I’ve updated the Stats page.
The wait is now up to 30.5 months. We’ve officially reached two and a half years.
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August 17th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Thanks RQ…2 1/2 years…very, very sad.
August 17th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
When we started, the wait-time was 6mo…
then it went up to 1yr……
Now every year completed, we are told One-more-year…..
03/23/06 LID …. Looks like One-more-year.
This process has taken all the excitement & joy out of it for us. While we will continue to renew our paperwork, I really don’t feel like this will ever go through.
Very sad indeed.
August 17th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Yes, very, very sad – and I’ve only waited 17 months with a LID of 3/07! whhaaaaaa!!!!
August 17th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Well, we’re at 23 months so far..LID 9/12/06. I’m predicting sometime in 2010 depending on the speed of things. Possibly even late 2009 if things change.
August 17th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Thanks RQ. I appreciate all of your hard work!
August 17th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Thanks for putting the information out there so people can have some idea what to expect. It has been so sad to watch the wait grow month after month, When it first started I think we all thought (hoped) it was a temporary thing and each month we thought they would go back to referring whole months one day. I waited 14 months for a referral and it was so hard. I feel so bad for all of you who have waited even longer and have no end in sight. Hang in there! I do believe that it will happen and I can tell you our child is an amazing blessing!
August 17th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Hate it.
Not RQ, Love her and all of you! I find support and comfort here. But I hate the wait, just like all of you (are’t you?)…. it is getting longer and longer and longer…. Where does this ‘story’ ends? And my (nearly) 5 year old is asking for her little sister… so sad :-( Every day she is playing with her dolls (she never played with them, it started about 4 months ago) that she is ‘big sister’ and het doll is ‘baby sister’. It makes me feel sad and I want to cry.
LID may 12, 2006
August 17th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
The wait totally sucks! Keep up the faith and don’t get too discouraged. Our LID is 5/24/06 and we ended up going with a SN child through our agency or we’d still be waiting for who knows how much longer. Her SN by the way is very easy…CHD-VSD and her cardiologist says her heart is perfect. Check with your agency’s and see what’s available. Some SN aren’t really SN’s anyway! Good luck
August 17th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Current average number of days placed is about 5, at this rate the wait for some one in logged in in December 2006 is an additional 5 years plus the 30 months that have already gone by. The current rate has them finishing placements for 2006 somewhere in 2013. At 15 days placement it is still an additional two years, Even at 15 days, the wait is eceeding four to five years and may aproach 5 to 6 years for any one logged in after june 2006.
When we talked with our agency about this they confirmed that they believe those numbers to be realistic and are unsure of the survivability of the china program due to the lack of current applicants. They run multiple country programs and have never seen such a dramatic drop in a program, They are advising new applicants of at least a four year wait and are currently seeing almost no new applicants for the program. Their belief is that short of more agencies collapsing drastically reducing the number of people waiting or drastic numbers of people leaving the program due to the wait, it seems unlikely that there will be a dramatic increase in placement rate and expect the slow down to continue for the next two years.
This sucks but I think it is better to be realistic than to think that it is the product of the :
Olympics, there going on now the placements for the last two months wont even be traveling to its over…
China deliberating slowing it down for some other great reason and will suddenly find children? This is not a production based business as much as some would think.
The alignment of the planets etc etc etc…
The most likely reason is simple
X number children available and X time X people looking to adopt.
Be realistic anything better is just great
August 17th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
We are using a Large China Only Agency and I do worry about their ability to keep their doors open. They have a full staff here and a full staff in China. The bills have to get paid somehow.
So if my agency folds like a cheap umbrella how do we still adopt from China? Do we go over there and hitchhike to the orphanage with a sign around are necks?
Big D
August 17th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Hi, I just discovered this website a couple of days ago and am really impressed. I have read some of the recent entries and have gone into the archives. I really enjoyed the info. about travelling, etc.
I am single, almost 43, Canadian, with an LID 09/29/06. I had pretty much figured by myself that I had another 3 years to go (started doing some multiplication a few months ago). I went on-line a couple of days ago to see if my ideas about wait times seemed realistic and was pretty devastated to read the estimation of Feb 18, 2012 (from the forecast website) and to read articles about people thinking that AI through China might end.
The process to adopt seems to work a bit differently here in Canada. I am with a non-profit adoption agency that works with many countries (China is still expensive – about $20,000). I think the agency is quite small in comparison to many of the American agencies. They recommended a few agencies that deal directly with China (travel plans, translations, etc.) and I chose one of those to work with the China part of the process. Although I do agree that some agencies (including my own) should have been more forthcoming about the wait times (6-8 months), my agency was very proactive in helping me apply to China. They told me that they were only allowed one single applicant per year and the one for ’06 had dropped out due to health concerns. They also told me that there had been rumours about China making changes regarding singles and adoptions so the agency dealing with the China end wanted to rush me through the process asap.
I do really wish I had know what the wait time was going to be like. I don’t think I would have stopped the process, but I likely wouldn’t have bought a crib, etc. It makes me feel very ridiculous sometimes, and I keep the door shut so no visitors will see it. I guess it opens up a door to wishes that now look like they may never come true. The nursery stuff makes me feel a bit pathetic at times: like a woman who buys a bridal gown before she meets the right guy. Anyway, sometimes I think I should just pack everything up, but even if I do I know it’s all still there just in a box.
Anyway, there is only so long that a person can handle being devastated, and I am going back to trying to think about the glass being half full.
Some positives about a longer wait: 1) my very energetic and barky Sheltie will be 6 yrs. old and possibly a bit more calm; 2) since my 2 Shelties will be older and calmer, I will be able to walk them and push a stroller at the same time; 3) I will be able to pay off my pre-adoption debt, not have to take out an adoption loan, and be able to save some money so I can pay my mortgage during my parental leave; 4) if I am able to retire at 60, I will be able to give a lot of supervision during the troublesome teen years; and finally, 5) Age wise, I can go straight to being called “Nana” instead of starting with “Mama”.
Anyway, I really feel for those of you who have had all kinds of disappointments because of fertility issues and domestic adoptions that didn’t work out. I know this wait is even worse for you. We just have to keep supporting each other.
August 17th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
When our file was officially logged in with China, our large China only agency wrote to our group and did say that our wait would be somewhere around 30-33 months, so this seems right to what they are saying. I do hope that this is true..
Littleperson647
11-23-07
August 17th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Bid D,
I have wondered the same thing, but I have to keep believing that won’t happen. I have yet to ask my agency…I suppose that’s where I should start. :(
August 17th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Big D, we are also with a large China only agency and DH did ask how they’re doing. They’re not in danger of closing anytime soon! We think enough people are switching to SN to keep these agencies afloat (agency only said that they’re fine; the SN theory is ours).
It’s the children I worry about… They’re waiting, too.
Nina
LID 2/06/06
http://www.journeytokavanna.blogspot.com
August 17th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Hi Big D and ash2008,
I do not know if other agencies are opening up other routes to China adoption, but my agnecy has programs with both Hong Kong and Taiwan. Most of the adoptions are SN and older children, but they do say that there are some NSN babies available. The children aren’t from mainland China, but Chinese just the same. I also believe the wait is under 2 years from paperwork to parents.
The agency I did my first China adoption has closed it’s doors. They said it was due to financial viablity and the changing adoption arena. A friend tells me the agency she used for all three of her China adoptions is closing it’s doors. They have financial issues as well. It is sad to see.
Since I am a single women and 50, my next adoption will be my last. I had hoped to be going to China for child #3 by this time. I have resigned myself that this is how it is supposed to be. No SN boy for me, too bad, we would of had so much fun.
August 17th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
For all those worried about agencies and what would happen if the agency closes before referral, please remember that in the UK we have no agencies. Papers are processed through a government department and sent out to parents and the local authority has some degree of checking but basically as far as arranging travel and the actual adoption in China you are on your own. Everyone adopting from the UK makes their own travel arrangements and employs a local guide service who co-ordinates on their behalf with provincial departments to arrange the adoption. It all seems to work! So if you are concerned about the possibility of being without an agency by the time of the actual adoption please don’t worry – Everything is possible and it all works.
August 17th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
BLAH.
This wait is a nightmare.
Lisa
August 18th, 2008 at 12:15 am
Well, I for one am curious to see whether those “things will get better after the Olympics” rumors are true. Hey, you never know.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:37 am
The Olympics are about to end. I think I am one of many who are waiting to see what happens with the number of referrals. I don’t expect much in Sept., but if nothing improves by Oct./Nov., I think reality will set in that China just won’t be any better. Unless everyone is willing to wait 5 yrs. or more and keeping spending a ton of $$$ on re-doing paperwork, many more will drop out. What a shame.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:48 am
As “waitingchn Says:” there is a real possibilty is that many ajencies will go under before placement. Has anyone looked into the rules for the transfer of “IA” accounts from one ajency to another – like the airlines-consolidation is the only way to survive.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:12 am
I’ve done the math like waitingchn did. The interesting thing is that when we met with our large China only agency and I did that math (heck I was generous and said, lets say they do a 10 days a month – which hasn’t been done in forever), that’s 3 months to do a month, we are a 9/5/2006 LID, so at the time 9 LID months, out, I came up with 27 months. The woman we met with was very unhappy with my math and kept telling me “You can’t do the math that way.” Other than saying that drop outs were accelerating, she couldn’t give me a lot of logic on why the math was flawed.
It was upsetting in some ways as I felt like they have their head in the sand and aren’t being straight, but on the other hand, I know the large China only agencies have a ton of political considerations to keep in mind. That said, we are still thinking 3 years from today for the referral. Luckily, we started a Korean application last November, were matched in March and received our son in June.
August 18th, 2008 at 11:20 am
If there really is no change in sight, here is what I’m thinking (and hoping) will quickly happen. First, families like my own who have other options/programs available to them will pursue these options and find their beautiful little children waiting for them where they least expected it. This has happened for myself and many, many families I’ve come to know while waiting for China.
It will take awhile to really see the effect of this as many of us are advised to keep our apps in China until our children from the other program are home. But with time, the line (for lack of better wording) will be greatly reduced, and this will allow the referrals to go to those families who really have China as their only chance to build their families.
My greatest hope is that families with China as their one and only chance can hang in there for another year or so. I know that the wait is excrutiating, but I truly believe that the number of families leaving for another program is going to be significant. It breaks my heart to think of anyone dropping out without a child waiting elsewhere, especially if a referral would have come in another year or so.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE try to hang on for awhile longer.
August 18th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Thanks for the words of encouragement FindingHope. I don’t know about the rest of you, but some days, although frustrated with the unknown and uncertainty of it all, I’m okay with the wait. But other days… OYE! Today is an “other” day. I feel so down right now that I’ve just been sitting here at work, unable to work, just staring at my computer.
I’m not being unrealistically hopeful with regards to a speed up after the Olympics, but I still believe it *might* happen. But I honestly don’t expect it for several more months, until early 2009, if it’s going to happen at all. It will take several months for the government’s resources to finally be directed away from a complete focus on the Olympics. I cannot believe that an improving economy, and the other factors they’ve given over and over can fully explain the slow down. The major part of the slow down happened overnight…literally, around 4/07. There is no way, within just one month’s time, that such a major and dramatic shift in abandoned babies would come about in a country as huge and ancient as China. A real slow down, for the reasons they’ve given, would’ve been much more gradual. Therefore, there is definitely some government control in this, for whatever reason. If the Olympics are at least part of the reason for the government control, then perhaps they will start making more babies available for IA within the next year. We’ll see…
In the meantime, try to stay positive, even though I know how hard that truly is.
LID=12/06
August 18th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Findinghope: We are one of those couples who have no other option than to wait for a baby from China. (Plus, it would be really difficult for us to switch because our hearts are with our little Laurali). So we are definately hangin in there. Anything could happen and it has before.
KrissyJ: I agree.
August 18th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
To be clear, we did not drop out of the Chinese program. As with waitingforlaurali, we are very much emotionally attached to our daughter to be. We decided to pursue a concurrent adoption after RQ posted the proclamation from CCAA October last year on concurrent adoptions and after talking with our agency, our social worker and our new agency (non China only obviously).
For us, it was coming an emotional ability to feel that we were not ‘cheating’ on our daughter. We wound up getting her an older brother while we wait another 3+ years for her arrival.
August 18th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I was just wondering if anyone has done or inquired about a domestic adoption while they waited??
August 18th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Where is the best place to determine the feasibility of doing concurrent adoptions? We’ve applied with a China-only agency – just starting the home study and other paperwork this week after being “approved” by the agency.
We’ve been thinking of this for a long time, but are entirely new to the process. We are interested in starting a second application to Korea “in the meantime” while waiting for the China adoption. So far I’ve only found (online) a bunch of “no” answers regarding concurrent adoptions.
Help, or where to go ask this?
Thanks in advance.
August 18th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
We qualified for Korea and had everything done. Before it was sent off to CIS, we had second thoughts and told them to stop it. We already have a daughter from China and believe our second daughter is also in China. We weren’t getting out of the China line, but we realized we didn’t want three children. Since I would never leave the China program, we dropped Korea. I love having all my eggs in one basket. I’ll quote Andrew Carnegie: “…put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket.” If only it were so easy!
August 18th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
We had no children before our son and since we wanted to have multiple children, the concurrent adoption was a relatively ‘easy’ choice (again, I understate that as there was a lot of soul searching and emotional issues we personally needed to work out) given the time frame our math was giving us on China. At this point, we are thinking a solid 3 years between our son and our daughter which was one of the issues both CCAA/China and our agency were concerned with.
As it relates to finding information on a concurrent adoption, you really just need to go to an agency who does other countries and talk to them. That’s what we did. We laid our cards on the table, said we are in line for China and do not want to get out of line, what are your thoughts? What are our options? What is your willingnesses to work with us? We also talked to both our China only agency and our homestudy agency for the China application. My only advice is be honest and upfront. My warning is given the problems with Guatemala (closed), Vietnam (closed), and China (wait times), the wait times for the remaining IA countries have already moved higher.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
When we decided to adopt from China in 2006 we had the hopes of starting our family with a little girl and then if we thaught that we could take on another child then we would try to get a little boy. But unfortunately our plans has taken a turn for the worst….here we are 22 months later with no daughter and no son. I don’t know what we will decide to do in August of 2009 when our I-600 expires again it will be our 3rd time, but I would hate to drop out and loose my place in line and have to start all over with another adoption somewhere else. So what we decided to do was apply to foster/adopt that way we could help a child and in return gain parenting skills and practice being parents. We applied to adopt a child in the foster system from the state of Massachusetts and got the phone call that we were selected to be his foster-to-adopt parents, he is legally free for adoption which means we could be his forever family if things work out< we are so excited and if things work out then our daughter will end up being the baby sister (which i think is even better ) than our original plan. This will really help ease our nerves with the loooong China wait..
lid 10-11-06
August 18th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
KrissyJ wrote:
“The major part of the slow down happened overnight…literally, around 4/07. There is no way, within just one month’s time, that such a major and dramatic shift in abandoned babies would come about in a country as huge and ancient as China.”
The slowdown “literally” happened overnight? Huh? It was way back in August of 2005 that the wait began to slow down, when the match group that month got their referrals 7 months after LID after many months of a 6 month LID to referral trend. The slowdown did not happen “overnight.”
August 18th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
pandamomma:
Sorry if perhaps I’m not following what you’re saying. Yes, I realize that somewhat of a gradual slow down started to happen in ’05. But around April of ’07, it REALLY dropped off; in fact, I don’t believe they’ve moved more than 8 days in a month since. In the year and a half or so prior to that, they were moving at a clip of like 12, 15, 18 days. Some people at my agency have referred to the Spring of ’07 as the “nightmare come true”. I’m a good friend of a cousin of a social worker at my agency, so occasionally I get some good inside tips. They were really alarmed by what they seemed to think was a dramatic drop in the number of referrals. The way I’ve interpreted the situation (and I realize that I might be wrong) is that a small slowdown started to happen in like ’04 and ’05, but that was primarily due to a big increase in the number of applicants. But in ’07, the decrease was significant and huge. Just my 2 cents…
August 18th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I agree with scho0127 — go to an agency or two or six and tell them what your China status is and see what they say. We had the agency that did our China homestudy do a domestic one for us so we could work with a large domestic agency in our state. Turns out our homestudy agency had a birthmom reviewing profiles that day, and we were matched the next day. (Sound too good to be true? Don’t worry, we had an earlier failed domestic match in a far-away state that almost soured us on domestic altogether.) Our perfect baby came home from the hospital with us, and is now three months old.
We’re still hanging in on China for now, but are much more optimistic about future options should it not happen in time for us.
LID 9/06
August 18th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
My issue with what you wrote is that you wrote, “The major part of the slow down happened overnight…literally…”
That would mean that we all went to bed one night when the LID to referral time was at 6 months and woke up the next day and it was suddenly at 30 months. The fact is, for the latter half of ’05 it was taking 1-2 months to get through one month of LID’s. During the beginning of ’06 is climbed to 2-3 months, then 3-4 months and so on until where we are today, where it is taking 4-6 months to get through one month of LID’s. That is not “overnight.” That is a slowdown that has been gradually reaching momentum over the past 36 months.
August 19th, 2008 at 1:14 am
fiona_var – thanks for the laugh – I loved your positives about the wait especially going straight to nana and skipping mamma!!! I really needed a giggle! My DH and I have been trying to see the positives too – like having more time to get the money saved for the adoption and travel. But at this rate I will be around 50 before I am a mum. Hey – good luck!
Lucky people who can do a concurrent adoption – we are not allowed in Australia for no reason at all. No WC program here either. Government agency – I called the other week and got no information at all. I know more than them thanks to RQ.
So thanks RQ for all your time and effort – we would be lost without this blog.
I’ve just lost my stepfather suddenly over the weekend (my father in law also died New Years Eve). My stepfather was 83. He used to look at (and sometimes follow!) all the Asian babies and toddlers in the shopping malls and was fascinated with the idea of the adoption. Unfortunately he will never meet my DD. That is the reality of the wait.
LID April 2007.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:08 am
Actually, it was a sudden slowdown – but it happened in September 2005, not April 2007. I know because I was LID in September 2005, and had been tracking referrals pretty closely for about a year and a half before that. The referral rate had been 1:1, that is, a month of LIDs referred each month, during the period that I was watching. Then, in September 2005 it suddenly went to 15 days of LIDs referred that month – and stayed at that level for a number of months after. Eventually there were more slowdowns. But the big sudden one was the transition from summer 2005 to fall 2005.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Hi Ratgirl,
It was October of 2005 that got “half” the amount of referrals. September was a full month (28 days referred). October 2005 referrals included 19 days. I have the stats, as does RQ I am sure. We were LID in July 2005, and I watched and recorded the LID’s covered and number of days. It then “averaged” around 15 days until March 2006, when only 5 days were referred. April and May 2006 were also under 10 days. Then in June and July it went back up a little to 13 and 15 days.