When
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 32, 31, 32, 28, 38, 28, 35, 22, 27, 37, 36, and 18 days.
The average is 30 days, the median is 32. We see 28 twice as well as 32.
If this were a normal month then the soonest we would expect to see them would be Friday January 16, the latest would be Thursday, February 5 and the most likely would be Wednesday, January 28.
However, this isn’t a normal month. I don’t know for sure when the CCAA’s last day before leaving for CNY will be, but I’m guessing it’s likely to be January 23rd. If they mail them on the 23rd then we should begin seeing them on January 26. So, I believe that the 26th is the most likely date.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Is the 18 day something that happens typically in Jan. – Dec.? Anyone have any idea – why this would be?
January 5th, 2009 at 11:35 am
As always…thank you RQ…love your deductive logic and thinking…looking forward to the 26th will circle the calender…
March 17, 2006 LID
January 5th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Does anyone know how long the CCAA is closed for the Chinese New Year?
Also, congratulations to the new parents! All of the children were precious!!
Susan
LID 06/10/06
January 5th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Theshaniaproject,
Most likely it’s so they can get out 2 batches before Chinese New Year which is in late January. CNY will probably cause the batch after this one to be a bit later than normal, so it all evens out in the end. There were 2 batches sent in Dec. 07, but they arrived around Dec. 5 and Dec. 31, so a bit further apart than the 18 days this December. I think it’s just a fluke.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
We are really hoping that referrals will be sent before CCAA closes for the CNY because we are NEXT!!!
Our agency’s email said that CCAA would be closed January 25 through the 1st.
Happy New Year, everyone!
MBG
3/1/06
January 5th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
RQ,
Thanks so much for everything! Any thoughts on if the TA’s for the most recent referrals will come before CNY starts? Thanks!
http://www.thehumblehumbleshome.blogspot.com
January 5th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Someone yesterday posted a question on the blog concerning expedited referrals. I didn’t see it answered then, so I’ll try to answer the question now, if that person is still reading. A dossier can be expedited if the couple has immediate Chinese heritage. Simply being Chinese is not enough if they are too many generations removed from having been from China. I’m not sure how many generations are allowed, but I think it’s only one or two. If you can claim the degree of Chinese heritage required, your dossier goes into a different (and shorter) line, so to speak. Expedited referrals are not sent out monthly like the regular NSN line. They’re only sent out every few months or so and it’s hard to predict when CCAA will next send an expedited batch. So, if you qualify for this, you won’t know exactly when your match will be included, but you can be assured that it will be much sooner than those waiting in the usual NSN line.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
luvbugsmom – my understanding is that you (or your spouse if married) have to have been born in China OR both grandparents on one side had to have been born there.