Projections
As I look at the new column labels on my projections, I have to wonder how things are going to look at the end of this year. I would love to see the marks in the second chart below start heading back towards what was projected in previous years. And I desperately hope that I don’t have to make another column.
This first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that you can’t compare numbers from different polls. Each poll has to stand by itself. Still, you can get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone.
Also, you can see that this referral was a decent amount bigger than the last three batches. We should keep in mind that the last couple of batches have included some expedited familes… but I don’t think there were that many expedited families.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
And finally, here are my projections.
And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
January 3rd, 2009 at 6:30 pm
It is so neat to see MY LID in the projection!!!
LID 3/27/06-
Thanks RQ for all you do!! This site has been a gift to me!
January 3rd, 2009 at 7:17 pm
Thank you RQ! It is so exciting to make it on the projections.
January 3rd, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Expedited referrals were only in the Dec. 11 batch for the Feb. 2007 LID families. Before that, there were expedited referrals in the Sept. 2 batch for the Jan. 2007 families. There were no expedited referrals for the 2 batches between Sept. 2 and Dec. 11.
January 3rd, 2009 at 7:40 pm
WWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOO HHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOO!!!!
Chinamama
LID 3.3.06 – Feeling (almost) confident enought to say – Im NEXT!!!!
January 3rd, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Ooops – missed out the apostrophe…but it means I can type it again – I’m NEXT!!!
January 3rd, 2009 at 7:55 pm
RQ – I see that you’ve estimated a couple of 1 day months. I know we’ve seen 2 day months before – have we ever had a 1 day month?
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:01 pm
WooHoo!!! We’re NEXT!!! I can’t believe that we are finally at this point!
MBG
3/1/06
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:13 pm
Yeah, the projection of 1 day batches for several months is freaking me out a little.
LID 3/21/06
January 4th, 2009 at 12:13 am
I must be dreaming…. RQ just projected my LID within 6 months…
January 4th, 2009 at 1:03 am
Wow, my LID is on the charts, I can hardly breathe….I guess it is really going to happen, I hope the batches are at least Winter horrid….that sounds so funny….YIIPPEE
January 4th, 2009 at 6:51 am
I remember way back in early 2008 when it was predicted that CCAA was only going to make it throw January and February of 2006 LIDs. Well it turned out to be true down to the day, how in the world can they predict that fare in the future down to the day , with out have set that as a target date is beyond me. Happy for the families that were formed in 2008. Hope there target for 2009 has a lot more then two months in it, and like every one, I also hope we start to see things turn around in 2009.
Glen http://www.2china4norah.blogspot.com
January 4th, 2009 at 10:24 am
oh my goodness……to see predictions inch slowly toward our 4/3/06 lid is painfully exciting and patience draining…..
AHHHH!!
thanks RQ for all that you do!
catherine
January 4th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Congratulation to the families up next! How exciting that must be. Question for anyone…what is an expedited referral?
January 4th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Norahs dad… I’m right there with ya. 2 months for all of 2008 and they knew that so far in advance… I’m happy for those who are getting close, but with a 9.21.06 LID its looking grim here. SN is not an option for us so we will wait it out, but at the rate we are going I might be mentally ill by the time we get a referral ;-)
January 4th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Chinamama,
I am terrified to say Next… but since you have said it I will follow your lead ;-)
Jm2B
3/3/06
January 4th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Hi all-
My wife and I have been looking over the projections table and could use some help on interpreting the data. We’ve been looking it over this data for an hour or so and we think that have a pretty good handle on it, but we don’t have a lot of experience with this webpage (this is my (our) first post))
Could someone pls provide feedback to let us know if we are interpreting the data correctly?
We are thinking that the first line of data in the projections table is describing projections for the first referral batch of 2009 (occurring probably in late Jan, early Feb 2009.)
For example, we think that the first data cell (”Mar 05″) of that line indicates that the Spring 2008 prediction has this Jan/Feb (09) referral batch placing adoptions for LID’s up through March 5, 2006.
Likewise, we think that next cell (”Mar 06″) means that the winter 2008 predictions (presumably “Wntr” means Jan/Feb 08 rather than Dec 08) had this same batch placing children for LID’s that occurred up to March 6, 2006.
We take the last cell on that line (”Mar 23″) to mean that the more optimistic of two 2006 predictions (We infer that since there are two 2006 prediction columns), had this Jan/Feb batch placing for LID’s that occurred as late as March 23, 2006.
FWIW, our LID is March 2007.
Thanks,
-dan
January 4th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
drsides: Yes, the various columns represent various projections. Going with what China has most recently been doing (since Spring ‘08), this is what Rumor Queen projects. If you’d like to be more optimistic and IF China gets beyond March 5, then that would put us into the other columns. All of us would love to see us get out of the first column and get back to the other columns consistently. They can do it and have proved they did so in the past – the only question is “will they in 2009?”
January 4th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Thanks for the reply, waitN4Grace!
I guess I am saying some that everyone on this list knows, but it’s abundantly clear from RQ’s backlog calculation post (http://chinaadopttalk.com/2007/06/24/the-backlog/) that referrals per month have actually reduced (dramatically so) at the same time that the dossier count has increased. Therein is the crux of the quandary.
On the one hand, I wonder what could cause this reduction in referrals per month. i.e. Was it a reduction in resources, or specific decision to throttle back the referrals?
If it was the former, then I fear that there is not much reason for optimism. If it was the latter (a decision), then… to your point.. we can hope that the powers that be will they decide to open the stops to allow more referrals per batch.
-dan
January 4th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
I am totally lost. I have never looked into this web site and yet we have a LID of July 2006. How do I understnad the predictions?
January 4th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
They are just basic spreadsheets and graphs, but here is an explanation.
The column headings on the last two graphics are the same. The second graphic shows the history, it tells you which column has been correct for each referral month (an X between columns means the cut off date fell between those columns). This graphic gives you an idea of how to read the one below it, the final graphic. But knowing how the history has performed, you have a better idea of how to read the graph that tries to project the future.
And the final graphic shows projections, what I’m projecting for the future. Since the CCAA moves their numbers around, I’ve had to play keep up with a moving number, adding columns to the left as the numbers of referrals per batch has gone down. Right now the “Spring 2008 Small” column is the most likely to be right, give or take some since I’m projecting at an average and some months they do a little more and some months they do a little less.
So, the most likely cut off for the referral we are waiting for (which should arrive in late Jan or early Feb) is March 5, and the most likely cut off for the batch following that (due to arrive in late February or early March) is March 6. But, if the CCAA does a little more than they have in recent history, then we could see March 6 and 8 (possible, but at this point not probable).
One final note for those who are new: I’m not projecting based on number of days per batch, my projections are based on the poll numbers. A page showing the poll results is linked under Site Navigation at the top of the right hand column.
January 4th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
I am so happy to see our LID on the projections!!! LID 3/27/08. I am thrilled to be starting the New Year with February referals behind us. I am praying that we will recieve our referal in the early summer.
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
January 4th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Normally I shout out a big Booooooooo! ….. but our March 23rd LID is finally on the chart!
Can it be real? Someone pinch me please!
January 5th, 2009 at 3:32 am
Hi! Haven’t been on here in FOREVER because I’ve been busy with our new one from China, but I have a question for RQ and anyone else who might want to take a stab at it…
What would you say (be honest; don’t sugarcoat) to someone wanting to start compiling a dossier today for NSN?????
I need to give my friend some advice, and since I’ve lost touch, I need some advice from all of y’all…
Thanks!
January 5th, 2009 at 8:39 am
p12 not that I find the situation funny but your Boooo’s alwase made me smile, It was somthing I bagan to look for.
glad you fillaly made the chart.
Thank you for making me smile on some of the hard days.
Glen
January 5th, 2009 at 8:56 am
rjk~my advice to anyone thinking about that would be RUN, & I do mean RUN in the other direction. Do not pass go! I hate to be quite that negative, but with an LID of 07/20/07 & having now been logged in seventeen months & sixteen days we are being told we could a total of five to seven years total & in good faith I just could not recommend to anyone that it would be a wise idea to start this process right now. UNLESS, their heart is completely set on China & they have the time & the patience to wait it out. If they started now (& everyone else can chime in here with their guess), but even if it speeds up once they get to the new regulations LID’s~someone starting now would still likely wait five years & that is if things go very well. I don’t have any big scientific explanation or prediction. I am just going off of my own experience & those that I am close to. Folks that were just referred this last round had waited just under three years & we are seeing many less days referred as the wait has continued to grow over the last three years, so common sense would tell us that we will wait considerably longer than their wait time of three years. I would just be honest with your friend about the facts. I think if someone is completely aware of what they will face & is aware of the reality of China in relation to IA & then they still want to jump in with both feet then, by all means they should do it. However, my conscious would not allow me to encourage a friend to do so unless I was certain that they knew the facts & the truth as those of us that are in the midst of it know all too well. Best wishes to your friend…& for that matter to all of us waiting as we head into the New Year.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:43 am
I’ve actually advised several people IRL about this. I tell them that if we were getting started now we would not look to China as a viable option. I explain the situation and then advise them to look at other programs, telling them I don’t know enough about the other programs to tell them what is the best fit, but that if I were to start researching I would probably start my research with Ethiopia.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Looking at the scatter of x’s on the past referrals chart…I see a kind of pattern leading to Aug 08…now that we are 6 months on the other side, maybe the x’s will begin a move to the right.
Seems as if we are due for a Smr 07 (bad) day soon.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
I’m finally waking up to the fact that after 4 years (since starting our paper chase) that this is really going to happen. We may have our little one’s picture by my 44th birthday in April-eek. May and June sound just fine too. We have been in a holding pattern for sooo long that the reality of it now is a bit of a shock. I started out so on fire and excited – telling everyone, shopping, dreaming, etc. but then as things slowed to a crawl, I think I chose the self protective route just in case things didn’t work out. But now… yeehaw- we better get passports and a nursery in order!
Moonpie
3/21/06
January 6th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Rumor Queen,
I was just reviewing what you wrote and wanted to ask… Do you mean that only one day of LIDs will be referred for rime between February and MArch?
January 6th, 2009 at 11:17 am
“rjk” I too have told people that I would not recommend adopting from China at this time. I think it is too unstable and I think it is too sketchy to START a Chinese adoption at this time. I get this sense that things are just not what they seem and I would hate for them to start and invest time and effort when every thing is one big speculation. The program, in my opinion is not what it was….