Comments on: Three Years http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/ Join the Rumor Queen as she looks for the latest rumors and then analyzes them, trying to figure out what the CCAA will do next. Tue, 22 May 2012 21:53:11 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: wewait http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61432 wewait Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:42:05 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61432 It is sobering. And depressing. With an LID of 11.20.2006 the Forecast Site predicts 08.08.2013. This implies that we'll wait just shy of 7 years! (which doesn't take into account the year spent paperchasing) I would never have chosen China if I'd known this when we started. Never in a million years. It's so very painful to wait this long to become a mother It is sobering. And depressing.

With an LID of 11.20.2006 the Forecast Site predicts 08.08.2013. This implies that we’ll wait just shy of 7 years! (which doesn’t take into account the year spent paperchasing)

I would never have chosen China if I’d known this when we started. Never in a million years.

It’s so very painful to wait this long to become a mother

]]> By: mn2china http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61392 mn2china Thu, 05 Mar 2009 05:11:14 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61392 wow, this is all mind boggling. Frustrating too. But I remain hopeful for all those waiting. I won't give up hope. wow, this is all mind boggling. Frustrating too. But I remain hopeful for all those waiting. I won’t give up hope.

]]> By: RumorQueen http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61387 RumorQueen Thu, 05 Mar 2009 02:14:52 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61387 Unless things are manipulated otherwise, things pretty much have to speed up once they get beyond the new regulations. I think the forecast site is likely pretty accurate (or as accurate as anything can be) for those LID before the regs (if nothing changes and things remain the same), but for those logged in after the new rules, it shouldn't (theoretically) be as bad as the forecast site says. Unless things are manipulated otherwise, things pretty much have to speed up once they get beyond the new regulations. I think the forecast site is likely pretty accurate (or as accurate as anything can be) for those LID before the regs (if nothing changes and things remain the same), but for those logged in after the new rules, it shouldn’t (theoretically) be as bad as the forecast site says.

]]> By: JourneytoMia http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61386 JourneytoMia Thu, 05 Mar 2009 02:08:49 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61386 I had never been to that China Adoption Forecast site, so I went. WOW. With a LID of 07/20/07 it says that they project for us...are you ready for this? AUGUST...get ready here it comes~are you sure you are ready? 2016!!!! Nope, no typo here. Based on the current state of things if there is no speed up they say August 2016!! This would be a NINE year wait!! So much for a nine month gestation period! Obviously, one would assume that there will be some sort of a speed up at some point due to new regs & attrition, but still the prediction is sobering, huh? I had never been to that China Adoption Forecast site, so I went. WOW. With a LID of 07/20/07 it says that they project for us…are you ready for this? AUGUST…get ready here it comes~are you sure you are ready? 2016!!!! Nope, no typo here. Based on the current state of things if there is no speed up they say August 2016!! This would be a NINE year wait!! So much for a nine month gestation period! Obviously, one would assume that there will be some sort of a speed up at some point due to new regs & attrition, but still the prediction is sobering, huh?

]]> By: RumorQueen http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61379 RumorQueen Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:05:19 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61379 You can see the sizes of the months here: http://chinaadopttalk.com/2008/11/07/poll-results-month-sizes/ As for how long it will take to get to the January of 2007 LID, no one knows. There are rumors of a speed up, but at this point that is all that they are, rumors. I do not believe it will be less than a 3 year wait, as I don't think the wait is going to start going down until we get into the LID's where the new rules were in effect. And, it is likely it is going to be a good bit longer than three years. How much longer? I honestly don't want to try to guess. The China adoption forecast site can tell you how long it will be if nothing changes, but that doesn't help you if we see some changes between now and then. You can see the sizes of the months here:

http://chinaadopttalk.com/2008/11/07/poll-results-month-sizes/

As for how long it will take to get to the January of 2007 LID, no one knows. There are rumors of a speed up, but at this point that is all that they are, rumors. I do not believe it will be less than a 3 year wait, as I don’t think the wait is going to start going down until we get into the LID’s where the new rules were in effect. And, it is likely it is going to be a good bit longer than three years. How much longer? I honestly don’t want to try to guess. The China adoption forecast site can tell you how long it will be if nothing changes, but that doesn’t help you if we see some changes between now and then.

]]> By: erika http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61378 erika Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:21:21 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61378 Rumor Queen You say that February, March, and April of 2007 are huge months. What does January of 2007 look like and from your best guess how long do you think it will take to get there? I promise I won't hold you to your word. My agency doesn't like to predict and I have so many people asking me this question. You are always right on and even though I don't know you I have come to trust your word. You are probably what keeps me holding on every month because you are realistic and you say it how it is.....I appreciate that so much. So if you've got some grab at a guess could you let me know. I just am hoping for something here. It's been nearly 26 months now and I am thinking it will be atleast another 24 months........... LID 1/11/07 Rumor Queen

You say that February, March, and April of 2007 are huge months. What does January of 2007 look like and from your best guess how long do you think it will take to get there? I promise I won’t hold you to your word. My agency doesn’t like to predict and I have so many people asking me this question. You are always right on and even though I don’t know you I have come to trust your word. You are probably what keeps me holding on every month because you are realistic and you say it how it is…..I appreciate that so much. So if you’ve got some grab at a guess could you let me know. I just am hoping for something here. It’s been nearly 26 months now and I am thinking it will be atleast another 24 months………..
LID 1/11/07

]]> By: Noendinsight http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61375 Noendinsight Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:36:04 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61375 so it took roughly 15 months to go from 2 years to 3. so it took roughly 15 months to go from 2 years to 3.

]]> By: RumorQueen http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61374 RumorQueen Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:08:41 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61374 The lengthy review time is likely because by all accounts, February is huge and March is even bigger, as people who were already paperchasing when the rumors of rule changes came out sped up as much as possible to get in before the rush before the rules. February, March, and April of 2007 are all very large. There are estimates that those three months alone could easily be more than 12,000 dossiers. ----- I'm done with one meeting, now heading to the next. This one is probably going to last a lot longer, unfortunately. Fridays are usually when I'm in meetings most of the day. I'm not sure I have the patience for this two days a week. The lengthy review time is likely because by all accounts, February is huge and March is even bigger, as people who were already paperchasing when the rumors of rule changes came out sped up as much as possible to get in before the rush before the rules.

February, March, and April of 2007 are all very large. There are estimates that those three months alone could easily be more than 12,000 dossiers.

—–
I’m done with one meeting, now heading to the next. This one is probably going to last a lot longer, unfortunately. Fridays are usually when I’m in meetings most of the day. I’m not sure I have the patience for this two days a week.

]]> By: WaitingforScarlett http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61372 WaitingforScarlett Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:03:49 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61372 Thanks, RQ. My husband and I will be officially waiting three years this Saturday, 3.7.09, even thought we have a new LID and will have many more months to go. Very sobering, but seems that there might be an end in sight. Thanks, RQ. My husband and I will be officially waiting three years this Saturday, 3.7.09, even thought we have a new LID and will have many more months to go. Very sobering, but seems that there might be an end in sight.

]]> By: arw http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/03/04/three-years/comment-page-1/#comment-61371 arw Wed, 04 Mar 2009 13:45:55 +0000 http://chinaadopttalk.com/?p=2674#comment-61371 The lengthy review time is explainable and predictable if one can accept that for the past three years the CCAA has made a concious effort to target the first of the month to send out referrals, with the exception of working around the New Years holiday week. The lengthy review time is explainable and predictable if one can accept that for the past three years the CCAA has made a concious effort to target the first of the month to send out referrals, with the exception of working around the New Years holiday week.

]]>