Projections
When I started making projections I labeled the columns based on numbers the CCAA was doing at the time. We had a Good and Bad Case projection, which later became a Good/Mid/Bad case scenario. But as the CCAA started referring less and less, we had to add columns. We added a Horrid case, and then this spring I had to add an even worse column, which I labeled with the time frame this time. I still want the original titles for continuity’s sake, but every month we have people who don’t understand the whole continuity thing. So, I’ve put dates in the other columns as well. The Good and Mid case scenarios were good a mere two years ago, in 2006, and actually into the beginning of 2007. Things have obviously gone rapidly downhill since then though, which is why the other columns became necessary.
This first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that you can’t compare numbers from different polls. Each poll has to stand by itself. Still, you can get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
And finally, here are my projections.
And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
December 13th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Ugh. Thanks RQ as always . Do you ever sleep???
December 13th, 2008 at 10:14 am
RQ, we really appreciate the systemic view you have of this otherwise consufin mess we are in. Thanks
December 13th, 2008 at 10:19 am
I woke up in a major funk this morning and seeing these projections actually gave me a glimmer of hope that we will see a referral in 2009. (our LID is April 21) On dark days I wonder if March will take all of 2009 but seeing it in May is nice.
And I know I have been hanging around here for too long when the tables make sense at first glance! No offense meant for you RQ, my brain just processes better with graphs. Thanks for all your work.
December 13th, 2008 at 10:54 am
We will make it to March next month. I just have a good feeling. Have a great weekend everyone!
December 13th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
With a LID of 03/21/06 it’s nice to see our log in date up there in projections as early as Feb! (of course I know that isn’t going to happen – but still – nice to see!)
Here’s hoping for a speed up in 09!!!
December 13th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
My predictions are about the same as RQs. I think they will finish Feb ’06 in Feb ’09 and the March group will be the first to hit 3 years and it will take a full year to refer March and April will be the first group to hit 4 years. The only difference in my projections than RQ’s is I think May will end at March 6th and June will be a one day batch of the 7th. I think the 7th is a heavy day and I’m not sure they will squeeze it in with the month before. March lid #s look to be the equivalent of 2 average months. CCAA referred 2 months of lids this year. With March being double the average month, referring only March in a year is like referring 2 months. But of course there is always hope, maybe a speedup???
That is what keeps us all in line and spending money to update paperwork. If I didn’t have any hope I would have been long gone.
December 13th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Ugh. Just wake me up in the Spring…..
December 13th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
WOW, we’ve (almost) made the “Prediction” chart!
- LID March 23 2006
December 13th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Just wake ME up in 2012. Or maybe 2014.
December 13th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
I am always impressed how you’re predictions turn out to be true. But now, I can’t believe what I am seeing! In my worst nightmare, it was not that bad. Let’s believe they’ll do better.
Thanks for being there!
December 13th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Can someone tell me where I can find the result of the last poll we completed few weeks ago? It’s not in Poll results.
Tks
December 14th, 2008 at 12:01 am
Anemone – it is in the November Archives, blog post on November 5th, I think.
December 14th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Wasn’t horrid winter ’07?
December 14th, 2008 at 10:44 am
sammarshall,
It would be horrid winter ’07/’08, but because winter does not begin until Dec. 20 or 21st the bulk of it is actually in ’08.
Make sense?
-akina
3/29/06
December 14th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Unfortunately I think the entire column of Spr 2008 Small is going to play out, and that it will definitely take all of 2009 to get thru March 2006. In fact, I think March 2006 will actually finish up in Jan or Feb 2010.
Nancy LID Nov. 09, ’06
December 14th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I have a bad feeling that we’re going to miss it by one day but I am really bad at betting and make predictions so I hope I am wrong.
Jo-Anne
2/28/06
Next or Next to Next
December 15th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
All I can say is that I am really bummed by this batch. I thought, I just *knew* that the 27th was going to be the cut off for the December batch. Emotionally, I held out hope for a SURPRISE until the very end.
You would think I would have learned better by now, 32 months and counting. :(
December 15th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
RQ thanks for all the hard work you put into this. It’s sad knowing that Feb is done yet. It’s horrible and I feel for all of those waiting like myself. I hope that the CCAA keeps up on their promise about a speed up in 2009 because we sure can use some good news.
Sherri
http://thejolivanafamily.blogspot.com
LID 08-08-06
December 15th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
oops Feb isn’t done yet
Sherri
December 15th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I’m with you Sherri. I’ve been so heartbroken lately. I just started a job at a school a few months ago. It makes me want to have children even more. I just want to take them all home with me! The years are quickly passing and I just had another birthday. Another Christmas without a child.
Usually I am ok but once in a while it hits me.