Olympics and that they will sign off all referrals earlier this month. It would make more sense to do this sooner rather than later. Of course just because this idea makes sense to ‘us’ does not mean it does to the CCAA.
Looking forward to seeing referrals hit February this month!!!
CTG
July 16th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
My heart goes out to all of you who are waiting for the next batch of referrals and TA’s! I’m sure I’ll hear a big *sigh* of relief from those of you on deck when that Olympic torch is extinguished.
http://www.ourjourneytomeilin.blogspot.com
July 16th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Can’t even think that they would not send out a batch!!! I am going with the 4th.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
I hear ya! I’m starting to hate the Olympics also. I just read a sad article in the Boston Globe saying that since the Olympics was announced in 2001, 1.25 million people have been evicted from Beijing! That equals 13,000 people per week!! They are trying to gentrify the city. The remainibg people are trying to save their houses and stores, etc. but their protests are falling on deaf ears. Apparently, they are being offered much less money than they would need in order to buy a new apt elsewhere. I guess people in more rural areas are being treated much worse because they are out of the public eye. It is all just so sad! I would never want to live in China and be subjected to such treatment.
July 16th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
AwaitingMaddie & Sitting Tight,i’m so with you on that one. The only thing about the Olympics that i’m exciting about is our 2nd year Anniversary wait for Emma LID 8-8-06. I can’t wait for them to get started and end just as fast.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
I vote for the 4th! But… since we sent our agency application on 8/06/05, were approved on 9/06/06 and logged in on 2/06/06, the 6th would have a certain symmetry. Especially if the CCAA gets through the 6th in this referral cycle. Please, please, pretty please!!
My fingers are crossed for all my cyber-friends who are waiting for referrals – may there be a speed-up after the Olympics.
Nina
LID 2/06/06
http://www.journeytokavanna.blogspot.com
July 16th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Thanks RQ for taking the time to provide your analyses, despite the heavy-duty-sounding week you’ve had in your ‘other’ life. Your wisdom and commitment are, as always, so appreciated!
July 17th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Any idea about how the Special Olympics will influence the process? They are held after the “Traditional” Olympics.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Ninatchka…I am hoping they get through till Feb 6th, but you are cutting it fairly close. Lets hope you get your referral between the 4-6th of August.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
CTG,
I hope they send the referrals early too! I have a LID of
1-27-06 and am so excited that it is hard to think of anything else! I also hope they do a good number of referrals this time.
Kim
July 17th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
luvluv,
I don’t think that the Special Olympics are going to impact travel the way the regular Olympics are. We are adopting a son from Beijing and have a ballpark itinerary right now that includes arriving at the end of the first week in September-in Beijing.
On another note, I just watched the HBO documentary, China’s Stolen Children, and would suggest that people watch it. It is tragic but it is also part of our children’s heritage.
An interesting note on this documentary, too, is that at the end they say the Chinese government plans to keep the One Child Policy in effect until at least 2010. So that would be an important date for us to watch-only 18 months away.
Ruby
July 18th, 2008 at 8:47 am
It is important to note that the Chinese Govt. said the one child policy will be in effect for 10 more years. It was a big news story 3-4 months ago. They said they will re-evaluate in 2018.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Those of us with 2008 lid will still be in line in 2018 so it will still be a factor for us. :) (man I hope we won’t be still in line)
July 18th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Regarding the impact of the Special Olympics on travel… we were told that if we travel in September we’ll have to skip the Beijing portion of the trip, as it will be impossible to get hotel rooms due to the Special (or Para?) Olympics. I don’t understand it but that’s the agency’s position. Bummer!
We’re expecting our referral in August… if for some reason we can’t get to China and back before October, we’ll have to wait until November (because of the holiday the first week in October, and the trade fair in Guangzhou the last half of the month). We’re with a large China only agency and this is their policy. AGGGHHHH!!
Not that I’m complaining. To be able to say, “We think we’re next” is amazing, and I never thought I’d get there. My heart breaks for everyone in line behind us…
Now come on, referrals!
July 21st, 2008 at 5:14 am
I still can’t believe that China has gone from one extreme to another – at first, placing kids so quickly, then practically shutting down the next. Isn’t the main idea to get kids into loving homes as quickly as possible?
With a LID of 11/11/06 for our second child, it’s hard to keep spirits up, thought, we are very grateful for our first daughter, Gina (Jiangxi Province) and can’t possible imagine waiting for a first child at this time – my heart goes out to all of you waiting – and waiting.
Hoping things change quickly – and we know they can!