R3 for March 6th
We have three agencies confirming the cut off is March 6th. We have another agency telling their 3/7 people that they are not in this batch.
There are also some conflicting rumors, so at this point it’s an R3. I hope to be able to take it to an R4 later today. (The conflicting rumors aren’t very cohesive, everything from a cut off of the 3rd to the 8th, but they don’t come from multiple sources like the 6th rumor does.)
I agree with everyone yesterday who said that a backlog of only 12,000 doesn’t sound right. I’ll do the math on it later.
I have some meetings this morning but should be around this afternoon. If something breaks loose this morning put it in the comments but keep agency names out of it. I’ve pointed out in the past that if you are in a country with only a few agencies it is probably best not to name the country publicly, either.
Speaking of comments: I had turned the moderation controls back some to keep it from holding so many comments in the moderation queue, but a few pieces of spam got through that I had to delete, so I’ve put them back where they were. I don’t like that it’s catching so many comments right now, but it’s the only way to keep the spam from getting through to the comments. And it’s really bad spam, too. Some of it is run of the mill prescription stuff, but some of it is XXX rated stuff including animals and… well, ick.
February 27th, 2009 at 9:15 am
Thanks RQ for protecting us from icky animal stuff. Gross.
Congrats to all my fellow Marching Pandas who will hopefully be getting THE CALL soon!!!!!!
HURRAY!
Sarah
LID 3/1/06
February 27th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Break out the bubbley! Sounds like there are going to be many happy families if we get to 3/6/2006. I can’t wait to see the referral pictures and blogs. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
February 27th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Well…maybe some good XXX viewing (but maybe not involving animals…) would be a nice distraction until these referrals actually land! :)
February 27th, 2009 at 11:15 am
I think the 12,000 referred to Canadian waiting families — it was posted from a member in Canada.
February 27th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
I am so very happy for the families that are getting referrals and the families who are just that much closer!
I am just a little too far down the line though to be excited about only getting to the 6th – trying not to be negative but I was hoping for more.
As a P.S. to Carolina – that is the name I have picked out for my little girl!
February 27th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Congrats to everyone!!! I’m ready for a stork alert!!!! This might be a long weekend. I can’t wait to see photo’s.
LID3/27/06
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
February 27th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Congrats to everyone getting referrals! I am so happy for those of you getting the happy news and can’t wait to see the referral pictures.
On the other hand, I was really, really, really praying this would be the time that there were more referrals after the 1 day last month. At some point with the attrition rate and people switching to sn it would only stand to reason that it would speed up.
If they go to the 6th that means there is “only” 200 more days of referrals until they get to ours. And if we divide 200 days by the average monthly referral days of 5 we are left with 40 more months!!!….or 3 yrs and 4 months!!! As of today we have been logged in for 2 years, 5 months and 5 days!!!! That’s not even taking into account the 9 months to get our dossier completed and sent.
This would mean that if things continue at the same rate we are not even half way there with our LID of 9/22/06. I said I would wait as long as it takes and I’ve always believed that there is a reason for everything and for everything a reason but this is awful. It seems the closer we get the further away we are. Please, for everyone waiting, especially the children, let there be a speed up soon!
February 27th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
At least now I can finally say Im next… next … hopely everything will work out this time for us I want to congrats to all who is traveling soon and getting pics of their babies and we can finally see our little princess Abrianna pic next month..
February 27th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
I mentioned this in yesterday’s comments but want to say it again…
Isn’t it possible that 12,000 is the number of dossiers left for 2006 LIDS?
February 27th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
prayter – i would agreed except that number was included with other information that didn’t add up or make sense. so why would that one portion be correct in some way?
February 27th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
i’m happy for all who are next but the bubbly will be poping out whe the 24th is in
February 27th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
prayter Says:
That is what I suggested also this morning (European time)…
Doing my own maths, I thought there still may be 15.000 LID 2006 dossiers in line. So 12.000 might be a possible figure… but for total 2006 LID still applying.
Would love to have explainations on this by the canadian NGO that spread the rumor.
Best regards.
Marianne, from France
February 27th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Prayter-I agree that it very well could be what is left in 2006. If you subtract what they are doing this month and then next, which is what the agency said, they could have about 12,000 remaining. Canada only did about 2,000 adoptions from China in the last 2 years, so there is no way 12,000 is only for Canada.
February 27th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
The US has been steadily going downhill in the numbers from a high of nearly 8K in 2005 or so, and what, about 5K or so in 2007. I find it about impossible to believe that China will suddenly release the MOST EVER children for adoption… unless they are majority SN…
Which means that backlog really can’t move that fast… unless China’s willing to be the world’s biggest supplier of babies for the world again… and they’ve been pretty clear they didn’t care for that position.
February 27th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Thanks for the update, RQ. Have some questions, if anyone can help, it will be appreciated. We have reviewed the latest projection section. Will need the next set of referrals be considered for February or March? If it is March, then it looks like RQ is right on target with March 6. If February, then it looks like we are ahead of the projections. With a LID of 03/21/06, it does not look we are on the projections, yet. Any idea’s?
February 28th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
CCAA sends out referrals about every 30 days or so – they are not connected to a specific month. If you check out the stats, some months have “2″ batches of referrals… but you will see the month following may get “skipped”- it’s just that they come out roughly every month or so.
The ones coming “now” are indeed the March referrals.
If more referrals come at the end of March, those will be the “April” referrals whether they actually arrive in April or not.
RQ is pretty on track with the projections. We are not ahead in any way, shape or form. :(
I think with your LID you’re looking at mid to late summer or so for a referral.
February 28th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Can someone tell me exactly where to find the projections? I have tried to find them, but can’t. We are also trying to find information regarding the 3/7/06 numbers. People keep saying the 7th is big…how do you know? Can I look that up somewhere, too? With a 3/10/06 date, we’re trying to determine how much longer we might have to wait…I hope the next batch goes through the 10th, but it sounds like the 7th is big. Any thoughts?
March 1st, 2009 at 1:25 am
Waitingforholly
There are many projections such as;
http://chinaadopttalk.com/page/6/ &
http://chinaadopttalk.com/page/11/ & also
http://chinaadopttalk.com/page/17/
The LID numbers are alot more interesting and I cannot wait for another Poll. Poll Results for 2nd of November 2008 are: http://chinaadopttalk.com/page/20/
I found one from last year I hope this helps.
I still have a long wait ahead of me but some lucky AP’s will see photo’s of their little one’s soon
Toodles
Ju Ju
LID 21st/Feb/2008 for No: 2
March 1st, 2009 at 1:40 pm
waitingforholly –
On Rumor Queen’s main page, on the right hand side, click on “Poll Results”. This will bring up the last poll that RQ has done. You will see that there are a lot of RQ members that have the 3/7/06 LID.
My LID is 3/8/06 and I am expecting an April or May referral. I’m sure your’s will either be included in with mine or maybe the month after.
Hope that helps.
March 1st, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Thank you to Ju Ju and crespinjourney- I found the info:)
crespinjourney- I hope you get your referral soon…I’m inclined to agree that April or May is most likely. Thanks!
March 2nd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
waitingforholly – Thanks! I really hope it is April for BOTH of us!!!