Projections
I have a report of someone who appears to have been “skipped” this month. I believe that those who were “skipped” last month received their referrals this week. I’ve got skipped in quotes because last month it was a matter of the CCAA having that group logged in a few days later than the group were told they were logged in, so in the eyes of the CCAA they did not skip anyone, but in the eyes of the families they were very skipped. No word yet on a reason for the current group not getting their referrals.
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. We have the new poll on this one for the first time. Remember, each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
My projections:
At this point I’m using mostly the old poll for projections. Probably 90% the old poll and 10% the new poll. As the new poll gets more history that will go to 50/50 for a little while and then the new poll will be primarily used.
As for this batch, I am pleased that they completed the 14th, which was the second largest day of March. We have now cleared the top two days in March, both of which were doozies.
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:55 am
RQ,
Thanks for your compilations!
Do you think it is possible that this was a May/June combined batch and the next batch may not come until July 1st, or are you fairly confident that this was just a late May batch?
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:37 am
Thanks!
I’m feeling optimistic today!
May 23rd, 2009 at 11:07 am
I was probably the person you mentioned in your first paragraph about being skipped. Yesterday, my agency director double-checked a letter she got from the CCAA 3+ years ago, and she said it was clearly stamped “03/14/06″ as the LID. So this time, the CCAA seems to know my LID as 03/14/06…I’m hoping to hear good news after the director puts in a call to the CCAA.
May 23rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
I’m getting REALLY excited for a couple of close friends with LIDs of 3/21 and 3/22!!! WHOO-HOO!!!
May 23rd, 2009 at 12:56 pm
RQ, was it a whole group got skipped this time, or just one person?
Lucky7, I hope you get good news from your agency!
:)
wBw
May 23rd, 2009 at 1:07 pm
This is such a “joyfully sad” time of month. There are no happier moments than those when families connect for the first time, and we lucky extended family members get to see those connections and all the new baby pictures. The sadness, unfortunately, stems from not even seeing the numbers reach the horrid size in, it looks like, more than a year. Worse than that, no good size batch is still on the chart. Still, that’s being a Debbie Downer, and this is a time for great happiness. Congratulations to the many lucky Moms and Dads who can now see their babies’ faces for the first time. As always, thanks RQ. My girl has been home almost 2.5 years but this site allows me to stay connected to that great joy.
May 23rd, 2009 at 1:33 pm
I’m soooo glad we are mentioned in the September batch for the Small projection!! I’m counting on October but am not complaining about September :-)!
Woohoo come on CCAA match match match and give us a June batch like usual :-).
May 23rd, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Forgot to mention our LID 3/29 2006
May 23rd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Jaclyn I was wondering the same thing since the CCAA said they weren’t holding referrals due to the swine flu. Does anyone remember what happened when the held the referrals for SARS?
May 23rd, 2009 at 1:54 pm
The last couple of batches have fallen between the Spring 08 horrid and winter 08 bad….if that happens again we could be next!?! I just can’t believe it after all this time.
I am really starting to get excited!! Thank You RQ for all the information you provide us!!!
Waiting in Texas
3-21-2006
May 23rd, 2009 at 2:25 pm
I’m getting excited too -worst case scenario is now that we get our referral in JULY! That’s worse case – seems pretty good to me!! So, waiting in Texas, I’m with you – actually starting to get excited and feeling some nesting instincts kicking in – time to get cleaning and organizing!!
3-21-06
May 23rd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
It’s nice to see, even with the most horrid of projections that we’ll get out of March before the end of the year.
May 23rd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
And if they continue to do just a little bit better… We would be in!!! Hard to believe but so good to just imagine receiving THE call next month ;o)
Anemone
03.23.2006
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Jacyln, you are wondering what probably everyone is wondering. If you look at the grids, in December of 07, there were two batches 26 days apart. September of 08 had two batches 27 days apart. December of 08 at two batches a mere 18 days apart. The reason I gravitated toward months with two batches in them is because there clearly were less than 30 days between batches and I’m looking to find the smallest window. There was a late batch in January of 09 on the 22nd, but the next batch did not come in until 3/22. If we are LUCKY, we would see something in mid-June, but I’m going to be cautious and not expect anything until July. At some point, RQ will release her projection of “when” which will put some more analysis into it. This is just what I see at a quick glance of the dates. I would loooooove to be wrong though!
May 23rd, 2009 at 8:51 pm
It looks like a few people were “skipped” this time around, since my lid was checked in January due to an agency transfer I am very confident that my LID is March 9th. I should have some information later this week. Given that this is becoming more common everyone should have this in their mind that it could be a possibility. The CCAA timing may not be yours. I say this so you are more prepared when the phone call is not quite the information that you are expecting. And if it is good news more then likely you will be elated but prepared for other news should their be some delay.
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:09 pm
It seems that we may be in the same agency as Lucky7 as we too have no referral and our paperwork was also checked to assure that it was 3/14/06. It all checked out and CCAA is being contacted on Sunday evening (Monday in China). So that makes at least two and if we are with the same agency then it is probably at least 4 families. I feel like the whole situation with graceclaire and all the others might be coming back to give us heartache! We can only sit and wait through this long weekend. The only good news is that CCAA is open on Monday (no Memorial Day in China) and maybe we will get word. Looking at the clock it is less than 24 hours until the offices open again! I guess I will remain the anxious dad for another day and let’s hope nothing more! RQ and all the loyal families have been so supportive of each other. We need your support to help all of us as we try to get through these next few days! Thanks!
Anxiousdad
LID 3-14-06
Referral – ?? (Hopefully soon)
May 24th, 2009 at 3:37 am
FriendOf03152006LID: I think you miscalculated. The March batch actually came on 3/4 and not 3/22.
And… the didn’t miss one batch because:
arrival 12/10 was the December batch
arrival 12/29 was the January batch
arrival 1/23 was the February batch
arrival 3/4 was the March batch
So the referrals from this week we can consider as May batch and even if the next batch isn’t arrive until mid/end-June than that will still be a June batch. They’ve just moved the date from sending the referrals then.
May 24th, 2009 at 6:34 am
May is on a list!
As an aside, this upcoming week, most businesses in China will observe a two day holiday this week; the Dragon Boat (Tuen Ng), on Thursday & Friday.
May 24th, 2009 at 7:44 am
RQ, in ‘the projections’ I see that June has march 24 in the Smr- and in the Wntr case. Is that correct?
BTW, thans for your time and wordk! I appreciate it very much!
May 24th, 2009 at 10:58 am
RQ Your August projection includes Jul (July) 4. Is that correct?
May 24th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
What is in question chinapuccagirl is whether or not this was a combined batch. My agency said it is a possibility, although they do not know for sure, I’m not starting any rumors here, I’m just wondering what RQ thinks of that possibility and how probable.
My agency said it was possible that the May batch covered through the 13th and the June batch covered the 14th, which was a huge day and could have been a batch in and of itself.
I hope this was just the May batch and we will get another one in mid-June. However, I’m protecting my heart and I understand that this could have been a May/June combined batch and we may not see another one until the first week of July when they process the July batch.
May 25th, 2009 at 8:35 am
RQ, any estimates for when the sn shared list will come out again? Don’t forget about those families who are in the sn program.
May 25th, 2009 at 9:11 am
the_raudys – I did that just after the last list came out:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/05/04/when-waiting-child-shared-list-2/
May 25th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Thanks for directing me there. I somehow missed that one. I’d love for you to continue to track this list and look for any sort of pattern there. So many folks are now in the sn program now. Maybe it would be fun to do a Babies! post a few days after the sn list comes out. We all sure do enjoy those Babies posts and seeing people’s blogs. I know you include sn blogs when you do the nsn babies post. But, if there’s enough interest, maybe it would be cool to do a whole other Babies post specific to the sn list. I’d like to be able to celebrate with families more than once a month. :) All of us waiting families need all the encouragement we can get!
May 25th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Families can’t share information until they get PA or LOA, so doing it a few days after the list comes out wouldn’t accomplish anything, would it?
May 25th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
am a wee bit blue. large agency said that the wait may get up to four years before it starts to come down.