Projections
First well take a historical look of how the raw numbers have fallen in the past as compared to this month. This chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that you can’t compare numbers from different polls. It’s like looking at a citywide map and statewide map and trying to say that an inch on this one took ten minutes so an inch on that one should take ten minutes. It doesn’t work. Still, you can get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone.
And then we look historically at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
And finally, here are my projections:
And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
August 18th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Hi RQ,
Thank you for your work. It is always interesting to read statistics and projections.
When will you do another poll for the year of 2006 LIDs?
August 18th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
RQ: I may be reading this wrong, but under the projections, haven’t we already seen the July and August referrals?
August 18th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
sllflorida, yeah the July should be September, etc. RQ probably just didn’t change the left hand side of the projection chart.
RQ, I want to thank you for this site. You barely have any time to yourself yet you still make time to do these charts and keep us all updated. This site has kept me sane for the past three years and I’m very appreciative!!
Nina
LID 2/06/06
http://www.journeytokavanna.blogspot.com
August 18th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
RQ…There is also a typo in the horrid case column of the projections…middle entry.
August 18th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Praying for a post Olympics speed up!
LID: 06/22/06
August 18th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
I realize that we have not seen a “Bad Case” in quite some time and I in no way expect us to get that far. But still, seeing our LID of 2/15/06 in the “Bad Case” Column for this next round is starting to make me nervous…
August 18th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
I can’t believe we ever thought “bad case” was that bad…..I’ll be jumping for joy if we can even make it into the “horrid case” column from here on out!
August 18th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Thanks RQ.
Unfortunately, I think we are looking at less than Spring small. It’s kind of sad to even see such a stat and its already happened twice.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
RQ, what are your thoughts on why the cut-off date was for 1-31 when it is doubtful there weren’t any LIDs that day?
Thanks for the graphs….not pretty but that’s how it’s been going.
August 18th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
OK – So this is my first log in. I was introduced to this site about 6 months ago, and our log in date is Feb 6, 2006. So we are really close now. Does anyone know if it is confirmed that CCAA was closed for Chinese New Year January 28- February 5th? And would’t this mean that Feb 6th is likely to be the next day up? Hope to hear from someone and good luck to all still waiting and wondering.
August 18th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
AAAARRRRRRGGGGGG,
2 months / year!!!!!
This is driving me crazy. Will it ever end?
August 20th, 2008 at 10:11 am
our lid is march 28, 2006 and i’ve been tracking days for the last year or so and, not to oversimplify, but since the referral batch in june 2007, ccaa on average has been getting through 6.07 days per monthly referral batch, ranging from 3 to 8. there are a lot of variables involved, but that is just another way to look at the numbers. let’s hope the pace picks up.