Three Years
I’ve updated the History Page, and we are now officially at a three year wait. We knew it was coming, so no one is surprised, but… it’s official now.
I have not heard that the CCAA box has changed yet, so the history page does not show the date for the box changing yet. I am assuming the cut off date is the sixth, and will use that date when I do the projections.
The review room stats also show us that March of 2007 spent more time in review than any other month since we’ve been keeping track.
I’m hoping to have time to get to the projections later today, but depending on what I get wrangled into doing at the meeting I’m about to walk into, it might be tonight before I have a chance. I really hope I can get to it today, my copy of the latest Cal Leandros book
Anyway, I’ll get to the projections as quickly as I can. I’m also planning to do the numbers exercise thing later in the week or maybe early next week, where you figure how many days a month you think they’ll do on average between now and your referral and then figure your referral based on those numbers.
I’ll also continue to update the Babies!!! post with other blogs if people post their blog in the comments to that post. Remember, it’s not just for new NSN referrals, if you are far enough along in a SN adoption (most agencies require PA or TA) and want to share your news you can, or if you want to share an international adoption from another country, or a domestic adoption in your own country, we all like seeing families being joined together. Or, I do, anyway. I guess I shouldn’t try to speak for everyone.
Happy Wednesday everyone!
March 4th, 2009 at 9:45 am
The lengthy review time is explainable and predictable if one can accept that for the past three years the CCAA has made a concious effort to target the first of the month to send out referrals, with the exception of working around the New Years holiday week.
March 4th, 2009 at 10:03 am
Thanks, RQ. My husband and I will be officially waiting three years this Saturday, 3.7.09, even thought we have a new LID and will have many more months to go. Very sobering, but seems that there might be an end in sight.
March 4th, 2009 at 10:08 am
The lengthy review time is likely because by all accounts, February is huge and March is even bigger, as people who were already paperchasing when the rumors of rule changes came out sped up as much as possible to get in before the rush before the rules.
February, March, and April of 2007 are all very large. There are estimates that those three months alone could easily be more than 12,000 dossiers.
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I’m done with one meeting, now heading to the next. This one is probably going to last a lot longer, unfortunately. Fridays are usually when I’m in meetings most of the day. I’m not sure I have the patience for this two days a week.
March 4th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
so it took roughly 15 months to go from 2 years to 3.
March 4th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Rumor Queen
You say that February, March, and April of 2007 are huge months. What does January of 2007 look like and from your best guess how long do you think it will take to get there? I promise I won’t hold you to your word. My agency doesn’t like to predict and I have so many people asking me this question. You are always right on and even though I don’t know you I have come to trust your word. You are probably what keeps me holding on every month because you are realistic and you say it how it is…..I appreciate that so much. So if you’ve got some grab at a guess could you let me know. I just am hoping for something here. It’s been nearly 26 months now and I am thinking it will be atleast another 24 months………..
LID 1/11/07
March 4th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
You can see the sizes of the months here:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2008/11/07/poll-results-month-sizes/
As for how long it will take to get to the January of 2007 LID, no one knows. There are rumors of a speed up, but at this point that is all that they are, rumors. I do not believe it will be less than a 3 year wait, as I don’t think the wait is going to start going down until we get into the LID’s where the new rules were in effect. And, it is likely it is going to be a good bit longer than three years. How much longer? I honestly don’t want to try to guess. The China adoption forecast site can tell you how long it will be if nothing changes, but that doesn’t help you if we see some changes between now and then.
March 4th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
I had never been to that China Adoption Forecast site, so I went. WOW. With a LID of 07/20/07 it says that they project for us…are you ready for this? AUGUST…get ready here it comes~are you sure you are ready? 2016!!!! Nope, no typo here. Based on the current state of things if there is no speed up they say August 2016!! This would be a NINE year wait!! So much for a nine month gestation period! Obviously, one would assume that there will be some sort of a speed up at some point due to new regs & attrition, but still the prediction is sobering, huh?
March 4th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Unless things are manipulated otherwise, things pretty much have to speed up once they get beyond the new regulations. I think the forecast site is likely pretty accurate (or as accurate as anything can be) for those LID before the regs (if nothing changes and things remain the same), but for those logged in after the new rules, it shouldn’t (theoretically) be as bad as the forecast site says.
March 5th, 2009 at 1:11 am
wow, this is all mind boggling. Frustrating too. But I remain hopeful for all those waiting. I won’t give up hope.
March 6th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
It is sobering. And depressing.
With an LID of 11.20.2006 the Forecast Site predicts 08.08.2013. This implies that we’ll wait just shy of 7 years! (which doesn’t take into account the year spent paperchasing)
I would never have chosen China if I’d known this when we started. Never in a million years.
It’s so very painful to wait this long to become a mother