Projections
I am not hearing from agencies that the CCAA internal box has changed. For the purposes of this post I am going to operate on the assumption that the cut-off was March 6th.
This first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison. Also, just an FYI, I will most likely do another daily poll next month, we’re about due for one.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
And finally, here are my projections.
For those who are spreadsheet-challenged: The second graph shows you the history, you see that the X’s in recent history are mostly in the Spring and Winter ’08 columns, or somewhere in between. So when you look at the bottom graph you would assume that if the CCAA follows this pattern that the next cut-off is likely to be between the 7th and 13th (inclusive). There have been some months worse than Spr ’08, but since the 7th represents a one day batch, we aren’t going to go there.
I’ve labeled the months based on phone calls happening at the end of one month or the beginning of the next. As long as referrals are so close to the beginning or end of the month it seems the least confusing way to do it.
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
March 4th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
It is the first time I have seen May in your projections….and I thank you!! :)
March 4th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
YES! May is in the projections! Wow it seems so surreal!
LID May 10, 2006
March 4th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
it’s really remarkable to look back over this chart and see that in almost two years the cut off dates have advanced only five months.
has anyone figured out (assuming this rate continues) how long it will take for wait times to exceed the average human life span?
March 4th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Boooooooooooooo!
…Oh, wait … March 23 is actually on the chart!
LID 3/23
March 4th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
RQ, FYI our China only agency sent an email out that said the CCAA announced the cut off was 3/6.
I also cannot believe it will take most of, if not all of, this year to complete March. That’s insane.
March 4th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
I am also a bit giddy that May has made it into the projections! We have not hit my LID yet- but atleast we are in my LID month! I hope to make it onto the projections before we hit the 3 year anniversary of our LID! :)
Thanks RQ!
5/29/06
March 4th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Hi Everyone
Congratulations on all the new parents!!!!
I thought there would be more photos this month as everyone keeps saying that March 2006 is so big. It seems very quiet compared to other months.
Louise
LID 06/02/06
March 4th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
RQ, I appreciate your projects chart. This gives us a great snapshot of what to expect based on several scenarios. But I’m curious; what do you really think will happen? Do you have a gut instinct of how things will go? Which column do you think is the most likely outcome?
I know it’s all speculation, but you’ve been doing this for so long and more than anyone else you have the most information there is (other than CCAA) — I’d be interested to know.
March 5th, 2009 at 12:27 am
RQ, why under the spring 08 column do you think that June/July will only be a one day batch? On the latest poll March 15th only has 25 families. Am I missing something?
Thanks for your projections.
March 5th, 2009 at 1:08 am
Were these last referrals classed as being Feb or March’s?
Weren’t they posted in Feb, for them to arrrive by the Monday in Aus. they would of had to be posted to the previous week ie/ Feb.
Can’t wait for the box to change.
March 5th, 2009 at 4:04 am
We’re thrilled to announce that we’re going to be parents soon! Please add us to the BABIES page as we’ve been waiting a long time to be there…
http://www.christinejohn.blogspot.com
March 5th, 2009 at 8:14 am
metonda – I said in the body of the post what I think is most likely.
shihtzu – I run it through a spreadsheet, and it’s not just based on that day, but on a formula that figures some other things in as well. I don’t have time to go back and look at specifics right now but I’m betting that the 14th was probably large and that would play into it. But if you have your own formulas and your math disagrees with mine you are more than welcome to use your figures instead of mine.
bornfromtheheart – As we’ve batted around here a thousand times before, I don’t try to make a square peg fit in a round hole. We could force them into being the February batch, but then we’d all have to talk about it and discuss it and debate it every second or third time someone brought it up. Using the principle of KISS, I classify a referral batch depending on when it arrived, when the first phone calls are made. So I will call this the March referrals. If we get another round of phone calls at the end of March then this one will become the early March referrals and that one will be the late March referrals. If this is the only referrals we see this month then it will just be the March referrals.