When
I’m not exactly sure where to start with the When post this month. So I’ll start with two possibilities.
- The referrals that arrived last week would have been mailed at the end of April if not for H1N1. The CCAA has been carrying on as normal since then, with no changes made to this batch once it was completed. They just held onto it until they were told they could mail it, keeping to their regular schedule.
- The CCAA continued to work on the current batch once they realized they weren’t going to mail it at the end of April.
If (1) is true then we should expect another batch at the end of May or first of June. If (2) is true then we’re probably about four weeks from another batch. Personally, I think (1) is more likely, but at this point there are no current rumors to validate either choice. If we look at past performance, then the actions during SARS would point to (1) being correct.
If we assume (1) is correct, and if we assume the batch would have arrived Monday May 4 if not for the pandemic stuff then we would expect the next batch to arrive between this week and Friday, June 12, with the most likely arrival between Monday, June 1 and Wednesday, June 3.
The most likely arrival date for those who believe they always arrive on the first of the month would be Monday, June 1.
If they are to arrive around June 1st then I would expect to see rumors this week.
If, by chance, (2) is the correct scenario, then we’d expect the next batch to arrive between Monday, June 8 and Monday, June 29, with the most likely date of arrival between Thursday, June 18 and Monday, June 22.
May 26th, 2009 at 8:07 am
Oooo…hoping it’s scenario 1! Allowing myself to dream of referral day and anticipating that it should happen sometime this July. Wheeee!
Thanks again for all you do RQ to take all the mish mash of information and present it to us so clearly!
Catherine
LID 03/23/06
May 26th, 2009 at 8:52 am
Lets keep our fingers crossed for #1.
May 26th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Holy Moly…I have so many butterflies in my stomach right now. I hope #1 comes to be. For those of you that have BTDT you know that feeling I have right now!! Knowing your next is an awesome feeling!!!
3-15-06
May 26th, 2009 at 9:22 am
I hope that 1 is the correct scenario. That would totally make my month.
B
LID 4/19/06
May 26th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Wasn’t there a post right as these referrals went into the mail that these had been held and was from the first of May? I think someone said their Canadian agency had shared that.
I am also REALLY pulling for #1.
waiting in Texas (and maybe next?)
LID 3-21-2006
May 26th, 2009 at 11:29 am
I’ll take door #1, please.
:-)
LID 03/15/06
May 26th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
1 would be AWESOME
May 26th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
DOOR #1,DOOR #1, DOOR #1!!!!!!
I do remember seeing the post from someone in Canada. I am crossing every body part possible!!!!! Bring on more referrals…Please!!!
LID 3-27-06
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
May 26th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Little Mary Sunshine here, just logging in to report that I learned this morning that we were skipped, again. Also, our agency apparently has a whole batch of “3/14s” skipped because they turned out, despite official notice at the time, really to have been 3/23.
I have no further comment at this time. At least, not outside the cussing threads.
May 26th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
#1 would be AWESOME!!! Fingers crossed for all the oh-so-close families!
May 26th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Yes as Little Mary Sunshine notes it seems like there is a lot more flex in the Log in Dates. It does not seem to matter that we think we have official dates even when they are checked and double checked. The “floating log in date” seems to be a much more commen occurance of late as it pertains to matches. It would be helpful to understand why this is happening?
May 26th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
The LIDs are not only dependent on someone from China giving the correct date, but they also (obviously) depend on the person at the agency giving the correct information. Our agency coordinator told me our LID was April 14, 2007. I KNOW I heard her correctly, but when I spoke with someone else in our agency, she heard April 17, 2007. Last year, I called our agency coordinator to verify the LID, and the SAME person told me April 15, then I had her check again, and she called me back with April 17. Point is, information is only as valid as the person giving it.
To this day, I’m stumped as to what day our LID is, so I’m going with April 14-17….And all that’s assuming the coordinator heard the interpreter semi-correctly.
May 26th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
“tarashyrn Says:
May 26th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Holy Moly…I have so many butterflies in my stomach right now. I hope #1 comes to be. For those of you that have BTDT you know that feeling I have right now!! Knowing your next is an awesome feeling!!!
3-15-06″
Like you, I missed it by one day and KNOWING that you are next brings a strange sense of peace and, for me, a thawing of the emotions I kept frozen as a way of dealing with the wait.
M2I
http://www.MyChineseShamrock.blogspot.com
May 26th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Does history show that people are getting skipped every month?
May 26th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Okay,
Am I the only one that read the above scenarios from a different perspective?
If the option is #2, doesn’t that mean that, in addition to the delay in the date of the next set of referrals, the total number of referrals in this current batch is skewed (in that they are not really indicative of the number that would normally come out in a month’s worth of time?) Translation: not only will the date for referrals be later, the total number will be smaller.
Does that make sense? Did anyone else read it that way?
[Clearly...Door One is the preferred!] Come on Vanna… You know which one to pick!!
M2I
http://www.MyChineseShamrock.blogspot.com
May 26th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
FriendOf03152006LID- yes recent history would show that this batch and the one prior had “skips” in it. As you can see from some of the other reports here now we are on double skips. I can only imagine the frustration of a double skip…. Also we have had some pull aheads like last months March 9th group. So to me something is going on weather it is to balance matches with paper ready kids, agnecy travel costs or something. In my case I was a batch of one so perhaps they did not have a single child anywhere. I do not want to say that it is the norm but for sure it seems more commen of late. So next is not allways next as a few of us have experienced.
May 26th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
So hoping for option 1!
Thanks RQ.
Dreaming OC…
4/13/07
http://www.faithhopeandlove-fhl.blogspot.com/
May 26th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Out of curiosity has anyone heard of TA’s being received this week???
I am praying for everyone to receive referrals and hope #1 is true, but for those of us who have been blessed to receive a referral the time waiting for TA seems to have lengthened and would like to know if things are moving along for travel. Please share with all of us if your agency or chat group has anounced that they have received TA’s. Thanks.
May 26th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
MeiMeiAvery (or as you call yourself, “Little Mary Sunshine”), we must be at the same agency, or we have two different agencies that have run into the same bad luck. For me, I was clearly told 3/14/06 as my LID, 3+ years ago, and again within the past week. The agency had good reason for reporting this date to me – it was in a letter from the CCAA.
The agency director spoke with the CCAA over the weekend. The CCAA admitted their error – while the documents were stamped with LID of 03/14/06, they got entered into the computer system with a LID of 03/23/09. However, they are not giving us special consideration for an immediate referral based on their error.
So, Little Mary Sunshine, I feel your pain, confusion, exhaustion, depleted bank funds, etc….
May 26th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
RQ,
I have no idea if this information is going to be helpful to you, but I’ll tell you anyway.
Our LID is 3/10/06. We received our referral package from our agency on Friday (5/22). It took until today for me to notice that on our Seeking Confirmation Letter, there is a “stamp” (kind of an official seal looking thing) from the China Center of Adoption Affairs. On the stamp, there is a date. The date is 2009/05/18. Whether or not the matching was compeleted in April is beyond me, but it appears that our SCL was not completed until May 18th.
I let you try to decifer if that is relevent information that can used to help determine “when?” for the next batch.
By the way….our daughter is a BEAUTIFUL, 8 month old from Chongqing Municipality.
May 26th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Lucky7 – I just cant believe it ! I am so sorry for you. I trust that your agency and CCAA will come up with an arrangement…
May 26th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
With an LID of 3/17/06…holding my breath for option #1…!! Maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
May 27th, 2009 at 3:39 am
I am presently in Nanchang and just got my daughter 3 days ago, beautiful little girl! What I can tell you is that they are taking everyones temperature 2-3 times as they arrive in every airport and they put one dad in the hospital as he had a slightly elevated temp.(not swine flu as they confirmed), but he did miss gotcha day, China is very serious about swine flu and foreign arrivals. I would not want to make it this far and then be sent to a hospital for days or weeks. http://www.babysites.com/sites/4everannalise/?seq=1
May 27th, 2009 at 5:26 am
I have been thinking today at the Opera House here in Sydney having found myself walking with a group of Asian tourists many of whom were wearing masks, whether we would be wise when traveling to adopt to wear masks whenever in public. It appears to me that culturally and healthwise it would be sensative to their anxieties and create some reassurance that we are taking this issue seriously. Also I have heard today on the radio from a woman who did the reseach that even within a household, people wearing masks greatly reduces the spread of flu.
LID 3/23/06
May 27th, 2009 at 9:23 am
Lucky7 — Yes, I am sure we are with the same agency as that’s exactly the situation that was described to me yesterday. Please PM me if you’d like to talk more — I searched for you on the forum but couldn’t find you. (And, by the way, I am meimeiavery — “Little Mary Sunshine” was a weak attempt at sarcastic humor yesterday, when I was about as low as I’ve been through this whole three-plus-year wait.) In any case, hugs to you and I am so sorry.